The document discusses the Indian telecom sector and provides recommendations. It notes that competitive intensity is declining as smaller players focus on profitable growth, with the number of players consolidating to 6-8 from more previously. Incumbents have gained market share while being rational in the market. Realizations should increase over the medium term as freebies are withdrawn and data usage rises. The document recommends Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications as preferred stocks based on valuations offering 30-40% upside over the next 12-18 months. It notes regulatory issues still need to be addressed and questions Reliance Infotel's entry strategy.
The daily equity report summarizes the performance of the Indian and global stock markets. The Indian equity benchmark ended over 1% lower due to concerns over escalating inflation from high oil prices. In India, shares of MTNL surged 8% on news of government revival steps, while globally, Asian and European markets were mixed in cautious trading awaiting the outcome of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy statement. The report also provides analysis on market movers, sector indices, FII/DII activity levels, and notable company news like fund raising plans.
The document provides an analysis and initiation of coverage on Systems Limited (SYS) with an "Outperform" rating and target price of Rs100.5/share by December 2016. Key points include:
- Improving security and government focus is expected to boost Pakistan's growing IT exports industry, of which SYS is well positioned being specialized in outsourcing and IT solutions.
- Accelerating digitalization of public sector and rising local tech landscape like broadband/mobile will further support domestic IT growth. SYS has a leading role in government projects.
- SYS is diversifying geographically with a growing Middle East presence and plans to expand in other regions.
- Successful launch of new payment
The Indian equity market ended lower after hitting record highs for four straight sessions, due to profit taking following disappointing trade deficit data. The trade deficit in May widened to $11.23 billion from $10.1 billion in April. IT stocks rebounded from losses as Infosys gained 4% and TCS rose 2%. State banks saw buying interest in anticipation of a potential merger by the State Bank of India. Globally, Asian markets were mixed as growth forecasts were cut by the World Bank, while European stocks slipped on widening bond yields between the eurozone and US.
If we begin with consensus recommendations, we can see that the bottom-up country relative consensus recommendations and analysts’ recommendations have been gradually improving over the past five years. Certain analysts are now calling the country a “Buy”.
Learn more about how to benefit from our Watching the Street charts: http://becomeabetterinvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
In the bottom-up country consensus recommendations India hasn’t been a “Buy” in Asia for the past five years. Recently, however, it has gotten stronger recommendations and moved to “Neutral” from “Sell.”
Learn more about how to benefit from our Watching the Street charts: http://becomeabetterinvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
- Indian markets rose on Monday as investors welcomed news that European leaders pledged to strengthen banks and resolve the sovereign debt crisis.
- Telecom and real estate stocks performed well while pharma was the only sector to decline.
- Asian markets rose on Tuesday following gains in Europe and the US. The Indian market is expected to open positively but may see some caution ahead of domestic economic data releases.
The document discusses the performance of Indian equity markets in 2019. It notes that large cap indices saw returns of 2-7% for the year to date, while mid and small cap indices lagged with returns between -10% and -8%. There was significant variance in performance across sectors, with energy, IT, real estate and financials outperforming, while healthcare, materials, utilities and consumer discretionary underperformed. The document also discusses the DSP Focus Fund, a concentrated, multi-cap equity fund that seeks to generate superior returns through high conviction stock picking across sectors.
Bharti Airtel merged with its wholly owned subsidiary Wireless Business Services Private Limited (WBSPL) in October 2013 by acquiring a 100% stake. The merger was aimed to expand Airtel's services and market share by gaining access to WBSPL's spectrum. Projected financial statements for WBSPL after the merger show a positive profit after tax starting in 2015. Key assumptions for the financial forecasts include 10% annual revenue growth and 5% annual cost of goods sold growth based on expected economic conditions. The total projected value of WBSPL after 5 years as a result of the merger is Rs. 9,182.38 crore.
The daily equity report summarizes the performance of the Indian and global stock markets. The Indian equity benchmark ended over 1% lower due to concerns over escalating inflation from high oil prices. In India, shares of MTNL surged 8% on news of government revival steps, while globally, Asian and European markets were mixed in cautious trading awaiting the outcome of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy statement. The report also provides analysis on market movers, sector indices, FII/DII activity levels, and notable company news like fund raising plans.
The document provides an analysis and initiation of coverage on Systems Limited (SYS) with an "Outperform" rating and target price of Rs100.5/share by December 2016. Key points include:
- Improving security and government focus is expected to boost Pakistan's growing IT exports industry, of which SYS is well positioned being specialized in outsourcing and IT solutions.
- Accelerating digitalization of public sector and rising local tech landscape like broadband/mobile will further support domestic IT growth. SYS has a leading role in government projects.
- SYS is diversifying geographically with a growing Middle East presence and plans to expand in other regions.
- Successful launch of new payment
The Indian equity market ended lower after hitting record highs for four straight sessions, due to profit taking following disappointing trade deficit data. The trade deficit in May widened to $11.23 billion from $10.1 billion in April. IT stocks rebounded from losses as Infosys gained 4% and TCS rose 2%. State banks saw buying interest in anticipation of a potential merger by the State Bank of India. Globally, Asian markets were mixed as growth forecasts were cut by the World Bank, while European stocks slipped on widening bond yields between the eurozone and US.
If we begin with consensus recommendations, we can see that the bottom-up country relative consensus recommendations and analysts’ recommendations have been gradually improving over the past five years. Certain analysts are now calling the country a “Buy”.
Learn more about how to benefit from our Watching the Street charts: http://becomeabetterinvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
In the bottom-up country consensus recommendations India hasn’t been a “Buy” in Asia for the past five years. Recently, however, it has gotten stronger recommendations and moved to “Neutral” from “Sell.”
Learn more about how to benefit from our Watching the Street charts: http://becomeabetterinvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
- Indian markets rose on Monday as investors welcomed news that European leaders pledged to strengthen banks and resolve the sovereign debt crisis.
- Telecom and real estate stocks performed well while pharma was the only sector to decline.
- Asian markets rose on Tuesday following gains in Europe and the US. The Indian market is expected to open positively but may see some caution ahead of domestic economic data releases.
The document discusses the performance of Indian equity markets in 2019. It notes that large cap indices saw returns of 2-7% for the year to date, while mid and small cap indices lagged with returns between -10% and -8%. There was significant variance in performance across sectors, with energy, IT, real estate and financials outperforming, while healthcare, materials, utilities and consumer discretionary underperformed. The document also discusses the DSP Focus Fund, a concentrated, multi-cap equity fund that seeks to generate superior returns through high conviction stock picking across sectors.
Bharti Airtel merged with its wholly owned subsidiary Wireless Business Services Private Limited (WBSPL) in October 2013 by acquiring a 100% stake. The merger was aimed to expand Airtel's services and market share by gaining access to WBSPL's spectrum. Projected financial statements for WBSPL after the merger show a positive profit after tax starting in 2015. Key assumptions for the financial forecasts include 10% annual revenue growth and 5% annual cost of goods sold growth based on expected economic conditions. The total projected value of WBSPL after 5 years as a result of the merger is Rs. 9,182.38 crore.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd equity research report initiates coverage with a Buy rating and target price of Rs. 1474.96, representing 13% upside potential. The report cites MSIL's cheaper valuation compared to 30% expected EPS growth over two years. It also notes MSIL's dominant market share in India's car market and plans to increase production capacity. Globally, the report expects slow economic growth and stressed government finances for several years. Key risks include higher input costs and a slowing global economy.
- Indian stock indices edged up, led by gains in blue chip stocks on hopes the central bank would ease monetary policy to boost economic growth.
- Financial Technologies and Reliance Capital shares increased after announcements about transactions involving increasing ownership stakes in their companies.
- Asian stocks rose after US economic growth data reduced concerns about slowing global growth, while European shares also climbed on expectations of more eurozone monetary stimulus.
