The document provides a summary risk report for an oil and gas production project. It includes details of 33 tasks in the project plan with their remaining durations and costs. It then lists 10 risks identified for the project with descriptions. The highest rated risks are key resources becoming unavailable, reusing previous design work, and power outages. Mitigation strategies are proposed to lower the likelihood and impacts of the risks.
Wedding project management involves planning all aspects of a wedding within budget, schedule, and scope constraints. Key elements include finalizing vendor contracts, sending invitations, obtaining a marriage license, rehearsal, and reception logistics. A wedding scope statement outlines all deliverables such as guest list, travel, accommodations, flowers, favors, registry, rehearsal dinner, venue, attire, photography, and honeymoon. Careful management is needed to balance costs, timeline, and guest expectations for a successful wedding.
Z Ships International proposes a solution to reduce ship emissions and fuel costs to zero through the use of renewable energy technologies including wave energy conversion, solar panels, wind turbines, and magnetic generators. Their prototype retrofit system could save fishing vessels 40-50% in fuel costs and reduce emissions, with a return on investment period of 6 years. A 6-year business plan forecasts positive cash flows and a net present value of $56 million Canadian dollars from retrofitting and producing new ships.
This document provides references and supporting materials for a project management course. It includes a list of 6 main readings and 5 supporting readings on topics like project management, quantitative methods, and construction project management. It also outlines the course schedule covering areas such as project planning, risk, scheduling, and project control across 12 meetings. Tables show examples of cash flow analyses for different project scenarios calculating NPV and IRR.
PG&E plans to survey nearly 500,000 gas services in 2015 using advanced leak detection technology. The document analyzes the variables and costs associated with performing the surveys using the new technology. It estimates that performing 8 surveys could find over 68,000 leaks at a total cost of around $22 million, including capital investment, survey costs, and investigation and grading of leaks found. It also models how finding more leaks could reduce the monetary risk from undetected hazardous leaks.
The document provides information on project cost estimation and cash flow analysis for three different project proposals (Projects A, B, and C). Project A has a positive NPV of $6,145 and is deemed financially viable. Project B has a negative NPV of -$3,374 and is not recommended. Project C generates a consistent cash flow and positive NPV of $65,000, making it the best option.
This document summarizes the monthly performance review meeting of Palmal Group of Industries. Key discussion points included the performance of various departments against targets in areas like production, quality assurance, and human resources. Production performance was analyzed based on metrics like target achievement, efficiency, non-productive time, revenue, and machine utilization. Quality assurance performance was reviewed in terms of inspection pass rate, defects, and root cause analysis. Human resources performance included absenteeism rates. The meeting aimed to understand current performance, identify improvement areas, and set new targets for the next month.
This document summarizes an analysis of the Section 31 field in Tulare, California. It outlines an initial reservoir analysis, compares operating expenses of the current pilot to full field development, presents an ARIES reservoir simulation of a development plan, and discusses optimization opportunities. The analysis shows the field could be developed for $69 million in capital with a net present value of $96 million and rate of return of 85% at $65/bbl oil. Lower oil prices would decrease economics. The plan is to expand the pilot with steam injection and drilling to develop the field.
Wedding project management involves planning all aspects of a wedding within budget, schedule, and scope constraints. Key elements include finalizing vendor contracts, sending invitations, obtaining a marriage license, rehearsal, and reception logistics. A wedding scope statement outlines all deliverables such as guest list, travel, accommodations, flowers, favors, registry, rehearsal dinner, venue, attire, photography, and honeymoon. Careful management is needed to balance costs, timeline, and guest expectations for a successful wedding.
Z Ships International proposes a solution to reduce ship emissions and fuel costs to zero through the use of renewable energy technologies including wave energy conversion, solar panels, wind turbines, and magnetic generators. Their prototype retrofit system could save fishing vessels 40-50% in fuel costs and reduce emissions, with a return on investment period of 6 years. A 6-year business plan forecasts positive cash flows and a net present value of $56 million Canadian dollars from retrofitting and producing new ships.
This document provides references and supporting materials for a project management course. It includes a list of 6 main readings and 5 supporting readings on topics like project management, quantitative methods, and construction project management. It also outlines the course schedule covering areas such as project planning, risk, scheduling, and project control across 12 meetings. Tables show examples of cash flow analyses for different project scenarios calculating NPV and IRR.
PG&E plans to survey nearly 500,000 gas services in 2015 using advanced leak detection technology. The document analyzes the variables and costs associated with performing the surveys using the new technology. It estimates that performing 8 surveys could find over 68,000 leaks at a total cost of around $22 million, including capital investment, survey costs, and investigation and grading of leaks found. It also models how finding more leaks could reduce the monetary risk from undetected hazardous leaks.
The document provides information on project cost estimation and cash flow analysis for three different project proposals (Projects A, B, and C). Project A has a positive NPV of $6,145 and is deemed financially viable. Project B has a negative NPV of -$3,374 and is not recommended. Project C generates a consistent cash flow and positive NPV of $65,000, making it the best option.
