A non-technical presentation about statistics. The goal is to show real examples on misuses, methodology, metrics and communication.

1. STATISTICS
THE GRAMMAR OF DATA SCIENCE
ÍCARO MEDEIROS
Big Data Week
São Paulo - SP, 23/11/2015

2. WHY TO PURSUE SOLID BACKGROUND ON STATISTICS?
https://twitter.com/josh_wills/status/198093512149958656

3. STATISTICS TO HELP NOT GETTING INTO THE DANGER ZONE
http://berkeleysciencereview.com/scientific-collaborations-uc-berkeley-data-driven-cover/

4. INSPIRATIONS FOR THIS KEYNOTE
https://speakerdeck.com/jakevdp/statistics-for-hackers
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics

5. METRICS
MEANING
METHODS
MISUSES-
+
+
+

6. HOW TO LIE: MOVIE REVIEWS
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings
BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE MATH, WE [THINK] IT’S SOMEHOW
OBJECTIVELY TRUE, BUT IT’S ALL BASED ON SUBJECTIVE EXPERIENCE

7. FANDANGO LOVES MOVIES
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings
(AND SELLS MOVIE TICKETS)

8. ATTENTION TO PROVENANCE

9. HOW TO LIE: ROUNDING
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings

10. HOW TO LIE: ROUNDING
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fandango-movies-ratings

11. CORRELATION
IS NOT CAUSATION

12. SHORT BREAKS AT WORK
"CAUSE" CANCER
Example from ‘Naked Statistics'

13. SMOKING
CAUSES CANCER
BREAKS AT WORK
CORRELATED WITH
LEAD TO

14. SPURIOUS CORRELATIONS
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

15. A/B TESTING
https://vwo.com/ab-testing/

16. A/B TESTING CAN BE BAD
https://www.quora.com/When-should-A-B-testing-not-be-trusted-to-make-decisions/answer/Edwin-Chen-1
▸Feedback loops
▸Novelty effect
▸Seasonality
▸Wrong metrics
http://www.evanmiller.org/how-not-to-run-an-ab-test.html

17. CHOOSE THE RIGHT METRICS: CLICKS VS DWELL TIME
http://yahoolabs.tumblr.com/post/99405569711/science-powering-product-and-personalization

18. CHOOSE THE RIGHT METRICS: SHARING IS NOT NECESSARILY CARING
http://time.com/12933/what-you-think-you-know-about-the-web-is-wrong/

19. https://xkcd.com/882 (Significant)
SIGNIFICANCE

22. THE RED CARD PROBLEM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/
http://www.nature.com/news/crowdsourced-research-many-hands-make-tight-work-1.18508

23. 61 RESEARCHERS: SAME PROBLEM, DIFFERENT METHODS
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/

24. THE BACON
CONTROVERSY

25. MORE ABOUT P-VALUES
https://twitter.com/Ted_Underwood/status/658983555008040960

26. IS THIS A GOOD CLASSIFICATION?
http://www.wired.com/2015/10/who-does-bacon-cause-cancer-sort-of-but-not-really/
1
CARCINOGENIC
2A
PROBABLY
2B
POSSIBLY
…

27. EFFECT SIZE: BACON VS CIGARETTES (SAME CATEGORY)
This is bacon
18%
Cigarette

28. WAIT FOR IT…

29. Cigarette
2500%
http://www.wired.com/2015/10/who-does-bacon-cause-cancer-sort-of-but-not-really/

30. http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/26/bacon-ham-sausages-processed-meats-cancer-risk-smoking-says-who
https://catracalivre.com.br/geral/sustentavel/indicacao/muito-alem-do-bacon-agrotoxicos-tambem-podem-causar-cancer/

31. THE SCHRODINGER’S DIET
http://www.vox.com/2015/5/20/8621527/health-tips-reporter

32. ”
http://nerds.airbnb.com/scaling-data-science
DATA SCIENCE IS AN ACT OF
INTERPRETATION OF
CUSTOMER'S VOICE

33. GOOD DATA VISUALIZATION: TIPS FOR SCATTER PLOTS
http://content.visage.co/hs-fs/hub/424038/file-2094950163-pdf/Data_Visualization_101_How_to_Design_Charts_and_Graphs.pdf

34. DAVID MCCANDLESS: INFORMATION IS BEAUTIFUL
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/diversity-in-tech/

35. IT’S EASY TO LIE WITH
STATISTICS, BUT IT’S HARD TO
TELL THE TRUTH WITHOUT THEM
Andrejs Dunkels, as mentioned on "Naked Statistics"
TAKEAWAY MESSAGE

36. WHY PYTHON IS BETTER
FOR DATA SCIENCE
MY NEXT TALK
São Paulo Big Data Meetup
São Paulo - SP, 25/11/2015
VivaReal Portal Imobiliário. Rua Bela Cintra, 539 - Consolação
http://www.meetup.com/pt/Sao-Paulo-Big-Data-Meetup

37. slides
icaromedeiros.com.br
slideshare.net/icaromedeiros
@icaromedeiros