The document provides an overview and analysis of various financial markets in India from the perspective of ACMIIL, including:
- Equity markets are consolidating after reaching new highs in July. Nifty faces resistance at 5850 and support at 5620-5610. IT, FMCG and pharma sectors have outperformed while banking, metals and realty have underperformed.
- Exide Industries is recommended as a stock pick due to expectations of strong growth in the replacement auto battery segment and improved revenue mix driving margin expansion.
- Pfizer India is recommended due to its large cash reserves which could be used for acquisitions to accelerate growth, and an attractive valuation of around 14 times estimated
HCL tech’s decent level of utilization, focused on cost control andutilization of new market opportunities through vendor’s consolidation would provide a new shape to the company in near future. Narnolia Securities Limited retain BUY onthe stockand revised our target price from Rs 1560 to Rs 1650.
Q4FY14 Result: Bajaj Finance continues to reap the benefits of healthy consum...IndiaNotes.com
Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a 11% year-over-year increase in 4QFY14 profit at INR1.82 billion, which was below estimates due to a decline in net interest margins from shifting loan mix to lower-yielding mortgages and higher operating expenses from ongoing investments in new business lines. Asset quality remained healthy with non-performing assets stable at 1.18% despite a corporate loan slippage. The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of INR2,018, but reduces FY15/16 earnings estimates by 5-6% to factor lower margins and higher costs from the loan mix shift and investments.
The daily report provides market updates for December 26, 2019 including:
- The Sensex and Nifty indexes closed lower by 0.44% and 0.39% respectively.
- Yes Bank, Cipla, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and ONGC were top gainers on the Nifty while BPCL, HCL Tech, Reliance, UPL and Eicher Motors saw losses.
- Global markets were mixed with the DJIA up 0.34% and most other indexes seeing little change.
- Tata Motors is recommended as a buy, with a 12-month target price of Rs. 410 per share.
- Tata Motors leads the growing electric vehicle market in India and will benefit from government policies supporting EVs.
- The company saw strong revenue growth in passenger vehicles in FY21 and a return to pre-pandemic levels for commercial vehicles.
- Cost optimization measures have improved margins at both Tata Motors and Jaguar Land Rover, its largest subsidiary.
The document compares the cash flow statements of Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular for the years ended March 31, 2017 and March 31, 2016. For both companies, there was a cash inflow from operating activities but an outflow from investing activities, indicating that the cash generated from operations was not enough to cover capital expenditures. Airtel and Idea both had a cash inflow from financing activities in 2017 through borrowing, but Idea had an outflow from financing in 2016. Despite losses in 2017, Airtel maintained the largest market share of wireless subscribers in India as of December 2017.
TCS’ 1QFY15 revenue grew 5.5% QoQ to USD3.6b (and 4.8% QoQ CC), in line with estimate. EBITDA margin declined 210bp QoQ to 28.8%, v/s estimate of 29.2%. EBIT margin (26.3%) was lower than est. (27.6%) due to a one-time depreciation charge.
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (MMFSL) provides an overview of its business in the document. Key points include:
- MMFSL is a leading non-banking finance company focused on rural and semi-urban markets in India, with over 1,100 offices across the country.
- It offers financing for new and used vehicles like cars, tractors, and commercial vehicles. It also provides SME financing and personal loans.
- The auto industry in India is expected to grow in the long-term due to rising incomes, urbanization, and increasing vehicle penetration compared to other countries.
- MMFSL is majority owned by Mahindra and Mahind
The daily equity report from CapitalStars Financial Research provides an overview of the Indian and global stock markets. In India, the key indices ended higher led by gains in pharmaceutical stocks like Lupin and Ranbaxy after their better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Asian markets closed mixed while European shares rose. In the Indian market, Sun Pharma, Cipla and Tata Power were the top gainers while Lupin, Bharti Airtel and HeroMotoCorp lost the most value.
The document is a daily market report from November 8, 2019 published by www.tradenivesh.com. It includes the following key information:
- Indian equity indices ended higher led by gains in Infosys and HDFC. The Sensex closed up 0.53% and the Nifty ended up 0.38%.
- Top gainers were IndusInd Bank, Infosys and HDFC while top losers were UPL, YES Bank and GAIL.
- Technical recommendations were given to sell Nifty futures below 12,030 and Bank Nifty futures below 30,600. PEL futures were recommended to sell below 1,785 while Havells futures were recommended to buy above 717.
Mutual fund schemes witnessed large redemptions in September 2019, with an outflow of Rs. 1.52 lakh crore compared to an inflow of Rs. 1 lakh crore in August. Debt schemes saw significant outflows of Rs. 1.58 lakh crore, primarily from liquid funds which saw redemptions of Rs. 1.41 lakh crore. Equity schemes saw a net inflow of Rs. 6,509 crore despite market rallies. Total AUM of the mutual fund industry declined 3.8% to Rs. 24.51 lakh crore in September due to large corporate redemptions for tax payments. SIP contributions remained steady at Rs. 8,
The document is a daily market report from www.tradenivesh.com dated December 2, 2019. It provides an overview of the performance of key stock indices in India and globally, top gainers and losers among Indian stocks, commodity prices and other market news. Major Indian indices like Sensex and Nifty closed lower by around 1% each. Sectoral indices like Nifty Media and PSU Bank were also down over 2%.
L&T has announced orders worth ~Rs300bn for the quarter against reported order inflow of Rs334bn in Q1FY15. Order flow announced in the current quarter has been dominated by domestic orders which constituted 74% of orders against 44% in Q1FY15. Maintain buy.
- The Indian stock market edged higher on hopes that upcoming company earnings and auto sales will show continued economic growth. The central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged had little impact.
- Several Indian companies saw share price movements, including Muthoot Finance declaring an interim dividend, ABB India winning a large contract, and PC Jeweller expanding into e-commerce by partnering with Flipkart.
- Tyre company stocks rallied on falling rubber prices, while housing company HDIL rose after shareholders revoked pledged shares.
The Indian equity markets ended the week on a mixed note, with the Sensex declining 0.89% while the Nifty closed 0.80% lower. Several companies such as Everest Industries, Emami, Gati, Visaka Industries, Equitas Holdings and Shoppers Stop have their concall scheduled for today. The markets will continue to watch out for developments around the French elections and movement in US bond yields.
Special report by epic research of 30 january 2018Epic Research
Epic Research provides special report of the stock market in each segment that helps the traders to get a better overview of the market daily movements. Our aim is to serve quality services to the customers and fulfil their profit objective.
- ONGC has guided for modest production growth in oil and gas over the medium term from projects in western offshore and Krishna Godavari basin. New gas projects like Daman and Vashishta are expected to start production over the next few years and together contribute 4 bcm of gas between FY15-17.
- ONGC's major development projects are viable at current oil prices of $50-60/bbl and domestic gas prices. A new upstream subsidy mechanism is expected to reduce the subsidy burden on ONGC when oil prices are below $60/bbl.
- ONGC remains a core holding given its role in India's energy security and potential to grow production from new projects over the
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd equity research report initiates coverage with a Buy rating and target price of Rs. 1474.96, representing 13% upside potential. The report cites MSIL's cheaper valuation compared to 30% expected EPS growth over two years. It also notes MSIL's dominant market share in India's car market and plans to increase production capacity. Globally, the report expects slow economic growth and stressed government finances for several years. Key risks include higher input costs and a slowing global economy.
- Indian stock indices edged up, led by gains in blue chip stocks on hopes the central bank would ease monetary policy to boost economic growth.
- Financial Technologies and Reliance Capital shares increased after announcements about transactions involving increasing ownership stakes in their companies.
- Asian stocks rose after US economic growth data reduced concerns about slowing global growth, while European shares also climbed on expectations of more eurozone monetary stimulus.
The document provides an overview and analysis of various financial markets in India from the perspective of ACMIIL, including:
- Equity markets are consolidating after reaching new highs in July. Nifty faces resistance at 5850 and support at 5620-5610. IT, FMCG and pharma sectors have outperformed while banking, metals and realty have underperformed.
