ANALYSING ATTITUDES & BEHAVIOURS OF BRITISH TOURISTS - British Tourism

1. Measuring Domestic Tourism
Trends and Challenges
Sharon Orrell
Head of Research & Insight
VisitEngland
Jim Eccleston
Director
TNS UK

2. In 2015, an estimated £85bn was spent on tourism in England –
over three-quarters of this by GB residents
Source: GBTS, GBDVS, IPS
£19.6
£46.4
£19.1
Tourism Spend in England 2015 (£bn)
Domestic Overnight
Domestic Day Trips
Inbound (est.)

3. The last two years have seen fluctuating growth trends in the domestic market
Source: GBTS
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Domestic Tourism in England – Rolling 12 Month Trend
Holiday
VFR
Business
2015 vs 2014
+7%
+13%
+2%
Trips
(m)

4. 1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
£/Euro Exchange Rate
Was this the story of the staycation?

5. 10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestic Holiday Visits in England 2006-2015
1-3 nights 4+ nights
Volume growth has been driven by the short break market
Source: GBTS
Trips
(m)
Average holiday
trip 3.65 nights
Average holiday
trip 3.35 nights

6. 6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seaside Large city/ large town
The destination profile of trips has changed –
we’re almost taking as many city breaks as seaside holidays
Source: GBTS
Trips
(m)
Domestic Holiday Trips in England - Destination type

7. 8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestic Holidays by Social Grade 2006-2015
AB C1 C2DE
The profile of trip takers has also changed – the share of more affluent
consumers has increased
Source: GBTS
vs. 2006
+39%
-12%
+1%
Trips
(m)

8. 100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Indexed holiday spending by category: 2006 = 100
All spending Accommodation
Eating & Drinking Out Other (travel, shopping, entertainment)
Perhaps explaining increased willingness to spend more
on accommodation and eating out?
Source: GBTS
Index
(2006=100)

9. Brits took more holiday trips last year than at any point in the last decade
Source: GBTS, IPS
52 52 51
60 55 58 58 57 53 56
45 45 46
39
36 37 36 37 39
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestic Holidays Overseas Holidays
Trips
(m)
GB Residents - Domestic and Overseas Holiday Trips

10. Growth in both sectors was also the pattern after the last recession
Source: UKTS, IPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Domestic and Overseas Holidays 1989 - 1998
Overseas holidays UK Holiday (Pure Holiday + VFR Holiday)
Recession
Trips
(m)

11. Cause, effect and forecasting
Blind faith in big data
The limits of disaggregation
Money, money, money
Individuals and repertoires
The need for speed
The data challenges we face in a changing market

12. Firstly, let’s remind ourselves of the current methodologies for GBTS & GBDVS
• Day visits
• Since 2011
• 35,000 respondents
• Online panel approach
• Need for partial redesign to encourage
completion across mobiles and tablets
2016 new contract provided the opportunity for radical redesign – in particular, bringing
data collection for the two surveys together
• Overnights
• Since 1990
• 100,000 respondents
• Face-to-face in home omnibus
• BUT declining response rates,
increasingly expensive, limited future
GBTS GBDVS

13. The potential provided by a merged GBTS-GBDVS which incorporates some
additional question areas
13
Holistic understanding
of domestic tourism
Efficient design1
2
3
4
Understanding linkages with
overseas and other leisure activity
Greater predictive role
5 Major cost savings!

14. Contacting one respondent rather than two
Shared respondent characteristics and
demographics
Single methodology ensuring consistency
and comparability
More graphical, less
wordy
Device agnostic
The potential provided by a merged GBTS-GBDVS which incorporates some
additional question areas
Holistic understanding
of domestic tourism
Efficient design1
2
3
4
Understanding linkages with
overseas and other leisure activity
Greater predictive role
5 Major cost savings!

15. Really understand the GB
consumer’s leisure taking
How does day trip activity
relate to overnight activity?
Advanced analytics to compare motivations for
day trips and overnights for similar activities
Understand individuals and repertoire
The potential provided by a merged GBTS-GBDVS which incorporates some
additional question areas
Holistic understanding
of domestic tourism
Efficient design1
2
3
4
Understanding linkages with
overseas and other leisure activity
Greater predictive role
5 Major cost savings!