This document summarizes the monthly performance review meeting of Palmal Group of Industries. Key discussion points included the performance of various departments against targets in areas like production, quality assurance, and human resources. Production performance was analyzed based on metrics like target achievement, efficiency, non-productive time, revenue, and machine utilization. Quality assurance performance was reviewed in terms of inspection pass rate, defects, and root cause analysis. Human resources performance included absenteeism rates. The meeting aimed to understand current performance, identify improvement areas, and set new targets for the next month.
This document summarizes an analysis of the Section 31 field in Tulare, California. It outlines an initial reservoir analysis, compares operating expenses of the current pilot to full field development, presents an ARIES reservoir simulation of a development plan, and discusses optimization opportunities. The analysis shows the field could be developed for $69 million in capital with a net present value of $96 million and rate of return of 85% at $65/bbl oil. Lower oil prices would decrease economics. The plan is to expand the pilot with steam injection and drilling to develop the field.
1) An oxygen fill process was yielding 90.8%, resulting in 30 bottles per week of rework or scrap. The goal was to improve yield to 95%, saving $57,700 annually.
2) Various experiments and improvements were tested, including inspecting bottles for surface defects, adjusting temperature sensors, replacing calculators, and re-torquing bottles.
3) As a result of implementing five primary countermeasures, the process yield improved to an average of 97%, exceeding the goal by 2% and entering a control phase to maintain results.
An introduction to SigmaXL's various Graphical tools
Established in 1998, SigmaXL Inc. is a leading provider of user friendly Excel Add-ins for Lean Six Sigma graphical and statistical tools and Monte Carlo simulation.
SigmaXL® customers include market leaders like Agilent, Diebold, FedEx, Microsoft, Motorola and Shell. SigmaXL® software is also used by numerous colleges, universities and government agencies.
Our flagship product, SigmaXL®, was designed from the ground up to be a cost-effective, powerful, but easy to use tool that enables users to measure, analyze, improve and control their service, transactional, and manufacturing processes. As an add-in to the already familiar Microsoft Excel, SigmaXL® is ideal for Lean Six Sigma training and application, or use in a college statistics course.
DiscoverSim™ enables you to quantify your risk through Monte Carlo simulation and minimize your risk with global optimization. Business decisions are often based on assumptions with a single point value estimate or an average, resulting in unexpected outcomes.
DiscoverSim™ allows you to model the uncertainty in your inputs so that you know what to expect in your outputs.
During the "Data Driven Strategies" course, me and my colleagues have set ourselves the challenge of predicting the probability of upselling through a logistic regression, using a bank dataframe sample, in order to determine an optimal target to maximize net profit from the planned marketing campaign.
Here you can find attached the final presentation of the project!
The document provides financial projections for Prince Auto Service for the first three years of operation, including projected sales, expenses, profits, cash flows, and balance sheets. It also outlines key assumptions like payroll tax rates and annual growth rates. An implementation plan with milestones and a list of required start-up equipment and their costs is included.
Boeing Undergraduate Case Competition 2016 Caleb Kwok
The document outlines Boeing's K.E.E. Concepts Initiative to improve efficiency across its operations over the next 10 years. The three-pronged strategy focuses on establishing a Kaizen-centered culture, improving supply chain efficiency, and increasing workplace efficiency. Key elements include adopting continuous improvement practices, transitioning suppliers to just-in-time processes, implementing 5S standards, and retraining employees as certain contracts are completed to control costs and risks as production needs change over time. Financial projections estimate the initiative will generate over $880 million in additional profits by 2026.
Forecast uncertain demand products
Choose the suitable place for production
Better forecast
Use both quantitative + qualitative method
Analyze historical data => forecast future trend
Use weighted factors (weighted average independent forecasts)
Shorten forecasting duration
This document contains solutions to problems from Chapter 16 on hybrid and derivative securities. The problems cover various topics such as lease cash flows, loan interest calculations, loan amortization schedules, comparing leases to purchases, determining values of convertible bonds and attached warrants, and calculating theoretical warrant values. The solutions provide numerical calculations and explanations for each problem.
The document is a summary dashboard that provides information on costs, revenues, contracts, and key metrics for an organization. It shows that over 1, 3, and 5 years, costs exceed revenues but revenues are projected to exceed costs in later years. It also indicates there are 7 contracts without milestones and 9 contracts without assigned tasks that require review. The dashboard displays information on the number and status of contracts segmented by industry and category.
The document is a summary dashboard that provides an overview of contracts and their performance. It shows that there are currently 73 contracts worth $13.9 million in revenue over the next 12 months but costing $35.7 million over the same period. It also indicates that there are 7 contracts without future milestones and 9 contracts without assigned tasks that require review. The contracts are spread across different industries and categories.
- The document presents the findings of a project analyzing customer data from a cellular service provider to predict customer churn and identify factors that influence churn.
