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Imagine the result
Simulation Data Analytics
Traffic Modeling
Shubhendu Mohanty, PE
July 2015
Imagine the result
Methodology
Development
Data Collection
Data AnalysisDocumentation
Traffic Modeling Overview
What can still go WRONG?
Imagine the result
1. Data Validity Traffic
Counts
3. Problem
Type ? ?Right Focus
2. Problem
Size
Temporal
Boundary
Agenda
4. Documentation
Presetting
the Solution
Discuss:
Imagine the result
Traffic Volumes
Output
Simulation Model
1. Data Validity
Imagine the result
 Peak Hour
Volumes
 Daily Volumes
 No non-recurring
congestion
 No weather delays
 No equipment
malfunctioning
 Right corridor and hours
are captured
We Ensure Quality By:
1. Data
Validity
When we collect THROUGHPUT instead of the DEMAND!
Imagine the result
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
4:00
4:30
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
20:30
21:00
21:30
22:00
FlowRate(Veh/Hr)
Time of the Day
Measured Flow
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
4:00
4:30
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
20:30
21:00
21:30
22:00
FlowRate(Veh/Hr)
Time of the Day
Measured Flow
Anticipated DemandCalculated Demand
Typical Peak
7:00 to 9:00 AM
Typical Peak
4:00 to 6:00 PM
Traffic Count Along I-285 EB
Demand Rate
=10500/HrThroughput
=8500/Hr
Demand
=8500/Hr
Throughput
=7500/Hr
Throughput Vs Demand
1. Data
Validity
2000 Veh/Hr
1000 Veh/Hr
Unusual Dip in the
Flow Rate
Early Peaking
Imagine the result
I-285 @ SR 400
Int. Project Area
I-285 and SR 400 Interchange
Demand
Estimating
Demand
1000 Veh/hr
(0 Veh/Hr)
2000 Veh/hr
400 Veh/Hr
1500 Veh/hr
(175 Veh/Hr)
Backed up Demand
AM (PM)
4.0 Miles
(1.0 Mile)
2.0 Miles
(No Queues)
3.0 Miles
(0.5 Miles)
No Queues
Queues
AM (PM)
1. Data
Validity
Back of the Queue
SR 400 SB , 7:00 AM
Imagine the result
2. Problem Size
 Temporal boundary limit is the length of traffic ANALYSIS
PERIOD.
 Necessary to capture the VARIABILITY of demand and
congestion.
Temporal Boundary Limits
Imagine the result
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
4:30
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
Traffic Count @ SR 400 SB,
Georgia
2. Problem
Size
Flow(Veh/Hr.)
Time
Temporal Boundary Limits
Measured Flow
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
4:30
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
10:30
11:00
Speed(mph)
Speed(mph)
Peak
Hour
Peak
Period
Imagine the result
AM Peak PM Peak
Shoulder Hr 1 83.50% 91.78%
Peak Hour
100%
(7:30 - 8:30)
100%
(3:15 - 4:15)
Shoulder Hr 2 90.50% 90.36%
Shoulder Hr 3 85.22% 82.76%
Shoulder Hr 4 74.23% 69.13%
Analysis Hours
Analysis Periods
2. Problem Size
Shoulder Hour Volumes
10 Hours of
data and
analysis
I-285 @ SR 400 Interchange Analysis, GDOT
Imagine the result
? ?
3. Problem Type
Data Validity
10 Hours of
Analysis
Output
What to focus on?
Imagine the result
? ?
3. Problem Type
Direction of Travel
No-Build
Bottleneck
Higher Density
LOS F
Low Density
LOS A-D
Denied Demand
Denied Demand
New
Bottleneck
BuildHigher Density
LOS F
?
Imagine the result
4. Documentation
Our WORK is only as good
as the STORY we Tell!
What can go wrong
with it?
