Gold prices have halted recent gains amid increased risk appetite in financial markets and expectations that global central banks will tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. Gold remains range-bound below $1800/oz as real interest rates remain low. The pace of gains may pick up again if economic data points to central banks falling behind the curve on inflation or if gold breaks above resistance at $1805. Downside risks emerge if prices fall below support at $1750/oz.

1. Gold Technical Analysis: Halted
Gains

2. Points To Be Covered Today:
• The Pace Of Gold's Gains Stopped
• Buying Gold From Every Bearish Level
• Decisions By Global Central Banks
• Showing Signs Of Resilience Amid Pressure
• The Candlestick Is Rather Bullish
• Gold Markets Continue To Be Very Erratic
• Gold Prices Look To Real Rates As November FOMC
Nears

3. The Pace Of Gold's Gains Stopped
• The bulls succeeded in pushing the price
of gold towards the $1785 resistance yesterday,
then retreating towards the $1767 support at the
beginning of trading today before settling around
$1776 as of this writing.
• The pace of gold's gains stopped amid investors'
appetite for risk, but I still see that there are
many factors that may support gold's move and
break through the psychological resistance of
$1800 again.
• This in turn may increase buying.

4. Buying Gold From Every Bearish Level
• I still prefer buying gold from every bearish
level.
• The closest targets for the correction are the
support levels at $1763, $1755 and $1740.
• The price of gold is heading to a neutral
environment with a bullish bias, and it is
waiting for catalysts to launch higher.

5. The US Dollar Fell
• The US dollar fell after the release of
disappointing US industrial production data
that eased concerns about inflation and
tightening monetary policy.
• Impacted by the weak data, bond yields fell
and the US Dollar Index fell to a three-week
low.

6. Decisions By Global Central Banks
• The recent decline of the US dollar allowed
the price of gold to move higher and stabilize
around the $1790 resistance level for 3 trading
sessions in a row.
• According to the technical performance and
on the daily chart, the price of gold may
return to neutrality if it returns to the support
area of $1759 again.

7. Prefer Buying Gold From Every Dip
• I still prefer buying gold from every dip,
and what is stopping the pace of gains is
the expectation of global central banks
tightening monetary policy in the face of
the strong and historical rise in inflation
rates as a result of the energy and supply
chain crisis

8. Showing Signs Of Resilience Amid
Pressure
• The gold markets continue to be very erratic,
so you need to be very cautious about
your position size, and only add once the
trade starts to work out in your favor.
• Gold markets rallied a bit on Wednesday as
we continue to see the markets reach towards
the massive downtrend line as well as the
200-day EMA.

9. Market See A Lot Of Resistance
• The market is going to see a lot of resistance just
above this overall area, extending all the way to
the $1805 level, so as long as we stay below
there, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to
get long.
• As long as we stay below that massive barrier, I
do not have any interest in trying to get too cute,
because with the interest rates in the United
States continuing to rise, it works against the
value of gold in general, so I think you need to
pay close attention to the 10-year note.

10. The Candlestick Is Rather Bullish
• The candlestick is rather bullish, but we have
seen this happen before, where the gold market
rallies only to give up the gains.
• I think this is likely to be a market that you still
have to focus on in the short term, because even
though we have had a nice move to the upside
during the day, the reality is that on the short-
term chart you see a significant amount of
choppy volatility and indecision.

11. The Overall Attitude Of The Market
• There was a massive selloff as soon as Wall Street
came on board, but it seems to have abated.
• This does not necessarily mean that you can base
anything on that small segment in time.
• When you look at the overall attitude of the
market though, it is obvious that it is starting to
struggle to make it known as to which direction
we are going, so I am waiting to see some type of
breakout or break down to get involved.

12. Market Breaking Down Quite
Significantly
• A breakdown below the $1750 level would
have this market breaking down quite
significantly, just as a move to the $1805
level that shows continuation would be a
very bullish sign.
• Between those two levels, I think we just
have more sideways chop than anything
else.

13. Gold Markets Continue To Be Very
Erratic
• The gold markets continue to be very
erratic, so you need to be very cautious
about your position size, and only add once
the trade starts to work out in your favor.
• The market does tend to move very quickly
once it makes up its mind, so keep that in
the back of your head as well.

14. Gold Markets Continue To Be Very
Erratic - I

15. Gold Prices Look To Real Rates As
November FOMC Nears
• Gold prices coiling up in familiar range as
traders ponder real rates outlook
• Speculation ahead of key
November FOMC meeting might trigger a
breakout
• October’s flash PMI data in focus near-term,
downside surprise risk hinted.

16. Gold Prices Continue To Tread Water
• Gold prices continue to tread water in familiar
territory as expected, anchored by static real
interest rates.
• Nominal yields are on the rise thanks to a
hawkish turn in the Fed policy outlook, which has
in turn tracked surging inflation expectations.
• Recently however, the rise in price growth bets
has outpaced nominal rates, capping real yields.

17. Gold Kept A Float
• This seems to imply that markets expect the US central
bank to fall behind the curve on curbing prices.
• Not surprisingly, that has kept gold afloat: traders have
understandably reckoned that the 0% yield offered by
bullion is a better store-of-value prospect than the
negative return on cash.
• A rethink may be in order. Fed Funds futures imply that
markets now price in 130 basis points in tightening
through the end of 2024.
• Chair Jerome Powell and company projected a more
spirited 175 basis points in hikes over the same period
at last month’s FOMC conclave however.

18. Bearish Backdrop Remains Despite
Sticky Range
• Gold prices remain locked in familiar territory
below the $1800/oz figure, though the bearish
bias established from August 2020 remains intact.
• A break below support at 1750.78 may expose
1717.89 on route to the 2021 floor under
$1700/oz.
• Resistance begins at 1808.16, followed by the
range top at 1834.14.
• A daily close above that seems needed to make
the case for upside follow-through.

19. Gold Spot / US Dollar

20. Gold Technical Analysis: Halted
Gains

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Technical Analysis: Halted
Gains