TRI Pointe Group, Inc. (TPH)
Cecilia, Jessica, Gresshaa, Clarissa
UC Berkeley
smartwomansecurities
11/14/15
1
TRI Pointe Group, Inc.
Overview
2
Company Overview
3
SUMMARY
• TRI Pointe Group, Inc is a designer, constructor and seller
of single-family homes in the US.
• TPH owns 6 brands across 8 states (Arizona, California,
Nevada, Washington, Texas, Colorado, Maryland & Virginia)
• First IPO in homebuilding to emerge after 2008 recession
• Company merged with Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Company
(WRECO) to create one of the top 10 largest public
homebuilding companies in the US
• TPH was founded in 2009 and is based in Irvine, California.
It currently has 961 employees.
Management
 Douglas F. Bauer, CEO & Director
 Thomas J. Mitchell, President &
COO
 Michael D. Grubbs, CFO
 Linda H. Mamet, VP Corporate
Marketing
Board of Directors
 Barry S. Sternlicht,
Chairman
 Douglas F. Bauer, CEO &
Director
 Steven J. Gilbert, Director
 Kristin F. Gannon, Director
REVENUE MODEL
 Sales of lots, lands and homes
COMPANY STRENGTHS
 Focus on High Growth Core
Markets
 Domestic company
 Experienced business units
LEADERSHIP
Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis: Construction industry stocks are a buy as
technology advances and cost of construction materials
decreases.
Pricing: $13.47 - $19.50
Volumes: Volume has decreased as sales of houses are declining due to
increasing student debt, which is a burden to potential home-buyers
Margins:
Economic Cycle: Stocks have outperformed relative to competitors
Valuation: Stocks are trading at 16.4x P/E, above industry average
4
Industry Overview
5
S&P Building & Construction
Select Industry Index
Industry Highlights
• Nationally the construction
industry’s employment has increased by
5% over the last few years.
• During the last decade sales of new
homes have decreased. Part of this is
due to increasing student debt, which is
a burden to potential home-buyers.
However, there have been growth in
non-residential construction.
• Overall cost of construction materials
has decreased, largely due to decrease in
oil and petroleum-based products.
• There has been a trend towards more
innovation in the construction industry,
with the invention of new methods and
new technologies, such as 3-D printer,
construction management software, etc.
• According to Dodge Data and Analytics,
the U.S. construction industry will rise 9%
to $612 billion over the next year.
Porter’s Five Forces
• Barriers to Entry: High
– High cost of production
– No threat of new entrants
6
Porter’s Five Forces
• Substitutes:
– Lennar Corporation
– PulteGroup
– KB Home
– Standard Pacific Corporation
7
Porter’s Five Forces
• Rivalry:
8
Porter’s Five Forces
• Buyer Power: Low
– Low buyer concentration
– High switching costs
– No threat of backward integration
– Less price sensitivity (price inelastic)
– Uneducated customers
– Customers that purchase specialized
products
9
Porter’s Five Forces
• Supplier Power: Low
– Land is increasingly scarce
– Entitlement is an increasingly complex &
lengthy process
– Material procurement is becoming more
regional & national, not just local
10
Porter’s Five Forces
• Porter’s Five Forces:
– Industry looks fairly favorable
o Barriers to entry: high
o Substitutes: quite high
o Rivalry: quite high
o Buyer Power: low
o Supplier Power: low
11
Current Valuation
12
VALUATION & METRICS
Valuation
Share Price $12.81
Shares Outstanding 162M
Market Cap $2.07B
Net Debt $110 million
Enterprise Value $3.22B
2015
P/E 16.42
EV/EBITDA 12.22
EV/Sales 1.54
• P/E ratio is currently 16.42x
• Industry P/E average is 25.04x
Income Statement
13
14
Balance Sheet
15
2014 2015
Current
Ratio
8.86
ROE 9.48
ROA 4.92
Leverage 40.22
Cash Flow Statement
16
Forecasting Share Price
Low Medium High
EPS Growth 42% 47% 52%
New EPS 0.41 0.48 0.59
P/E 13x
Share Price 19.5
17
Current EPS on 10K/TTM on Yahoo Finance: 0.99
Current stock price on Yahoo Finance: 13.47
Calculate current P/E: 13.47/0.99 = 13.6x
Calculate EPS growth from annual report: 52.41%
Project new EPS: 0.99 * 1.52 = 1.50
Project new P/E based on EPS growth: 13x
Calculate new price: 13 *1.50 = 19.5
Compare new price to old price: 19.5/13.47 – 1 = 44%
Investor Considerations
• Investor Concerns
- Sales of new homes have declined
- Many substitutes, Strong rivalry
- It has managed to jump ranks from 47
to 13 in a year  Good prospects
• Strategic Partnerships
18
Investor Risks & Mitigation
19
RISKS
General
Economic
Conditions
Increasing
Competition
Effects of
Restructuration
Plans
WRECO
Transaction
POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTORS
 Overall economy strengthening:
Decreasing Unemployment rates,
even though Fed is going to raise
interest rate
 High barriers to entry
due to large start-up
capital
GROWTH STRATEGY FOR TPH
Innovations in energy-
efficient and
environmentally friendly
homes
Effectively manage assets
and maximize cash flow
and profitability
Provide strong national
platform
o Acquisition with WRECO
allows it to have wider
geographical area
Improve consumer service
to provide support for
customers at every
step.
 Experienced leadership
with previous successful
solutions and ideas
 TPH transformed into
one of leading home-
construction companies
Q&A
20

