Solar Power Economic Context, 2009-2010 The Credit Crunch and Solar Projects  Prepared and presented by Richard D. Hastings, CCE Consumer Strategist, Global Hunter Securities, LLC rhastings@ghsecurities.com  1.949.335.0686 Image source: Wikipedia, copyright free. The Pantheon, Rome, Italy August 2009 – Credit Management Association
Disclaimers This is not a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. Any price, opinions and other information in this report is subject to change without notice.   This material has been prepared by Global Hunter Securities, LLC ("Global Hunter") a registered broker-dealer, employing appropriate expertise, and in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. Information, opinions or recommendations contained in the reports and updates are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore except for any obligations under law, we do not guarantee its accuracy. Additional and supporting information is available upon request. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or investment. Any opinion or estimates constitute our best judgment as of this date, and is subject to change without notice. Global Hunter and our affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees may buy or sell securities mentioned herein as agent or principal for their own account. Not all products and services are available outside of the US or in all US states. Copyright 2008 Global Hunter Securities, LLC.
Hot Solar Trends – August 2009 Tax credits are great for profitable companies.  The extension of production tax credits in the Feb. 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act may reduce taxable income.  What happens to taxes when there’s not much income?   New entries need new financing, and that’s not easy.  The tax credits are easy to obtain for existing solar energy projects. Finding capital for new companies and new power agreements still remains difficult, in our view.  Innovation or installation?  Installation costs per unit of output remains more attractive to investors and program participants, as big projects drive down unit costs.  Funding from grants and credits could be insufficient to drive the big increase in solar installations that some observers expected, in our view. State funding could deteriorate.  Many states are experiencing substantial declines in tax receipts against insufficient reserves. The municipal bond market is weakening, thus making it tougher for states to finance various projects and/or tax incentives.
Power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and the subsidy money.  Recent trends in solar energy deals point to increased popularity of PPA’s in which the primary party uses some of that “credit” to help pay installers and project financiers in order to purchase the power only.  Tax credit program renewed in October 2008.  The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 contained an 8-year extension of the tax credit and other provisions of various renewable energy programs.   Long-term subsidies will very likely drive long-term growth.  It has been proven that the prior long-term tax credit program stimulated growth. The 8-year extension should prove highly effective again.  $117.6 million in new funding . President Obama carved out $467 million from the Feb’09 Stimulus to stimulate geothermal and solar. Solar gets $117.6 million of that amount.  $117.6 mln is not, in our view, an impressive amount.   Hot Solar Trends – August 2009
Construction, Commercial Space and Recent Trends in Solar Energy Output
Total Renewable Energy Consumption, 1973-2009
Infrastructure – New Power Construction, 2002-2009
Large-scale PV Plants, By Country, By Year Source: www.PVresearces.com.  (PVresources considers these to be conservative estimates)
Residential Solar/PV Consumption, 1990-2009
Wind Energy and Electricity: 2000-2009
Electric Power Use of Solar Energy, 2002-2009
Solar Thermal: The European Market Source: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation. www.estif.org
Solar Thermal: Germany and Spain Source: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation. www.estif.org
Credit Market Trends: Loan Activity and Delinquencies
Loan Delinquencies, All Loans, 1987-2009
Lease and A/R Loans, Delinquencies: 1987-2009
Lease and A/R Loans, Delinquencies: 1987-2009
Loan Conditions Remain Difficult
But Bond Yields Are Improving, Quickly
Fiscal Trends: State and National Taxes, and the Residential Situation
State Tax Receipts Hit By Consumer Cutback
Why Taxes Will (Eventually) Go Up Source: Associated Press
Federal Spending and Federal Tax Credits:  What? Source: The Heritage Foundation.  www.heritage.org ;
Residential Sector Weakness: Foreclosures Q2
No Equity? What About Credit?