- Several predictive models were tested and cost-benefit analysis was used to reduce misclassification costs and improve accuracy from the baseline of 73% to as high as 81%.
- Key factors found to influence churn were month-to-month contracts, tenure of 1-12 months, and not having online security services.
The document analyzes the optimal production quantities for sprayed, printed, and labeled bottles to maximize profit for a bottle decorator company. It outlines the supply chain process and variables, with the objective to maximize profit. The constraints and cost structures for each decoration type are defined. An Excel model is set up to calculate the maximum profit and binding variable values under the constraints. The optimal quantities are reported to be 144,733 labeled bottles, 12,181 printed bottles, and 59,451 sprayed bottles, yielding a maximum annual profit of $942,023.
The BCAD is considering building a new 11,550 square foot building at an estimated total project cost of $3.2 million. Financing options include a tax-exempt lease purchase structure with quarterly payments of $45,128.80 over 20 years at a fixed interest rate of 3.5%. A rent vs. own analysis shows that purchasing would result in annual operating costs of $230,758 compared to $159,906 for the current leased space, an additional cost of $70,852 per year. However, over the 20 year period the BCAD would gain over $1 million in equity from owning rather than continuing to lease.
Transportation Impact offers parcel negotiation services to reduce shipping costs for businesses. They have over 100 years of collective industry experience. Their process involves conducting an analysis of a customer's current shipping characteristics, monitoring accounts, and negotiating incentives with carriers. This leads to significant savings versus prior shipping contracts, often 25-50% lower rates. They also provide weekly reports tracking cost reductions and guarantee savings with no upfront fees charged.
Microeconomics-The cost of production.pptmayamonfori
The document discusses the costs of production, including:
1) It defines key terms like total cost, fixed cost, variable cost, average costs, and marginal cost and shows how they relate through examples.
2) The first example illustrates a farmer's production function and how costs like labor vary with quantity produced in the short run.
3) The second example more generally shows how average and marginal costs behave as quantity increases, with the average total cost curve typically being U-shaped.
This document discusses production costs and costs of operating a pizza business. It outlines the variable costs per pizza of labor ($2), ingredients ($0.75), and electricity ($0.25) and the fixed costs of rent ($2,800 per month) and insurance ($200 per month). If the business produces 1,000 pizzas, the total costs would be $6,000. The breakeven point is calculated at 750 pizzas. Marginal cost, total cost, and other cost concepts are also defined.
P9 & P10 cover chapters 5 of the textbook, which discusses time value of money concepts. Specifically:
- P9 covers single amounts, annuities, and the role of time value in finance. It provides examples of calculating future value, present value, and net present value.
- P10 extends the discussion to mixed cash flow streams, compounding interest more frequently than annually, and special applications of time value. It also provides additional examples of time value calculations.
- The key concepts covered are future value, present value, net present value, internal rate of return, and modified internal rate of return. Worked examples are provided to illustrate calculations for each.
P9 & P10 cover chapters 5 of the textbook, which discusses time value of money concepts. Specifically:
- P9 covers single amounts, annuities, and the role of time value in finance. It provides examples of calculating future value, present value, and net present value.
- P10 extends the discussion to mixed cash flow streams, compounding interest more frequently than annually, and special applications of time value. It also provides additional examples of time value calculations.
- The key concepts covered are future value, present value, net present value, internal rate of return, and modified internal rate of return. Worked examples are provided to illustrate calculations for each concept.
1) An oxygen fill process was yielding 90.8%, resulting in 30 bottles per week of rework or scrap. The goal was to improve yield to 95%, saving $57,700 annually.
2) Various experiments and improvements were tested, including inspecting bottles for surface defects, adjusting temperature sensors, replacing calculators, and re-torquing bottles.
3) As a result of implementing five primary countermeasures, the process yield improved to an average of 97%, exceeding the goal by 2% and entering a control phase to maintain results.
An introduction to SigmaXL's various Graphical tools
Established in 1998, SigmaXL Inc. is a leading provider of user friendly Excel Add-ins for Lean Six Sigma graphical and statistical tools and Monte Carlo simulation.
SigmaXL® customers include market leaders like Agilent, Diebold, FedEx, Microsoft, Motorola and Shell. SigmaXL® software is also used by numerous colleges, universities and government agencies.
Our flagship product, SigmaXL®, was designed from the ground up to be a cost-effective, powerful, but easy to use tool that enables users to measure, analyze, improve and control their service, transactional, and manufacturing processes. As an add-in to the already familiar Microsoft Excel, SigmaXL® is ideal for Lean Six Sigma training and application, or use in a college statistics course.
DiscoverSim™ enables you to quantify your risk through Monte Carlo simulation and minimize your risk with global optimization. Business decisions are often based on assumptions with a single point value estimate or an average, resulting in unexpected outcomes.
DiscoverSim™ allows you to model the uncertainty in your inputs so that you know what to expect in your outputs.
