This presentation is based on my research about Big Money movement and their influence to Stock Price Movement especially in Indonesian Stock Exchange

1. Introduction to
Stock Trading Based on
Big Money Movement
by Toto Tjung
Independent Stock Trader
fb : tototjung@gmail.com
PrimaTradeIDX@yahoogroups.com
Twitter @tototjung
+6281808579138

2. Table of
Content
s
 Stock Trading Goal
 Stock Trading Approaches
 Fundamental Analysis
 Technical Analysis
 Trading by Rumor
 Astrology
 Trading By Big Money Movement
 Why Big Money
 How to trace Big Money
 Basic Rule
 How to Use
 Study Case

3. Stock Trading Goal
#3
Got profit by Selling Stock price
above it's buying price

4. Stock Trading Approaches
#4
1. Fundamentals Analysis
2. Technical Analysis
3. Rumor
4. Astrology
5. Big Money Movement
(Bandarmology)

5. Fundamentals Analysis
#5
Advantages
 Based on Company Financial Performances and
Management
 Used a lot By Big Trading Company to forecast
target price
 With Good Audit and Control, difficult to cheat
with the data without anybody know

6. Fundamentals Analysis
#6
Disadvantages
 Easy to manipulate, especially in Indonesia
 Difficult to understand for average traders
 Long term investment. Need another tools to
know the entry point

7. Technical Analysis
#7
Advantages
 Relatively easy to learn
 Relatively easy to interpret
 Popular now amongst Indonesian Broker
Company

8. Technical Analysis
#8
Disadvantages
 Difficult to choose the best Technical
Indicator
 Sometimes Signal Contradict Each Other
 Sometimes Signal triggered late after price
already discounted the signal
 Tends to get trapped in forever try to make
the best TA indicator

9. #9
Statistics Fact about TA
Strategy
Number of
Trades
P/L in Pips P/L in %
Max
Drawdown
BuyAndHold 1 -3,416.66 -3.42 25.44
Bollinger
Bands
20 -19,535.97 -19.54 37.99
MACD 110 3,937.67 3.94 27.55
Parabolic SAR 128 -9,746.29 -9.75 21.96
Stochastic 74 -20,716.40 -20.72 30.64
RSI 8 -18,716.69 -18.72 34.57
Ichimoku
Kinko Hyo
53 30,341.22 30.34 19.51
http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-the-most-profitable-
indicator.html#ixzz2X0je55mi
Testing Result on daily EUR/USD with 5 years data

10. #10
Which TA ?

11. #11
Trading By Rumor
 Buy on Rumor, Sell on news
 Rumor can be wrong
 The closer We to the source, the bigger
chance We can get gain from the rumor
(and vice versa)
 Retail traders mostly hear the rumors very
late
 Where are We in the circle of rumor?

12. #12
Trading by Rumor, VIVA Case

13. #13
Trading by Rumor, BBKP Case

14. #14
Astrology
 Difficult to explain by logic
 Superstitious
 Self Fulfilling prophecy?
 Indonesian like to interest about their
zodiac and its affect to their daily life

15. #15
Trading By Big Money Movement
 Price movement is triggered by Supply
and Demand
 More Buyer than Seller -> Price will be increased
 More Seller than Buyer -> Price will be decreased
 Big/Smart Money will have more power to
push price according to their position
 Follow that Big/Smart Money
 Sometimes, Big Money can also make
wrong decision creating losing trade

16. #16
Why Big Money?
1. Size does matters
2. Price Change is triggered by Supply and
Demand
3. Big Money have better link from insider to
receive a rumor before it went to public

17. #17
Why Big Money?
4. They have more accurate access to company
financial data (better Fundamental Analyst and
auditor, better links to cross check Company
financial reports (Insider, Bloomberg
terminal, etc)
5. Most of them afford to hire expert Technical
Analyst to execute their trading plan
6. Can be used as GOOD confirmation for ALL
other methods (FA, TA, Rumor, Astrology, etc)

18. #18
How to Trace Big Money ?
 Technical Analysis Indicators (ADX)
 Using OHLCV as source of their
mathematical calculations
 Tends to be at the same direction with
Price Movements
 Easy to manipulate for short timeframe
 ADX, Volume Accumulation, etc

19. #19
How to Trace Big Money ?
 Trade Transaction Data Analysis
 Based on detail per trading transaction
done for that stocks
 Apply assumption/heuristics to filter
which one is Big Money and which one
is Retail

