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BRIEFING NOTE
SOME EVOLVING TRENDS AT THE WORLD BANK:
LENDING, FUNDING, STAFFING
Kevin Currey
Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
The Ford Foundation
May 2014
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This briefing note explores ongoing macro-level changes at the World Bank. It focuses on four
major trends: (1) changes in lending, including amount of lending, type of lending, and
recipient countries; (2) changes in income sources; (3) the growth of trust funds; and (4) trends
in staffing. The findings presented here are intended to help shape future engagements with
the Bank by placing its operations in a broader context.
Major findings:
(1) Total World Bank lending has declined in real terms in recent years, driven by a significant
decline in International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) lending. IBRD
commitments averaged more than $25 billion per year during the 1980s and 1990s, but
commitments have since declined and are expected to average around $15 billion per year in
the near term. This decline is the result of a number of factors, including insufficiently large
capital infusions and reduced borrower demand stemming from low global interest rates
and the growing availability of alternative funding sources. Declining Bank lending
coincides with declining profitability. President Kim has recently announced plans to
nearly double IBRD lending over the next several years, but it is not clear how this will be
achieved.
(2) International Development Association (IDA) lending has continued to increase in real
terms, but IDA funding is increasingly dependent on donor contributions. Declining IBRD
income limits the size of the subsidy IBRD can provide to IDA and increases the importance
of individual IDA donors.
(3) World Bank Group funding to support the private sector has increased dramatically, both in
absolute terms and relative to overall spending. In 2013, the International Finance
Corporation (IFC) accounted for 35% of World Bank Group commitments, compared with
18% in 2009 and only 13% in 2000. IFC support for financial intermediaries has also
increased rapidly over the last several years. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
(MIGA) commitments have doubled in the past five years, albeit from a low base.
(4) The Bank has always faced a pressure to lend, stemming from structural factors
(administrative costs are covered by profits from loans), institutional factors (the real or
perceived importance of ‘moving money’ for staff promotions), and external factors
(demands from donors and shareholders). But while lending has declined, the pressure to
expedite disbursements remains stronger than ever. This is because of the increasing
pressure from both clients and donors to be more efficient and because of the increasing
availability of alternative funding sources for national governments. While these changes
have the potential to make the Bank more responsive and effective, they also pose a
potential risk to policies, like the suite of safeguards, which could be perceived as
impediments to speedy disbursement.
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(5) IBRD lending is shifting from investment lending toward development policy lending and
the newly established Program-for Results (P4R). An evolving development context and
changes in client demand are contributing to this shift. Efforts like P4R that seek to reorient
the Bank from a ‘compliance focus’ to a ‘results focus’ offer both opportunities and risks.
(6) The influence of individual donors has increased through the rapid rise of trust funds.
Trust funds have become increasingly central to the Bank’s efforts to address global public
goods problems, but they also present complex management challenges and threaten to
reduce the overall coordination of Bank activities.
(7) Declining income at the Bank has triggered reductions in staff costs. This has been
accomplished in a variety of ways, including an increased reliance on trust funds to cover
some of these costs.
(8) In sum, declining profitability at IBRD places pressure on the Bank to be more competitive
with other lenders. This could have the positive effect of helping the Bank strengthen key
areas of differentiation, but it could also lead to reduced attention to safeguards and other
perceived impediments to efficient lending.
Notes:
Unless otherwise stated, years listed in this report refer to the World Bank Group fiscal year.
The World Bank refers to IBRD and IDA; World Bank Group refers to all five institutions.
This paper represents the views of the author only and does not necessarily represent the views of the Ford
Foundation.
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5
Five institutions make up the World Bank Group: the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International
Finance Corporation (IFC), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the
International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The first two institutions,
IBRD and IDA, are collectively referred to as the World Bank. Table 1 provides an overview of
these institutions and their roles.
Table 1: The World Bank Group At-A-Glance
Institution Est. Members
Cumulative
Commitments
(billion USD)
FY2013
Commitments
(billion USD)
Purpose
International Bank for
Reconstruction and
Development
(IBRD)
1944 188 586.2 15.2 Lends to creditworthy
middle- and low-income
countries; provides
advisory and analytical
services
International
Development
Association
(IDA)
1960 173 268.5 16.3 Offers highly
concessional loans (called
credits) and grants for the
poorest countries
International Finance
Corporation
(IFC)
1956 184 183.4 18.3 Stimulates private-sector
investment in emerging
markets through loans,
risk-management
products, equity finance,
and advisory services
Multilateral Investment
Guarantee Agency
(MIGA)
1988 180 30.0 2.8 Promotes investment in
emerging economies by
offering guarantees to
protect investors and
lenders against losses
from noncommercial risk
International Centre for
Settlement of
Investment Disputes
(ICSID)
1966 150 [282 concluded
cases]
[1 concluded
case]
Promotes investment by
providing facilities to
help countries arbitrate
investment disputes
Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013); IFC (2013); MIGA (2013); ICSID (2013).
6
WORLD BANK LENDING
Both the World Bank’s mission and its approach to executing it have evolved considerably over
time. Created in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944, IBRD‘s initial tasks were to address
capital deficiency and stabilize a global economy ravaged by World War II (Phillips 2009). The
Bank issued its first loan in 1947, committing $250 million to the French government to support
reconstruction. But not long afterward, it turned its focus away from Europe and began to
address global poverty.
Since then, the history of the Bank has closely tracked broader trends in international
development approaches (trends the Bank itself helped shape). In the 1950s and 1960s,
investments in industry and infrastructure dominated the Bank’s portfolio, although later in the
period the Bank began investing in capacity and institution building as well. In the 1970s,
under the leadership of President Robert McNamera, the Bank veered into more direct
approaches to poverty reduction, pioneering strategies like ‘basic human needs’ and ‘integrated
rural development.’ During the 1980s, the Bank focused on structural adjustment,
macroeconomic policies, debt, and efforts to increase private capital flows. This culminated in
the emergence of the so-called Washington Consensus, favoring privatization, trade
liberalization, deregulation, fiscal and tax policy reforms, and other hallmarks of neoliberal
economic policy. In the 1990s and 2000s, the Bank focused on sustainable development and
continued to strengthen its brand as a ‘knowledge bank’ offering technical expertise on a range
of development issues. Most recently, the Bank expanded its footprint to address global public
goods problems, like climate change. Today, however, the Bank is at a crossroads, and as the
next section explains, it is not yet clear how the current existential crisis will be resolved.
A. Amount of lending
More than six decades after Bretton Woods, the World Bank’s cumulative lending now stands
in excess of $1 trillion. In 2013, the World Bank Group committed $52.6 billion in total loans,
grants, equity investments and guarantees. The World Bank (IBRD and IDA) committed $31.5
billion in loans, credits, grants, and guarantees. This includes $15.2 billion from IBRD, to
support 92 operations in 35 countries, and $16.3 billion from IDA, to support 184 operations in
59 countries (IBRD 2013; IDA 2013). Table 2 shows nominal commitments for the World Bank
Group institutions over the past five years.
Figure 1 shows real (inflation-adjusted) World Bank lending commitments by year since 1970.
As the graph illustrates, with a few exceptions, IBRD lending has declined in real terms since
the late 1980s and early 1990s. This is more clearly demonstrated in table 3. Real IBRD lending
commitments averaged around $26 billion per year between 1980 and 1999, but dropped to
$16.6 billion per year during the next decade. Growth in IDA lending, on the other hand, has
outpaced inflation, but the real rate of growth was higher in the 1970s and 1980s than today.
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Table 2: Nominal World Bank Group commitments (billion USD), 2009-2013
Institution 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
World Bank 46.9 58.8 43.0 35.4 31.5
IBRD 32.9 44.2 26.7 20.6 15.2
IDA 14.0 14.6 16.3 14.8 16.3
IFC 10.5 12.7 12.2 15.5 18.3
MIGA 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.8
WBG Total 58.8 73.0 57.3 53.6 52.6
Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013); MIGA (2013); IFC (2013)
Figure 1: Real IBRD, IDA, and total World Bank commitments by year (billion 2013 USD)
Note: Amounts adjusted to 2013 USD using the US CPI-All Urban Consumers index (base 1982-1984)
Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013)
Table 3: Nominal/ real average yearly lending commitments by decade (billion 2012 USD)
1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09
Nominal
IBRD 3.9 12.0 16.7 14.2
IDA 1.4 3.6 6.5 9.1
Real
IBRD 16.1 26.2 25.6 16.6
IDA 6.1 8.0 9.9 10.6
Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
Billionsof2013USD
IBRD commitments IDA commitments
Total World Bank commitments
8
The exceptions to this trend are two spikes in lending, in response to the 1997 Asian financial
crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. For example, in the four years leading up to the global
financial crisis, IBRD commitments averaged about $13.5 billion per year. IBRD dramatically
ramped up lending in response to the crisis, making loan commitments of $32.9 billion in 2009
and $44.2 billion in 2010. But as the most immediate threats to global economic stability
subside, IBRD lending has steadily declined to pre-crisis levels; after reaching a record high in
2010, IBRD lending commitments stood at $26.7 billion in 2011 and $20.6 billion last year. It
declined $5.3 billion in 2013, to $15.2 billion.
Capital adequacy tests and prudent risk management practices place upper limits on IBRD’s
lending, but those limits are far from being exceeded (Moody’s 2012). IBRD’s Articles of
Agreement set a statutory lending limit of a 1:1 gearing ratio, meaning that outstanding loans
may not exceed the sum of subscribed capital, reserves, and surplus (World Bank 2012a).
Outstanding loans and guarantees of $141 billion are currently 57% of the $250 billion lending
limit. IBRD currently targets an equity-to-loan ratio of between 23% and 27%. This ratio has
decreased since 2010, due to an increase in lending and decrease in useable equity, but it
remains at the upper end of the target risk coverage range, at 26.8% (IBRD 2012). The
Executive Directors also set Single Borrower Limits that restrict how much individual countries
may borrow. In FY2013, this limit was set at $17.5 billion for India and $16.5 for other countries,
and this will remain unchanged for FY2014 (IBRD 2013; Moody’s 2012).
There are many interlinked reasons why IBRD lending is declining, including the failure to
secure additional capital increases. But a significant factor may be reduced demand for IBRD
loans stemming increased competition from other funding sources and low global interest rates.
The Bank’s lending has never accounted for more than 5% of total international financial flows
(Phillips 2009), but as these flows have rapidly increased, the Bank’s lending had failed to keep
pace. Table 4 shows lending commitments from regional development banks as well as the
China Development Bank and BNDES, the Brazilian Development Bank. (Capital flows from
ODA, remittances, and FDI are included for reference). Lending from the four regional
development banks has been increasing significantly, especially in the aftermath of the financial
crisis.
At the same time, middle income countries are increasingly financing their own development.
Disbursements at BNDES have grown six-fold since 2000, and net profit has increased more
than tenfold. Its lending in 2012 was almost four times more than IBRD lending. The China
Development Bank had about $886 billion in loans outstanding in 2011, compared to only $136
billion in outstanding IBRD loans in FY2012. To put this number further in perspective,
China has only $13 billion in loans outstanding from IBRD and has received cumulative loans of
only slightly more than $50 billion from the World Bank.
Moreover, China is now a major donor for other developing countries. China does not publish
data on its overseas loans, but during the financial crisis, Chinese lending surpassed World
Bank lending: the China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank committed
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more than $110 billion to developing countries from 2008 to 2010, while IBRD and IFC together
committed only $100 billion (Dyer et al. 2011).
Finally, private capital flows are becoming increasingly important for development. Remittance
flows to developing countries in 2012 were 13 times higher than World Bank lending and three
times higher than total ODA; FDI inflows to developing countries were 22 times higher than
World Bank lending and almost four times higher than total ODA. These forms of private
capital are not perfect substitutes for Bank lending, of course, but they do represent an
increased form of at least indirect competition.