SWS-Investment-Project

  • 1.
    TRI Pointe Group,Inc. (TPH) Cecilia, Jessica, Gresshaa, Clarissa UC Berkeley smartwomansecurities 11/14/15 1
  • 2.
    TRI Pointe Group,Inc. Overview 2
  • 3.
    Company Overview 3 SUMMARY • TRIPointe Group, Inc is a designer, constructor and seller of single-family homes in the US. • TPH owns 6 brands across 8 states (Arizona, California, Nevada, Washington, Texas, Colorado, Maryland & Virginia) • First IPO in homebuilding to emerge after 2008 recession • Company merged with Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Company (WRECO) to create one of the top 10 largest public homebuilding companies in the US • TPH was founded in 2009 and is based in Irvine, California. It currently has 961 employees. Management  Douglas F. Bauer, CEO & Director  Thomas J. Mitchell, President & COO  Michael D. Grubbs, CFO  Linda H. Mamet, VP Corporate Marketing Board of Directors  Barry S. Sternlicht, Chairman  Douglas F. Bauer, CEO & Director  Steven J. Gilbert, Director  Kristin F. Gannon, Director REVENUE MODEL  Sales of lots, lands and homes COMPANY STRENGTHS  Focus on High Growth Core Markets  Domestic company  Experienced business units LEADERSHIP
  • 4.
    Investment Thesis Investment Thesis:Construction industry stocks are a buy as technology advances and cost of construction materials decreases. Pricing: $13.47 - $19.50 Volumes: Volume has decreased as sales of houses are declining due to increasing student debt, which is a burden to potential home-buyers Margins: Economic Cycle: Stocks have outperformed relative to competitors Valuation: Stocks are trading at 16.4x P/E, above industry average 4
  • 5.
    Industry Overview 5 S&P Building& Construction Select Industry Index Industry Highlights • Nationally the construction industry’s employment has increased by 5% over the last few years. • During the last decade sales of new homes have decreased. Part of this is due to increasing student debt, which is a burden to potential home-buyers. However, there have been growth in non-residential construction. • Overall cost of construction materials has decreased, largely due to decrease in oil and petroleum-based products. • There has been a trend towards more innovation in the construction industry, with the invention of new methods and new technologies, such as 3-D printer, construction management software, etc. • According to Dodge Data and Analytics, the U.S. construction industry will rise 9% to $612 billion over the next year.
  • 6.
    Porter’s Five Forces •Barriers to Entry: High – High cost of production – No threat of new entrants 6
  • 7.
    Porter’s Five Forces •Substitutes: – Lennar Corporation – PulteGroup – KB Home – Standard Pacific Corporation 7
  • 8.
  • 9.
    Porter’s Five Forces •Buyer Power: Low – Low buyer concentration – High switching costs – No threat of backward integration – Less price sensitivity (price inelastic) – Uneducated customers – Customers that purchase specialized products 9
  • 10.
    Porter’s Five Forces •Supplier Power: Low – Land is increasingly scarce – Entitlement is an increasingly complex & lengthy process – Material procurement is becoming more regional & national, not just local 10
  • 11.
    Porter’s Five Forces •Porter’s Five Forces: – Industry looks fairly favorable o Barriers to entry: high o Substitutes: quite high o Rivalry: quite high o Buyer Power: low o Supplier Power: low 11
  • 12.
    Current Valuation 12 VALUATION &METRICS Valuation Share Price $12.81 Shares Outstanding 162M Market Cap $2.07B Net Debt $110 million Enterprise Value $3.22B 2015 P/E 16.42 EV/EBITDA 12.22 EV/Sales 1.54 • P/E ratio is currently 16.42x • Industry P/E average is 25.04x
  • 13.
  • 14.
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  • 16.
  • 17.
    Forecasting Share Price LowMedium High EPS Growth 42% 47% 52% New EPS 0.41 0.48 0.59 P/E 13x Share Price 19.5 17 Current EPS on 10K/TTM on Yahoo Finance: 0.99 Current stock price on Yahoo Finance: 13.47 Calculate current P/E: 13.47/0.99 = 13.6x Calculate EPS growth from annual report: 52.41% Project new EPS: 0.99 * 1.52 = 1.50 Project new P/E based on EPS growth: 13x Calculate new price: 13 *1.50 = 19.5 Compare new price to old price: 19.5/13.47 – 1 = 44%
  • 18.
    Investor Considerations • InvestorConcerns - Sales of new homes have declined - Many substitutes, Strong rivalry - It has managed to jump ranks from 47 to 13 in a year  Good prospects • Strategic Partnerships 18
  • 19.
    Investor Risks &Mitigation 19 RISKS General Economic Conditions Increasing Competition Effects of Restructuration Plans WRECO Transaction POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTORS  Overall economy strengthening: Decreasing Unemployment rates, even though Fed is going to raise interest rate  High barriers to entry due to large start-up capital GROWTH STRATEGY FOR TPH Innovations in energy- efficient and environmentally friendly homes Effectively manage assets and maximize cash flow and profitability Provide strong national platform o Acquisition with WRECO allows it to have wider geographical area Improve consumer service to provide support for customers at every step.  Experienced leadership with previous successful solutions and ideas  TPH transformed into one of leading home- construction companies
  • 20.

Editor's Notes

  • #18 Current EPS on 10K/TTM on Yahoo Finance: 0.99 Current stock price on Yahoo Finance: 13.47 Calculate current P/E: 13.47/0.99 = 13.6x Calculate EPS growth from annual report: 52.41% Project new EPS: 0.99 * 1.52 = 1.50 Project new P/E based on EPS growth: 13x Calculate new price: 13 *1.50 = 19.5 Compare new price to old price: 19.5/13.47 – 1 = 44%