This document discusses success factors for CDM/PoA project development and achieving registration before the end of 2012. It notes that the average time from starting the validation process to requesting registration is over 800 days, while the average time from requesting to achieving registration is around 170 days. Due to these long timelines and falling carbon prices, most buyers are no longer signing contracts for CERs. For MENA projects, the document recommends focusing on projects that can start validation quickly, conducting thorough additionality analyses, and engaging expert advisors to help navigate new guidance from the UNFCCC. The goal is to realistically assess a project's chances of achieving registration by the end of 2012.

1. Success factors for CDM/PoA project
development and how to achieve
registration before end 2012
Matthias Krey, Perspectives GmbH
17.11.2011
Workshop “Existing CDM Potential and Perspectives for
Carbon Finance in
RCREEE Member States beyond 2012”,
Cairo, Egypt, 17. November 2011
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc © 2011 Perspectives GmbH

2. Registered single CDM projects and emissions reductions
ktCO2e/yr
Registered CDM Projects (single projects) Country 2008-12
Essaouira wind power project Morocco 156
Tétouan Wind Farm Project for Lafarge Cement Plant Morocco 29
“Photovoltaic kits to light up rural households in Morocco” Morocco 39
Djebel Chekir Landfill Gas Recovery and Flaring Project – Tunisia Tunisia 370
Catalytic N2O destruction project in the tail gas of the Nitric Acid Plant of Abu Qir Fertilizer Co. Egypt 1066
Onyx Alexandria Landfill Gas Capture and Flaring Project Egypt 371
Landfill Gas Recovery and Flaring for 9 bundled landfills in Tunisia Tunisia 318
Zafarana Wind Power Plant Project Egypt 249
Egyptian Brick Factory GHG Reduction Project Egypt 430
OULJA Landfill gas recovery and flaring Morocco 32
Waste Gas-based Cogeneration Project at Alexandria Carbon Black Co., Egypt Egypt 110
Fuel Switching Project of the Aqaba Thermal Power Station (ATPS) Jordan 397
Dir Baalbeh Landfill Gas Capture Project in Homs Syria 68
Surac Bagasse Plant Project Morocco 32
Tal Dman Landfill Gas Capture Project in Aleppo Syria 65
Reduction of Methane Emissions from Ruseifeh Landfill Jordan 37
Zafarana KfW IV Wind Farm Project, Arab Republic of Egypt Egypt 172
Zafarana 8 - Wind Power Plant Project, Arab Republic of Egypt Egypt 210
Emissions reduction through partial substitution of fossil fuels with renewable plantation biomass and biomass residues Egypt 417
in CEMEX Assiut Cement Plant
Catalytic N2O abatement project in the tail gas of the nitric acid production plant in G.F.C,Syria Syria 188
Fuel Switching from Mazout to Natural Gas in Misr Fine Spinning & Weaving and Misr Beida Dyers at Kafr El Dawar Egypt 45
Tanger wind power project. Morocco 334
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3. Registered PoAs and emissions reductions
Registered CDM Project Country ktCO2e/yr2008-12
Solar Water Heater Programme in Tunisia Tunisia 7,2
Solar Water Heater Programme in Tunisia – CPA 1 Tunisia 7,2
Egypt Vehicle Scrapping and Recycling Program Egypt 20,6
Greater Cairo Region Taxi Scrapping and Recycling Project Egypt 20,6
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4. It is about timing…
Average time from start comment to request registration
800
700
600
500
Days
400
300
200
100
0
Jan/04
Jan/05
Jan/06
Jan/07
Jan/08
Jan/09
Jan/10
Sep/04
Sep/05
Sep/06
Sep/07
Sep/08
Sep/09
Sep/10
May/04
May/05
May/06
May/07
May/08
May/09
May/10
Source: UNEP Risoe: CDM database
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5. It is about timing…
Average time from request registration until registration
300
250
200
Days
150
100
50
0
Jun/05
Jun/06
Jun/07
Jun/08
Jun/09
Jun/10
Aug/05
Dec/05
Dec/06
Dec/07
Dec/08
Dec/09
Feb/06
Aug/06
Feb/07
Aug/07
Feb/08
Aug/08
Feb/09
Aug/09
Feb/10
Aug/10
Oct/05
Apr/06
Oct/06
Apr/07
Oct/07
Apr/08
Oct/08
Apr/09
Oct/09
Apr/10
Oct/10
Source: UNEP Risoe: CDM database
93 days + 170 days = 263 days = ~8.5 months
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6. …and contracts
 The large majority of CER buyers does not sign ERPAs anymore
since a few months
- due to the risk that the project might not get registered
- recently also due to falling CER prices
 Even if you have concluded a Letter of Intent, probability is slim that
you will find a buyer
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7. Implications for MENA CDM projects
 Assume further delays towards end of 2012
- Submissions for registrations will pile up at the UNFCCC
- DOEs might face capacity constraints
 Focus on projects
- which have started global stakeholder, or
- for which you can prepare a good PDD quickly
 Make a conscious decision of „Yes or No“
 Thorough analysis of status quo
- Is the project 100% applicable to use an approved
methodology?
- Conduct on-site visit as soon as possible and prepare it well
- Identify the most critical topics afterwards (usually early
consideration/additionality)
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8. Implications for MENA CDM projects
 Keep in mind that success of registration will be different then you
think (especially for projects in validation since a long time)
- new guidances/guidines apply that are usually more stringent; e.g.
Starts to question additionality of fossil-fuel fired greenfield power
plants
 Mobilise expert support
- Is your ERPA counterparty willing to support you?
- Are you willing to involve expert advisors?
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9. Many Thanks for
Your Attention!
Matthias Krey, Perspectives GmbH
17.11.2011
Workshop “Existing CDM Potential and
Perspectives for Carbon Finance in RCREEE
Member States beyond 2012”,
Cairo, Egypt, 17. November 2011
www.perspectives.cc · info@perspectives.cc © 2011 Perspectives GmbH