Table 4: Loan commitments by development banks
Development Bank
Commitment
(billion USD) Year
World Bank Group 52.6 2013
World Bank (IBRD+IDA) 31.6 2013
IBRD 15.3 2013
IDA 16.3 2013
China Development Bank 163+ 2011
BNDES 79.7 2012
Asian Development Bank (ADB) 10.2 2013
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) 12.3 2012
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 10.7 2012
African Development Bank (AfDB) 8.5 2011
FDI inflows to developing countries 684 2012
Remittances to developing countries 406 2012
DAC ODA 134.8 2013
Source: IBRD (2012); EBRD (2012), ADB (2012); AfDB (2013); IDB (2011); World Bank (2012d); UNCTAD
(2012); OECD (2013)
All of these changes have pushed governments, both borrowers and other shareholders, to
pressure the Bank to remove perceived impediments to faster disbursements. And the Bank
needs to better ‘compete’ with other international financial institutions for other reasons as well,
including the fact that its operating budget is derived from the margin it receives on its lending.
The implications of reduced lending, discussed later in this brief, include a reduced subsidy
from IBRD to IDA, a push for results-based lending, and pressure to focus on fewer, larger
projects with better economies of scale.
Lending, of course, it not the only measure of the Bank’s influence. The Bank also continues to
plays a key role as a development policy expert, and other international financial institutions
often benchmark their policies and practices against the Bank’s. But declining lending volumes
may jeopardize this form of influence as well. As Phillips (2009:11) argues, “the “split between
money and knowledge is in fact quite complex, since…money leverages knowledge by
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providing it with a transition vehicle and a high profile in the eyes of the governments that
approve projects.”
To counter these trends, President Kim announced recently that the maximum loan book IBRD
can support will increase by $100 billion, reaching $300 billion in a decade (World Bank 2014).
This will allow IBRD leading to nearly double, from current levels of around $15 to $26 or $28
billion per year. This increase will not be financed by a capital increase but changes to
minimum equity-to-loan ration, allowing the World Bank to take on more loans relative to its
total capital. IBRD also plans to increase the single borrower limit by $2.5 billion for Brazil,
China, Indonesia, India, and Mexico, while making slight changes to loan terms. In total, World
Bank Group lending could increase to $70 billion over the next decade. This increased lending
will finance efforts to advance the twin goals advanced in the World Bank’s new corporate
strategy: ending extreme poverty and building shared prosperity, and will likely require more
rapid disbursement of loans and increased sale of advisory services. President Kim plans to do
this while cutting $400 million in costs over three years (about 8% of total spending).
B. Type of Lending
Eligible World Bank members may receive support from IBRD, IDA, or both. Currently, 79
countries are eligible for IBRD lending, 64 countries are eligible for IDA financing, and 17
countries are eligible for a blend of IBRD and IDA financing (IBRD 2013; IDA 2013).
IBRD offers several loan products, but the most common is the IFI Flexible Loan. These loans
have maturities of up to 30 years, a lending rate set at 6-month LIBOR plus either a fixed or
variable spread, and a front-end fee of 25 basis points. Countries are eligible for concessional
IDA financing (credits) or outright IDA grants on the basis of lack of creditworthiness and
relative poverty. The current operational cutoff for IDA eligibility is a per capita 2011 GNI of
$1,195 (with an exception for small island states). That said, there is no automatic graduation
rule linked to per-capita income—the operational cutoff is only a trigger for initiating broader
discussions about continuing IDA eligibility.
Table 5 describes the kinds of financing available from IDA. On average, over the last five
years, about 20% of IDA’s lending commitments have been in the form of outright grants.
Table 5: IDA loan terms
Loan Terms Interest Service Charge
IDA only 40 yrs including 10 yr grace period 0 75 basis points
Blend 25 yrs including 5 yr grace period 1.25% 75 basis points
Blend (hard terms) 25 yrs including 5 yr grace period 1.5% 75 basis points
Source: IDA (2013)
World Bank lending can be differentiated into three categories: investment lending,
development policy lending, and results-based lending. Investment lending focuses on
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providing the goods and services needed for development over the longer term. Physical
infrastructure was the initial focus of this kind of lending, but investment lending now supports
social infrastructure and institutional capacity building as well. Development policy lending or
development policy operations (once called adjustment lending), on the other hand, supports
reforms to government policy. Initially focused on macroeconomic policy (“structural
adjustment”), adjustment lending now supports sectorial, structural, and social reforms.
Adjustment lending is a small part of IDA’s portfolio, typically accounting for less than 20% of
its lending and accounting for only $1.9 billion, or 12% of its lending in 2013 (IDA 2013).
Adjustment lending has played an increasingly important role at IBRD, however. In 1980, less
than 4% of the IBRD portfolio was adjustment lending, a figure that had increased to 11% by
1985. By the early- to mid-1990s, adjustment lending reached 20-25% of total IBRD lending
(World Bank 2001). Since then, adjustment lending has continued to increase.
Figure 2 shows IBRD’s lending by lending type over the past 15 years. As the graph shows, the
mix of investment and adjustment lending now varies considerably by year, but with no real
discernible pattern. Development Policy Operations have averaged 40% of IBRD lending over
the past 15 years. In 2013, IBRD committed $8.1 billion in investment lending (53%) and $7.1
billion for development policy operations (46%). For the Bank as a whole, development policy
lending accounted for 35% of total commitments in 2012. Table 6 shows the top recipients of
this type of lending at the IBRA and IDA in 2013.
Figure 2: IBRD lending by type, 2000-2013
Source: IBRD (2013)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Percent
Program-for-Results
Development Policy
Operations
Investment Lending
12
Table 6: Top Recipients of IBRA and IDA Development Policy Lending, 2013
Development Policy Operations: IBRD
Country Number Value (million USD)
Brazil 5 1,650
Poland 1 1,308
Turkey 1 800
Colombia 3 600
Morocco 4 593
Development Policy Operations: IDA
Country Number Value (million USD)
Myanmar 1 440
Vietnam 3 370
Tanzania 2 175
Rwanda 2 100
Nigeria 1 100
Mozambique 2 100
Malawi 2 100
In January 2012, IBRD and IDA announced a new results-based lending instrument, called
Program-for-Results (P4R). The Bank provides funds to governments for programs that
support government projects, but the disbursement of funds is linked to the achievement of
measureable and verifiable development results. The Bank hopes P4R will help build capacity
of partner countries, engender institutional change, reduce fraud and corruption, and enhance
overall development effectiveness. Table 7 shows P4R commitments over time, including
forecasted commitments for 2014.
Table 7: Program for Results Lending (million USD)
Organization 2012 2013 2014
IBRD 300 66 990
IDA 60 710 1,350
Total 630 776 2,350
In response to civil society concerns, the Bank agreed to a two-year pilot program for P4R,
capping disbursements at 5% of total lending and prohibiting the use of P4R for Category A
projects (those with the highest social and environmental risk). P4R programs do no not require
the application of Bank safeguards; instead, they rely on borrowers’ social and environmental
management systems to manage risks. While the Bank makes information about each program
publically available, each borrower decides what information about particular program
activities will be publically available.
13
The Bank is currently undertaking a review of the eight approved P4R projects and the 16 under
preparation, with a draft expected by the end of the fiscal year. But experience with P4R has
been very limited. As of October 2013, only $19 million had been disbursed against achieved
results (World Bank 2013). The Bank hopes P4R will be part of a broader effort to move from
‘compliance’ to ‘results’ and to improve country ownership. It has already proved popular with
countries for reducing transaction costs and promoting greater country ownership. Many
important questions about P4R remain. It is not yet clear how well results can be measured and
verified. The program’s transparency, supervision, and accountability have also been
questioned. The Bank’s suite of safeguard systems do not apply to the program, and the
operational policy governing P4R does not clearly specify how alternatives at the country level
will be applied. Nevertheless, some analysts have suggested P4R could eventually account for
15% to 33% of total lending (BIC 2012).
C. Beneficiaries of Lending
Figure 3 shows the distribution of Bank lending by region. With the exception of smaller flows
to the Middle East and North Africa, bank lending is more or less evenly distributed. Africa,
however, receives almost no money from IBRD, while Europe and Central Asia and Latin
America and the Caribbean receive very little money from IDA.
Figure 4 shows the distribution of Bank projects by region. The picture that emerges is similar,
but shows that IDA tends to have more projects with smaller amounts of money.
Figure 3: World Bank Commitments by Geographic Region, 2013
$42
$4,591
$3,661
$4,769
$1,809
$378
$8,203
$729 $2,586 $435
$249
$4,096
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Africa East Asia and
Pacific
Europe and
Central Asia
Latin America
and Carribbean
Middle East South Asia
MillionsofUSD
IBRD IDA
$8,245
$5,320
$6,247
$5,204
$2,058
$4,474
14
Figure 4: World Bank Operations by Geographic Region, 2013
Table 8 shows the top 10 recipients of cumulative IBRD, IDA, and total World Bank lending
between 1945 and 2013. Both IBRD and IDA lending has tended to be heavily concentrated in a
handful of countries; funding for the 10 largest lending recipients accounts for more than 50% of
total cumulative funding.
Table 8: Cumulative Lending, 1945-2013 (millions of USD)
IBRD IDA World Bank
(IBRD+IDA)
Brazil 56,268 India 44,474 India 93,137
Mexico 52,859 Bangladesh 19,656 Brazil 56,268
India 48,663 Pakistan 15,845 Mexico 52,859
Indonesia 45,423 Vietnam 15,122 China 52,392
China 42,445 Ethiopia 11,499 Indonesia 48,299
Turkey 36,277 China 9,947 Turkey 36,455
Argentina 29,277 Tanzania 9,633 Argentina 29,227
Colombia 19,449 Nigeria 9,573 Pakistan 24,207
South Korea 15,472 Ghana 7,611 Bangladesh 19,702
Philippines 15,102 Kenya 7,341 Colombia 19,469
subtotal 361,235 subtotal 150,701 subtotal 432,015
cumulative
lending
586,201 cumulative
lending
268,500 cumulative
lending
854,701
% of total 61.6 % of total 56.1 % of total 50.5
Source: IBRD (2013)
4
25 24 28
9
2
91
22
18 13
7
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Africa East Asia and
Pacific
Europe and
Central Asia
Latin America
and Carribbean
Middle East South Asia
NumberofOperations
IBRD IDA
47
42 41
16
35
95
15
Table 9 shows the top 10 recipients of IBRD and IDA lending in FY2013. A few differences
between table 4 and table 5 are suggestive of broader changes in the recipients of World Bank
financing. Korea, for example, no longer takes new IBRD funding. IBRD has stepped up
funding for eastern European and central Asian countries like Romania, Poland, and
Kazakhstan. In the IDA column, Kenya and Mozambique, two high growth emerging markets
in sub-Saharan Africa, replace China (no longer using IDA financing) and Ghana.
Much has been made about the future of the World Bank’s relationship with middle income
countries, and this is going to be a key question for the Bank to address going forward.
President Jim Yong Kim has expressed strong support for a continued engagement with
middle-income borrowers.
Table 10 shows the top IBRD borrowers by share of loans outstanding over the last four years.
Seven of the top borrowers this year would have made the same list a decade ago. This table is
included to show that the change in composition of principal borrowers is a very slow process.