1. Incomplete
2. Targeted to the
wrong audience
3. Too much text
4. Non transparent
Imagine the result
4. Documentation
i. Lane Based
Schematic Diagrams
ii. Congestion Heat
Map
iii. System Efficiency
Graph
iv. Queue Progression
Graph
Techniques to
convey
the right solution
Imagine the result
4. Documentation
Input
Volumes
(vph)1
Density
(vphpl)2
Travel
Time (sec)
Avg.
Speed
(mph)
Segment
Length
(ft.)
North Boundary to I-295 off ramp 6,550 19 64 65 6057
between I-295 ramps 3,670 13 70 68 6983
I-295 onramp to OSA off ramp 6,160 20 73 62 6663
between OSA ramps 5,210 18 22 67 2128
OSA on ramp to SR 9B off ramp 6,270 21 75 67 7377
SR9B off ramp to SR9B WB on
ramp4
4,070 13 49 63 4485
SR9B WB on ramp to SR9B EB
on ramp4
6,490 15 19 68 1917
SR 9B to rest stop 6,610 19 46 64 4328
between rest stop ramps 6,410 21 36 65 3395
rest stop to CR 210 off ramp 6,610 16 74 66 7191
between CR 210 ramps 5,040 16 33 67 3255
CR 210 on ramp to South boundary 6,220 20 63 67 6189
MOEs for year 2035 AM Peak Hour along Interstate 95
Southbound
Location
Build Original-Concept Alternative
Tabulation of Data
(Peak Hour Performance)
Rest Area
EntranceCR 201, Entrance CR 201 Exit Rest Area Exit
SB
Stick Diagrams (Peak Hour LOS)
LOS A to C LOS D LOS E LOS F
LEGEND
Conventional Methods
Covers Only: What and Where
Missing Info: Why, How and
When
Imagine the result
Link#
Density
Speed
Distance
LOS A to C LOS D LOS E LOS F
LEGEND : LOS Based on Freeway Density Veh/mi/ln
 Unhide information
 Geometry is self explanatory
 Easy to understand the issues
4. Documentation
i. Lane Based Schematic Diagrams
Volume
 Requires fewer texts to explain
concepts
 Customizable
Merits
Rest Area
EntranceCR 201, Entrance CR 201 Exit Rest Area Exit
Imagine the result
4. Documentation
Location (Highway Corridor)
Time(PeakPeriod)
Representation of congestion
across spatial & temporal
boundaries
ii. Congestion Heat Maps
Imagine the result
9:45 - 10:00 20 15 14 13 15 17 18 16 17
9:30 - 9:45 19 13 12 15 14 17 16 18 20
9:15 - 9:30 14 16 19 18 21 20 25 24 19
9:00 - 9:15 20 22 24 23 28 27 29 30 26
8:45 - 9:00 22 26 26 26 32 35 30 32 27
8:30 - 8:45 26 25 27 30 41 40 39 31 24
8:15 - 8:30 27 27 32 39 54 55 45 34 24
8:00 - 8:15 27 30 35 47 53 60 51 37 25
7:45 - 8:00 25 34 38 48 59 57 46 34 27
7:30 - 7:45 24 23 24 41 49 47 40 33 23
7:15 - 7:30 22 25 27 34 40 45 37 30 26
7:00 - 7:15 18 22 25 27 26 34 36 29 21
Space (Highway Corridor)
6:00 - 6:15 9 11 10 14 16 18 19 21 20
Freeway Density ( veh/mi/ln)
6:45 - 7:00 14 20 24 26 25 28 32 31 24
6:30 - 6:45 10 16 18 23 26 25 28 27 23
6:15 - 6:30 8 12 14 12 17 18 21 22 24
4
Time(AMPeakPeriod)
1
2
3
Congestion build-Up
and dissipation
Duration of congestion
=1.75 Hrs.