- Exide Industries is recommended as a stock pick due to expectations of strong growth in the replacement auto battery segment and improved revenue mix driving margin expansion.
- Pfizer India is recommended due to its large cash reserves which could be used for acquisitions to accelerate growth, and an attractive valuation of around 14 times estimated
HCL tech’s decent level of utilization, focused on cost control andutilization of new market opportunities through vendor’s consolidation would provide a new shape to the company in near future. Narnolia Securities Limited retain BUY onthe stockand revised our target price from Rs 1560 to Rs 1650.
Q4FY14 Result: Bajaj Finance continues to reap the benefits of healthy consum...IndiaNotes.com
Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported a 11% year-over-year increase in 4QFY14 profit at INR1.82 billion, which was below estimates due to a decline in net interest margins from shifting loan mix to lower-yielding mortgages and higher operating expenses from ongoing investments in new business lines. Asset quality remained healthy with non-performing assets stable at 1.18% despite a corporate loan slippage. The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of INR2,018, but reduces FY15/16 earnings estimates by 5-6% to factor lower margins and higher costs from the loan mix shift and investments.
The daily report provides market updates for December 26, 2019 including:
- The Sensex and Nifty indexes closed lower by 0.44% and 0.39% respectively.
- Yes Bank, Cipla, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and ONGC were top gainers on the Nifty while BPCL, HCL Tech, Reliance, UPL and Eicher Motors saw losses.
- Global markets were mixed with the DJIA up 0.34% and most other indexes seeing little change.
- Tata Motors is recommended as a buy, with a 12-month target price of Rs. 410 per share.
- Tata Motors leads the growing electric vehicle market in India and will benefit from government policies supporting EVs.
- The company saw strong revenue growth in passenger vehicles in FY21 and a return to pre-pandemic levels for commercial vehicles.
- Cost optimization measures have improved margins at both Tata Motors and Jaguar Land Rover, its largest subsidiary.
The document compares the cash flow statements of Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular for the years ended March 31, 2017 and March 31, 2016. For both companies, there was a cash inflow from operating activities but an outflow from investing activities, indicating that the cash generated from operations was not enough to cover capital expenditures. Airtel and Idea both had a cash inflow from financing activities in 2017 through borrowing, but Idea had an outflow from financing in 2016. Despite losses in 2017, Airtel maintained the largest market share of wireless subscribers in India as of December 2017.
TCS’ 1QFY15 revenue grew 5.5% QoQ to USD3.6b (and 4.8% QoQ CC), in line with estimate. EBITDA margin declined 210bp QoQ to 28.8%, v/s estimate of 29.2%. EBIT margin (26.3%) was lower than est. (27.6%) due to a one-time depreciation charge.
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (MMFSL) provides an overview of its business in the document. Key points include:
- MMFSL is a leading non-banking finance company focused on rural and semi-urban markets in India, with over 1,100 offices across the country.
- It offers financing for new and used vehicles like cars, tractors, and commercial vehicles. It also provides SME financing and personal loans.
- The auto industry in India is expected to grow in the long-term due to rising incomes, urbanization, and increasing vehicle penetration compared to other countries.
- MMFSL is majority owned by Mahindra and Mahind
The daily equity report from CapitalStars Financial Research provides an overview of the Indian and global stock markets. In India, the key indices ended higher led by gains in pharmaceutical stocks like Lupin and Ranbaxy after their better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Asian markets closed mixed while European shares rose. In the Indian market, Sun Pharma, Cipla and Tata Power were the top gainers while Lupin, Bharti Airtel and HeroMotoCorp lost the most value.
The document is a daily market report from November 8, 2019 published by www.tradenivesh.com. It includes the following key information:
- Indian equity indices ended higher led by gains in Infosys and HDFC. The Sensex closed up 0.53% and the Nifty ended up 0.38%.
- Top gainers were IndusInd Bank, Infosys and HDFC while top losers were UPL, YES Bank and GAIL.
- Technical recommendations were given to sell Nifty futures below 12,030 and Bank Nifty futures below 30,600. PEL futures were recommended to sell below 1,785 while Havells futures were recommended to buy above 717.
Mutual fund schemes witnessed large redemptions in September 2019, with an outflow of Rs. 1.52 lakh crore compared to an inflow of Rs. 1 lakh crore in August. Debt schemes saw significant outflows of Rs. 1.58 lakh crore, primarily from liquid funds which saw redemptions of Rs. 1.41 lakh crore. Equity schemes saw a net inflow of Rs. 6,509 crore despite market rallies. Total AUM of the mutual fund industry declined 3.8% to Rs. 24.51 lakh crore in September due to large corporate redemptions for tax payments. SIP contributions remained steady at Rs. 8,
The document is a daily market report from www.tradenivesh.com dated December 2, 2019. It provides an overview of the performance of key stock indices in India and globally, top gainers and losers among Indian stocks, commodity prices and other market news. Major Indian indices like Sensex and Nifty closed lower by around 1% each. Sectoral indices like Nifty Media and PSU Bank were also down over 2%.
L&T has announced orders worth ~Rs300bn for the quarter against reported order inflow of Rs334bn in Q1FY15. Order flow announced in the current quarter has been dominated by domestic orders which constituted 74% of orders against 44% in Q1FY15. Maintain buy.
- The Indian stock market edged higher on hopes that upcoming company earnings and auto sales will show continued economic growth. The central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged had little impact.
- Several Indian companies saw share price movements, including Muthoot Finance declaring an interim dividend, ABB India winning a large contract, and PC Jeweller expanding into e-commerce by partnering with Flipkart.
- Tyre company stocks rallied on falling rubber prices, while housing company HDIL rose after shareholders revoked pledged shares.
The Indian equity markets ended the week on a mixed note, with the Sensex declining 0.89% while the Nifty closed 0.80% lower. Several companies such as Everest Industries, Emami, Gati, Visaka Industries, Equitas Holdings and Shoppers Stop have their concall scheduled for today. The markets will continue to watch out for developments around the French elections and movement in US bond yields.
Special report by epic research of 30 january 2018Epic Research
Epic Research provides special report of the stock market in each segment that helps the traders to get a better overview of the market daily movements. Our aim is to serve quality services to the customers and fulfil their profit objective.
- ONGC has guided for modest production growth in oil and gas over the medium term from projects in western offshore and Krishna Godavari basin. New gas projects like Daman and Vashishta are expected to start production over the next few years and together contribute 4 bcm of gas between FY15-17.
- ONGC's major development projects are viable at current oil prices of $50-60/bbl and domestic gas prices. A new upstream subsidy mechanism is expected to reduce the subsidy burden on ONGC when oil prices are below $60/bbl.
- ONGC remains a core holding given its role in India's energy security and potential to grow production from new projects over the
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.
This document provides a business review for Tata Motors for Q3 FY13. It includes key financial highlights and performance summaries for Tata Motors standalone, Tata Motors consolidated, Jaguar Land Rover, and several Tata Motors subsidiaries. It also provides an overview of the Indian economic scenario in Q3 FY13, noting a GDP growth rate of 5.4% for the first half of FY13 and lackluster industrial and infrastructure growth. Inflation moderated to 7.25% in Q3 FY13 from 9.01% in the prior year period.
The report discusses the outlook for the telecom service sector in Korea in 2016. It notes that while challenges remain, such as slowing revenue growth, telecom stocks are expected to attract investors as defensive plays due to their steady earnings and high dividend yields. The report also anticipates telecom companies will actively seek new growth opportunities through expanding into areas like digital technology, the internet of things, and fintech. The main themes for 2016 are said to be strengthening shareholder returns and pursuing growth drivers, with a focus on issues related to dividends, revenue, regulatory matters like upcoming auctions, and expanding into new business lines.
The document summarizes a morning note from CP-Artha Financial Advisory Private Ltd dated April 30, 2013. It includes:
1) An analysis of Piramal Glass Limited announcing the sale of land in Sri Lanka, noting the company's fundamentals have been declining recently.