Table 9: Top 10 new IBRD and IDA commitments 2013 (USD millions)
IBRD Amount IDA Amount
Brazil 3,076 Vietnam 1,982
Indonesia 1,721 Bangladesh 1,567
China 1,540 Ethiopia 1,115
Poland 1,308 India 948
Turkey 1,301 Pakistan 744
Colombia 600 Kenya 615
Morocco 593 Tanzania 606
Djibouti 585 D.R. Congo 532
Yemen 500 Myanmar 520
Uruguay 408 Mozambique 337
Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013)
Table 10: Top IBRD Borrowers by Share of Loans Outstanding
2013 2012 2011 2010
Country $ bn % Country $ bn % Country $ bn % Country $ bn %
Mexico 14.9 10.5 Mexico 13.6 10.1 China 13 9.8 China 12.9 10.7
Turkey 12.9 9.1 China 13.1 9.8 Turkey 12.9 9.8 Brazil 11.3 9.4
China 12.9 9.1 Turkey 12.7 9.5 Mexico 12.2 9.2 India 10.8 9
Indonesia 12.4 8.7 India 11.7 8.7 India 11.4 8.6 Mexico 10.5 8.7
India 11.9 8.4 Brazil 10.1 7.5 Brazil 10.4 7.9 Turkey 10.2 8.5
Brazil 11.6 8.2 Indonesia 9.9 7.4 Indonesia 8.9 6.8 Indonesia 7.6 6.3
Columbia 7.8 5.5 Columbia 7.5 5.6 Colombia 7.5 5.6 Colombia 7.2 6
Poland 6.7 4.7 Poland 5.6 4.2 Poland 5.6 4.2 Argentina 5.3 4.4
Source: IBRD (2013); Moody’s (2012)
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WORLD BANK SOURCES OF FUNDING
The World Bank’s lending, investments, and general operations are funded by equity (paid-in
capital and retained earnings) and borrowing (debt issuance).
Equity
Each World Bank Group institution is owned by member countries—its shareholders.
Ownership and therefore voting rights are proportional to each shareholder’s capital
contributions. Table 11 and Table 12 show the top 15 shareholders of the IBRD and the IDA,
respectively.
The World Bank is governed by a Board of Governors (one from each country) and a Board of
25 Executive Directors. By convention, the Executive Directors of IBRD, IDA, IFC, and MIGA
are the same. This means that although the top shareholders for each institution may vary,
relative voting power based on IBRD contributions tends to determine influence across the
World Bank Group.
Table 11: Top 15 Subscriptions to IBRD Capital Stock as of June 30, 2013
# Member Total Subscription
Amount (million USD)
Paid In
(million USD)
Callable
(million USD)
% of Votes
1 United States 35,814 2,229 33,585 15.19
2 Japan 19,958 1,222 18,736 8.48
3 China 12,859 775 12,084 5.47
4 Germany 10,522 652 9,900 4.50
5 France 9,409 853 8,826 4.01
6 United Kingdom 9,409 602 8,807 4.01
7 Canada 7,040 433 6,607 3.01
8 India 6,845 413 6,432 2.93
9 Italy 5,663 351 5,312 2.43
10 Russia 5,529 334 5,195 2.37
11 Saudi Arabia 5,529 335 5,194 2.37
12 Netherlands 4,781 295 4,486 2.05
13 Brazil 4,104 246 3,859 1.77
14 Belgium 3,910 240 3,670 1.68
15 Spain 3,809 233 3,576 1.64
Source: IBRD (2013)
17
Table 12: Top 15 IDA Subscriptions and Contributions as of June 30, 2013
# Member Total Subscription
Amount (million USD)
1 United States 46,543
2 Japan 40,890
3 United Kingdom 24,976
4 Germany 24,068
5 France 15,899
6 Canada 10,228
7 Italy 9,552
8 Netherlands 8,201
9 Sweden 7,460
10 Australia 4,077
11 Belgium 4,051
12 Switzerland 3,954
13 Norway 3,642
14 Denmark 3,387
15 Spain 3,161
Source: IDA (2012)
IBRD members purchase shares of the bank, but pay in only 6% of the cost of shares purchased.
The rest of the capital remains “on call.” If the IBRD suffers large losses—for example, if several
large borrowers defaulted on their loans at the same time—the Bank could collect “on call”
capital from its shareholders in order to pay its creditors, although the Bank has never needed
to make a call on capital.
In April 2010, World Bank members agreed to the first capital increase 1988 (Beattie 2010).
Members authorized a General Capital Increase of $58.4 billion ($3.5 billion paid in) and a
Selective Capital Increase of $27.8 billion ($1.6 billion paid in). This will increase the Bank’s
authorized capital to $278.4 billion and increase the Bank’s $11 billion of paid-in capital by $5.1
billion. Members also agreed to reforms that will increase the voting power of developing
countries, from 44.06% to 47.19%. As part of the deal, China has become the third-largest
shareholder, after the United States and Japan. The complements prior reforms enacted in 2008,
when the voting power of developing countries was increased by 1.46% and an additional 25th
seat on the Board of Executive Directors was added for sub-Saharan Africa, bringing the
region’s total number of seats to three.
It is highly unlikely that the Bank will receive another capital infusion in the near future.
President Kim recently told reporters that he sees “no appetite” for another capital increase.
“It’s a tough environment,” he said. “I think it’s not the time for us to have a serious discussion
about a capital increase” (Rastello 2012).
18
IDA raises funds through “replenishments” that occur every three years. The level of funding it
receives depends on how much its donors commit. The sixteenth IDA replenishment, finalized
in December 2010, netted SDR 32.8 billion ($49.3 billion) for FY2012-2014. The seventeenth IDA
replenishment, recently completed, brought in $52 billion. (SDR, or special drawing rights, are a
kind of foreign exchange asset created by the IMF; at current rates, 1SDR = $1.53; see IMF 2012.)
This amount includes transfers from the IBRD and IFC of $3 billion. Table 13 provides the
history of IDA replenishments.
Table 13: IDA Replenishments
Replenishment Period Amount (million SDR)
Initial 1961-1964 763
IDA1 1965-1968 924
IDA2 1969-1971 1,428
IDA3 1972-1974 2,738
IDA4 1975-1977 4,218
IDA5 1978-1980 6,193
IDA6 1981-1984 9,549
FY84 Account 1984 1318
Special Account 1984 519
IDA7 1985-1987 8,997
Special Facility for Africa 1986-1988 921
IDA8 1988-1990 1,677
IDA9 1991-1993 14,049
IDA10 1994-1996 16,274
Interim Trust Fund 1997 2228
IDA11 1997-1999 12,395
IDA12 2000-2002 15,312
IDA13 2003-2005 17,833
IDA14 2006-2008 22693
Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative 2007-2044 22,737
IDA15 2009-2011 27,300
IDA16 2012-2014 32,800
IDA 17 2015-2018 36,550
Source: IDA (2012); Marshall (2008)
Both IBRD and IFC make transfers to IDA on a yearly basis. Over the IDA 17 period, about $3
billion will be transferred from IBRD and IFC, an amount that is equal in real terms to transfers
in the prior period. As IBRD profitability declines (see “Operating Income” below), its ability to
fund IDA will be constricted. Some of the shortfall could be offset by rising IFC transfers to
IDA, but any significant increase in IDA funding will require increasing donor contributions.
19
Borrowing
The World Bank raises the majority of its capital by issuing debt to both institutional and retail
investors. Since 1947, the Bank has issued bonds in 54 different currencies, and in FY2012 it
issued bonds in 23 currencies. Funding levels depend on lending activity as well as broader
macroeconomic conditions. Bond maturities generally range from 2 to 10 years, and the issue
size is typically USD$1-3 billion. Moody’s rates the World Bank Aaa, the highest possible
rating. It cites the Bank’s strong capital base, status as a preferred creditor, and sound financial
management.
Operating Income
The World Bank’s operating income depends primarily on the margin it makes on the loans it
issues (net of funding costs), the return on its investments, and its noninterest expenses, of
which the largest is staff costs. Operating income has been positive every year since Moody’s
began evaluating the Bank, and it has averaged around $1.1 billion over the past five years.
Operating income was $876 million in 2013.
Figure 5 shows the Bank’s real loan income has declined over the past decade. Figure 6 shows
that this has translated into a decline in real operating income. As Moody’s notes, “IBRD’s
profitability is low relative to historical averages, but for a development-mandated institution
Moody’s primary consideration of profitability is not the magnitude, but that it does not
contribute to the erosion of the capital base” (Moody’s 2012). Declining operating income is
largely a function of declining real lending.
Figure 5: IBRD Loan Income (millions of 2013 USD)
Note: Amounts adjusted to 2013 USD using the US CPI-All Urban Consumers index (base 1982-1984)
Source: IBRD (2013)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Millionsof2013USD
20
Figure 6: IBRD Operating Income (millions of 2013 USD)
Note: Amounts adjusted to 2013USD using the US CPI-All Urban Consumers index (base 1982-1984)
Source: IBRD (2013)
In order to avoid further decreases in operating income given current constraints on lending,
the Bank could increase its loan price (not likely given competition from other lending sources),
reduce transfers (especially to IDA), reduce overheads (including staffing costs and other
administrative expenses), or increase lending volume.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATON
The International Finance Corporation focuses on private sector investment in emerging
markets. Its three main lines of business include investment services, advisory services, and
asset management. Table 14 shows nominal IFC investments by type over the last five years.
In FY2013, IFC committed $18.3 billion of its own funds in loans and equity investments, an
increase of nearly 75% in nominal terms since 2009. President Kim announced recently that IFC
lending could double over the next 10 years (World Bank 2014). IFC commitments include both
loans (typically with maturities of 7 to 12 years) and equity investments (typically a 5% to 20%
stake). IFC also offers guarantees and other forms of structured finance (IFC 2013).
IFC also tracks “core mobilization,” financing from other sources (not IFC money) that becomes
available to IFC clients as a result of IFC’s involvement in a project. This includes a variety of
financial tools, such as parallel loans (arranged by IFC for a fee, but where IFC is not the lender)
and loan participation (IFC acts as the lender of record and administers the entire loan, but the
loan includes funding from non-IFC sources). Core mobilization was $6.5 billion in 2013, a
nearly 65% increase in nominal terms over the past five years
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Millionsof2013USD
21
Table 13: IFC investments and mobilization by type (millions of USD)
Type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
IFC Commitments 10,547 12,664 12,186 15,462 18,349
Loans 5,959 5720 4,991 6,668 8,502
Equity 2,069 2974 1,968 2,282 2,732
Guarantees/other 2,519 3969 5,227 6,512 7,079
Core Mobilization 3,964 5378 6,474 4,896 6,504
Loan Mobilization 2,401 3,157 4,718 3,505 3,578
AMC 8 236 454 437 768
Other Initiatives 1,555 1,985 1,302 954 2,158
Total 14,511 18,042 18,660 20,358 24,853
Source: IFC (2013)
IFC’s Asset Management Company (AMC) mobilizes and manages third-party capital from
institutional investors, like sovereign finds and pension funds. AMC manages seven funds,
with $5.5 billion under management. These are (1) the Equity Capitalization Fund and (2) the
Sub-Debt Capitalization Fund, which both strengthen banks, (3) the ALAC Fund, investing in a
range of sectors across Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, (4) the African Capitalization
Fund, investing in commercial banks, (5) the Russian Bank Capitalization Fund, investing in
commercial banks, (6) the Catalyst Funds, investing in emerging market private equity funds
focused on climate change and resource efficiency, and (7) the Global Infrastructure Fund,
making debt and equity investments in emerging market infrastructure.
IFC lending has rapidly increased as a proportion of total World Bank Group lending over the
past decade, indicating a strong belief in the importance of private sector investment for
international development. Figure 7 demonstrates this. In 2000, IFC commitments accounted
for less than 13% of total World Bank Group commitments. This rose to 30% over the next eight
years. While IFC lending continued to increase through the global financial crisis, it did not do
so at the same rate as IBRD lending, so the share of IFC commitments relative to World Bank
Group commitments dropped. But over the last three years, IFC lending has continued to rise
as IBRD lending has fallen, and IFC now accounts for nearly 35% of total World Bank Group
commitments. If MIGA is included in this calculation, around 40% of World Bank Group
investments now support private sector ventures.