Origin of congestion
4. Documentation
ii. Congestion Heat Maps
a b c d e f
100% Congestion
Captured
Imagine the result
No-Build P.M. Peak
LOS based on freeway
density
Duration of peak more than
5.0 hours
Duration of peak
2.00 hours
50 % less
congestion under
build condition
I-285 @ SR 400 Interchange Analysis
Application of Congestion Heat Maps
Imagine the result
4. Documentation
iii. System Efficiency Graph
Peak Period (Time)
CumulativeVehiclesDenied
Entry
Imagine the result
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0 1 2 3 4 5
DENIEDVOLUME
PEAK PERIOD (HOURS)
DENIED ENTRY- 2019 PM PEAK PERIOD
No-Build Build
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0 1 2 3 4 5
DENIEDVOLUME
PEAK PERIOD (HOURS)
DENIED ENTRY- 2039 PM PEAK PERIOD
No-Build Build
6 7 85.5 7.0
Application of System Efficiency Graph
I-285 @ SR 400 Interchange Analysis
1.5 Hours of potential
reduction in congested
peak period
Reduction in delay under
build scenario
Point of queue dissipation
Point of queue dissipationPoint of queue dissipation
Imagine the result
4. Documentation
Queue Progression Graph
AM Peak Hour (By City of Sandy Springs)
Legend
2016 No-Build
2016 Build
Delayed
Vehicles
Imagine the result
How to Arrive at the Right
Solution?
1. Lane Based Schematic Diagram
Ditch the text, VISUALIZE data
Be mindful of the
FUNCTIONALITY
Take an OVERVIEW
approach
Be brief, but TRANSPARENT
Know your AUDIENCE
2. Congestion Heat Map
3. System Efficiency Graph
4. Queue Progression Graphs
Keys to Effective Documentation
Imagine the result
How to Arrive at the Right
Solution?
Validate the data
Be mindful of the temporal limits
Focus on the right analysis
Present a story, not just a report
Keys to a
Successful
Analysis
Imagine the result
Questions?
Shubhendu Mohanty, PE
Traffic Engineering Group Lead
Ph:770.384.6614
Shubhendu.Mohanty@arcadis-us.com

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SSLinked in

  • 1. Imagine the result Simulation Data Analytics Traffic Modeling Shubhendu Mohanty, PE July 2015
  • 2. Imagine the result Methodology Development Data Collection Data AnalysisDocumentation Traffic Modeling Overview What can still go WRONG?
  • 3. Imagine the result 1. Data Validity Traffic Counts 3. Problem Type ? ?Right Focus 2. Problem Size Temporal Boundary Agenda 4. Documentation Presetting the Solution Discuss:
  • 4. Imagine the result Traffic Volumes Output Simulation Model 1. Data Validity
  • 5. Imagine the result  Peak Hour Volumes  Daily Volumes  No non-recurring congestion  No weather delays  No equipment malfunctioning  Right corridor and hours are captured We Ensure Quality By: 1. Data Validity When we collect THROUGHPUT instead of the DEMAND!
