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連邦準備制度と金融危機
第二回 第二次世界大戦後の連邦準備
第二次大戦の終結と連邦準備の獲得①
• 戦時中
借入れにより資金を調達していた
→アメリカの国家債務は大きく膨れ上がった。
★連邦準備は財務省に協力して資金調達を安
くできるように金利を低く設定し、金利を管理
する能力を使った。(当時の役割)
第二次大戦の終結と連邦準備の獲得②
• 戦後
連邦準備は金利を低い設定のままにしておく
ように圧力がかけられた。
だが、経済を加熱させるリスクやインフレー
ションを上昇させるリスクがある。
→連邦準備は経済の安定を達成するために必要
に応じて、独立して利子率を決めれるようになっ
た
風に向かって立つ政策
• 経済が急速に拡大している時
→連邦準備は引締めを行う
• 経済が急速にゆっくりと成長している時
→連邦準備は金利の引き下げを行う
これらのことをしながらインフレーションと成長を安
定的に保つように努めた。
しかし、問題が発生した。
風に向かって立つ政策②
• 1960年からインフ率は上昇していった。
• ヴェトナム戦争時の65年から
上昇は勢いを増した。
• 70年代の終わりには、物価の
インフレーション率はほぼ13%に達した。
↓
金融政策は70年代に問題を生じさせてしまう
ほどなぜそんなにも緩和的であったのだろうか
風に向かって立つ政策③
• 技術的な問題
失業率は3%から4%といった低水準に維持
するというのが一般的であった。
→インフレーションを少し高めに設定する(50
年代、60年代初期の繁栄の時期にアプロー
チを始めた)
インフレ期待の定着
• 原油と食糧価格について
石油輸出国機構はカルテルを締結し原油の
輸出を禁止した。
• 賃金・物価のコントロール
企業が製品の価格の引き上げを禁止した
強力な引締め政策
• 金利を非常に急激に引き上げた
→1980年に12-13%あったインフレ率が1983
年には約3%へと大幅に減少した
↓
金利を急激に引き上げる
失業率の上昇
グレート・モデレーション
• これは超安定期のことを指す
• 教科書のグラフを用いて説明します
借り手側の問題
• グレート・モデーションにより経済だけでなく金
融システムも同様に安定的になった。
→金融安定化政策が軽視されるようになった
金融危機(バブル崩壊)の序章へ
・住宅バブル
↪住宅価格の大幅な上昇
↪新規住宅ローンの貸出基準の劣化
住宅バブルと貸し手側の問題
• このような状況なのに、ローンを貸し出した貸し
手に問題がある
• あまりにも多くのレバレッシを使った(民間部門)
→グレート・モデレーション
→金融契約や金融取引が複雑になった。
→資金調達サイド
• 公的部門の問題
→金融規制の体制
特に連邦準備の問題
・銀行及び銀行持株会社に対する監視
・消費者保護
・規定体制が定められている方法
住宅バブルと貸し手側の問題
連邦準備の金融政策は住宅バブル
の原因になっているのか
• 2001年に経済は非常に弱くなり、雇用増加も
ゆっくりとしたものになった。
↓
• インフレーションは非常に低くなった時に連邦
準備の金利を切り下げた
⇊
金利を引き下げたから、住宅バブルになったの
ではないのか
• 金融政策がもたらした低金利の目的は住宅
需要を増加させ、より経済を強化することで
あった。
• 連邦準備ないで行った研究は、金融政策は
住宅価格の急騰にその上昇に主要な役割を
はたしていなかったと発表された。
連邦準備の金融政策は住宅バブル
の原因になっているのか
危機の経済的影響(2008,2009年)
• 金融ストレス指数
金融市場で金融ストレスが急騰した
• S&P500株価指数
下落した(2001年の時よりも大きなものになっ
た)
• 一戸建て住宅着工件数
不況前に減少している
• 失業率
増加している

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連邦準備制度と金融危機