Continuing our series on how not to be your own worst enemy. This presentation looks at over optimism when investing.

1. SUCCESSFUL
INVESTING
“How not to be your own worst enemy”

2. OVER OPTIMISM

3. INTRODUCTION
1. Optimism is ingrained in the human psyche
2. Vast majority always look on the bright side of life

4. INTRODUCTION
 Consider:
 74% of 600 fund managers thought they were above average
 70% of analysts think they are better than their peers (of the
same number 91% had recommendations as buys or holds in
February 2008)
 80% of students think they will finish in the top 50% of their
class

5. INTRODUCTION
 Why?
 Tendency to overrate our abilities is amplified by the illusion of control
 We believe we can influence the outcome:
 30 coin tosses, rigged so everyone would get 50% right
 Those who started getting the correct answers first rated themselves better than
those who started off badly
 Optimism is not bad, but when we overate our abilities then it becomes hope

6. LET’S SEE HOW WE CAN BEAT OVER-OPTIMISM……
“Optimism may well be a
great life strategy.
However, hope isn’t a good
investment strategy” –
James Montier

7. SELF-SERVICING BIAS
People will:
 Act in ways that serve their perceived self invest, i.e. “don’t ask
a barber if you need a hair cut”
 Read the things that support their views and talking to those
who support their view
 Delete out dissenting voices or opinions

8. SELF-SERVICING BIAS
“But you need to kill the company”

9. OPTIMISM THE RIGHT WAY
 On average the 5 year projections of analysts for
their ten best growth stories, did no better over 5
years than their 10 worst stocks
 In 4 out of the last 9 years analysts haven’t been able
to predict whether a stock will be up or down

10. OPTIMISM THE RIGHT WAY
 On average the 5 year projections of analysts for
their ten best growth stories, did no better over 5
years than their 10 worst stocks
 In 4 out of the last 9 years analysts haven’t been able
to predict whether a stock will be up or down

11. OPTIMISM THE RIGHT WAY
 Why?
 Focus on predication compounder
 1) forecast economy 2) forecast interest rates 3) sector performance and 4)
individual stock performance
 If you are right 70% of the time (which is high) this means even with variables you will
only be right 24% of the time
Consider the right way……..

12. OPTIMISM THE RIGHT WAY
 Ben Graham
 Analysts should be penetrative
 They should understand the nature of the business
 They should try to gauge the intrinsic worth of the business
 They shouldn’t try to guess the unknowable future

13. OPTIMISM THE RIGHT WAY -
SUMMARY
 To be successful we need to:
 Give up on that idea that we are investing “knowing”
the future
 Focus in on what we can know
 Accept that it is better to approximately right rather
than entirely wrong