The document discusses gold's price movements in 2013 and draws an analogy to its movements in 2020-2021. It notes that gold's long-term chart and technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are in nearly identical positions now as in 2012-2013, suggesting gold may follow a similar pattern of declines. This includes a small consolidation, rally to a high, then declining in stages until a large drop between April-June 2013. The document argues gold appears primed to experience one more brief correction before truly sliding in price, mirroring its behavior in 2013.

1. Gold 2013 Analogy: The One To
Rule Them All

2. Point To Be Covered Today:
• Gold – Started To Emerge On Investors’
Radars
• Gold’s Long-term Chart
• Gold Start With Small Consolidation
• Gold Stocks Underperform Gold
• Weekly Technical Analysis Update
• Gold Price & Chart

3. Gold – Started To Emerge On
Investors’ Radars
• It’s almost 9/11 – 20 years ago
everything changed for so many people.
• The world was never the same since the
day of the tragedy.
• So many unnecessary deaths, and so
much suffering that resulted from them…

4. Gold – Started To Emerge On
Investors’ Radars - I
• Gold – being the safe-haven asset – soared in the
immediate aftermath, but it was not the
immediate rally that really mattered.
• It was the shift in the global sentiment that
was the real change.
• The world suddenly became a much more violent
and uncertain place in the eyes of many
investors.
• Therefore, the need for getting protection – in
the form of gold – started to emerge on investors’
radars.

5. Gold Seems Poised To Soar To The
Moon
• Twenty years later we have gold priced over 6 times higher
than the price it reached immediately after the 9/11
disaster.
• Moreover, with the monetary authorities printing massive
amounts of money in the aftermath of yet another tragedy
– the recent pandemic – gold seems poised to soar to the
moon.
• But
• Just because something is likely to move much higher, it
doesn’t mean that it can’t become overvalued on a
temporary basis.
• Just because something is likely to move much higher, it
doesn’t mean that it’s likely to go higher now.

6. Bullish Get In Long Run
• And finally, just because something is likely to move
much higher, it doesn’t mean that it’s likely to go
higher without declining first.
• And the gold price – as bullish as it might get in the
long run – is very likely repeating its pattern from 2013,
when it declined profoundly.
• There are multiple confirmations present in other
markets (like gold stocks) and ratios (like gold to bonds
ratio, and gold stocks to gold ratio that shows the
extreme weakness of the entire precious metals
market), but in today’s analysis, I would like to focus on
gold’s price itself.

7. The USD Index
• The history repeats itself to a considerable
degree, and you will soon see that the fact that
gold was unable to hold its breakout above its
2011 highs was not accidental.
• It’s not a coincidence that gold is now about
$300 lower than it was when it reached its
August 2020 high, even though the USD Index is
trading approximately at the same levels as it was
trading in August 2020.
• Let’s jump right into gold’s long-term chart.

8. Gold’s Long-term Chart

9. The RSI & The MACD
• Even without zooming in, you can clearly see that
both areas marked in yellow are similar (please
note that you can click on the chart to enlarge it).
• Before discussing gold’s price moves, please note
that the positions of the indicators (the RSI in the
upper part of the chart, and the MACD in the
lower part of the chart) are almost identical now
and during the 2012-2013 decline.
• The areas marked with red and blue correspond
to each other.

10. The RSI & The MACD - I

11. Gold 2020-2021

12. Gold Start With Small Consolidation
• Both yellow areas start with a small consolidation
that takes place after a big rally and right before
an even more profound rally, which takes gold to
a spike-like high.
• Then gold declines. After the first drop and a
quick rebound (in both cases), we get the first
local top, where gold shows that it’s unable to
reach the previous high, let alone break above it.
• We saw that in November 2011 and in early
November 2020.

13. Another Decline In Gold’s Price
• Then we see another decline in gold’s price.
This time, it takes gold below its 40-week
moving average (marked with red).
• Both bottoms form quickly, and the comeback
is swift. That happened in December 2011 and
in late November 2020.
• Then we see another move higher – right to
the most recent local high. That happened in
February 2012 and in early January 2021.

14. Gold Relatively Close To The Previous
Local
• And then we see another slide lower. In this case,
gold bottoms close to the small consolidation
that preceded the final (2011, 2020) top.
• The bottoms were broad and took place
between May 2012 and July 2012, as well as
between March and April 2021.
• Then we get yet another rally that takes gold
relatively close to the previous local tops
(October 2012 and May 2021).
• In both cases, the shape of the top is broader
than it was in the case of the previous two tops.

15. Gold Stocks Underperform Gold
• After that top, a huge decline in the price of
gold begins, but it’s not clear at first, and
many people still think it’s just a consolidation
that will be followed by more rallies.
• During this time (October 2012 – early 2013,
and May 2021 – now) gold moves back and
forth with lower lows and lower highs.
• Gold stocks underperform gold in a clear
manner in both periods.

16. Current Trading Range Before Gold
Truly Slides
• So far, the moves have been extremely similar,
and if the history simply continues to be similar,
we can estimate what’s ahead by extrapolating
what we already saw in 2013.
• Based on this analogy, it seems that we’re about
to see one final correction when gold once again
moves to its previous (2021) lows, but this
correction won’t be significant.
• It will be the final good-bye to the current
trading range before gold truly slides – just as it
did between April and June 2013.

17. Weekly Technical Analysis Update

18. Gold Price

19. XAUUSD CHART

20. Gold 2013 Analogy: The One To
Rule Them All

21. Thanks for listening
Gold 2013 Analogy: The One To Rule
Them All