A significant portion of IFC’s investments support financial intermediaries (third party financial
institutions like banks or private equity funds, and the percentage of IFC’s total investment
going into financial intermediaries is also increasing. In 2013, more than 60% of IFC’s
commitments supported financial intermediaries. Analysis by the Bretton Woods Project (2014)
shows that $36 billion has been invested by the IFC in financial intermediaries since 2009.
22
Figure 7: IFC commitments as percentage of total World Bank Group commitments
Source: IFC (2013)
MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY
The goal of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) is to stimulate foreign direct
investment into developing countries. It does this providing political risk insurance
(guarantees) to protect against expropriation, breach of contract, non-honoring of financial
obligations, currency inconvertibility, terrorism and civil disturbance, and other non-
commercial risks. In 2013, MIGA issued $2.8 billion in guarantees, with an additional $3.5
million issued under MIGA-administered trust funds (MIGA 2013). This is double (in nominal
terms) the $1.4 billion in guarantees issued five years ago, in 2009.
Over the past five years, MIGA has supported about 27 new projects and 33 total projects per
year, and it supported 30 total projects and 26 new projects in 2013. By financing volume,
nearly three quarters of MIGA guarantees issues in 2013 supported IDA-eligible counties,
including more than 40% to conflict-affected states. Nearly 55% supported projects in Sub-
Saharan Africa. Recently, MIGA support has shifted to infrastructure (46% of new volume in
2013) and oil and gas (23% of new volume), moving away from the financial sector (17% of
volume in 2013 versus 89% following the 2008 financial crisis).
MIGA’s strategy for 2014-2017 calls for work on infrastructure, power generation,
transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and finance. MIGA will work to expand its product
line and reach a broader client base. It will continue to prioritize work in IDA-eligible countries
and fragile and conflict-affected states.
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
PercentoftotalWBGlending
23
TRUST FUNDS
Trusts funds were initially designed to give bilateral donors a mechanism for co-financing
specific projects. For example, the first World Bank trust fund, established in 1960, allowed co-
financing of the Indus Basin Project in Pakistan. In the 1990s, the trust fund model expanded as
the Bank took on new roles, particularly in the environmental arena. But truly explosive
growth in trust funds has happened only over the last half decade. Since 2007 alone, the total
value of World Bank Group trust funds has increased almost 73%, growing from $17.3 billion to
$29.2 billion (World Bank 2012c). Trust funds are especially important part of the Bank’s
strategy for addressing global public goods issues, like immunization or climate change, that
are not easily addressed through the Bank’s traditional lending instruments.
The increasing importance of trust funds at the World Bank mirrors broader changes in global
aid design, particularly the rise of so-called “multi-bilateral aid”—bilateral funding earmarked
for a particular purpose that is funneled through multilateral agencies. Multi-bi aid increased
from $9 billion in 2007 to $16.7 billion in 2010, and it now accounts for around 12% of gross
ODA (excluding debt relief). Multi-donor trust funds constitute about 50% of all Bank trust
funds, compared to 30% just five years ago. About a quarter of all multi-bi aid flows through
the World Bank.
Table 15 provides a snapshot of the World Bank Group’s three major types of trust funds
categories: IBRD/IDA trust finds, financial intermediary funds (FIFs), and the IFC trust funds.
Table 16 shows how the World Bank Group’s trust funds changed between 2008 and 2012, in
absolute terms and as a percentage change from 2008.
Table 15: Overview of World Bank Group Trust Funds, 2012
Source: World Bank (2012c)
Table 16: Change in World Bank Group Trust Funds, 2012 v. 2008
Number Funds Held
(USD billions)
FY12 Contributions
(USD billions)
FY12 Disbursements
(USD billions)
IBRD/IDA TFs -37 (-4.8%) +1.0 (+11.5%) +0.4 (+10.0%) +1 (+30.3%)
FIFs +5 (+10.2%) +7.2 (+67.9%) +2.7 (+60%) +2 (+62.5%)
IFC TFs +47 (+22.0%) +0.5 (+100%) +0.1 (+50%) +0.1 (+50%)
TOTAL +45 (+4.4%) +8.5 (+41%) 3.2 (+36.2%) +3 (+44.7%)
Source: World Bank (2012c)
Number Funds Held
(USD billions)
2012 Contributions
(USD billions)
2012 Disbursements
(USD billions)
IBRD/IDA TFs 720 9.7 4.4 4.3
FIFs 54 17.8 7.2 5.2
IFC TFs 290 1 0.3 0.3
TOTAL 1064 29.2 11.9 9.7
24
A. IBRD/IDA Trust Funds
IBRD/IDA trust funds account for 33% of World Bank Group trust funds by value. Since 2008,
funds held in trust in IBRD/IDA trust funds have increased from $8.7 billion to $9.7 billion, cash
contributions have increased from $4.0 billion to $4.4 billion, and disbursements have increased
from $3.3 billion to $4.3 billion (World Bank 2012c; IEG 2011). Ongoing efforts to consolidate
trust funds caused the overall number of IBR/IDA trust funds to decline to 720 in 2012, down
from a peak of 780 in 2010. While 84 new trust funds were established, 122 existing funds were
closed (World Bank 2012c).
The IBRD and IDA use two types of trust funds: Bank-Executed Trust Funds (BETFs) and
Recipient-Executed Trust Funds (RETFs). BETF disbursements directly support Bank programs,
typically in ‘knowledge activities’ like non-lending technical assistance. A significant portion of
BETF disbursements are used to support Bank supervision of RETF-funded projects. BETF
expenditures reached $646 million in 2012, equal to 23% of total World Bank administrative
expenditures.
Funds in RETFs, on the other hand, are passed on to third parties for development activities
that are usually monitored and evaluated by the Bank. RETF disbursements reached $3.6
billion in 2012, up 13% from the year before. They accounted for 10% of the World Bank’s total
project financing (a 9% increase from 2011). Two thirds of RETF disbursements support
activities in IDA countries.
B. FIFs
The World Bank’s role in financial intermediary funds is as a trustee: it receives, holds, invests,
and transfers funds, often to multiple implementing agencies. As a trustee, the World Bank
does not supervise the use of funds, but it may serve as a partner in implementation. The Bank
may also provide additional administrative or financial services or serve as the Secretariat. FIFs
typically support global programs, on topics like health (51% of FIFs) and the environment and
climate change (32% of FIFs) (World Bank 2011c).
FIFs account for 61% of World Bank Group trust funds by value, and they are also the major
source of trust fund growth at the Bank. Over the past six years, funds held in trust in FIFs
have more than doubled, from $8.9 billion in 2007 to $17.8 billion in 2012. Cash contributions
from donors have also more than doubled over the same period, and transfers to implementing
agencies and beneficiaries have increased by more than 50%. Some 96% of contributions are
from governments. The United States is the largest donor, with cumulative contributions of
$6.4 billion over the last five years. Other big contributors are the UK ($3.2 billion), France ($2.9
billion), and Japan ($2.3 billion).
As table 17 illustrates, the four largest FIFs hold 86% of all FIF funds. Still, three new FIFs were
established in 2012: the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean Financial Intermediary Trust Fund
25
(EBSM), the Global Partnership for Education Fund (GPEF), and the Green Climate Fund Trust
Fund.
Table 17: The Four Largest FIFs
Fund Established
Cumulative Funding
(USD billions)
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis
and Malaria (GFATM)
2002 22.5
Global Environment Facility (GEF) 1991 11.3
Debt Relief Trust Fund (DRTF) 1996 7.7
Climate Investment Funds (CIF) 2008 5.2
Other --- 7.4
Total --- 54.1
Source: World Bank (2012c); World Bank (2011c)
C. IFC TFs
IFC trust funds account for only about 1% of the total value of the World Bank Group’s trust
funds, but they are important because they support 80% of IFC’s advisory services. IFC offers
these services to businesses and governments in four categories: access to finance, investment
climate, public-private partnerships, and sustainable business.
The number of IFC trust funds increased from 213 in 2008 to 290 in 2012, and the total value of
IFC trust funds doubled over that same period, from $0.5 billion to $1 billion. Disbursements
peaked at $1 billion in 2010, but are typically around $0.3 billion per year (World Bank 2012c).
Over the past five years, the United Kingdom has been the largest donor to IFC trust funds,
providing 25% of all contributions. The MasterCard Foundation was the 4th largest donor in
2012, providing $37.5 million for the Partnership for Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa.
D. Trust Fund Reform
From the perspectives of the World Bank, development donors, and development recipients,
trust funds have both advantages and disadvantages (see World Bank 2012c; World Bank 2011c;
IEG 2011).
Advantages: Trust funds…
 Help fill gaps in existing development efforts by, for example, providing funds to post-
disaster or post-conflict countries that are ineligible for IBRD/IDA support or by
catalyzing investment in global public goods like climate change mitigation
 Promote the coordination/harmonization of bilateral aid efforts and support the
formation of new development partnerships
 Secure broader support for and complement existing Bank work
26
 Allow doors to use the broader capacities of multilateral institutions
 Reduce transaction and administrative costs and provide economies of scale
Disadvantages: Trust funds…
 Are often not well-integrated into other Bank efforts and activities or into existing
country programs
 Often do not allow recipient countries to participate in their design and use, particularly
for global funds
 Reduce the visibility of individual donors and therefore the credit they receive
 Reallocate existing ODA but do not increase it
 Reduce transparency, especially because data is difficult to compile and sources conflict
 Are not (or are not as easily) subjected to World Bank safeguards
In 2010, the Independent Evaluation Group undertook an evaluation of the World Bank’s trust
fund portfolio and proposed a variety of changes, some of which are now being implemented
(IEG 2011). For example, the World Bank is creating Umbrella Facilities in an effort to better
align the interests of trust fund donors with existing Bank priorities. Only a few such facilities
have been established so far.
STAFFING
By the time of the first annual World Bank meeting in Savannah, Georgia in 1946, the World
Bank had 38 member countries and 72 staff members (Phillips 2009). By the 1960s, as Bank
lending began to pick up, so did the growth in the size of its staff. Between 1960 and 1970, the
number of professional staff more than tripled over the decade, growing from 283 to 917
(Mallaby 2004). Staff growth continued in the 1970s as President Robert MacNamara added
new departments and responsibilities: the Rural Development Department in 1973, the Urban
Population Department in 1975, and the Population, Health, and Nutrition Department in 1979.
Jim Wolfensohn also oversaw growth in the Bank’s staff as it expanded to new areas, especially
the environment (in 1985 the Bank had only five environmental staff). Wolfensohn also
oversaw a push to move staff out of the Washington, D.C. headquarters and into the field. In
1995, for example, none of the Bank’s country directors were based outside of Washington. By
2003, 71% of them were. Today, the World Bank employs some 10,000 people, around 40% of
whom work in field offices in 110+ countries.
The Bank does not publish detailed data on its staff, but it is possible to make some
observations based on its financial statements. Staff costs are lower now than they were in the
1990s, but the Bank is increasingly reliant on outside consultants for its work. The average staff
cost over the last four years has been $490 million per year. In the first four years of the 1990s,
by comparison, the average staff cost was more than $660 million per year (or more than $1100
million per year in real terms). Consulting costs in the early 1990s, though, averaged $84
27
million per year (or $130 million per year in real terms). In 2012, the Bank spent more than $250
million on consultants. Of course, it is not clear from existing data to what extent changes in
staff costs correlate with the number of staff or reflect instead cuts to salaries and benefits. It is
also not clear how changes in staff costs have impacted staff quality.
An ongoing reorganization and restructuring process is leading to the creation of 14 global
practices, working on areas like agriculture, environment and natural resources, and
governance. These global practices replace the previous “sector” structure and are designed to
reduce silos that prevented collaboration and exchange of knowledge and learning across
regions and World Bank group institutions. The Bank will also have “cross cutting solution
areas: climate change, gender, jobs, public private partnerships, and fragility, conflict, and
violence (Harding 2014; FT 2014). The reorganization has also brought the departure of several
senior Bank managers.