During the "Data Driven Strategies" course, me and my colleagues have set ourselves the challenge of predicting the probability of upselling through a logistic regression, using a bank dataframe sample, in order to determine an optimal target to maximize net profit from the planned marketing campaign.
Here you can find attached the final presentation of the project!
The document provides financial projections for Prince Auto Service for the first three years of operation, including projected sales, expenses, profits, cash flows, and balance sheets. It also outlines key assumptions like payroll tax rates and annual growth rates. An implementation plan with milestones and a list of required start-up equipment and their costs is included.
Boeing Undergraduate Case Competition 2016 Caleb Kwok
The document outlines Boeing's K.E.E. Concepts Initiative to improve efficiency across its operations over the next 10 years. The three-pronged strategy focuses on establishing a Kaizen-centered culture, improving supply chain efficiency, and increasing workplace efficiency. Key elements include adopting continuous improvement practices, transitioning suppliers to just-in-time processes, implementing 5S standards, and retraining employees as certain contracts are completed to control costs and risks as production needs change over time. Financial projections estimate the initiative will generate over $880 million in additional profits by 2026.
Forecast uncertain demand products
Choose the suitable place for production
Better forecast
Use both quantitative + qualitative method
Analyze historical data => forecast future trend
Use weighted factors (weighted average independent forecasts)
Shorten forecasting duration
This document contains solutions to problems from Chapter 16 on hybrid and derivative securities. The problems cover various topics such as lease cash flows, loan interest calculations, loan amortization schedules, comparing leases to purchases, determining values of convertible bonds and attached warrants, and calculating theoretical warrant values. The solutions provide numerical calculations and explanations for each problem.
The document is a summary dashboard that provides information on costs, revenues, contracts, and key metrics for an organization. It shows that over 1, 3, and 5 years, costs exceed revenues but revenues are projected to exceed costs in later years. It also indicates there are 7 contracts without milestones and 9 contracts without assigned tasks that require review. The dashboard displays information on the number and status of contracts segmented by industry and category.
The document is a summary dashboard that provides an overview of contracts and their performance. It shows that there are currently 73 contracts worth $13.9 million in revenue over the next 12 months but costing $35.7 million over the same period. It also indicates that there are 7 contracts without future milestones and 9 contracts without assigned tasks that require review. The contracts are spread across different industries and categories.
- The document presents the findings of a project analyzing customer data from a cellular service provider to predict customer churn and identify factors that influence churn.
- Several predictive models were tested and cost-benefit analysis was used to reduce misclassification costs and improve accuracy from the baseline of 73% to as high as 81%.
- Key factors found to influence churn were month-to-month contracts, tenure of 1-12 months, and not having online security services.
The document analyzes the optimal production quantities for sprayed, printed, and labeled bottles to maximize profit for a bottle decorator company. It outlines the supply chain process and variables, with the objective to maximize profit. The constraints and cost structures for each decoration type are defined. An Excel model is set up to calculate the maximum profit and binding variable values under the constraints. The optimal quantities are reported to be 144,733 labeled bottles, 12,181 printed bottles, and 59,451 sprayed bottles, yielding a maximum annual profit of $942,023.
The BCAD is considering building a new 11,550 square foot building at an estimated total project cost of $3.2 million. Financing options include a tax-exempt lease purchase structure with quarterly payments of $45,128.80 over 20 years at a fixed interest rate of 3.5%. A rent vs. own analysis shows that purchasing would result in annual operating costs of $230,758 compared to $159,906 for the current leased space, an additional cost of $70,852 per year. However, over the 20 year period the BCAD would gain over $1 million in equity from owning rather than continuing to lease.
Transportation Impact offers parcel negotiation services to reduce shipping costs for businesses. They have over 100 years of collective industry experience. Their process involves conducting an analysis of a customer's current shipping characteristics, monitoring accounts, and negotiating incentives with carriers. This leads to significant savings versus prior shipping contracts, often 25-50% lower rates. They also provide weekly reports tracking cost reductions and guarantee savings with no upfront fees charged.
Microeconomics-The cost of production.pptmayamonfori
The document discusses the costs of production, including:
1) It defines key terms like total cost, fixed cost, variable cost, average costs, and marginal cost and shows how they relate through examples.
2) The first example illustrates a farmer's production function and how costs like labor vary with quantity produced in the short run.
3) The second example more generally shows how average and marginal costs behave as quantity increases, with the average total cost curve typically being U-shaped.
This document discusses production costs and costs of operating a pizza business. It outlines the variable costs per pizza of labor ($2), ingredients ($0.75), and electricity ($0.25) and the fixed costs of rent ($2,800 per month) and insurance ($200 per month). If the business produces 1,000 pizzas, the total costs would be $6,000. The breakeven point is calculated at 750 pizzas. Marginal cost, total cost, and other cost concepts are also defined.
P9 & P10 cover chapters 5 of the textbook, which discusses time value of money concepts. Specifically:
- P9 covers single amounts, annuities, and the role of time value in finance. It provides examples of calculating future value, present value, and net present value.