  • 6. Imagine the result 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 FlowRate(Veh/Hr) Time of the Day Measured Flow 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 FlowRate(Veh/Hr) Time of the Day Measured Flow Anticipated DemandCalculated Demand Typical Peak 7:00 to 9:00 AM Typical Peak 4:00 to 6:00 PM Traffic Count Along I-285 EB Demand Rate =10500/HrThroughput =8500/Hr Demand =8500/Hr Throughput =7500/Hr Throughput Vs Demand 1. Data Validity 2000 Veh/Hr 1000 Veh/Hr Unusual Dip in the Flow Rate Early Peaking
  • 7. Imagine the result I-285 @ SR 400 Int. Project Area I-285 and SR 400 Interchange Demand Estimating Demand 1000 Veh/hr (0 Veh/Hr) 2000 Veh/hr 400 Veh/Hr 1500 Veh/hr (175 Veh/Hr) Backed up Demand AM (PM) 4.0 Miles (1.0 Mile) 2.0 Miles (No Queues) 3.0 Miles (0.5 Miles) No Queues Queues AM (PM) 1. Data Validity Back of the Queue SR 400 SB , 7:00 AM
  • 8. Imagine the result 2. Problem Size  Temporal boundary limit is the length of traffic ANALYSIS PERIOD.  Necessary to capture the VARIABILITY of demand and congestion. Temporal Boundary Limits
  • 9. Imagine the result 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 Traffic Count @ SR 400 SB, Georgia 2. Problem Size Flow(Veh/Hr.) Time Temporal Boundary Limits Measured Flow 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 Speed(mph) Speed(mph) Peak Hour Peak Period
  • 10. Imagine the result AM Peak PM Peak Shoulder Hr 1 83.50% 91.78% Peak Hour 100% (7:30 - 8:30) 100% (3:15 - 4:15) Shoulder Hr 2 90.50% 90.36% Shoulder Hr 3 85.22% 82.76% Shoulder Hr 4 74.23% 69.13% Analysis Hours Analysis Periods 2. Problem Size Shoulder Hour Volumes 10 Hours of data and analysis I-285 @ SR 400 Interchange Analysis, GDOT
  • 11. Imagine the result ? ? 3. Problem Type Data Validity 10 Hours of Analysis Output What to focus on?
  • 12. Imagine the result ? ? 3. Problem Type Direction of Travel No-Build Bottleneck Higher Density LOS F Low Density LOS A-D Denied Demand Denied Demand New Bottleneck BuildHigher Density LOS F ?
  • 13. Imagine the result 4. Documentation Our WORK is only as good as the STORY we Tell! What can go wrong with it? 1. Incomplete 2. Targeted to the wrong audience 3. Too much text 4. Non transparent
  • 14. Imagine the result 4. Documentation i. Lane Based Schematic Diagrams ii. Congestion Heat Map iii. System Efficiency Graph iv. Queue Progression Graph Techniques to convey the right solution
  • 15. Imagine the result 4. Documentation Input Volumes (vph)1 Density (vphpl)2 Travel Time (sec) Avg. Speed (mph) Segment Length (ft.) North Boundary to I-295 off ramp 6,550 19 64 65 6057 between I-295 ramps 3,670 13 70 68 6983 I-295 onramp to OSA off ramp 6,160 20 73 62 6663 between OSA ramps 5,210 18 22 67 2128 OSA on ramp to SR 9B off ramp 6,270 21 75 67 7377 SR9B off ramp to SR9B WB on ramp4 4,070 13 49 63 4485 SR9B WB on ramp to SR9B EB on ramp4 6,490 15 19 68 1917 SR 9B to rest stop 6,610 19 46 64 4328 between rest stop ramps 6,410 21 36 65 3395 rest stop to CR 210 off ramp 6,610 16 74 66 7191 between CR 210 ramps 5,040 16 33 67 3255 CR 210 on ramp to South boundary 6,220 20 63 67 6189 MOEs for year 2035 AM Peak Hour along Interstate 95 Southbound Location Build Original-Concept Alternative Tabulation of Data (Peak Hour Performance) Rest Area EntranceCR 201, Entrance CR 201 Exit Rest Area Exit SB Stick Diagrams (Peak Hour LOS) LOS A to C LOS D LOS E LOS F LEGEND Conventional Methods Covers Only: What and Where Missing Info: Why, How and When