Reference: The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and Renewal of Solar Investment Tax Credits
2008 Investment Tax Credit Renewal: Key Items October 3, 2008, signed into law, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA). EESA contained a renewal of the business and residential tax credit, for a period to expire Dec. 31, 2016.  There are direct and indirect benefits to the Solar industry. There is a business component and there is a residential component.  Business component. IRS rules provided in IR Code, Section 48, Energy Credit.  Residential component. IRS rules provides in IR Code, Section 25D, Residential Energy Efficient Property. Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREB’s). The Act provides authorizes $800 million issuance of bonds to create capital for renewable energy investments. Eligible issuers: State and local governments Public power and electronic cooperatives CREB program expiration, Dec. 31, 2009
ITC Program Expanded Tax credit rate remains 30 percent, but the applicability is greatly expanded.  Investment cap removed, effective Dec. 31, 2008. Previously was $2,000. New method is based upon qualified solar panel property expenditures.  Alternative Minimum Tax (ATM) filers now permitted to take advantage of the credit.  Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) estimates that the following states will benefit the most from the ITC and overall industry activity: CA, FL, AZ, CO, NV, NJ, MA, NY, OR, and WA SEIA expects benefits to support PA, MI, OH and the Great Lakes region.  A tax deduction rate of $1.80 per square foot of commercial building space is provided for energy efficiency installations.  The qualifying rate is described as a 50 percent or greater increase in efficiency (reduction in cost) over traditional energy systems.
Costs of Certain Program Components Source: Solar Energy Industries Association Program Estimated Cost Extension of Tax Credits $1.942 billion over 10 years Residential Energy-Efficient Property Credit $1.294 billion over 10 years Clean Renewable Energy Bonds $267 million over 10 years All clean energy programs, including solar, wind, and waves and tides among others $5.817 billion over 10 years Tax credits for AMT filers $61.87 billion over 10 years R & D credits $19.084 billion over 10 years
About Global Hunter Securities, LLC Global Hunter Securities, LLC is an international investment banking and institutional services firm.  Global Hunter Securities, LLC has offices in Newport Beach, California; Houston, Texas; and New Orleans, Louisiana. The Company’s focus is on providing products and services to small and micro cap corporate and institutional clients. Strong presence and reputation in China. Seasoned professionals with market savvy and passion who maintain the highest standards of integrity and work ethic. Visit us at  www.ghsecurities.com

Solar Power

  • 1.
    Solar Power EconomicContext, 2009-2010 The Credit Crunch and Solar Projects Prepared and presented by Richard D. Hastings, CCE Consumer Strategist, Global Hunter Securities, LLC rhastings@ghsecurities.com 1.949.335.0686 Image source: Wikipedia, copyright free. The Pantheon, Rome, Italy August 2009 – Credit Management Association
  • 2.
    Disclaimers This isnot a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. Any price, opinions and other information in this report is subject to change without notice.   This material has been prepared by Global Hunter Securities, LLC ("Global Hunter") a registered broker-dealer, employing appropriate expertise, and in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. Information, opinions or recommendations contained in the reports and updates are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Therefore except for any obligations under law, we do not guarantee its accuracy. Additional and supporting information is available upon request. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or investment. Any opinion or estimates constitute our best judgment as of this date, and is subject to change without notice. Global Hunter and our affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees may buy or sell securities mentioned herein as agent or principal for their own account. Not all products and services are available outside of the US or in all US states. Copyright 2008 Global Hunter Securities, LLC.
  • 3.
    Hot Solar Trends– August 2009 Tax credits are great for profitable companies. The extension of production tax credits in the Feb. 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act may reduce taxable income. What happens to taxes when there’s not much income? New entries need new financing, and that’s not easy. The tax credits are easy to obtain for existing solar energy projects. Finding capital for new companies and new power agreements still remains difficult, in our view. Innovation or installation? Installation costs per unit of output remains more attractive to investors and program participants, as big projects drive down unit costs. Funding from grants and credits could be insufficient to drive the big increase in solar installations that some observers expected, in our view. State funding could deteriorate. Many states are experiencing substantial declines in tax receipts against insufficient reserves. The municipal bond market is weakening, thus making it tougher for states to finance various projects and/or tax incentives.
  • 4.
    Power purchase agreements(PPA’s) and the subsidy money. Recent trends in solar energy deals point to increased popularity of PPA’s in which the primary party uses some of that “credit” to help pay installers and project financiers in order to purchase the power only. Tax credit program renewed in October 2008. The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 contained an 8-year extension of the tax credit and other provisions of various renewable energy programs. Long-term subsidies will very likely drive long-term growth. It has been proven that the prior long-term tax credit program stimulated growth. The 8-year extension should prove highly effective again. $117.6 million in new funding . President Obama carved out $467 million from the Feb’09 Stimulus to stimulate geothermal and solar. Solar gets $117.6 million of that amount. $117.6 mln is not, in our view, an impressive amount. Hot Solar Trends – August 2009
  • 5.