A recent staff survey illustrates the Bank staff feel uncertainty about the direction in which the
Bank is headed (Gillison 2014). Among the findings are that 60% of staff think the Bank places
more emphasis on the “number and volume of transactions” than on development. Some 58%
do not understand the direction chosen senior management, and 68% do not think senior
management acts as a unified team. Less than 40% of Bank staff thinks that they are rewarded
according to their job performance. It remains to be seen whether President Kim can
successfully shepherd the World Bank through this reorganization process and what sort of
institution will emerge when this is completed.
28
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tePK:299948,00.html
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Some Evolving Trends at the World Bank

  • 1. BRIEFING NOTE SOME EVOLVING TRENDS AT THE WORLD BANK: LENDING, FUNDING, STAFFING Kevin Currey Natural Resources and Sustainable Development The Ford Foundation May 2014
  • 2. 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This briefing note explores ongoing macro-level changes at the World Bank. It focuses on four major trends: (1) changes in lending, including amount of lending, type of lending, and recipient countries; (2) changes in income sources; (3) the growth of trust funds; and (4) trends in staffing. The findings presented here are intended to help shape future engagements with the Bank by placing its operations in a broader context. Major findings: (1) Total World Bank lending has declined in real terms in recent years, driven by a significant decline in International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) lending. IBRD commitments averaged more than $25 billion per year during the 1980s and 1990s, but commitments have since declined and are expected to average around $15 billion per year in the near term. This decline is the result of a number of factors, including insufficiently large capital infusions and reduced borrower demand stemming from low global interest rates and the growing availability of alternative funding sources. Declining Bank lending coincides with declining profitability. President Kim has recently announced plans to nearly double IBRD lending over the next several years, but it is not clear how this will be achieved. (2) International Development Association (IDA) lending has continued to increase in real terms, but IDA funding is increasingly dependent on donor contributions. Declining IBRD income limits the size of the subsidy IBRD can provide to IDA and increases the importance of individual IDA donors. (3) World Bank Group funding to support the private sector has increased dramatically, both in absolute terms and relative to overall spending. In 2013, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) accounted for 35% of World Bank Group commitments, compared with 18% in 2009 and only 13% in 2000. IFC support for financial intermediaries has also increased rapidly over the last several years. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) commitments have doubled in the past five years, albeit from a low base. (4) The Bank has always faced a pressure to lend, stemming from structural factors (administrative costs are covered by profits from loans), institutional factors (the real or perceived importance of ‘moving money’ for staff promotions), and external factors (demands from donors and shareholders). But while lending has declined, the pressure to expedite disbursements remains stronger than ever. This is because of the increasing pressure from both clients and donors to be more efficient and because of the increasing availability of alternative funding sources for national governments. While these changes have the potential to make the Bank more responsive and effective, they also pose a potential risk to policies, like the suite of safeguards, which could be perceived as impediments to speedy disbursement.
  • 3. 3 (5) IBRD lending is shifting from investment lending toward development policy lending and the newly established Program-for Results (P4R). An evolving development context and changes in client demand are contributing to this shift. Efforts like P4R that seek to reorient the Bank from a ‘compliance focus’ to a ‘results focus’ offer both opportunities and risks. (6) The influence of individual donors has increased through the rapid rise of trust funds. Trust funds have become increasingly central to the Bank’s efforts to address global public goods problems, but they also present complex management challenges and threaten to reduce the overall coordination of Bank activities. (7) Declining income at the Bank has triggered reductions in staff costs. This has been accomplished in a variety of ways, including an increased reliance on trust funds to cover some of these costs. (8) In sum, declining profitability at IBRD places pressure on the Bank to be more competitive with other lenders. This could have the positive effect of helping the Bank strengthen key areas of differentiation, but it could also lead to reduced attention to safeguards and other perceived impediments to efficient lending. Notes: Unless otherwise stated, years listed in this report refer to the World Bank Group fiscal year. The World Bank refers to IBRD and IDA; World Bank Group refers to all five institutions. This paper represents the views of the author only and does not necessarily represent the views of the Ford Foundation.
  • 4. 4
  • 5. 5 Five institutions make up the World Bank Group: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The first two institutions, IBRD and IDA, are collectively referred to as the World Bank. Table 1 provides an overview of these institutions and their roles. Table 1: The World Bank Group At-A-Glance Institution Est. Members Cumulative Commitments (billion USD) FY2013 Commitments (billion USD) Purpose International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 1944 188 586.2 15.2 Lends to creditworthy middle- and low-income countries; provides advisory and analytical services International Development Association (IDA) 1960 173 268.5 16.3 Offers highly concessional loans (called credits) and grants for the poorest countries International Finance Corporation (IFC) 1956 184 183.4 18.3 Stimulates private-sector investment in emerging markets through loans, risk-management products, equity finance, and advisory services Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) 1988 180 30.0 2.8 Promotes investment in emerging economies by offering guarantees to protect investors and lenders against losses from noncommercial risk International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) 1966 150 [282 concluded cases] [1 concluded case] Promotes investment by providing facilities to help countries arbitrate investment disputes Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013); IFC (2013); MIGA (2013); ICSID (2013).
  • 6. 6 WORLD BANK LENDING Both the World Bank’s mission and its approach to executing it have evolved considerably over time. Created in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944, IBRD‘s initial tasks were to address capital deficiency and stabilize a global economy ravaged by World War II (Phillips 2009). The Bank issued its first loan in 1947, committing $250 million to the French government to support reconstruction. But not long afterward, it turned its focus away from Europe and began to address global poverty. Since then, the history of the Bank has closely tracked broader trends in international development approaches (trends the Bank itself helped shape). In the 1950s and 1960s, investments in industry and infrastructure dominated the Bank’s portfolio, although later in the period the Bank began investing in capacity and institution building as well. In the 1970s, under the leadership of President Robert McNamera, the Bank veered into more direct approaches to poverty reduction, pioneering strategies like ‘basic human needs’ and ‘integrated rural development.’ During the 1980s, the Bank focused on structural adjustment, macroeconomic policies, debt, and efforts to increase private capital flows. This culminated in the emergence of the so-called Washington Consensus, favoring privatization, trade liberalization, deregulation, fiscal and tax policy reforms, and other hallmarks of neoliberal economic policy. In the 1990s and 2000s, the Bank focused on sustainable development and continued to strengthen its brand as a ‘knowledge bank’ offering technical expertise on a range of development issues. Most recently, the Bank expanded its footprint to address global public goods problems, like climate change. Today, however, the Bank is at a crossroads, and as the next section explains, it is not yet clear how the current existential crisis will be resolved. A. Amount of lending More than six decades after Bretton Woods, the World Bank’s cumulative lending now stands in excess of $1 trillion. In 2013, the World Bank Group committed $52.6 billion in total loans, grants, equity investments and guarantees. The World Bank (IBRD and IDA) committed $31.5 billion in loans, credits, grants, and guarantees. This includes $15.2 billion from IBRD, to support 92 operations in 35 countries, and $16.3 billion from IDA, to support 184 operations in 59 countries (IBRD 2013; IDA 2013). Table 2 shows nominal commitments for the World Bank Group institutions over the past five years. Figure 1 shows real (inflation-adjusted) World Bank lending commitments by year since 1970. As the graph illustrates, with a few exceptions, IBRD lending has declined in real terms since the late 1980s and early 1990s. This is more clearly demonstrated in table 3. Real IBRD lending commitments averaged around $26 billion per year between 1980 and 1999, but dropped to $16.6 billion per year during the next decade. Growth in IDA lending, on the other hand, has outpaced inflation, but the real rate of growth was higher in the 1970s and 1980s than today.
  • 7. 7 Table 2: Nominal World Bank Group commitments (billion USD), 2009-2013 Institution 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 World Bank 46.9 58.8 43.0 35.4 31.5 IBRD 32.9 44.2 26.7 20.6 15.2 IDA 14.0 14.6 16.3 14.8 16.3 IFC 10.5 12.7 12.2 15.5 18.3 MIGA 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.8 WBG Total 58.8 73.0 57.3 53.6 52.6 Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013); MIGA (2013); IFC (2013) Figure 1: Real IBRD, IDA, and total World Bank commitments by year (billion 2013 USD) Note: Amounts adjusted to 2013 USD using the US CPI-All Urban Consumers index (base 1982-1984) Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013) Table 3: Nominal/ real average yearly lending commitments by decade (billion 2012 USD) 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 Nominal IBRD 3.9 12.0 16.7 14.2 IDA 1.4 3.6 6.5 9.1 Real IBRD 16.1 26.2 25.6 16.6 IDA 6.1 8.0 9.9 10.6 Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 Billionsof2013USD IBRD commitments IDA commitments Total World Bank commitments
  • 8. 8 The exceptions to this trend are two spikes in lending, in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. For example, in the four years leading up to the global financial crisis, IBRD commitments averaged about $13.5 billion per year. IBRD dramatically ramped up lending in response to the crisis, making loan commitments of $32.9 billion in 2009 and $44.2 billion in 2010. But as the most immediate threats to global economic stability subside, IBRD lending has steadily declined to pre-crisis levels; after reaching a record high in 2010, IBRD lending commitments stood at $26.7 billion in 2011 and $20.6 billion last year. It declined $5.3 billion in 2013, to $15.2 billion. Capital adequacy tests and prudent risk management practices place upper limits on IBRD’s lending, but those limits are far from being exceeded (Moody’s 2012). IBRD’s Articles of Agreement set a statutory lending limit of a 1:1 gearing ratio, meaning that outstanding loans may not exceed the sum of subscribed capital, reserves, and surplus (World Bank 2012a). Outstanding loans and guarantees of $141 billion are currently 57% of the $250 billion lending limit. IBRD currently targets an equity-to-loan ratio of between 23% and 27%. This ratio has decreased since 2010, due to an increase in lending and decrease in useable equity, but it remains at the upper end of the target risk coverage range, at 26.8% (IBRD 2012). The Executive Directors also set Single Borrower Limits that restrict how much individual countries may borrow. In FY2013, this limit was set at $17.5 billion for India and $16.5 for other countries, and this will remain unchanged for FY2014 (IBRD 2013; Moody’s 2012). There are many interlinked reasons why IBRD lending is declining, including the failure to secure additional capital increases. But a significant factor may be reduced demand for IBRD loans stemming increased competition from other funding sources and low global interest rates. The Bank’s lending has never accounted for more than 5% of total international financial flows (Phillips 2009), but as these flows have rapidly increased, the Bank’s lending had failed to keep pace. Table 4 shows lending commitments from regional development banks as well as the China Development Bank and BNDES, the Brazilian Development Bank. (Capital flows from ODA, remittances, and FDI are included for reference). Lending from the four regional development banks has been increasing significantly, especially in the aftermath of the financial crisis. At the same time, middle income countries are increasingly financing their own development. Disbursements at BNDES have grown six-fold since 2000, and net profit has increased more than tenfold. Its lending in 2012 was almost four times more than IBRD lending. The China Development Bank had about $886 billion in loans outstanding in 2011, compared to only $136 billion in outstanding IBRD loans in FY2012. To put this number further in perspective, China has only $13 billion in loans outstanding from IBRD and has received cumulative loans of only slightly more than $50 billion from the World Bank. Moreover, China is now a major donor for other developing countries. China does not publish data on its overseas loans, but during the financial crisis, Chinese lending surpassed World Bank lending: the China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank committed