  • 16. Imagine the result Link# Density Speed Distance LOS A to C LOS D LOS E LOS F LEGEND : LOS Based on Freeway Density Veh/mi/ln  Unhide information  Geometry is self explanatory  Easy to understand the issues 4. Documentation i. Lane Based Schematic Diagrams Volume  Requires fewer texts to explain concepts  Customizable Merits Rest Area EntranceCR 201, Entrance CR 201 Exit Rest Area Exit
  • 17. Imagine the result 4. Documentation Location (Highway Corridor) Time(PeakPeriod) Representation of congestion across spatial & temporal boundaries ii. Congestion Heat Maps
  • 18. Imagine the result 9:45 - 10:00 20 15 14 13 15 17 18 16 17 9:30 - 9:45 19 13 12 15 14 17 16 18 20 9:15 - 9:30 14 16 19 18 21 20 25 24 19 9:00 - 9:15 20 22 24 23 28 27 29 30 26 8:45 - 9:00 22 26 26 26 32 35 30 32 27 8:30 - 8:45 26 25 27 30 41 40 39 31 24 8:15 - 8:30 27 27 32 39 54 55 45 34 24 8:00 - 8:15 27 30 35 47 53 60 51 37 25 7:45 - 8:00 25 34 38 48 59 57 46 34 27 7:30 - 7:45 24 23 24 41 49 47 40 33 23 7:15 - 7:30 22 25 27 34 40 45 37 30 26 7:00 - 7:15 18 22 25 27 26 34 36 29 21 Space (Highway Corridor) 6:00 - 6:15 9 11 10 14 16 18 19 21 20 Freeway Density ( veh/mi/ln) 6:45 - 7:00 14 20 24 26 25 28 32 31 24 6:30 - 6:45 10 16 18 23 26 25 28 27 23 6:15 - 6:30 8 12 14 12 17 18 21 22 24 4 Time(AMPeakPeriod) 1 2 3 Congestion build-Up and dissipation Duration of congestion =1.75 Hrs. Origin of congestion 4. Documentation ii. Congestion Heat Maps a b c d e f 100% Congestion Captured
  • 19. Imagine the result No-Build P.M. Peak LOS based on freeway density Duration of peak more than 5.0 hours Duration of peak 2.00 hours 50 % less congestion under build condition I-285 @ SR 400 Interchange Analysis Application of Congestion Heat Maps
  • 20. Imagine the result 4. Documentation iii. System Efficiency Graph Peak Period (Time) CumulativeVehiclesDenied Entry
  • 21. Imagine the result 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 0 1 2 3 4 5 DENIEDVOLUME PEAK PERIOD (HOURS) DENIED ENTRY- 2019 PM PEAK PERIOD No-Build Build 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 0 1 2 3 4 5 DENIEDVOLUME PEAK PERIOD (HOURS) DENIED ENTRY- 2039 PM PEAK PERIOD No-Build Build 6 7 85.5 7.0 Application of System Efficiency Graph I-285 @ SR 400 Interchange Analysis 1.5 Hours of potential reduction in congested peak period Reduction in delay under build scenario Point of queue dissipation Point of queue dissipationPoint of queue dissipation
  • 22. Imagine the result 4. Documentation Queue Progression Graph AM Peak Hour (By City of Sandy Springs) Legend 2016 No-Build 2016 Build Delayed Vehicles
  • 23. Imagine the result How to Arrive at the Right Solution? 1. Lane Based Schematic Diagram Ditch the text, VISUALIZE data Be mindful of the FUNCTIONALITY Take an OVERVIEW approach Be brief, but TRANSPARENT Know your AUDIENCE 2. Congestion Heat Map 3. System Efficiency Graph 4. Queue Progression Graphs Keys to Effective Documentation
  • 24. Imagine the result How to Arrive at the Right Solution? Validate the data Be mindful of the temporal limits Focus on the right analysis Present a story, not just a report Keys to a Successful Analysis
  • 25. Imagine the result Questions? Shubhendu Mohanty, PE Traffic Engineering Group Lead Ph:770.384.6614 Shubhendu.Mohanty@arcadis-us.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Fix animation
  2. How Can you Determine Demand.
  3. Add legend
  4. Fix Order
  5. Analysis Constrained within the temporal boundary
  6. Change in congestion by location Reduction in Peak Period Overall Corridor Congestion Reduction in extent Location based peak period. Help identify Modeling error Improvement are having a positive effect of negative. Delay distribution