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Southern Maine Retail Review & Outlook 2015
- 1. 2014 State of the Market RETAIL
- 2. National Retail Trends Local Market Conditions Notable Leases & Sales Forecast 2015
- 10. HOW BRICKS & MORTAR STAYS HEALTHY “To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
- 11. INTERNET SCHOOL Omnichannel Definition: Seamless approach to the consumer experience through all available shopping channels: mobile, computers, bricks and mortar, TV, radio, direct mail etc.
- 14. LOCATION, LOCATION , LOCATION
- 15. LOCATION, LOCATION , LOCATION
- 16. CHANGE IS GOOD?
- 17. STATISTICS
- 18. GREATER PORTLAND VACANCY RATES 10.80% 8.34% 6.17% 5.92% 4.29% 3.68% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- 19. GREATER PORTLAND VS NATIONAL RATES 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Greater Portland National 9.7% 3.68%
- 20. GREATER PORTLAND AREA VACANCY RATES 0.0% 12.7% 5.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 3.68% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Cape Eliz Falmouth Portland Scarb So Portland Westbrook All
- 21. VACANCY RATE PRIMARY & SECONDARY 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2013 2014 Primary Secondary
- 22. GREATER PORTLAND NET ABSORPTION RATE 2014 BOY inventory total 6,460,738 BOY vacant 277,283 BOY occupied 6,183,455 EOY inventory total 6,460,738 Adjustments* - EOY vacant 239,658 EOY occupied 6,221,080 Net Absorption 37,625 2013 6,449,542 382,136 6,067,406 6,460,738 - 277,283 6,183,455 116,049
- 23. GREATER PORTLAND NEW CONSTRUCTION BY DECADE 144,903 SF 110,632 SF 94,232 SF 114,754 SF 144,106 SF 26,020 SF 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's Note: Average annual rate of construction.
- 24. 2013 2014 LARGE VACANCIES 2013 2014 132,698 SF 133,667 SF 2013 2014 Pine Tree Shopping Center Center 30,548 SF 30,262 SF 2013 2014 Clark Pond 17,500 SF 25,435 SF 2013 2014 Cabela's 16,000 SF 15,000 SF 2013 2014 Falmouth Shopping Center 68,650 SF 62,970 SF
- 25. HISTORICAL LEASE RATES $14.08 $14.86 $18.71 $20.50 $18.00 $16.25 $15.03 $14.63 $13.87 $14.63 $14.42 $15.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00 $20.00 $22.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- 26. OTHER MAINE VACANCY RATES 6.3% 4.0% 16.4% 10.5% 5.9% 5.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Augusta Biddeford Brunswick Freeport Saco Topsham
- 30. 11,000 SF15,000 SF9,300 SF LARGER DEALS
- 31. 11,000 SF15,000 SF9,300 SF8,400 SF LARGER DEALS
- 33. PORTLAND- OLD PORT BAYSIDE INDIA ST WEST END
- 34. PORTLAND- OLD PORT BAYSIDE INDIA ST 7,500 SF
- 37. TIQA 7,000 SF PORTLAND- OLD PORT
- 41. SMALL DEALS 2014 Total# 85 Average SF 1,817 Total SF 154,409 2013 2012 95 75 2,065 2,050 196,190 153,732
- 43. SMALL DEALS Retail Outside Portland 83% SERVICE, FOOD, OTHER 27% MERCHANDISE
- 44. SMALL DEALS 83% SERVICE, FOOD, OTHER 56% SERVICE, FOOD, OTHER Retail in Portland 44% MERCHANDISE
- 45. DISCOUNTERS
- 46. DISCOUNTERS
- 47. DISCOUNTERS
- 48. DISCOUNTERS
- 49. 1.25- 1.5 Acres 4,500 SF GAS/CONVENIENCE
- 50. 1.25- 1.5 Acres 4,500 SF GAS/CONVENIENCE
- 51. GAS/CONVENIENCE
- 52. GAS/CONVENIENCE
- 53. COFFEE
- 54. COFFEE
- 55. COFFEE
- 56. AUBURN
- 58. BRUNSWICK • Merrymeeting Plaza- 50K vacant • Cooks Corner- 35K vacant
- 59. WINDHAM
- 60. BIDDEFORD
- 61. BIDDEFORD
- 62. STORE CLOSINGS • EMS- 18,000 SF • Young’s Furniture Market- 20,000 SF • J.L. Coombs- 5 stores • Clark’s Pond- 113,000 SF (Projected EOY inventory for 2015)
- 63. PROPERTY SALES $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Avg Annual PSF $69 $74 $121 $118 $88 Total # of sales 15 8 9 10 21
- 64. TD Bank $1.75M $235.75 PSF 6.7 CAP PROPERTY SALES
- 65. TD Bank $1.75M $235.75 PSF 6.7 CAP STARBUCKS/MATTRESS FIRM $4.78M $704.14 PSF 6.75 CAP PROPERTY SALES
- 66. TD Bank $1.75M $235.75 PSF 6.7 CAP STARBUCKS/MATTRESS FIRM $4.78M $704.14 PSF 6.75 CAP NORTHERN PLAZA $700,000 $8.33 PSF 15 CAP PROPERTY SALES
- 67. TD Bank $1.75M $235.75 PSF 6.7 CAP STARBUCKS/MATTRESS FIRM $4.78M $704.14 PSF 6.75 CAP NORTHERN PLAZA $700,000 $8.33 PSF 15 CAP POLAND CROSSING $2.98M $147.74 PSF 9 CAP PROPERTY SALES
- 68. TD Bank $1.75M $235.75 PSF 6.7 CAP STARBUCKS/MATTRESS FIRM $4.78M $704.14 PSF 6.75 CAP NORTHERN PLAZA $700,000 $8.33 PSF 15 CAP POLAND CROSSING $2.98M $147.74 PSF 9 CAP MILL STORE $2.2M $88.53 PSF PROPERTY SALES
- 69. TD Bank $1.75M $235.75 PSF 6.7 CAP STARBUCKS/MATTRESS FIRM $4.78M $704.14 PSF 6.75 CAP NORTHERN PLAZA $700,000 $8.33 PSF 15 CAP POLAND CROSSING $2.98M $147.74 PSF 9 CAP MILL STORE $2.2M $88.53 PSF DUNSTAN SCHOOL 1.48M $110.45 PSF PROPERTY SALES
- 70. 2015 FORECAST
- 71. 2015 FORECAST Vacancy Rates • Primary Markets • Secondary Markets
- 72. Lease Rates • Primary Markets • Secondary Markets Small spaces- rise sharply Large spaces- rise slightly Small spaces- flat Large spaces- decline 2015 FORECAST
- 73. Investment Sales Will Increase. However we are challenged by lack of supply and potential rising interest rates. 2015 FORECAST
- 75. WIDGERY WHARF 15,000 SF 2015 FORECAST
- 76. New Construction • Dirigo Plaza- 550,000 SF • Century Plaza- Bayside- 13,000 SF • Bayside Housing- 100,000 SF 2015 FORECAST
- 78. “It’s a wise man who rules the stars, it’s a fool who’s ruled by them” …Darrell Martini, The ‘Great’ Cosmic Muffin
- 79. Presented by Mark Malone, CCIM 15th Annual Retail Report