- P10 extends the discussion to mixed cash flow streams, compounding interest more frequently than annually, and special applications of time value. It also provides additional examples of time value calculations.
- The key concepts covered are future value, present value, net present value, internal rate of return, and modified internal rate of return. Worked examples are provided to illustrate calculations for each.
P9 & P10 cover chapters 5 of the textbook, which discusses time value of money concepts. Specifically:
- P9 covers single amounts, annuities, and the role of time value in finance. It provides examples of calculating future value, present value, and net present value.
- P10 extends the discussion to mixed cash flow streams, compounding interest more frequently than annually, and special applications of time value. It also provides additional examples of time value calculations.
- The key concepts covered are future value, present value, net present value, internal rate of return, and modified internal rate of return. Worked examples are provided to illustrate calculations for each concept.
1. Summary Risk Report
Plan Summary
Title Copy of ExampleRegister-DownstreamOG.plan
File name C:UsersburivoyYandexDiskRisksCopy of ExampleRegister-DownstreamOG.plan
Plan finish date 11 Mar 09 Tasks with no progress 33
Plan remaining duration 1247 In progress tasks 0
Normal tasks 26 Completed tasks 0
Summary tasks 5 Total tasks 33
Milestone tasks 2 Resource assignments 44
Hammock tasks 0 Budget cost $67,975,229
Monitor tasks 0 Remaining cost $73,654,301
Calendars 4 Actual cost $0
Links 37 Total cost $73,654,301
Resources 10
2. Risk Inputs
Task ID: A120 Remaining Duration: 18
Task Description: Tap well-head Remaining Cost: $54
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 16
Most Likely 18
Maximum 20
Notes
Task ID: A160 Remaining Duration: 42
Task Description: Gas separator Remaining Cost: $1,457,330
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 37
Most Likely 42
Maximum 46
Notes
Task ID: A180 Remaining Duration: 105
Task Description: FWKO Tank Remaining Cost: $1,751,575
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 100
Most Likely 105
Maximum 137
Notes
Task ID: A190 Remaining Duration: 85
Task Description: Main water tank Remaining Cost: $751,020
Duration Uncertainty
3. Distribution Triangle
Minimum 76
Most Likely 85
Maximum 94
Notes
Task ID: A230 Remaining Duration: 50
Task Description: Cooling ponds Remaining Cost: $676,750
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 45
Most Likely 50
Maximum 55
Notes
Task ID: A250 Remaining Duration: 140
Task Description: Production tanks Remaining Cost: $4,803,500
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 133
Most Likely 140
Maximum 182
Notes
Task ID: A260 Remaining Duration: 145
Task Description: Production pumps Remaining Cost: $3,131,595
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 129
Most Likely 145
Maximum 160
Notes
5. Distribution Triangle
Minimum 44
Most Likely 46
Maximum 60
Notes
Task ID: A210 Remaining Duration: 80
Task Description: Auxilary pumps Remaining Cost: $2,002,000
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 71
Most Likely 80
Maximum 88
Notes
Task ID: A220 Remaining Duration: 145
Task Description: Water treatment facility Remaining Cost: $2,502,610
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 138
Most Likely 145
Maximum 189
Notes
Task ID: A200 Remaining Duration: 71
Task Description: Secondary water tank Remaining Cost: $346,585
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 67
Most Likely 71
Maximum 92
Notes
6. Task ID: A150 Remaining Duration: 57
Task Description: Low pressure stack Remaining Cost: $1,150,855
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 51
Most Likely 57
Maximum 68
Notes
Task ID: A320 Remaining Duration: 131
Task Description: Depressurizing station Remaining Cost: $6,001,310
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 118
Most Likely 131
Maximum 157
Notes
Task ID: A330 Remaining Duration: 136
Task Description: Main pipline to terminal Remaining Cost: $17,013,600
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 121
Most Likely 136
Maximum 150
Notes
Task ID: A350 Remaining Duration: 30
Task Description: Field production facility tests Remaining Cost: $450
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 27
Most Likely 30
Notes
7. Maximum 36
Task ID: A380 Remaining Duration: 9
Task Description: Open pipeline to terminal Remaining Cost: $675
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 8
Most Likely 9
Maximum 10
Notes
Task ID: A370 Remaining Duration: 19
Task Description: Level PS1 tanks Remaining Cost: $152
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 17
Most Likely 19
Maximum 21
Notes
Task ID: A130 Remaining Duration: 0
Task Description: Construct Field Production Facility Remaining Cost: $4,109,335
Task ID: A170 Remaining Duration: 0
Task Description: Water Flow Remaining Cost: $8,030,540
Task ID: A240 Remaining Duration: 0
Task Description: Crude Flow Remaining Cost: $57,262,775
Task ID: A340 Remaining Duration: 0
8. Task Description: Production Remaining Cost: $1,537
Task ID: A300 Remaining Duration: 202
Task Description: Pumpstation 4 Remaining Cost: $6,009,090
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 180
Most Likely 202
Maximum 222
Notes
Task ID: A290 Remaining Duration: 201