  • 9. 9 more than $110 billion to developing countries from 2008 to 2010, while IBRD and IFC together committed only $100 billion (Dyer et al. 2011). Finally, private capital flows are becoming increasingly important for development. Remittance flows to developing countries in 2012 were 13 times higher than World Bank lending and three times higher than total ODA; FDI inflows to developing countries were 22 times higher than World Bank lending and almost four times higher than total ODA. These forms of private capital are not perfect substitutes for Bank lending, of course, but they do represent an increased form of at least indirect competition. Table 4: Loan commitments by development banks Development Bank Commitment (billion USD) Year World Bank Group 52.6 2013 World Bank (IBRD+IDA) 31.6 2013 IBRD 15.3 2013 IDA 16.3 2013 China Development Bank 163+ 2011 BNDES 79.7 2012 Asian Development Bank (ADB) 10.2 2013 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) 12.3 2012 Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 10.7 2012 African Development Bank (AfDB) 8.5 2011 FDI inflows to developing countries 684 2012 Remittances to developing countries 406 2012 DAC ODA 134.8 2013 Source: IBRD (2012); EBRD (2012), ADB (2012); AfDB (2013); IDB (2011); World Bank (2012d); UNCTAD (2012); OECD (2013) All of these changes have pushed governments, both borrowers and other shareholders, to pressure the Bank to remove perceived impediments to faster disbursements. And the Bank needs to better ‘compete’ with other international financial institutions for other reasons as well, including the fact that its operating budget is derived from the margin it receives on its lending. The implications of reduced lending, discussed later in this brief, include a reduced subsidy from IBRD to IDA, a push for results-based lending, and pressure to focus on fewer, larger projects with better economies of scale. Lending, of course, it not the only measure of the Bank’s influence. The Bank also continues to plays a key role as a development policy expert, and other international financial institutions often benchmark their policies and practices against the Bank’s. But declining lending volumes may jeopardize this form of influence as well. As Phillips (2009:11) argues, “the “split between money and knowledge is in fact quite complex, since…money leverages knowledge by
  • 10. 10 providing it with a transition vehicle and a high profile in the eyes of the governments that approve projects.” To counter these trends, President Kim announced recently that the maximum loan book IBRD can support will increase by $100 billion, reaching $300 billion in a decade (World Bank 2014). This will allow IBRD leading to nearly double, from current levels of around $15 to $26 or $28 billion per year. This increase will not be financed by a capital increase but changes to minimum equity-to-loan ration, allowing the World Bank to take on more loans relative to its total capital. IBRD also plans to increase the single borrower limit by $2.5 billion for Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, and Mexico, while making slight changes to loan terms. In total, World Bank Group lending could increase to $70 billion over the next decade. This increased lending will finance efforts to advance the twin goals advanced in the World Bank’s new corporate strategy: ending extreme poverty and building shared prosperity, and will likely require more rapid disbursement of loans and increased sale of advisory services. President Kim plans to do this while cutting $400 million in costs over three years (about 8% of total spending). B. Type of Lending Eligible World Bank members may receive support from IBRD, IDA, or both. Currently, 79 countries are eligible for IBRD lending, 64 countries are eligible for IDA financing, and 17 countries are eligible for a blend of IBRD and IDA financing (IBRD 2013; IDA 2013). IBRD offers several loan products, but the most common is the IFI Flexible Loan. These loans have maturities of up to 30 years, a lending rate set at 6-month LIBOR plus either a fixed or variable spread, and a front-end fee of 25 basis points. Countries are eligible for concessional IDA financing (credits) or outright IDA grants on the basis of lack of creditworthiness and relative poverty. The current operational cutoff for IDA eligibility is a per capita 2011 GNI of $1,195 (with an exception for small island states). That said, there is no automatic graduation rule linked to per-capita income—the operational cutoff is only a trigger for initiating broader discussions about continuing IDA eligibility. Table 5 describes the kinds of financing available from IDA. On average, over the last five years, about 20% of IDA’s lending commitments have been in the form of outright grants. Table 5: IDA loan terms Loan Terms Interest Service Charge IDA only 40 yrs including 10 yr grace period 0 75 basis points Blend 25 yrs including 5 yr grace period 1.25% 75 basis points Blend (hard terms) 25 yrs including 5 yr grace period 1.5% 75 basis points Source: IDA (2013) World Bank lending can be differentiated into three categories: investment lending, development policy lending, and results-based lending. Investment lending focuses on
  • 11. 11 providing the goods and services needed for development over the longer term. Physical infrastructure was the initial focus of this kind of lending, but investment lending now supports social infrastructure and institutional capacity building as well. Development policy lending or development policy operations (once called adjustment lending), on the other hand, supports reforms to government policy. Initially focused on macroeconomic policy (“structural adjustment”), adjustment lending now supports sectorial, structural, and social reforms. Adjustment lending is a small part of IDA’s portfolio, typically accounting for less than 20% of its lending and accounting for only $1.9 billion, or 12% of its lending in 2013 (IDA 2013). Adjustment lending has played an increasingly important role at IBRD, however. In 1980, less than 4% of the IBRD portfolio was adjustment lending, a figure that had increased to 11% by 1985. By the early- to mid-1990s, adjustment lending reached 20-25% of total IBRD lending (World Bank 2001). Since then, adjustment lending has continued to increase. Figure 2 shows IBRD’s lending by lending type over the past 15 years. As the graph shows, the mix of investment and adjustment lending now varies considerably by year, but with no real discernible pattern. Development Policy Operations have averaged 40% of IBRD lending over the past 15 years. In 2013, IBRD committed $8.1 billion in investment lending (53%) and $7.1 billion for development policy operations (46%). For the Bank as a whole, development policy lending accounted for 35% of total commitments in 2012. Table 6 shows the top recipients of this type of lending at the IBRA and IDA in 2013. Figure 2: IBRD lending by type, 2000-2013 Source: IBRD (2013) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent Program-for-Results Development Policy Operations Investment Lending
  • 12. 12 Table 6: Top Recipients of IBRA and IDA Development Policy Lending, 2013 Development Policy Operations: IBRD Country Number Value (million USD) Brazil 5 1,650 Poland 1 1,308 Turkey 1 800 Colombia 3 600 Morocco 4 593 Development Policy Operations: IDA Country Number Value (million USD) Myanmar 1 440 Vietnam 3 370 Tanzania 2 175 Rwanda 2 100 Nigeria 1 100 Mozambique 2 100 Malawi 2 100 In January 2012, IBRD and IDA announced a new results-based lending instrument, called Program-for-Results (P4R). The Bank provides funds to governments for programs that support government projects, but the disbursement of funds is linked to the achievement of measureable and verifiable development results. The Bank hopes P4R will help build capacity of partner countries, engender institutional change, reduce fraud and corruption, and enhance overall development effectiveness. Table 7 shows P4R commitments over time, including forecasted commitments for 2014. Table 7: Program for Results Lending (million USD) Organization 2012 2013 2014 IBRD 300 66 990 IDA 60 710 1,350 Total 630 776 2,350 In response to civil society concerns, the Bank agreed to a two-year pilot program for P4R, capping disbursements at 5% of total lending and prohibiting the use of P4R for Category A projects (those with the highest social and environmental risk). P4R programs do no not require the application of Bank safeguards; instead, they rely on borrowers’ social and environmental management systems to manage risks. While the Bank makes information about each program publically available, each borrower decides what information about particular program activities will be publically available.
  • 13. 13 The Bank is currently undertaking a review of the eight approved P4R projects and the 16 under preparation, with a draft expected by the end of the fiscal year. But experience with P4R has been very limited. As of October 2013, only $19 million had been disbursed against achieved results (World Bank 2013). The Bank hopes P4R will be part of a broader effort to move from ‘compliance’ to ‘results’ and to improve country ownership. It has already proved popular with countries for reducing transaction costs and promoting greater country ownership. Many important questions about P4R remain. It is not yet clear how well results can be measured and verified. The program’s transparency, supervision, and accountability have also been questioned. The Bank’s suite of safeguard systems do not apply to the program, and the operational policy governing P4R does not clearly specify how alternatives at the country level will be applied. Nevertheless, some analysts have suggested P4R could eventually account for 15% to 33% of total lending (BIC 2012). C. Beneficiaries of Lending Figure 3 shows the distribution of Bank lending by region. With the exception of smaller flows to the Middle East and North Africa, bank lending is more or less evenly distributed. Africa, however, receives almost no money from IBRD, while Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean receive very little money from IDA. Figure 4 shows the distribution of Bank projects by region. The picture that emerges is similar, but shows that IDA tends to have more projects with smaller amounts of money. Figure 3: World Bank Commitments by Geographic Region, 2013 $42 $4,591 $3,661 $4,769 $1,809 $378 $8,203 $729 $2,586 $435 $249 $4,096 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 Africa East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Carribbean Middle East South Asia MillionsofUSD IBRD IDA $8,245 $5,320 $6,247 $5,204 $2,058 $4,474
  • 14. 14 Figure 4: World Bank Operations by Geographic Region, 2013 Table 8 shows the top 10 recipients of cumulative IBRD, IDA, and total World Bank lending between 1945 and 2013. Both IBRD and IDA lending has tended to be heavily concentrated in a handful of countries; funding for the 10 largest lending recipients accounts for more than 50% of total cumulative funding. Table 8: Cumulative Lending, 1945-2013 (millions of USD) IBRD IDA World Bank (IBRD+IDA) Brazil 56,268 India 44,474 India 93,137 Mexico 52,859 Bangladesh 19,656 Brazil 56,268 India 48,663 Pakistan 15,845 Mexico 52,859 Indonesia 45,423 Vietnam 15,122 China 52,392 China 42,445 Ethiopia 11,499 Indonesia 48,299 Turkey 36,277 China 9,947 Turkey 36,455 Argentina 29,277 Tanzania 9,633 Argentina 29,227 Colombia 19,449 Nigeria 9,573 Pakistan 24,207 South Korea 15,472 Ghana 7,611 Bangladesh 19,702 Philippines 15,102 Kenya 7,341 Colombia 19,469 subtotal 361,235 subtotal 150,701 subtotal 432,015 cumulative lending 586,201 cumulative lending 268,500 cumulative lending 854,701 % of total 61.6 % of total 56.1 % of total 50.5 Source: IBRD (2013) 4 25 24 28 9 2 91 22 18 13 7 33 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Africa East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Carribbean Middle East South Asia NumberofOperations IBRD IDA 47 42 41 16 35 95
