Spatial model of deforestation for Northeast Bolivia

Workshop "Methods for biomass estimation and forest-cover mapping in the Tropics". Kigali, Rwanda. June 20, 2011.

Methods for Biomass Estimation
and Forest-Cover Mapping in the Tropics
Rwanda. June 20-25, 2011

SPATIAL MODEL OF
DEFORESTATION FOR
NORTHEAST BOLIVIA

Eric Armijo

WHY SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION?

• Better understanding of past land use
change processes

• Predictive power (future scenarios):
spatial patterns

• Support decision-making for natural
resource managers

• REDD mechanism: baseline definition
(additionality)

MODELING ENVIRONMENT

Dinamica EGO
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil

http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/

• Multiple land cover/use transitions at the same time
• Subregion support
• Many transition matrices (annual deforestation rates)
• Dynamic variables
• Highly customizable (w/ spatial patterns)
• Robust with large datasets
• Freeware, available on the web
• Tutorial & technical support available (forum)

Indigenous REDD Program
in the Bolivian Amazon

Size: ~ 3.8 Million Ha.

160,000 inhabitants
4 indigenous territories

Forest cover (2008):
~2.7 Million Ha. (71,9 %)

Deforestation: 9,800 Ha/yr

MAIN DRIVERS AND AGENTS OF DEFORESTATION

Slash-and-burn

Cattle ranching (pastures) Small-scale agriculture
~ 20 - 50 Ha. ~ 1 - 5 Ha.

Road
improvement

REGIONALIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA

4

1 1 Riberalta - Guayaramerín
2 Riberalta - Rurrenabaque
3 El Choro - Cobija
3 2 4 Rural (outside main road)
4

4

SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION

Amount of
forest
conversion

Lambin & Geist, 2006

DEFORESTATION RATE
250,000

200,000 Deforestation
(Area in Ha.)
150,000

100,000

50,000

0
1991
0 2 4 6 8 10
2001 12 14
2005 16 18
2008

Area (Ha.)
antes 1991 1991-2001 2001-2005 2005-2008
Study area 83,486 45,390 46,185 29,005 204,066

Average annual
deforestation rate
(Ha/year) 4,539 11,546 9,668

DEFORESTATION RATE (Transition Matrix)

0.13 %

1.54 %
The transition matrix
is calculated for each
0.62 %
subregion based on
0.13 % observed (past)
0.10 %
deforestation

0.13 %

DEFORESTATION RATE
1991-2005

SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION

Location of
forest
conversion

Lambin & Geist, 2006

PREDICTORS (VARIABLES) DEFINITION

Distance to deforested areas Distance to main roads

“Deforestation risk”

Deforestation predictors
(variables)

Spatial transition probability

Land use
Map of
1991
changes
& 2005

SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION

Simulation

Lambin & Geist, 2006

GENERATING SPATIAL PATTERNS

Deforestation patch formation

Expander = 20% Expander = 40% Expander = 60% Expander = 80%

MODEL VALIDATION
55%

50%

45%

40%

35%
Model fitness

Similarirty
30%

25%
Spatial resolution (m)
20%
0 200 400 600 800 1000

Is the model capturing
adequately the past
dynamics ?
Simulated deforestation: 2005-2008

PROJECTING FUTURE DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS

2008 2020

forest
deforestation Dinamica
EGO

Thanks you !
Questions

Eric Armijo
earmijo@fan-bo.org
http://www.fan-bo.org/
http://www.reddamazonia.org/

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