    Construction, Commercial Spaceand Recent Trends in Solar Energy Output
  • 6.
    Total Renewable EnergyConsumption, 1973-2009
  • 7.
    Infrastructure – NewPower Construction, 2002-2009
  • 8.
    Large-scale PV Plants,By Country, By Year Source: www.PVresearces.com. (PVresources considers these to be conservative estimates)
  • 9.
  • 10.
    Wind Energy andElectricity: 2000-2009
  • 11.
    Electric Power Useof Solar Energy, 2002-2009
  • 12.
    Solar Thermal: TheEuropean Market Source: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation. www.estif.org
  • 13.
    Solar Thermal: Germanyand Spain Source: European Solar Thermal Industry Federation. www.estif.org
  • 14.
    Credit Market Trends:Loan Activity and Delinquencies
  • 15.
    Loan Delinquencies, AllLoans, 1987-2009
  • 16.
    Lease and A/RLoans, Delinquencies: 1987-2009
  • 17.
    Lease and A/RLoans, Delinquencies: 1987-2009
  • 18.
  • 19.
    But Bond YieldsAre Improving, Quickly
  • 20.
    Fiscal Trends: Stateand National Taxes, and the Residential Situation
  • 21.
    State Tax ReceiptsHit By Consumer Cutback
  • 22.
    Why Taxes Will(Eventually) Go Up Source: Associated Press
  • 23.
    Federal Spending andFederal Tax Credits: What? Source: The Heritage Foundation. www.heritage.org ;
  • 24.
  • 25.
    No Equity? WhatAbout Credit?
  • 26.
    Reference: The EmergencyEconomic Stabilization Act of 2008 and Renewal of Solar Investment Tax Credits
  • 27.
    2008 Investment TaxCredit Renewal: Key Items October 3, 2008, signed into law, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA). EESA contained a renewal of the business and residential tax credit, for a period to expire Dec. 31, 2016. There are direct and indirect benefits to the Solar industry. There is a business component and there is a residential component. Business component. IRS rules provided in IR Code, Section 48, Energy Credit. Residential component. IRS rules provides in IR Code, Section 25D, Residential Energy Efficient Property. Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREB’s). The Act provides authorizes $800 million issuance of bonds to create capital for renewable energy investments. Eligible issuers: State and local governments Public power and electronic cooperatives CREB program expiration, Dec. 31, 2009
  • 28.
    ITC Program ExpandedTax credit rate remains 30 percent, but the applicability is greatly expanded. Investment cap removed, effective Dec. 31, 2008. Previously was $2,000. New method is based upon qualified solar panel property expenditures. Alternative Minimum Tax (ATM) filers now permitted to take advantage of the credit. Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) estimates that the following states will benefit the most from the ITC and overall industry activity: CA, FL, AZ, CO, NV, NJ, MA, NY, OR, and WA SEIA expects benefits to support PA, MI, OH and the Great Lakes region. A tax deduction rate of $1.80 per square foot of commercial building space is provided for energy efficiency installations. The qualifying rate is described as a 50 percent or greater increase in efficiency (reduction in cost) over traditional energy systems.
  • 29.
    Costs of CertainProgram Components Source: Solar Energy Industries Association Program Estimated Cost Extension of Tax Credits $1.942 billion over 10 years Residential Energy-Efficient Property Credit $1.294 billion over 10 years Clean Renewable Energy Bonds $267 million over 10 years All clean energy programs, including solar, wind, and waves and tides among others $5.817 billion over 10 years Tax credits for AMT filers $61.87 billion over 10 years R & D credits $19.084 billion over 10 years
  • 30.
    About Global HunterSecurities, LLC Global Hunter Securities, LLC is an international investment banking and institutional services firm. Global Hunter Securities, LLC has offices in Newport Beach, California; Houston, Texas; and New Orleans, Louisiana. The Company’s focus is on providing products and services to small and micro cap corporate and institutional clients. Strong presence and reputation in China. Seasoned professionals with market savvy and passion who maintain the highest standards of integrity and work ethic. Visit us at www.ghsecurities.com