2) A rating of "Avoid" is given for the stock until the next two quarters when the company's fundamentals will be reassessed.
3) A market commentary providing stock market index prices and movements, as well as sector performances and foreign institutional investor data.
This document analyzes investment recommendations and company fundamentals in Singapore. It finds that consensus recommendations on Singapore stocks have shifted from Buy to Sell. It identifies Venture Corporation and First Resources as companies with many positive recommendations, while Singapore Press Holdings and Sembcorp Marine have more negative recommendations. Analysts expect high earnings growth from Yoma Strategic Holdings and First Resources but declines for Sembcorp Marine. Noble Group and Asian Pay Television were seen as having the most upside potential, while SMRT Corporation the least. Overall, analysts' earnings estimates have not accurately predicted actual growth in Singapore.
This document discusses IDFC Large Cap Fund, an equity fund that predominantly invests in large cap stocks. It highlights the advantages of large caps such as high liquidity, established track records, reputable management, and financial resilience. The fund employs a three pillar strategy of buying the right sectors, sector leaders, and tactically allocating to mid/small caps. It is currently overweight in telecom, IT, and consumer staples sectors and underweight in financials, commodities, and utilities. The minimum investment amount is Rs. 5,000 with no exit load.
This document discusses IDFC Large Cap Fund, an equity scheme that predominantly invests in large cap stocks. It highlights the advantages of large caps such as high liquidity, established track records, reputable management, and financial resilience. The fund aims to provide upside return potential with relatively low volatility by investing in industry leaders and taking a blend of top-down and bottom-up approaches. It demonstrates how the fund's sector allocation and focus on buying sector leaders has helped returns. Currently, the fund is overweight in telecom, IT and consumer staples sectors while underweight in financials, commodities and utilities.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global outsourcing market in Q3 2013. Some key points:
- Q3 2013 saw the best performance ever for both outsourcing contract value (ACV) and number of contracts awarded globally. ACV was up 1% year-over-year to $5.6 billion.
- The EMEA region saw its strongest third quarter performance ever, with ACV of $3.5 billion, up 16% year-over-year. DACH, France and Southern Europe regions performed particularly well.
- ITO also saw its best ever third quarter, with ACV of $4.4 billion, up 15% year-over
This document provides an analysis on UltraTech Cement. It rates the stock as a "Buy" with a target price range of Rs. 3400-3550 over the next 12 months, representing potential upside of 14%. UltraTech is India's largest cement company and is expected to benefit from recovering economic growth and increasing cement demand in India. The company plans to aggressively expand its capacity which will help drive strong volume growth.
fundamental analysis and valuation of public sector power companiesNitin Jaggi
This document provides an overview and valuation of two major Indian public sector power companies: NTPC and NHPC. It first discusses Trustline Securities Ltd, the company conducting the analysis. It then provides background on India's power sector and an overview of NTPC, including its financials and valuation using DCF. For NHPC, it discusses the company overview and indicators but does not provide a valuation. The document aims to analyze and value these two major power companies in India.
This document provides an analysis of the Indonesian consumer market and economy in 2017. It summarizes key sector outlooks, including neutral stances on construction, telecommunications, media, and cement. Consumer spending is expected to increase in areas like property, vehicles, and travel. Surveys show spending priorities of groceries and traveling. Advertising spending on TV and print is growing steadily. Overall, the domestic economy is assessed as stronger than six months ago, with the stock market expected to rise to 5,964 by the end of 2017.
Bata India Ltd is rated a HOLD by the analyst, with a target price of Rs. 1953, representing an 8% upside. Bata's Q3FY20 results failed to impress due to the impact of the economic slowdown on volumes. While ASP growth aided overall value growth, volumes are expected to remain hampered in the current environment. In the long run, Bata's branding and distribution provide a strong foundation for growth. However, macroeconomic issues continue to limit near-term topline expansion. The stock trades at a premium valuation relative to peers, which is justified by its quality profile, but further declines in the macroeconomic environment pose a key risk.
Buy Britannia Industries for a target of Rs1110 - Prabhudas LilladherIndiaNotes.com
BRIT plans to undertake 1) faster and bigger innovations 2) aggressive cost reduction 3) distribution expansion and 4) provision of delightful and affordable consumer experience Maintain ‘BUY’ with a target of Rs1,110
The document discusses the IDFC Core Equity Fund, a large and mid cap equity fund that invests in both large and mid cap stocks. It aims to provide the steady returns of large caps with the higher growth potential of mid caps. The fund uses a 3-factor model to identify quality stocks with strong cash generation, high returns on capital, and manageable debt levels. Currently, it has a cyclical sector bias and overweight positions in sectors like cement and IT. The fund performance has outpaced benchmarks over the past 1 and 3 years.
IDFC Core Equity Fund is an open-ended equity scheme that invests in both large and mid-cap stocks. The fund aims to provide the steady returns of large caps along with the higher growth potential of mid caps. It uses a 3-factor model to identify quality stocks with strong cash generation, high returns on capital, and manageable debt levels. Currently, the fund focuses on analyzing financial track records, relative value, and sector outlooks. It has a larger allocation to cyclical sectors compared to its benchmark index and is overweight in sectors like cement and information technology.
Ahluwalia Contracts well placed to benefit from opportunities in construction...IndiaNotes.com
Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Ltd. is an integrated construction company that has staged a remarkable turnaround. It has improved profitability significantly over the past year by selectively bidding on projects and strengthening its balance sheet. The company has a large order backlog of projects providing visibility over the next two years. It aims to increase its focus on government projects which now make up 65% of orders due to payment issues in the private sector. Margins are expected to improve further as the company focuses more on composite contracts. The management has guided for strong revenue growth over the next few years and the company is well positioned to benefit from growth in the construction sector.
As there has been a trend of performance concentration across market cycles, different investment styles may perform at different phases of a market cycle. Our Market Outlook for November 2020
Bharti Airtel Ltd reported a slight decline in quarterly revenues due to lower growth in India and South Asia, though mobile revenues increased. EBITDA margins remained flat. In Africa, revenues and subscriber numbers grew, but EBITDA margins declined due to market expansion and currency weakness. The company failed to achieve its targets for Africa revenues and EBITDA by 2013. Overall performance was disappointing and a HOLD recommendation was given on the stock.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
1. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
DOCUMENT FOR DISCUSSION
“ Bouncing at the Bottom;
rather than a sharp uptick”
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
RBI
Pvt. Sector
Govt.