20. #20
How to Trace Big Money ?
 Foreign Inflow/Outflow
 Suitable for Indonesian Company with
big dependency to foreign
investors/traders to move the market
 Represent also smart money
 Not accurate for low volume Stocks

21. #21
How to Trace Big Money ?
Foreign Inflow/Outflow on IHSG

22. #22
How to Trace Big Money ?
 Broker Transaction Analysis, Tlot vs
Blot, etc
 Represent also smart money
 Can be used for all markets
 Difficult to get and analyze the data
automatically

23. #23
How to Trace Big Money ?
Top 5 Broker Transaction on IHSG

24. #24
Basic Rule
1) Use Line Chart to plot total accumulation and
distribution for each day per stock
2) Smallest timeframe is daily; the bigger the
timeframe, the more valid the data
3) Trade at the same direction with Trend, Even
when trend is applied to accumulation chart

25. #25
Basic Rule
4) Apply Moving Averages to the accumulation
line chart to get the trend
 MA(ACUM, 5) for short term accumulation trend
 MA(ACUM, 20) for medium term accumulation
trend

26. #26
Basic Rule
5) For simplification, We use MA theory to define
uptrend and downtrend
 Uptrend when short MA is above long MA
 Downtrend when short MA is below long MA
6) Minor drop on uptrend accumulation doesn't
means uptrend price will change to
downtrend

27. #27
Basic Rule
7) Minor increase on downtrend accumulation
doesn't means downtrend price will change to
uptrend
8) Uptrend in accumulation will not suddenly
change price trend to uptrend. Sometime price
will stay sideways for a while before start to
increase

28. #28
Basic Rule
9) Downtrend in accumulation will not suddenly
change price trend to downtrend. Sometime
price will still sideways for a while before start to
decrease
10) Can be used as divergence indicator
11) Don't buy on downtrend Accumulation. Don't
Sell on uptrend Accumulation
12) Price Discounts Everything

29. #29
How to Use
Simple Buy Indicator :
Buy when both Close and High is BIGGER than
previous day
Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1);
PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);
Combined with Accumulation :
Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1) and
Acum > MA(Acum, 5) and MA(Acum, 5) > MA(Acum, 20);
PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);

30. #30
Study Case : ACES
DON’T BUY DURING
DISTRIBUTION

31. #31
Study Case : PGAS
DON’T BUY
DURING
DISTRIBUTION

32. #32
Study Case : ADRO

33. #33
Study Case : VIVA
April 2013, Big Rumor that HT or CT bought
VIVA for around Rp.1200 per share, compared
to that time market price (Rp.600 - Rp.650).
Price jump up around 15% at one day on April
12nd. But after that start to run on downtrend.
Latest another rumor, only ANTV finally sold
(also with questionable price). But now, big
money start to accumulate.

34. #34
Study Case : VIVA
Big Money View

35. #35
Study Case : BBKP
Big rumor (or fact?) that BBKP sold for Rp.1050
per shares at early June 2013. at June
11st, price jump to its high 800, only to
decrease after that day and resume it's
downtrend

36. #36
Study Case : BBKP
Big Money View

37. #37
Study Case : CTRS
Big Uptrend with very good accumulation since
2012. First week April 2013, CTRS announced
Private placement caused small correction, only
to resume the uptrend after that

38. #38
Study Case : CTRS
Big Money View

39. #39
Study Case : BUMI
Used to be everybody's favorite. Even
until now sometime still catch trader's
attention by it's CA.

40. #40
Study Case : BUMI
Big Money View

41. #41
Study Case : BJTM
Big price increase for this year dividend
supported by good accumulation by big
money. And then major correction by
profit taking after dividend expired. Now
the price trend is sideways even that
smart money continue their accumulation
after correction done

42. #42
Study Case : BJTM
Big Money View

43. #43
Study Case : BKSL
Classic example how big money accumulate
the stock for around two months during
November and December 2012 before the
price jumped up from 190 to 260 only in 2.5
weeks

44. #44
Study Case : BKSL
Big Money View

45. #45
Study Case : Ciputra Group
Time by time analysis how the stocks
from same owner, same sector can have
different cycle on price movements and
accumulations.

46. #46
Study Case : Ciputra Group
Big Money View

47. #47
Study Case : MPPA
Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation
by Big Money.

48. #48
Study Case : MPPA
Big Money View

49. #49
Study Case : COWL
Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation
by Big Money.

50. #50
Study Case : COWL
Big Money View

51. Thank You