Task Description: Pumpstation 3 Remaining Cost: $5,258,040
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 181
Most Likely 201
Maximum 241
Notes
Task ID: A280 Remaining Duration: 197
Task Description: Pumpstation 2 Remaining Cost: $5,131,895
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 187
Most Likely 197
Maximum 256
Notes
Task ID: A270 Remaining Duration: 195
Task Description: Pumpstation 1 Remaining Cost: $5,008,775
Duration Uncertainty
9. Distribution Triangle
Minimum 176
Most Likely 195
Maximum 234
Notes
Task ID: A400 Remaining Duration: 5
Task Description: Vendor installation Remaining Cost: $60
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 4
Most Likely 5
Maximum 6
Notes
Task ID: A410 Remaining Duration: 12
Task Description: Expedite delivery Remaining Cost: $250,000
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 11
Most Likely 12
Maximum 13
Notes
Task ID: A420 Remaining Duration: 15
Task Description:
Source suitable uninterruptible power
generators
Remaining Cost: $4,000,000
Duration Uncertainty
Distribution Triangle
Minimum 14
Most Likely 15
Maximum 18
Notes
10. Templated Quick Risk
Field Value Tasks Distribution Min Likely Max Correlation Description
Uncertainty = L 12 Triangle 89% 100% 110% none
Uncertainty = M 7 Triangle 90% 100% 120% none
Uncertainty = H 7 Triangle 95% 100% 130% none
Probabilistic Calendars
Calendar: WeatherDelay
From To Apply to Block size (days) Non working probability
31/Oct/05 01/Oct/05 Every year 7 15%
30/Nov/05 01/Nov/05 Every year 7 15%
31/Dec/05 01/Dec/05 Every year 7 20%
31/Jan/06 01/Jan/06 Every year 7 30%
28/Feb/06 01/Feb/06 Every year 7 30%
31/Mar/06 01/Mar/06 Every year 7 25%
30/Apr/06 01/Apr/06 Every year 7 15%
31/May/06 01/May/06 Every year 7 10%
30/Jun/06 01/Jun/06 Every year 7 5%
31/Jul/06 01/Jul/06 Every year 7 5%
31/Aug/06 01/Aug/06 Every year 7 10%
30/Sep/06 01/Sep/06 Every year 7 10%
Resources
No Data
11. Risk Outputs
Project Finish Distribution Graph
Title Value
Minimum 09 Feb 09
Maximum 13 Jul 09
Mean 27 Apr 09
Median 28 Apr 09
Mode 07 May 09
Max Hits 97
Std Deviation 27.59
Variance 761.5
Skewness -0.051
13. Project Cost Distribution Graph
Title Value
Minimum $73,653,005
Maximum $73,660,741
Mean $73,656,672
Median $73,656,639
Mode $73,656,750
Max Hits 153
Std Deviation 1,319
Variance 1,739,116
Skewness 0.115
Kurtosis 2.878
Bar Width: $500
14. Project NPV Distribution Graph
Not Checked
Project IRR Distribution Graph
Not Checked
Project Duration Sensitivity Tornado Graph
The duration sensitivity of a task is a measure of the correlation between its duration and the
duration (or dates) of the project (or a key task or summary).
15. Project Cost Sensitivity Tornado Graph
The cost sensitivity of a task is a measure of the correlation between its cost and the cost of the
project (or a key task or summary).
16. Project SSI Tornado Graph
The schedule sensitivity index of a task is calculated by multiplying its criticality index by the ratio of
its variance against the variance of the project (or key task).
17. Project Criticality Tornado Graph
The criticality index of a task is the proportion of the iterations in which it was critical.
18. Project Cruciality Tornado Graph
The cruciality of a task is calculated by multiplying its duration sensitivity by its criticality index.
19. Risk Register
Risk Register Summary
Total Risks 10
Proposed Risks 0
Open Risks 10
High 4
Medium 3
Low 2
Negligible 1
Impacted (Closed) Risks 0
Managed (Closed) Risks 0
Rejected (Closed) Risks 0
Threats 9
Opportunities 1
Risk Scoring
Probability Scale
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Up to 10% 10% to 35% 35% to 60% 60% to 75% 75% or higher
Impact Scales and Types
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Schedule* Up to 30 30 to 60 60 to 90 90 to 180 180 or higher
Cost* Up to $500,000 $500,000 to $1,000,000 $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 $1,500,000 to $2,500,000 $2,500,000 or higher
Performance*
Failure to meet a minor
acceptance criteria
Failure to meet more than one
minor acceptance criteria
Shortfall in meeting
acceptance criteria
Significant shortfall in meeting
acceptance criteria
Failure to meet acceptance
criteria
* means impact is used in scoring
Probability and Impact Scoring (PID)
Risk Score is based on: Highest Impact
Impact
20. Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Very High 5 9 18 36 72
High 4 7 14 28 56
Medium 3 5 10 20 40
Low 2 3 6 12 24
Very Low 1 1 2 4 8
Key
Up to 7 7 to 23 23 or higher
Risk Matrix
Pre-Mitigation
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Very High
10 - Reuse previous design
work
High
5 - Power outtage,
3 - Attack on pipeline
4 - Key resource
unavailable
Medium
7 - Rework required for
assembly and integration
Low 8 - Testing fails 9 - Design changes
1 - Poor understanding and
detail in specification
Very Low
2 - Auxilary pump system
failure
21. Post-Mitigation
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Very High
High 5 - Power outtage 9 - Design changes
10 - Reuse previous design
work
Medium
Low 8 - Testing fails 3 - Attack on pipeline
Very Low
4 - Key resource
unavailable,
1 - Poor understanding and
detail in specification
Risks
ID Title
4 Key resource unavailable
Status Owner
Open DP
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Crude Flow 07 Jan 2006 07 Jan 2006 $0
Cause Effect
Due to other project commitments. Delay could occur on completion of key activities.