22nd April, 2013
Tapasije Mishra
2. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
2013 is an interesting year with equity market participants positive and corporate India very
cautious
Significant positive momentum created by Ministry of Finance; strong ETF liquidity
Both inflation and growth moderating; no pickup in private capex in 2013
Conflict between lag and lead indicators :
CV sales remain poor in December; stocks are pricing in an upturn; our analyst has a –ive view
on current prices
Toll roads witnessing traffic declines in past 6 months
The Indian consumer to feel a big squeeze
Rise in middle class UN-employment; job creation not yet on the national agenda
2
Executive Summary
4. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 4
CV Sales Dropped 30% Between Mar-12 and Jan-13, Inventories Build Up
2%
30%
37%
26%
12%
32%
6%
-22%
35%
32%
19%
-6%
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
Y-o-Y CV Sales Growth
Source: MOSPI, SIAM, Bloomberg
*Annualized data based on 10M FY13 actuals
Decline in CV sales from 99K to 69K per month in last 10 months
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
3-Dec-12
13-Dec-12
23-Dec-12
2-Jan-13
12-Jan-13
22-Jan-13
1-Feb-13
11-Feb-13
21-Feb-13
3-Mar-13
13-Mar-13
Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Eicher Motor Hero Motocorp M&M Maruti Suzuki Tata Motor TVS Motor
After witnessing significant upward movement in Q3 FY13, Auto stocks are now correcting, in line with fundamentals
11%
-2%
-2%
99
61
70
74 73 74
79
72
67
70 69
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
-18%
-8%
-8%
-7%
-4%
5. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
2%
5%
5%
2%
4%
5%
6%
9%
3%
1%
5%
-4%
3%
1%
Surat – Dahisar Mumbai Pune Indore Edlabad Jaipur Kishangarh Bharuch – Surat
PCU Growth (9M FY11) PCU Growth (9M FY12) PCU Growth (9M FY13)
Toll Roads’ Traffic Growth Rate Flat or Negative in 9MFY13
5
Road Project Surat - Dahisar Mumbai Pune Indore Edlabad Jaipur Kishangarh Bharuch - Surat
Length (Kms) 239 206 203 90 65
Rate of change in
growth (9MFY13/12)
-81% -2% -160% -68% -50%
Connectivity
Surat to Dahisar
section of NH 8
Mumbai to Pune
section of NH 4
Part of SH-27
Jaipur to Kishangarh
section of NH-8
Bharuch to Surat
section of NH 8
Declining Traffic Growth Across Key Freight Corridors on the Golden Quadrilateral
6. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
22 26 23 26 29 31 30
20
24
23
26
30
36 346
7
6
7
8
8
8
9
11
10
11
12
13
13
8
10
9
10
12
13
12
6
7
7
8
10
10
10
25
32
31
37
44
51
50
96
117
109
124
143
162
157
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
Mumbai Delhi Hyderabad Chennai Bangalore Kolkata Others
6
Airport Passenger Traffic Down 4% in FY13
Decline in traffic at all major airports, similar to the trend witnessed during FY09
Source: AAI
*Annualized data based on 9M FY13 actuals
g=21%
g=-7% g=14%
g=16%
g=13%
g=-4%
Total Pax in Mn
7. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 7
Why is IEX Power at Rs.3.70 ?
Source: CEA
Energy supply and peak deficit (%)
Short term power tariff data for January 2013 (Rs./kwh) - MoM
11.5
9.3
10.6
10.1
8.2
7.6
8.6 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.9 9.1 8.9
9.9
8.4
13.1 13.7
12.4
9.5 9.0 9.2 9.0
8.2
9.6 10.0
9.4
7.7
9.6
11.4
7.9
11.4
9.3
13.1
16.7
15.5
10.9
12.2 12.4
16.0
17.7
16.9
17.9 17.5
15.5
16.5
0
5
10
15
20
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
India - Supply Deficit India - Peak Deficit Southern Zone - Supply Deficit(%)
5.0
4.8
4.5
5.1
4.7 4.9 5.0 4.8
4.2
4.7
4.3 4.3
4.9
4.6 4.7
5.1
5.4
4.1 4.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
3.6 4.1
4.5
3.9
3.0
4.0
3.6
3.9
3.7
6.6
4.8
5.4
3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8
4.3
5.6
6.1
2.2
1.5
2.3
1.9
2.3 2.3
0.0
1.8
3.5
5.3
7.0
Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Bilateral IEX UI - NEW Grid
Elections?
Short term
power rates
will rise!
JSPL Buy
8. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 8
7.5% Average Decline in Container Traffic at Ports in Q3 FY13
Cargo handled at Major Ports
Source: IPA
In '000 tons Feb-13 Feb-12 %yoy YTD '13 YTD '12 %yoy
POL 14,087 14,830 -5% 1,68,232 1,63,316 3%
Iron ore 1,767 4,079 -57% 25,442 56,226 -55%
Fertilisers - Finished 126 500 -75% 7,135 11,825 -40%
Fertilisers - Raw 576 675 -15% 7,055 7,438 -5%
Coal - Thermal 5,460 4,584 19% 53,063 45,762 16%
Coal - Coking 1,850 1,998 -7% 25,973 25,976 0%
Containers - Tonnage 9,269 8,914 4% 1,09,172 1,09,511 0%
Containers - TEUs' 000s 604 564 7% 7,035 7,094 -1%
Other 11,105 8,151 36% 1,01,898 90,775 12%
Total 44,240 43,731 1.2% 4,97,970 5,10,829 -3%
Container volumes at Major Ports + Mundra + Pipavav
In '000 TEUs FY12 FY11 yoy (%) 9MFY13 9MFY12 yoy (%)
Major ports 7,768 7,537 3.1 5,763 5,842 (1.4)
Mundra 1,520 1,228 23.8 1,262 1,099 14.9
Pipavav 639 497 28.5 405 474 (14.5)
Total of above 9,927 9,262 7.2 7,430 7,415 0.2
11. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Why are we bullish on Indian Telecom sector?
Declining competitive intensity as fringe players focusing on profitable growth; number of players down to 6-8, only
marginally ahead of 5-7 in 2007
Incumbents have gained market share despite being rational in the market place
Realization should see an uptick over the medium-term: freebies withdrawal, tariff increase and higher data usage
Valuations (5.5 – 6.0x FY14E EBITDA) offer 30-40% upside over the next 12-18 months
What is yet to be addressed?
Regulatory proposals like auction roadmap, re-farming, domestic roaming charges and M&A guidelines
Entry strategy of Reliance Infotel (Greenfield, Brownfield or only LTE) is still a black box
In our view, Greenfield entry in a mature voice market makes little business sense
11
Telecom: Ring Out the Old, Ring in the New
Preferred Stocks
Company
IDFC
Rating
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-15E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
Bharti Airtel OP 274 18.94 390 5.8 25.0 9.6 8.1
Idea Cellular OP 106 6.39 135 6.2 25.0 16.7 30.3
Reliance Comm. OP 63 2.36 100 6.0 13.0 8.2 9.6
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 4th April 2013
Analyst: Hitesh Shah
13. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
We are incrementally positive on the Indian IT Services sector
Macro data points to recovery in the US; pipeline/ sentiment has improved
Discretionary spend returning in most verticals in North America (excl. Investment Banks and Telecom)
S&P 500 operating EPS has turned the corner; Indian IT revenues is highly correlated with a 3- quarter lag
However, bad news is not over yet; CY13 IT budgets to be largely flat and deal closures are taking long
Stock picking is name of the game - we prefer “growth at reasonable price”
Pick stocks where improving macro environment is not captured in valuations
Tier1 stock returns to reflect earnings growth; some room for re-rating
Small-mid cap stocks to see valuation re-rating and earnings growth
Prefer Infosys (OP) vs.TCS (N) – Valuations to converge as growth rates converge
Sell HCL Tech (UP) – Hiring incongruent with deal win announcement
Like KPIT (expertise in Auto-electronics, JDEdwards and SAP) and Persistent (play on IP driven business)
13
IT Services: Sentiment improving… Business to follow
Key Recommendations
Company Rating
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-15E CAGR
EV/EBITDA PE EBITDA EPS
Infosys OP 2,880 30.00 3,200 10.2 15.6 10.4 13.6
TCS N 1508 53.81 1,430 13.2 18.23 16.6 19.1
HCL Tech UP 743 9.41 650 7.8 13.8 19.9 22.5
KPIT Cummins OP 94 0.31 150 4.1 6.7 28.3 28.3
Persistent Systems OP 541 0.39 620 4.7 9.5 20.9 23.2
Analyst: Hitesh Shah
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 4th April 2013
14. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
We remain underweight on the capital goods sector
New project announcements plummet by 74% Y-o-Y suggesting a deteriorating capex cycle
Challenges in execution remain; projects under implementation but stalled continue to touch new highs
Investment concerns persist on matters such as land acquisition, environmental clearances, FSA’s etc
Overcapacity and regulatory hurdles to drive slower recovery in areas such as Metals, cement, refineries & power
Likely to witness slower order inflows and backlogs providing limited visibility for earnings
Recommend selling Thermax (extremely rich valuations and possible disappointment on order inflows) and Voltas
(EMP cycle recovery to take time, margins continue to decline, higher competition in unitary cooling poses a risk)
Recommend buying Havells (for their strong brand and distribution network driving a sustainable 14% CAGR in
earnings) and Crompton (since its risk reward is quite favourable with most negatives known and priced)
14
Capital Goods: No Recovery in Sight
Preferred Stocks
Company
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(Rs Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
Havells India 602 75 700 9.3 15.5 9% 14%
Crompton 91 58 115 7.9 13.0 6% 10%
Analyst: Bhoomika Nair
15. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Positive view on consumption is not misplaced
We remain positive on consumer space given the relatively protected consumer demand environment and a
continued premiumisation trend being witnessed across categories
Worldwide alcohol companies have a higher market cap than tobacco companies, but not in India. With global
players no controlling the alcohol space, we expect this mismatch to correct going forward.
