Presentation given by Moniek Coumans, Hans Schmeets, Judith Wolf, Peter van der Heijden and Maarten Cruyff, The Netherlands at a FEANTSA Research Conference on "Understanding Homelessness and Housing Exclusion in the New European Context", Budapest, Hungary, 2010

1. Insert your logo here
Homeless in the
Netherlands:
a population size estimation and
profile description
Moniek Coumans, Statistics Netherlands
Judith Wolf, UMC Radboud University Nijmegen
Peter van der Heijden, University of Utrecht
Maarten Cruyff, University of Utrecht/ Statistics Netherlands
Hans Schmeets, Statistics Netherlands
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN THE
ENHR
NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

2. This presentation
 Background
 Definition
 Research questions
 Method
 Results
 Conclusions
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

3. Background
 Strong policy focus on the local level since
2006 (“homelessness action plan”)
 Size estimations on the national level are
not up-to-date
 National estimations vary largely
 Actual and reliable information about the
Dutch homeless population on national
level is needed
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

4. Definition
 Definition according to European Typology of
Homelessness and Housing Exclusion (ETHOS)
and refers to roofless people:
 Living in the streets or covered public spaces
 Overnight shelter, low threshold shelter or
transient accommodations run by the homeless
sector, including emergency shelters
 In the homes of friends, acquaintances or
relatives
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

5. Research questions
 What is the size of the actual homeless
population in the Netherlands on the 1th
of January 2009?
 What is the profile of the population
being estimated (in terms of gender, age,
marital status and origin)?
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

6. Method: analyses
 Capture recapture
 Estimate the unobserved part of a
population by using proportions
 Using registrations instead of samples
Example size estimation of the homeless population in Budapest: Dá & Snijders, 2002
vid
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

7. Illustration 1
 Total population: N
 Sample 1: n1, these are marked
 Sample 2: n2
 Marked cases in sample 2: m2
 m2/n2 ≈ n1/N
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

8. Illustration 2
B= B=  b, c and d have been
0 1 observed
A= a b  a can be calculated
0 by: bc/d
 N can be calculated
A= c d by b+c+d+bc/d
1
N
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

9. Method: Resources
 A matched file of people who, according to the
national population register, were registered on
an address of a night shelter or low threshold
provision
 An administrative file of people who were
receiving a social payment according to the
regulation of homelessness
 An selection of homeless people from the
national alcohol and drug information system
(LADIS, NIVZ)
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

10. Method: Assumptions
 CRC in a two-list case assumes:
 Population is closed
 No matching problems. Absence of:
 Incorrect matches
 Missed matches
 Capture probabilities homogeneous over
individuals.
 Prob of being in list 1 independent of prob of
being in list 2
Introductions: Bishop et al (1975); IWGDMF (1995)
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

11. Have the assumptions been met?
 Closed population: yes, by using a
reference date
 Perfect record linkage: yes, by using the
national population register
 Homogeneous capture probabilities over
individuals: partly, by using covariates
 Independency between both lists: Partly,
by using covariates and third list
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

12. Results
Population size estimation
 Observed population in registers: 5169
 Unobserved part of population: 12 598
 About 17 750 roofless people
 95% CI 15 500-21 000
 Plausibility?
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

13. Profile of homeless population
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Non-western
Not married
0
(excl. Dutch)
18-29 years
30-49 years
50-64 years
background
background
background
Devorced/
Married
Female
widowed
Male
Western
Dutch
Gender Age Marital status Origin
Dutch population Homeless population
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT

14. Conclusions
 About 18 homeless people per 10 000
inhabitants
 Profile Dutch homeless: a 40 year old
unmarried male
 A considerable part of the Dutch
population is still roofless; important for
Dutch policy
European Research Conference, Budapest, 17th September 2010
UNDERSTANDING HOMELESSNESS AND HOUSING EXCLUSION IN ENHR
THE NEW EUROPEAN CONTEXT