Description
Key resources may be unavailable.
22. Pre-mitigation Score 56 High
Post-mitigation Score 1 Low
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
H 67%
Post-
mitigation
VL 5%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation L
Post-mitigation L
Cost Pre-mitigation L
Post-mitigation L
Performance Pre-mitigation VH
Post-mitigation L
Mitigation Title: Change resource assignment policy
Description Source additional specialists
Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $4,500,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 12 Dec 2005 Target Finish Date 12 Dec 2005
Description Overbook key resources
Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $3,250,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 03 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 03 Jan 2006
Description Increase contract incentive
Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $800,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 07 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 07 Jan 2006
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A340 - Production
Schedule Triangle 10 15 20
Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal
Schedule Triangle 10 15 20
Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
Impacting Task: A260 - Production pumps
Schedule Triangle 10 15 20
Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
24. ID Title
10 Reuse previous design work
Status Owner
Open TS
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Gas
separation
12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0
Cause Effect
Due to the similar nature of the design. Saving time and money during the initial design phase.
Description
It may be possible to use designs created for previous project.
Pre-mitigation Score 36 High
Post-mitigation Score 28 High
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
VH 87%
Post-
mitigation
H 67%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Cost Pre-mitigation H
Post-mitigation H
Performance Pre-mitigation N
Post-mitigation N
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal
Schedule Triangle 60 75 90
Cost Triangle $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000
Risk Plan: Post-mitigation
Impacting Task: A330 - Main pipline to terminal
Schedule Triangle 60 75 90
Cost Triangle $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000
25. ID Title
5 Power outtage
Status Owner
Open TR
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact 05 Jan 2006 05 Jan 2006 $0
Cause Effect
Government power plant failure. Power dependent activities will be delayed.
Description
It may be necessary to find an alternative or supplemental power source.
Pre-mitigation Score 28 High
Post-mitigation Score 4 Low
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
H 67%
Post-
mitigation
H 67%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation H
Post-mitigation VL
Cost Pre-mitigation H
Post-mitigation N
Performance Pre-mitigation VL
Post-mitigation N
Mitigation Title: Source alternative power supply
Description Source suitable uninterruptible power generators
Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $4,000,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID A420 Task Description Source suitable uninterruptible power generators
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899
Description Expedite delivery
Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $250,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID A410 Task Description Expedite delivery
Start Date 02 Nov 2005 Finish Date 17 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899
Description Vendor fees for travel and installation
Responsibility TR Status Planned Mitigated Cost $60 Actual Cost $0
TaskID A400 Task Description Vendor installation
Start Date 18 Nov 2005 Finish Date 24 Nov 2005 Target Start Date 30 Dec 1899 Target Finish Date 30 Dec 1899
29. ID Title
3 Attack on pipeline
Status Owner
Open DP
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Production 15 Nov 2005 15 Nov 2005 $0
Cause Effect
Due to lack of stability in the region local guerillas may attack the pipeline. Delay in bringing the field production facility online.
Description
Local guerilla groups have attacked other pipelines in the past. As a sort of ransome, they will repeatedly threaten to attack unless paid-off by the government or
the foriegn contractors.
Pre-mitigation Score 28 High
Post-mitigation Score 12 Medium
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
H 67%
Post-
mitigation
L 22%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation L
Post-mitigation M
Cost Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation L
Performance Pre-mitigation H
Post-mitigation H
Mitigation Title: Source extra security with local government
Description Use standard form of contract
Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $400,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005
Description Pre contract negotiation
Responsibility DP Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $100,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 15 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 15 Nov 2005
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A380 - Open pipeline to terminal
Schedule Triangle 15 22 30
31. ID Title
1 Poor understanding and detail in specification
Status Owner
Open TS
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Crude Flow 01 Nov 2006 01 Nov 2006 $0
Cause Effect
Due to poor understanding and detail in the initial specification. Could delay the project schedule and increase cost.
Description
The design is more complex than expected.