The cable distribution space stands to be the only “structural” play in the Indian media sector.
Top Buys: United Spirits, Jyothy Labs, Den Networks, Jain Irrigation
Top Sells: ITC, HUL
15
Consumption: Resilience in adversity
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 12th March 2013: *- Target price under review, awaiting clarity on Diageo management ‘s strategy for USL
**yoy growth in FY14
Company Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Reco
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
Jyothy Labs 159 0.48 OP 250 14.0 22.6 63 59.5
United Spirits * 1824 4.3 OP * 19.8 41.2 25 53.4
DEN Networks 188 0.5 OP 250 11.4 34.9 70 57.3
Jain Irrigation** 68 0.4 OP 100 6 7.4 22* 53*
Analyst: Nikhil Vora
Company Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Reco
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
ITC 300 42.8 OP 260 18 26.5 19.5 19.9
Hindustan Unilever 470 18.7 OP 442 21.3 27.7 15 19
16. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 16
United Spirits – Poised to be the No 1 consumer stock in India
Indian Alcohol Beverages sector to be rerated
Diageo and Pernod Ricard, the two largest global players, now control 60%+ of the Indian spirits market
‘Profits’ and ‘Best practices’ key focus for both Diageo and Pernod, hence terms of trade will improve significantly
Consequently, the Indian liquor industry is set to move to a new league of growth and value creation
Diageo deal to steer United Spirits towards premiumisation and deleveraging
Diageo to re-instate focus towards premiumization and “value” rather than volume
Premiumisation case in point: With 1.6x higher realization per case, Pernod earned 12x PBT of UNSP s in FY12
Diageo deal would infuse capital to the tune of Rs33bn into USL (treasury stock + preferential allotment), aiding in
significant balance sheet de-leveraging (currently 60% of balance sheet)
Alcohol vs Tobacco MCap: India to revert to global norms?
Worldwide - Aggregate market capitalization of alcoholic beverages sector is 1.5x that of tobacco companies. However, in
India, alcoholic beverages companies aggregate market capitalization is at 1/5th that of tobacco companies
We believe this gap is poised to narrow, and UNSP will lead the same
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
United Spirits Pernod
Pernod vs United Spirits (FY12)
Realisation per case (LHS) PBT per case (RHS)
1.6x
12x
594
43.3
875
8.8
1
10
100
1000
World India
M-Cap of Tobacco & Alcohol companies
Tobacco Brewers & Distillers($bn)
17. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
The ‘cable distribution’ space remains the only “structural” play in Indian Media space
With analog signals being switched off in Delhi and Mumbai (as per Phase-I deadline of 30th Oct 2012) without any
major hiccups, the seriousness of all stakeholders and the Ministry is well established.
With Phase-II on the cards, DEN is adding 350,000+ digital subscribers a month with a target to reach 3.5m digital
subscribers by FY13 end and leverage on its ~5m subscriber universe in Phase-II.
As India moves from a 40m+ digital subscriber base to a 200m base over the next 3-4years, we see the mix of
DTH:cable shifting from 90:10 currently to 50:50 on incremental basis. Hence, we believe cable will lead the
digitization rollout from hereon (evident in DEN adding 1m+ subs in Q4FY13 against 0.1m net addition by Dish TV)
With digitization to improve declarations (albeit with a lag), we see the ‘annuity-driven’ model of distribution coming
to the fore and resulting in superior financial performance for DEN Networks (57% earnings CAGR, FY12-14E). We
see merit in investing in the space
17
DEN Networks - best proxy to play ‘digitization’!
Digitization deadlines set by the government
Phase Areas suggested Deadline
Phase I Four Metros of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai
30th October 2012 (yet to be implemented in
Chennai)
Phase II Cities with a Population more than one million
31st March 2013 (expected to be implemented
with a 2-3 month delay)
Phase III All Urban areas (Municipal Corp/ Municipalities) 30th September 2014
Phase IV Rest of India 31st Dec 2014
18. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Jain Irrigation has changed its MIS business model to counter higher working capital requirements due to delay in subsidy
recovery from the government. While this is impacting near term earnings, it is underpinning strong improvement in balance
sheet metrics
In the state of Maharashtra (which accounts of 45%+ of total MIS sales), JISL has started recovering 100% of the
capital upfront from farmers (with 50% as post dated cheques of 180-200 days).
Further, JISL is strategically focusing on states where the subsidy disbursements have been relatively better. As a
result, JISL has limited its operations in the some of the southern states and is focussing on states such as
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan
Recent capital infusion of US$200, will impart JISL the much needed financial muscle to leverage on the underlying growth
in the MIS industry and efficiently manage cash flows
NBFC, now operational, will further aid in resolving the dependence towards government subsidies in the longer term.
Discussions for value unlocking in the fruit processing unit. Development would be a key trigger and remains to be a critical
monitorable
18
Jain Irrigation – worst is behind!
Days outstanding
180
210
240
270
Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research
Overall
receivables (in
days outstanding)
on a decline
19. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
From a limited opportunity play…
Limited opportunity play (USD500m)– Presence in only 3 mass-end categories and one flagship brand - Ujala
Akin to GCPL in 2008 – GCPL in 2008 had limited product portfolio (low growth visibility)
Promoter-driven business for past 30 years, without professional management
Management bandwidth scaled up.. Business integration complete..
Spearheading the change in management is new CEO Mr S Raghunandan, a “turnaround veteran”
The new team, brought in by new CEO, has 15-25 years of experience from across the top consumer names like
HUL, Marico, Colgate, Paras, Sara Lee etc.
Re-organisation of management team as well as the re-alignment and integration of the two businesses (Jyothy
and Henkel) is almost complete and the management is now likely to start exploit brand portfolio in FY14.
Poised to enter the big league – JYL can potentially be another Godrej Consumer Products, which has grown
over the last 5 years through acquiring successfully and has increased market cap by10x in the process
19
Jyothy Laboratories – The next big thing!
To a whole new scale!!
Post the Henkel acquisition, market opportunity up 10x to
US$5bn in India
Entry into ‘premium’ categories – Henkel infuses a
premium brand- width into a hitherto mass market portfolio
Premium
Mid
Mass
JYL +Henkel
Premium
Mid
Mass
JYL +Henkel
Premium
Mid
Mass
JYL
Premium
Mid
Mass
JYL
US$500m US$5bn
20. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Threat for a cigarette de-rate is very real
The global clampdown on cigarettes will result in de-rate of global cigarette majors
ITC’s valuation gap with global majors has expanded to over 50% from 20% 10 year back with volume growth
difference having narrowed. Expect the global de-rate to have a rub-off effect on ITC’s cigarette valuations.
Domestic environment getting increasingly disruptive.. FY14 cigarette volumes expected to decline
ITC’s last five year cigarette volume CAGR is 1.3% as against 6% for the five years prior to that.
FY13 volume growth is expected to be muted at 1%. With overall tax incidence increasing by over 20% in FY14 as
well, we expect decline in volumes for the year.
As the regulatory environment continues to worsen (potential ad valorem structure, states banning tobacco,
unprecedented VAT hikes), the perceived volume growth story for cigarettes in India is likely to prove illusory.
FMCG strategy flawed; other businesses will dilute return profile
Failure to get even 15% share in any category in FMCG despite having the strongest distribution and investing
huge capital (Rs45bn) dilutes economic benefits of this space.