  • 15. 15 Table 9 shows the top 10 recipients of IBRD and IDA lending in FY2013. A few differences between table 4 and table 5 are suggestive of broader changes in the recipients of World Bank financing. Korea, for example, no longer takes new IBRD funding. IBRD has stepped up funding for eastern European and central Asian countries like Romania, Poland, and Kazakhstan. In the IDA column, Kenya and Mozambique, two high growth emerging markets in sub-Saharan Africa, replace China (no longer using IDA financing) and Ghana. Much has been made about the future of the World Bank’s relationship with middle income countries, and this is going to be a key question for the Bank to address going forward. President Jim Yong Kim has expressed strong support for a continued engagement with middle-income borrowers. Table 10 shows the top IBRD borrowers by share of loans outstanding over the last four years. Seven of the top borrowers this year would have made the same list a decade ago. This table is included to show that the change in composition of principal borrowers is a very slow process. Table 9: Top 10 new IBRD and IDA commitments 2013 (USD millions) IBRD Amount IDA Amount Brazil 3,076 Vietnam 1,982 Indonesia 1,721 Bangladesh 1,567 China 1,540 Ethiopia 1,115 Poland 1,308 India 948 Turkey 1,301 Pakistan 744 Colombia 600 Kenya 615 Morocco 593 Tanzania 606 Djibouti 585 D.R. Congo 532 Yemen 500 Myanmar 520 Uruguay 408 Mozambique 337 Source: IBRD (2013); IDA (2013) Table 10: Top IBRD Borrowers by Share of Loans Outstanding 2013 2012 2011 2010 Country $ bn % Country $ bn % Country $ bn % Country $ bn % Mexico 14.9 10.5 Mexico 13.6 10.1 China 13 9.8 China 12.9 10.7 Turkey 12.9 9.1 China 13.1 9.8 Turkey 12.9 9.8 Brazil 11.3 9.4 China 12.9 9.1 Turkey 12.7 9.5 Mexico 12.2 9.2 India 10.8 9 Indonesia 12.4 8.7 India 11.7 8.7 India 11.4 8.6 Mexico 10.5 8.7 India 11.9 8.4 Brazil 10.1 7.5 Brazil 10.4 7.9 Turkey 10.2 8.5 Brazil 11.6 8.2 Indonesia 9.9 7.4 Indonesia 8.9 6.8 Indonesia 7.6 6.3 Columbia 7.8 5.5 Columbia 7.5 5.6 Colombia 7.5 5.6 Colombia 7.2 6 Poland 6.7 4.7 Poland 5.6 4.2 Poland 5.6 4.2 Argentina 5.3 4.4 Source: IBRD (2013); Moody’s (2012)
  • 16. 16 WORLD BANK SOURCES OF FUNDING The World Bank’s lending, investments, and general operations are funded by equity (paid-in capital and retained earnings) and borrowing (debt issuance). Equity Each World Bank Group institution is owned by member countries—its shareholders. Ownership and therefore voting rights are proportional to each shareholder’s capital contributions. Table 11 and Table 12 show the top 15 shareholders of the IBRD and the IDA, respectively. The World Bank is governed by a Board of Governors (one from each country) and a Board of 25 Executive Directors. By convention, the Executive Directors of IBRD, IDA, IFC, and MIGA are the same. This means that although the top shareholders for each institution may vary, relative voting power based on IBRD contributions tends to determine influence across the World Bank Group. Table 11: Top 15 Subscriptions to IBRD Capital Stock as of June 30, 2013 # Member Total Subscription Amount (million USD) Paid In (million USD) Callable (million USD) % of Votes 1 United States 35,814 2,229 33,585 15.19 2 Japan 19,958 1,222 18,736 8.48 3 China 12,859 775 12,084 5.47 4 Germany 10,522 652 9,900 4.50 5 France 9,409 853 8,826 4.01 6 United Kingdom 9,409 602 8,807 4.01 7 Canada 7,040 433 6,607 3.01 8 India 6,845 413 6,432 2.93 9 Italy 5,663 351 5,312 2.43 10 Russia 5,529 334 5,195 2.37 11 Saudi Arabia 5,529 335 5,194 2.37 12 Netherlands 4,781 295 4,486 2.05 13 Brazil 4,104 246 3,859 1.77 14 Belgium 3,910 240 3,670 1.68 15 Spain 3,809 233 3,576 1.64 Source: IBRD (2013)
  • 17. 17 Table 12: Top 15 IDA Subscriptions and Contributions as of June 30, 2013 # Member Total Subscription Amount (million USD) 1 United States 46,543 2 Japan 40,890 3 United Kingdom 24,976 4 Germany 24,068 5 France 15,899 6 Canada 10,228 7 Italy 9,552 8 Netherlands 8,201 9 Sweden 7,460 10 Australia 4,077 11 Belgium 4,051 12 Switzerland 3,954 13 Norway 3,642 14 Denmark 3,387 15 Spain 3,161 Source: IDA (2012) IBRD members purchase shares of the bank, but pay in only 6% of the cost of shares purchased. The rest of the capital remains “on call.” If the IBRD suffers large losses—for example, if several large borrowers defaulted on their loans at the same time—the Bank could collect “on call” capital from its shareholders in order to pay its creditors, although the Bank has never needed to make a call on capital. In April 2010, World Bank members agreed to the first capital increase 1988 (Beattie 2010). Members authorized a General Capital Increase of $58.4 billion ($3.5 billion paid in) and a Selective Capital Increase of $27.8 billion ($1.6 billion paid in). This will increase the Bank’s authorized capital to $278.4 billion and increase the Bank’s $11 billion of paid-in capital by $5.1 billion. Members also agreed to reforms that will increase the voting power of developing countries, from 44.06% to 47.19%. As part of the deal, China has become the third-largest shareholder, after the United States and Japan. The complements prior reforms enacted in 2008, when the voting power of developing countries was increased by 1.46% and an additional 25th seat on the Board of Executive Directors was added for sub-Saharan Africa, bringing the region’s total number of seats to three. It is highly unlikely that the Bank will receive another capital infusion in the near future. President Kim recently told reporters that he sees “no appetite” for another capital increase. “It’s a tough environment,” he said. “I think it’s not the time for us to have a serious discussion about a capital increase” (Rastello 2012).
  • 18. 18 IDA raises funds through “replenishments” that occur every three years. The level of funding it receives depends on how much its donors commit. The sixteenth IDA replenishment, finalized in December 2010, netted SDR 32.8 billion ($49.3 billion) for FY2012-2014. The seventeenth IDA replenishment, recently completed, brought in $52 billion. (SDR, or special drawing rights, are a kind of foreign exchange asset created by the IMF; at current rates, 1SDR = $1.53; see IMF 2012.) This amount includes transfers from the IBRD and IFC of $3 billion. Table 13 provides the history of IDA replenishments. Table 13: IDA Replenishments Replenishment Period Amount (million SDR) Initial 1961-1964 763 IDA1 1965-1968 924 IDA2 1969-1971 1,428 IDA3 1972-1974 2,738 IDA4 1975-1977 4,218 IDA5 1978-1980 6,193 IDA6 1981-1984 9,549 FY84 Account 1984 1318 Special Account 1984 519 IDA7 1985-1987 8,997 Special Facility for Africa 1986-1988 921 IDA8 1988-1990 1,677 IDA9 1991-1993 14,049 IDA10 1994-1996 16,274 Interim Trust Fund 1997 2228 IDA11 1997-1999 12,395 IDA12 2000-2002 15,312 IDA13 2003-2005 17,833 IDA14 2006-2008 22693 Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative 2007-2044 22,737 IDA15 2009-2011 27,300 IDA16 2012-2014 32,800 IDA 17 2015-2018 36,550 Source: IDA (2012); Marshall (2008) Both IBRD and IFC make transfers to IDA on a yearly basis. Over the IDA 17 period, about $3 billion will be transferred from IBRD and IFC, an amount that is equal in real terms to transfers in the prior period. As IBRD profitability declines (see “Operating Income” below), its ability to fund IDA will be constricted. Some of the shortfall could be offset by rising IFC transfers to IDA, but any significant increase in IDA funding will require increasing donor contributions.
  • 19. 19 Borrowing The World Bank raises the majority of its capital by issuing debt to both institutional and retail investors. Since 1947, the Bank has issued bonds in 54 different currencies, and in FY2012 it issued bonds in 23 currencies. Funding levels depend on lending activity as well as broader macroeconomic conditions. Bond maturities generally range from 2 to 10 years, and the issue size is typically USD$1-3 billion. Moody’s rates the World Bank Aaa, the highest possible rating. It cites the Bank’s strong capital base, status as a preferred creditor, and sound financial management. Operating Income The World Bank’s operating income depends primarily on the margin it makes on the loans it issues (net of funding costs), the return on its investments, and its noninterest expenses, of which the largest is staff costs. Operating income has been positive every year since Moody’s began evaluating the Bank, and it has averaged around $1.1 billion over the past five years. Operating income was $876 million in 2013. Figure 5 shows the Bank’s real loan income has declined over the past decade. Figure 6 shows that this has translated into a decline in real operating income. As Moody’s notes, “IBRD’s profitability is low relative to historical averages, but for a development-mandated institution Moody’s primary consideration of profitability is not the magnitude, but that it does not contribute to the erosion of the capital base” (Moody’s 2012). Declining operating income is largely a function of declining real lending. Figure 5: IBRD Loan Income (millions of 2013 USD) Note: Amounts adjusted to 2013 USD using the US CPI-All Urban Consumers index (base 1982-1984) Source: IBRD (2013) $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 Millionsof2013USD
  • 20. 20 Figure 6: IBRD Operating Income (millions of 2013 USD) Note: Amounts adjusted to 2013USD using the US CPI-All Urban Consumers index (base 1982-1984) Source: IBRD (2013) In order to avoid further decreases in operating income given current constraints on lending, the Bank could increase its loan price (not likely given competition from other lending sources), reduce transfers (especially to IDA), reduce overheads (including staffing costs and other administrative expenses), or increase lending volume. INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATON The International Finance Corporation focuses on private sector investment in emerging markets. Its three main lines of business include investment services, advisory services, and asset management. Table 14 shows nominal IFC investments by type over the last five years. In FY2013, IFC committed $18.3 billion of its own funds in loans and equity investments, an increase of nearly 75% in nominal terms since 2009. President Kim announced recently that IFC lending could double over the next 10 years (World Bank 2014). IFC commitments include both loans (typically with maturities of 7 to 12 years) and equity investments (typically a 5% to 20% stake). IFC also offers guarantees and other forms of structured finance (IFC 2013). IFC also tracks “core mobilization,” financing from other sources (not IFC money) that becomes available to IFC clients as a result of IFC’s involvement in a project. This includes a variety of financial tools, such as parallel loans (arranged by IFC for a fee, but where IFC is not the lender) and loan participation (IFC acts as the lender of record and administers the entire loan, but the loan includes funding from non-IFC sources). Core mobilization was $6.5 billion in 2013, a nearly 65% increase in nominal terms over the past five years $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 Millionsof2013USD
  • 21. 21 Table 13: IFC investments and mobilization by type (millions of USD) Type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 IFC Commitments 10,547 12,664 12,186 15,462 18,349 Loans 5,959 5720 4,991 6,668 8,502 Equity 2,069 2974 1,968 2,282 2,732 Guarantees/other 2,519 3969 5,227 6,512 7,079 Core Mobilization 3,964 5378 6,474 4,896 6,504 Loan Mobilization 2,401 3,157 4,718 3,505 3,578 AMC 8 236 454 437 768 Other Initiatives 1,555 1,985 1,302 954 2,158 Total 14,511 18,042 18,660 20,358 24,853 Source: IFC (2013) IFC’s Asset Management Company (AMC) mobilizes and manages third-party capital from institutional investors, like sovereign finds and pension funds. AMC manages seven funds, with $5.5 billion under management. These are (1) the Equity Capitalization Fund and (2) the Sub-Debt Capitalization Fund, which both strengthen banks, (3) the ALAC Fund, investing in a range of sectors across Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, (4) the African Capitalization Fund, investing in commercial banks, (5) the Russian Bank Capitalization Fund, investing in commercial banks, (6) the Catalyst Funds, investing in emerging market private equity funds focused on climate change and resource efficiency, and (7) the Global Infrastructure Fund, making debt and equity investments in emerging market infrastructure. IFC lending has rapidly increased as a proportion of total World Bank Group lending over the past decade, indicating a strong belief in the importance of private sector investment for international development. Figure 7 demonstrates this. In 2000, IFC commitments accounted for less than 13% of total World Bank Group commitments. This rose to 30% over the next eight years. While IFC lending continued to increase through the global financial crisis, it did not do so at the same rate as IBRD lending, so the share of IFC commitments relative to World Bank Group commitments dropped. But over the last three years, IFC lending has continued to rise as IBRD lending has fallen, and IFC now accounts for nearly 35% of total World Bank Group commitments. If MIGA is included in this calculation, around 40% of World Bank Group investments now support private sector ventures. A significant portion of IFC’s investments support financial intermediaries (third party financial institutions like banks or private equity funds, and the percentage of IFC’s total investment going into financial intermediaries is also increasing. In 2013, more than 60% of IFC’s commitments supported financial intermediaries. Analysis by the Bretton Woods Project (2014) shows that $36 billion has been invested by the IFC in financial intermediaries since 2009.