Pre-mitigation Score 12 Medium
Post-mitigation Score 1 Low
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
L 22%
Post-
mitigation
VL 5%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation H
Post-mitigation L
Cost Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation L
Performance Pre-mitigation VL
Post-mitigation VL
Mitigation Title: Introduce penalties for design changes
Description Include penalties for any design changes
Responsibility TS Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $10,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005
Description Use supported design methodologies
Responsibility TS Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $0 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A270 - Pumpstation 1
Schedule Triangle 12 19 25
34. ID Title
7 Rework required for assembly and integration
Status Owner
Open BJ
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact 01 Nov 2006 01 Nov 2006 $0
Cause Effect
Due to incorrect tolerances in manufacturing. Which would delay the time taken to complete the assembly.
Description
The assembly may need to be reworked to allow a satisfactory integration of the components.
Pre-mitigation Score 10 Medium
Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
M 47%
Post-
mitigation
N 0%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Cost Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Performance Pre-mitigation L
Post-mitigation L
Mitigation Title: Check manufacturing tolerances
Description Check all manufacturing equipment can handle required tolerances
Responsibility BJ Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $200,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 01 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 01 Nov 2005
Description Communicate importance of tolerances to manufacturing
Responsibility BJ Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $0 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack
Schedule Triangle 15 18 22
36. ID Title
2 Auxilary pump system failure
Status Owner
Open RB
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Water Flow 02 Jan 2006 02 Jan 2006 $0
Cause Effect
Due to the novel nature of the auxilary pump system. Auxilary pump system would need to be modified.
Description
There may be a major failure of auxilary pump system.
Pre-mitigation Score 8 Medium
Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
VL 5%
Post-
mitigation
N 0%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation VH
Post-mitigation VH
Cost Pre-mitigation VH
Post-mitigation VH
Performance Pre-mitigation VH
Post-mitigation VH
Mitigation Title: Improve initial specification
Description Spend more money on the initial specification
Responsibility RB Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $250,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 10 Nov 2005 Target Finish Date 10 Nov 2005
Description Use off-the-shelf pump systems
Responsibility RB Status Proposed Mitigated Cost $500,000 Actual Cost $0
TaskID Task Description undefined
Start Date 12 Oct 2005 Finish Date 12 Oct 2005 Target Start Date 02 Jan 2006 Target Finish Date 02 Jan 2006
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A210 - Auxilary pumps
Schedule Triangle 90 135 180
38. ID Title
9 Design changes
Status Owner
Open LM
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Gas
separation
12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0
Cause Effect
Due to client changing their mind. Which would delay the schedule.
Description
The design needs to be altered.
Pre-mitigation Score 6 Low
Post-mitigation Score 14 Medium
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
L 22%
Post-
mitigation
H 67%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Cost Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Performance Pre-mitigation N
Post-mitigation N
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A140 - High pressure stack
Schedule Triangle 20 25 30
Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
Impacting Task: A150 - Low pressure stack
Schedule Triangle 20 25 30
Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
Impacting Task: A160 - Gas separator
Schedule Triangle 20 25 30
Cost Triangle $333,333 $416,667 $500,000
40. ID Title
8 Testing fails
Status Owner
Open LM
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact.Production 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0
Cause Effect
Due to problems in design and fabrication. Rework would be required and retesting would need to take place.
Description
Testing fails to meet the clients performance criteria.
Pre-mitigation Score 3 Low
Post-mitigation Score 3 Low
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
L 22%
Post-
mitigation
L 22%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation L
Post-mitigation L
Cost Pre-mitigation L
Post-mitigation L
Performance Pre-mitigation N
Post-mitigation N
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A350 - Field production facility tests
Schedule Triangle 10 15 20
Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
Impacting Task: A360 - Level production tanks
Schedule Triangle 10 15 20
Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
Impacting Task: A370 - Level PS1 tanks
Schedule Triangle 10 15 20
Cost Triangle $166,667 $250,000 $333,333
Risk Plan: Post-mitigation
42. ID Title
6 Fabrication contractor goes bust
Status Owner
Open TR
RBS Start Date End Date Exposure
Project Level Impact 12 Oct 2005 12 Oct 2005 $0
Cause Effect
Due to poor business conditions in the current fabrication market.
A new fabrication company would need to be sourced causing delay to the
fabrication tasks.
Description
The fabrication contractor may go bust.
Pre-mitigation Score 0 Negligible
Post-mitigation Score 0 Negligible
Qualitative Quantitative
Pre-
mitigation
N 0%
Post-
mitigation
N 0%
Qualitative
Schedule Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Cost Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Performance Pre-mitigation M
Post-mitigation M
Risk Plan: Pre-mitigation
Impacting Task: A170 - Water Flow
Schedule Triangle 30 37 45
Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000
Impacting Task: A240 - Crude Flow
Schedule Triangle 30 37 45
Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000
Risk Plan: Post-mitigation
Impacting Task: A170 - Water Flow
Schedule Triangle 30 37 45
Cost Triangle $500,000 $625,000 $750,000