ITC looks to pump in 75% of capex into segments like Hotels and Paper, which are at best P/B businesses and
lower ITC’s overall return profile.
We believe the structural risk to the cigarette business will weigh down on business fundamentals and reflect in the
stock underperformance in the future.
20
ITC – Structural headwinds to catch up
21. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Pain points evident in core portfolio
HUL’s volume growth is at a 3 year low and is expected to stay muted in the medium term.
Continued pressure on Fair and Lovely, regional issues with Wheel, and a slower rate of growth at the premium
end are impacting the core portfolio growth profile.
Unileverisation to cap new product pipeline
HUL’s thrust to boost its innovation funnel is limited to Unilever categories. Unlike other global majors (P&G,
Nestle, Agrotech) the company’s global portfolio has been largely tapped.
Of the 14 billion dollar brands in Unilever portfolio, 9 are in India and the others are not relevant to the Indian
market!! Not ‘Indianising’ will result in the innovation funnel drying up, thereby making it harder for HUL to achieve
relevant volume growth in the long term.
Competitive intensity and higher royalty payments to restrict margin expansion
Competitive intensity remains high in laundry and personal products which will keep A&P spends high in the
medium term.
Further, a 30-40bp annual increase in royalty restricts the inherent margin expansion potential in the business.
The structural slowdown in volumes, revenues and hence profits will take its toll on valuations.
21
Hindustan Unilever – The pain is evident
22. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Industry fundamentals have improved over last few months
Improvement of ~20% in Asian benchmark GRMs to ~US$ 7-8 / bbl levels
Recent moves on diesel pricing and differential pricing for bulk diesel are a positive, may reduce gross subsidies
by ~35% for FY14E vs FY13E levels (assuming average price hikes of Rs4/ltr over FY14E)
Exploration approvals for CAIRN/RIL and proposals for increasing gas prices gaining momentum
Valuations have run up sharply, with 15% increase in sector over last one month (BSE O&G index)
However, we remain underweight
Do not see the upsurge in GRMs sustainable; prevalence of adequate supply and extremely muted demand
For petrochemicals, the overhang of ME led supply additions continues – spreads unlikely to compress
Government support remains significant for OMCs (~Rs 590 Bn required from Government even in FY14E)
Gas price increase proposal remains only a proposal, exact quantum & applicability is a crucial monitorable
22
Oil & Gas: Cairn offers value, ONGC benefits from higher gas prices
Preferred Stocks
Company
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR
EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
ONGC 317 1.00 296 4.0 10.6 1.1 0.5
Cairn India 297 0.21 382 3.2 6.3 15.2 6.3
GAIL 340 0.16 407 6.3 9.7 10.1 0.5
Petronet LNG 145 0.04 192 6.0 9.5 9.3 4.3
Indraprastha Gas 270 0.01 337 5.8 11.7 0.5 2.3
Analyst: Prakash Joshi
23. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 23
Top Picks – Oil & Gas
Company Key arguments
ONGC
Incremental diesel price hikes are a positive, reduced subsidy contribution can increase net realisations
A gas price hike could increase earnings by 19% - this is despite assuming a corresponding increase in
share of subsidy to 85% for ONGC and the overall upstream share to ~40%
Stock remains undervalued compared to regional peers, with an Ev/boe of US$5/boe, a ~80% discount to
peers
Cairn India
Only pure play crude linked upstream player in the country
Steady production growth, strong crude prices and globally competitive costs
Potential to increase recoverable reserves by ~50% over the next two years
Petronet LNG
Availability of LNG
Strong pricing power
GAIL
Strong pricing power
Enjoy near monopoly status in Gas Transmission & Distribution
Ability to source higher LNG
Indraprastha Gas
Strong pricing power
Enjoy near monopoly status in City Gas Distribution network
Ability to place higher priced LNG into its markets without compromising gross margins
24. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Selective opportunities exist in the infrastructure space
Reduction in interest rates and de-leveraging through asset sales are key near term triggers
Prefer players with relatively lower fuel & tariff risks in the power sector; with greater cash flow visibility and asset
monetization potential in the infrastructure space
Valuations at 0.5x – 1.0x P/B for most players are attractive
What is yet to be addressed?
Decision on coal & gas price pooling & on tariff hikes for imported coal based power plants
Expedite environment/ forest clearances for mining and infrastructure projects
Decisions prone to litigation and may not be easy to implement
24
Infrastructure: De-leveraging is a Nearer Term Solution than Reforms
Preferred Stocks
Company
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA P/B EBITDA EPS
Jaiprakash Associates 63.8 2.5 112 7.6 0.6 35.2 61.2
JPVL 25.6 1.2 45 10.1 1.0 48.5 13.4
IRB 114 0.7 180 6.8 1.0 17.1 (1.0)
KSK 47.5 0.3 127 9.7 0.4 66.8 218.7
Adani Ports & SEZ 140.8 5.1 164 12.2 3.8 35.3 16.4
Analyst: Shirish Rane
25. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 25
Top Picks – Infrastructure & Power
Company Key arguments
Jaiprakash Associates
Commissioning of assets & pick-up in cement utilization to improve cash flows
Key beneficiary of interest rate cuts (-1% drop to lead to 14% higher FY14 EPS)
Monetization of west cement business (~5 MTPA) - a key near term trigger
Attractively valued at 8.4x PER and 7.6x EV/EBITDA (FY14E consolidated)
Jaiprakash Power Ventures
Limited
Low fuel availability risk; strong cash flows from Kharcham
Stage-II forest clearance for Amelia (North) captive coal block received
70% of Nigrie thermal power station is open – upside potential to tariffs
Attractively priced at 13.1x FY14E PER, 10.1x FY14E EV/EBITDA & 1.0x FY14E P/BV
IRB
Strong cash flows; 14% CAGR (FY12-14) expected in cash earnings
Ability to execute new projects worth ~Rs 55 Bn by FY15 using own cash flows
Stock trades at 7.8x FY14 earnings and 3.8x FY14 cash earnings
KSK
Fuel supply for Wardha Warora has improved; Gare-Palma-III to meet fuel requirement for Phase I for 1,800 MW
Commissioning of 3,600 MW Mahanadi power plant to start from Mar-13
For Phase II, PPA with GUVNL is conditional on fuel supply – limited risk
Valuations at 4.5x FY14E PER, 9.7x FY13E EV/EBITDA and 0.4x FY13E P/BV
Adani Ports & SEZ
Strong entry barriers to the business makes it an attractive asset play
High cargo visibility and stable cash flows through long term contracts
Abbot Point divestment to cut consol debt by 50% to ~Rs100bn and materially reduce leverage profile
Earnings growth to remain strong - 16% earnings CAGR over FY12-14E
SEZ land bank of 18k acres has long term strategic value
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 25th January 2013
26. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
We remain underweight on the metals
Global demand moderating after a decade of strong growth as China’s FAI investment growth decelerates and risk
in Europe looms large, as macroeconomic data continues to remain weak;
Rising per tonne capex costs and supply disruptions to support global raw material prices; operating margins to
compress further
Investment led demand in India to subside as macroeconomic indicators and GFC formation weakens. India losing
its raw material cost advantage; an overcapacity-led shift in domestic steel market to export parity pricing to hurt
realizations
Rising CWIP and lower profitability to lower return ratios; multiple de-rating not priced in. Stocks would likely
remain range-bound in near term.
We remain positive on JSPL (for their strong cash flow generation, higher backward integration and superior balance
sheet). Increasing power merchant tariff and signing of Utkal B1 mining lease can act as a huge positive trigger
We remain negative on Tata Steel, (on continuing uncertainty on loss making European operations; declining
profitability for future domestic projects and rising leverage, led by higher capex intensity).
