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Super engineers – Africa's Leaders of the future
- 1. Super engineers – Africa’s leaders of the future. Roger Dixon Pr Eng BSc (Mining) Hons FSAIMM Chairman and Corporate Consultant SRK Consulting South Africa Pty Ltd
- 2. “Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live for ever” Mahatma Ghandi
- 3. Presentation Agenda • Positives for you; • Some current trends; • The new engineers framework; • Conclusion and my tips
- 4. Positives for you The message from President Obama; • South Africa’s major role; • Dependency on the youth; • Growth in Africa • Mineral Resources • Electric power Africa for the Africans! Courage Innovation imagination
- 5. South Africa’s rolePositives for you
- 6. Growth in Africa • Population growth • Economic growth • Education • Health • Electric power Dependent on Mineral Resources Positives for you
- 7. World Population by 2050Positives for you
- 8. Economic growth and unemployment 2010 Positives for you
- 9. Sub Saharan Africa GDP growth forecasts Some coming off a low base. Positives for you
- 10. Sector share of change in real GDP.Positives for you
- 11. Electric Power • Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. SA) generates 28 Gw. • 21 countries < 200 Mw • South Africa 45% of continental total • 25% is unavailable at any one time On average the entire continent only produces enough power for one 60W light bulb per person for 3 hours per day. 48 countries North Africa 30% The rest 25% Inga 3 40 GW Positives for you
- 12. Rich Heritage Coal industry Wits Basin Bushveld Igneous Complex Positives for you
- 13. SA Coal Industry • 40% production from Witbank coalfield • Waterberg, Highveld, Ermelo, Utrecht • Richards Bay line and terminal • Top 7 producers in the world • Top 5 coal exporting countries 91 Mt export Positives for you
- 14. Wits Basin Engineering Excellence • Geo statistics – Kriging • Mechanical and electrical engineering • Geotechnical • Seismology • Ventilation and refrigeration
- 15. Bushveld Igneous Complex • 40% of worlds PGM production; • Iron, tin, chromium, titanium and vanadium; • Geotechnical challenges at depth; • Social challenges Eastern Western Northern Limb 67,340 square km Positives for you
- 16. Current trends • Slower economic growth in US and Europe; • Lower commodity prices /lower demand; • Exploration more expensive; • Role of China in world commodity markets; • Role of China in Africa;
- 18. Exploration more expensiveCurrent trends
- 20. China role in world iron ore market China 756 Mt in 2012 999 Mt in 2017 Western Europe 101 Mt in 2012 138 Mt in 2017 Current trends
- 21. China in AfricaCurrent trends China US$ 316 Bn. FDI Sub-Sahara 13.8% ME and North Africa 16.5%
- 23. China has arrived! • Metorex becomes Jinchuan; • Anvil becomes MMG Malachite Ltd (Minmetals); • BCX Gold increases shareholding in Gold One; • Orkney Mine sold to China African Precious Metals 90% shareholding China-Africa Development Fund 74 % CAPM 26% BBEE Current trends
- 24. Current trends (cont) • Write downs/impairments by major companies; • International engineering companies coming to Africa; • Lower returns on projects due to infrastructure requirements; • Emphasis on obtaining social licence to mine. Bechtel Worley Parsons Mott Macdonald Mozambique Botswana Cameroon
- 25. Impairments • Minas-Rio $4 Bn. on US 6 Bn. Purchase • Rio Tinto $14 Bn. $11 Bn. Alcan $3 Bn. on Rio Mozambique purchase of $3.5 Bn.; • Newcrest $6 Bn. $3.6 Bn. goodwill Lihir Mine; • Barrick (Lumwana) $3.8 Bn. on $ 7 Bn. purchase • Kinross $3 Bn. Tasiast, Mauritania on purchase of $ 7.1 Bn. 2 Mt in 2012 10 Mt in 2013 Higher than expected operating and sustaining costs Capital up 3.6 Bn to 8.8 Bn in 6 years Current trends
- 26. Social Licence to mine Sustainable development • Management of socio-economic risk; • Not a formal agreement; • Real or current credibility, reliability and acceptance of mining companies. Life of project exploration to closure Current Trends
- 27. New Engineers Framework CRIRSCO Template Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards
- 30. Conclusions and my tips • The world has changed; • The mining world has also changed; • Multi discipline approach required; • Inclusivity
- 31. Conclusions and my tips • Importance of experiential training; • Do not rush; • Multi-discipline training; • Find yourself a mentor; • Know your business Mining industry imperative. Gain respect from your peers
- 32. Questions?
Editor's Notes
- 255mt annually 75% consumed locally 77% SA energy needs92% of continent total
- World production 215 000kgs per year
- China imports 2/3 of worlds iron oreSeaborne trade 1 Bn tons
- 756 mt in 2012999 or 1 bn tons in 2017 size of current market
- 16.5 plus 13.8 30.3%Imports 70 bn mainly commoditiesExports 60 bn manufactured goods
- What the super engineer will ask is how did this happen, why were these projects so badly misjudged
- The super engineer of the future has to have a grasp of all these different aspects of a project. He will have experts in the various fields but some one has to put it all together.The Competent person with overall responsibility.
- Establish yourself make sure you really understand the business. 5 years at least. Do not rush.Gain the respect of your peers