16. Inclusion of top-line overseas
holidays question to help
establish true linkages
Basic information around party, type of holiday
trip etc. will provide a further layer of diagnostics
Possibility to also include other, ‘non-tourism’
discretionary spend – house extensions etc.
The potential provided by a merged GBTS-GBDVS which incorporates some
additional question areas
Holistic understanding
of domestic tourism
Efficient design1
2
3
4
Understanding linkages with
overseas and other leisure activity
Greater predictive role
5 Major cost savings!

17. J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
2018 2019 2020 2021
Holistic understanding of leisure-taking: better understanding of the
inter-relationship between different types of trip – at home and abroad
Dummy Data
Domestic beach holidays
Overseas beach holidays
Domestic city breaks
Overseas city breaks
110
100
90

18. Trip-taking intentions over
a pre-defined period in the
future
Linkage to consumer
confidence
Comparison of predicted and actual behaviours
Forecasting potential
The potential provided by a merged GBTS-GBDVS which incorporates some
additional question areas
Holistic understanding
of domestic tourism
Efficient design1
2
3
4
Understanding linkages with
overseas and other leisure activity
Greater predictive role
5 Major cost savings!

19. Forecasting possibilities: by asking questions around intentions, we will be
able to compare predicted behaviour with actual behaviour
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
2018 2019 2020 2021
Likelihoodtotakeholidaysinnext12mo
comparedto12mopreviously
Domestic holidays
Overseas holidays

20. The potential provided by a merged GBTS-GBDVS which incorporates some
additional question areas
Holistic understanding
of domestic tourism
Efficient design1
2
3
4
Understanding linkages with
overseas and other leisure activity
Greater predictive role
5 Major cost savings!

21. But do we achieve this? With A LOT of parallel testing throughout 2016!
• Provides optimised ongoing measure of same day visits activity
• Comparison of GBTS questions asked ONLINE vs OFFLINE
• Impact of different placements of the GBTS and GBDVS modules and question wordings
• Interesting initial results – 3x increase in claimed trips! Lessons on question wording
• Longer term ambition: the online survey will become core source of all data
Off-line
GBTS:
core source of data
Online
GBDVS & GBTS hybrid survey:
core source of GBDVS data and
online version of GBTS survey

22. A device agnostic, modular combined
questionnaire has been developed:
Demographics and leisure
taking toplines
Domestic Day Visits
(‘GBDVS’)
Domestic Overnights
(‘GBTS’)
Overseas Leisure
Business Day Visits
Holistic understanding of
leisure activity
Predictive / future view
of activity

23. Technology trigger Peak of inflated
expectation
Trough of
disillusionment
Slope of
englightenment
Pleateau of
productivity
Social Media
Utilising Social Media Analytics:
To date, many of us have been burnt/underwhelmed
Source: Gartner
Visibility
Maturity

24. To get to real ‘meaning’ requires time, energy and sophisticated intelligence.
But this could add flavour to the evaluation of tourism activities and events
Data cleaning Intelligent Analytics

25. Location-triggered mobile surveys could be used to supplement the national
surveys – especially for event based local impact analysis
• Location targeting options:
– Specific locations
– Targeting in a specified zone
• Determine the locations:
– e.g. Location of a festival or event
• As respondent passes through / in to the
defined location, their user ID is recorded
• The survey is pushed to respondents flagged
as having been at the location over a set
period of time.

26. GBTS 2020? Integrated social media analytics and ‘in the moment’ surveys
within the context of the national surveys – transformational analysis
Slimmer domestic tourism
survey
Predictive always-on
equity measures from social
In-the-moment and
location triggered surveys
Deep dives to explore
issues as they arise

27. In summary, ensuring the domestic tourism monitors are fit for the future will
be based on steady evolution and harnessing the tools available

28. Thank you
Sharon Orrell, VisitEngland
Jim Eccleston, TNS