26
Metals: Underweight
Preferred Stocks
Company
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
JSPL 345 0.12 427 6.4 8.3 9% -1%
Analyst: Prakash Joshi
27. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Best case assumptions Base case assumptions Worst case assumptions
units units units
Steel business EBITDA Rs m 60,654 Steel business EBITDA Rs m 60,654
Steel business EBITDA
(sarda impact)
Rs m 52,764
Steel business multiple x 6 Steel business multiple x 5.5 Steel business multiple x 5
Value for steel business 180 Value for steel business 148 Value for steel business 73
Long term power tariffs Rs/unit 4.5 Long term power tariffs Rs/unit 4.0 Long term power tariffs Rs/unit 3.5
Fuel costs for Tamnar I Rs/unit 0.6 Fuel costs for Tamnar I Rs/unit 0.6 Fuel costs for Tamnar I Rs/unit 0.7
Fuel costs for Tamnar II Rs/unit 0.8 Fuel costs for Tamnar II Rs/unit 1.1 Fuel costs for Tamnar II Rs/unit 1.4
Valuation for Tamnar I Rs/share 233 Valuation for Tamnar I Rs/share 216 Valuation for Tamnar I Rs/share 179
Valuation for Tamnar II -
entire 2,400 MW
Rs/share 132
Valuation for Tamnar II - only
1,200 MW
Rs/share 63
Valuation for Tamnar II - only
1,200 MW
Rs/share 49
Total per share value Rs/share 545 Total per share value Rs/share 427 Total per share value Rs/share 301
JSPL – Scenario Analysis
Source: Bloomberg, WSD
115 148 180
(42)
-
-
179
216
23349
63
132
-100
75
250
425
600
Worst case Base case Best case
Difference of multiple - Steel business Impact of SARDA mine Valuation for Tamnar I Valuation for Tamnar II(Rs/share)
301
427
545
27
28. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Auto: Hopes of demand recovery dashed again
28
Selective opportunities exist in the auto space
HCV demand extremely weak – closer to bottom; moderation in demand for UVs and diesel cars
Demand pullback looks elusive in 4Q FY13; cut in FY14 estimates certain
Preference for stocks with export tilt and leverage
Recommend selling Tata Motors (Stock factoring in 40% premium over BMW for JLR while ignoring competition
launches and Jaguar dependence for growth; standalone business structurally weak). Don’t see upside in M&M. Hero
MotoCorp a value trap. Recommend buying Maruti Suzuki post steep fall (forex to cushion volume miss/competition),
Ashok Leyland (tactical upcycle trade) and TVS Motor (contrarian call as best risk:reward; significant launches [6 in
2013] and BMW deal). Recommend adding Bajaj Auto and Eicher Motors on dips (structural picks).
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 25th January 2013
Preferred Stocks
Company
Price
(Rs)
Mkt Cap
(US$ Bn)
Target
Price (Rs)
FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
EV/EBITDA PE EBITDA EPS
Maruti Suzuki 1,417 8.23 1,485* 6.6 14.2 32.1 36.0
Ashok Leyland 23 1.19 30 7.2 8.4 6.5 14.0
TVS Motor 40 0.37 62 3.7 5.8 13.1 14.4
Analyst: Pramod Kumar
* - street ascribes a P/E multiple of 15x.
29. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 29
Top Picks – Auto
Company Key arguments
Maruti Suzuki
Stock offers a good trading upside post 13% fall
Gaining market share from competition as demand weakens
Significant weakness in JPY provides ample cushion against volume miss/ compettition
At 15x FY14 (consensus multiples) stock would be at Rs1,575
Ashok Leyland
Saw correction from Rs 28 due to concerns of a earning dilutive QIP
QIP called-off due to lack interest. Management has ruled out any fund raising in medium term.
Current levels attractive as recovery not factored in and MHCV closer to cyclical bottom
Recommend buying around Rs 23; purely a up-cycle trade
TVS Motor
6 launches to drive volumes /margins; enough headroom to grow volumes/margins
On course to knock-off Rs 4 Bn debt (25% of Mkt Cap) by FY14
Deal with BMW a big vote of confidence in company’s capability.
Attractive valuation at 5.8x/7.7x our FY14E standalone EPS/street estimates
30. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 30
Auto Front Liners : Sell / Neutral
Company Key arguments
Bajaj Auto
Despite multiple headwinds in the past two years company has protected its margins c.20%
Diversified portfolio, export tilt, agility and cost discipline is a positive in a uncertain environment
Greater visibility on forex as FY14 hedged at Rs54+. RE60 not priced in; if successful can re-rate stock
FY14 expected to be much better, led by launches and demand recovery (2HFY14); maintain
outperformer with target price of Rs 2,168. Buy on dips
Mahindra & Mahindra
The best in UVs behind with demand moderation and market share loss; discounts creeping in
No new relevant model launches in UV segment till end FY15 while competition intensifies
Tractor demand recovery delayed, SsangYong profitability pushed back to 2015. 2Ws/CVs losses widen
Losses outside core business restrict upside. SOTP target price of Rs 885; Neutral. Sell on rally.
Tata Motors
Negative surprise from JLR likely product onslaught from competition and pricing pressure not factored in
Capex of14-16%/revenues at JLR rules out free cash flow till FY16; debt levels may continue to rise
India business (20% of SOTP) in structural slippage with market share loss in MHCVs and PVs
Current valuation steep (JLR at 41% premium over BMW EV/sales). Underperformer with TP of Rs 254
Hero MotoCorp
Sustained market share loss despite dealer inventory build-up; dealers increasingly jittery
No product launches for the next two-three years in relevant categories make it vulnerable
Threat from HMSI’s aggressive India plans higher for Hero MotoCorp than Bajaj Auto
Increasing incentives to arrest benefit of royalty payment phase-out in FY15 (max EPS of Rs130)
See it as a value trap post correction, maintain underperformer with target price of Rs 1,565
31. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 31
Government Divestment : Discount to market price deals are attractive
Assumed Conversion Rate: Rs 54.50 per US$
Top 10 PSUs - Potential Realizable Value
Company
Mkt Cap
(US$ Mn)
Current Govt.
Stake (%)
Govt. stake’s
Value
(US$ Mn)
Min. stake to
be held by
Govt. (%)
~ Realizable
Value
(US$ Mn)
IDFC Reco.
Buy Price
(Rs)
ONGC 49,910 69.23 34,553 51 6,299 NEUTRAL 290 – 300
Coal India 37,107 90 33,396 51 13,024 SELL 300
NTPC 22,289 75 16,717 51 4,012 NEUTRAL 140
Indian Oil 13,801 78.92 10,892 51 3,041 SELL 260 – 265
NMDC 10,447 80 8,358 51 2,424 BUY 144
MMTC 5,629 99.33 5,592 51 2,702 Not Rated -
BHEL 8,879 67.72 6,013 51 1,005 SELL 180
PGCIL 9,151 69.42 6,352 51 1,170 Not Rated -
GAIL 7,932 57.34 4,548 51 288 BUY 340
SAIL 5,392 85.82 4,628 51 1,611 SELL 55
Total 1,31,048 35,578
32. PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 32
Government Divestment : Discount to market price deals are attractive
Company
Name
Price
(Rs)
Target
Price (Rs)
Our
Reco.
Comments
Buy Price
(Rs)
Engineers
India
160 200 BUY
Favourable revenue mix
Key beneficiary of any pick up in the hydrocarbon capex
Rs 22 Bn cash on books
150-160
Oil India 549 519 NEUTRAL
Steady improvement in natural gas business
Excess cash – scouting for acquisitions
Proposed subsidy might improve realizations
475 – 480
NTPC 147 178 NEUTRAL
Capacity addition & increased coal supply
But difficult to return to historical availability & PLFs
140
BHEL 199 213 SELL
-6% CAGR expected in earnings (FY12-15)
Outlook on order inflows remains weak
Rise in working capital intensity
180
SAIL 71 59 SELL
Delay in modernisation & expansion plans
Delay in iron ore availability
Pressure on margins expected on account of increasing
employee costs
55