  • 22. 22 Figure 7: IFC commitments as percentage of total World Bank Group commitments Source: IFC (2013) MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY The goal of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) is to stimulate foreign direct investment into developing countries. It does this providing political risk insurance (guarantees) to protect against expropriation, breach of contract, non-honoring of financial obligations, currency inconvertibility, terrorism and civil disturbance, and other non- commercial risks. In 2013, MIGA issued $2.8 billion in guarantees, with an additional $3.5 million issued under MIGA-administered trust funds (MIGA 2013). This is double (in nominal terms) the $1.4 billion in guarantees issued five years ago, in 2009. Over the past five years, MIGA has supported about 27 new projects and 33 total projects per year, and it supported 30 total projects and 26 new projects in 2013. By financing volume, nearly three quarters of MIGA guarantees issues in 2013 supported IDA-eligible counties, including more than 40% to conflict-affected states. Nearly 55% supported projects in Sub- Saharan Africa. Recently, MIGA support has shifted to infrastructure (46% of new volume in 2013) and oil and gas (23% of new volume), moving away from the financial sector (17% of volume in 2013 versus 89% following the 2008 financial crisis). MIGA’s strategy for 2014-2017 calls for work on infrastructure, power generation, transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and finance. MIGA will work to expand its product line and reach a broader client base. It will continue to prioritize work in IDA-eligible countries and fragile and conflict-affected states. 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 PercentoftotalWBGlending
  • 23. 23 TRUST FUNDS Trusts funds were initially designed to give bilateral donors a mechanism for co-financing specific projects. For example, the first World Bank trust fund, established in 1960, allowed co- financing of the Indus Basin Project in Pakistan. In the 1990s, the trust fund model expanded as the Bank took on new roles, particularly in the environmental arena. But truly explosive growth in trust funds has happened only over the last half decade. Since 2007 alone, the total value of World Bank Group trust funds has increased almost 73%, growing from $17.3 billion to $29.2 billion (World Bank 2012c). Trust funds are especially important part of the Bank’s strategy for addressing global public goods issues, like immunization or climate change, that are not easily addressed through the Bank’s traditional lending instruments. The increasing importance of trust funds at the World Bank mirrors broader changes in global aid design, particularly the rise of so-called “multi-bilateral aid”—bilateral funding earmarked for a particular purpose that is funneled through multilateral agencies. Multi-bi aid increased from $9 billion in 2007 to $16.7 billion in 2010, and it now accounts for around 12% of gross ODA (excluding debt relief). Multi-donor trust funds constitute about 50% of all Bank trust funds, compared to 30% just five years ago. About a quarter of all multi-bi aid flows through the World Bank. Table 15 provides a snapshot of the World Bank Group’s three major types of trust funds categories: IBRD/IDA trust finds, financial intermediary funds (FIFs), and the IFC trust funds. Table 16 shows how the World Bank Group’s trust funds changed between 2008 and 2012, in absolute terms and as a percentage change from 2008. Table 15: Overview of World Bank Group Trust Funds, 2012 Source: World Bank (2012c) Table 16: Change in World Bank Group Trust Funds, 2012 v. 2008 Number Funds Held (USD billions) FY12 Contributions (USD billions) FY12 Disbursements (USD billions) IBRD/IDA TFs -37 (-4.8%) +1.0 (+11.5%) +0.4 (+10.0%) +1 (+30.3%) FIFs +5 (+10.2%) +7.2 (+67.9%) +2.7 (+60%) +2 (+62.5%) IFC TFs +47 (+22.0%) +0.5 (+100%) +0.1 (+50%) +0.1 (+50%) TOTAL +45 (+4.4%) +8.5 (+41%) 3.2 (+36.2%) +3 (+44.7%) Source: World Bank (2012c) Number Funds Held (USD billions) 2012 Contributions (USD billions) 2012 Disbursements (USD billions) IBRD/IDA TFs 720 9.7 4.4 4.3 FIFs 54 17.8 7.2 5.2 IFC TFs 290 1 0.3 0.3 TOTAL 1064 29.2 11.9 9.7
  • 24. 24 A. IBRD/IDA Trust Funds IBRD/IDA trust funds account for 33% of World Bank Group trust funds by value. Since 2008, funds held in trust in IBRD/IDA trust funds have increased from $8.7 billion to $9.7 billion, cash contributions have increased from $4.0 billion to $4.4 billion, and disbursements have increased from $3.3 billion to $4.3 billion (World Bank 2012c; IEG 2011). Ongoing efforts to consolidate trust funds caused the overall number of IBR/IDA trust funds to decline to 720 in 2012, down from a peak of 780 in 2010. While 84 new trust funds were established, 122 existing funds were closed (World Bank 2012c). The IBRD and IDA use two types of trust funds: Bank-Executed Trust Funds (BETFs) and Recipient-Executed Trust Funds (RETFs). BETF disbursements directly support Bank programs, typically in ‘knowledge activities’ like non-lending technical assistance. A significant portion of BETF disbursements are used to support Bank supervision of RETF-funded projects. BETF expenditures reached $646 million in 2012, equal to 23% of total World Bank administrative expenditures. Funds in RETFs, on the other hand, are passed on to third parties for development activities that are usually monitored and evaluated by the Bank. RETF disbursements reached $3.6 billion in 2012, up 13% from the year before. They accounted for 10% of the World Bank’s total project financing (a 9% increase from 2011). Two thirds of RETF disbursements support activities in IDA countries. B. FIFs The World Bank’s role in financial intermediary funds is as a trustee: it receives, holds, invests, and transfers funds, often to multiple implementing agencies. As a trustee, the World Bank does not supervise the use of funds, but it may serve as a partner in implementation. The Bank may also provide additional administrative or financial services or serve as the Secretariat. FIFs typically support global programs, on topics like health (51% of FIFs) and the environment and climate change (32% of FIFs) (World Bank 2011c). FIFs account for 61% of World Bank Group trust funds by value, and they are also the major source of trust fund growth at the Bank. Over the past six years, funds held in trust in FIFs have more than doubled, from $8.9 billion in 2007 to $17.8 billion in 2012. Cash contributions from donors have also more than doubled over the same period, and transfers to implementing agencies and beneficiaries have increased by more than 50%. Some 96% of contributions are from governments. The United States is the largest donor, with cumulative contributions of $6.4 billion over the last five years. Other big contributors are the UK ($3.2 billion), France ($2.9 billion), and Japan ($2.3 billion). As table 17 illustrates, the four largest FIFs hold 86% of all FIF funds. Still, three new FIFs were established in 2012: the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean Financial Intermediary Trust Fund
  • 25. 25 (EBSM), the Global Partnership for Education Fund (GPEF), and the Green Climate Fund Trust Fund. Table 17: The Four Largest FIFs Fund Established Cumulative Funding (USD billions) Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) 2002 22.5 Global Environment Facility (GEF) 1991 11.3 Debt Relief Trust Fund (DRTF) 1996 7.7 Climate Investment Funds (CIF) 2008 5.2 Other --- 7.4 Total --- 54.1 Source: World Bank (2012c); World Bank (2011c) C. IFC TFs IFC trust funds account for only about 1% of the total value of the World Bank Group’s trust funds, but they are important because they support 80% of IFC’s advisory services. IFC offers these services to businesses and governments in four categories: access to finance, investment climate, public-private partnerships, and sustainable business. The number of IFC trust funds increased from 213 in 2008 to 290 in 2012, and the total value of IFC trust funds doubled over that same period, from $0.5 billion to $1 billion. Disbursements peaked at $1 billion in 2010, but are typically around $0.3 billion per year (World Bank 2012c). Over the past five years, the United Kingdom has been the largest donor to IFC trust funds, providing 25% of all contributions. The MasterCard Foundation was the 4th largest donor in 2012, providing $37.5 million for the Partnership for Financial Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa. D. Trust Fund Reform From the perspectives of the World Bank, development donors, and development recipients, trust funds have both advantages and disadvantages (see World Bank 2012c; World Bank 2011c; IEG 2011). Advantages: Trust funds…  Help fill gaps in existing development efforts by, for example, providing funds to post- disaster or post-conflict countries that are ineligible for IBRD/IDA support or by catalyzing investment in global public goods like climate change mitigation  Promote the coordination/harmonization of bilateral aid efforts and support the formation of new development partnerships  Secure broader support for and complement existing Bank work
  • 26. 26  Allow doors to use the broader capacities of multilateral institutions  Reduce transaction and administrative costs and provide economies of scale Disadvantages: Trust funds…  Are often not well-integrated into other Bank efforts and activities or into existing country programs  Often do not allow recipient countries to participate in their design and use, particularly for global funds  Reduce the visibility of individual donors and therefore the credit they receive  Reallocate existing ODA but do not increase it  Reduce transparency, especially because data is difficult to compile and sources conflict  Are not (or are not as easily) subjected to World Bank safeguards In 2010, the Independent Evaluation Group undertook an evaluation of the World Bank’s trust fund portfolio and proposed a variety of changes, some of which are now being implemented (IEG 2011). For example, the World Bank is creating Umbrella Facilities in an effort to better align the interests of trust fund donors with existing Bank priorities. Only a few such facilities have been established so far. STAFFING By the time of the first annual World Bank meeting in Savannah, Georgia in 1946, the World Bank had 38 member countries and 72 staff members (Phillips 2009). By the 1960s, as Bank lending began to pick up, so did the growth in the size of its staff. Between 1960 and 1970, the number of professional staff more than tripled over the decade, growing from 283 to 917 (Mallaby 2004). Staff growth continued in the 1970s as President Robert MacNamara added new departments and responsibilities: the Rural Development Department in 1973, the Urban Population Department in 1975, and the Population, Health, and Nutrition Department in 1979. Jim Wolfensohn also oversaw growth in the Bank’s staff as it expanded to new areas, especially the environment (in 1985 the Bank had only five environmental staff). Wolfensohn also oversaw a push to move staff out of the Washington, D.C. headquarters and into the field. In 1995, for example, none of the Bank’s country directors were based outside of Washington. By 2003, 71% of them were. Today, the World Bank employs some 10,000 people, around 40% of whom work in field offices in 110+ countries. The Bank does not publish detailed data on its staff, but it is possible to make some observations based on its financial statements. Staff costs are lower now than they were in the 1990s, but the Bank is increasingly reliant on outside consultants for its work. The average staff cost over the last four years has been $490 million per year. In the first four years of the 1990s, by comparison, the average staff cost was more than $660 million per year (or more than $1100 million per year in real terms). Consulting costs in the early 1990s, though, averaged $84
  • 27. 27 million per year (or $130 million per year in real terms). In 2012, the Bank spent more than $250 million on consultants. Of course, it is not clear from existing data to what extent changes in staff costs correlate with the number of staff or reflect instead cuts to salaries and benefits. It is also not clear how changes in staff costs have impacted staff quality. An ongoing reorganization and restructuring process is leading to the creation of 14 global practices, working on areas like agriculture, environment and natural resources, and governance. These global practices replace the previous “sector” structure and are designed to reduce silos that prevented collaboration and exchange of knowledge and learning across regions and World Bank group institutions. The Bank will also have “cross cutting solution areas: climate change, gender, jobs, public private partnerships, and fragility, conflict, and violence (Harding 2014; FT 2014). The reorganization has also brought the departure of several senior Bank managers. A recent staff survey illustrates the Bank staff feel uncertainty about the direction in which the Bank is headed (Gillison 2014). Among the findings are that 60% of staff think the Bank places more emphasis on the “number and volume of transactions” than on development. Some 58% do not understand the direction chosen senior management, and 68% do not think senior management acts as a unified team. Less than 40% of Bank staff thinks that they are rewarded according to their job performance. It remains to be seen whether President Kim can successfully shepherd the World Bank through this reorganization process and what sort of institution will emerge when this is completed.
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