This document discusses the challenges of accurately summarizing housing market statistics due to the many different indexes that exist. It notes that no single index can provide a complete picture due to differences in geography covered, data sources, time periods measured, and other factors. The document advocates asking local professionals for their on-the-ground perspective to get a more nuanced view than any single index can provide. It also stresses the importance of considering inflation when analyzing housing price changes over time.

1. "BEING A STATISTICIAN MEANS
NEVER HAVING TO SAY
YOU’RE CERTAIN"
Graham Norwood

2. THE SALES MARKET FIGURES
Office for National Statistics: £242,000 Up 3.1%
Land Registry: £164,098 Up 0.8%
Halifax/Bank of Scotland: £170,733 Up 6.2%
Nationwide: £172,127 Up 5.0%
Rightmove: £245,495 Up 4.5%
LSL Property Services: £233,776 Up 3.2%

3. AND I DIDN’T MENTION...
Hometrack.... RICS.... Mouseprice.... Knight Frank....
Savills.... Nethouseprice... the Zed-Index....
...or Sentiment Indices, Confidence Indices
or Market Barometers...
...or ‘the nations’ and regions.
Surely the Lettings market is more rational......

4. THE LETTINGS MARKET FIGURES
LSL Property Services: £743 Up 1.3%
Move With Us: £970 Up 0.36%
Office for National Statistics: Up 1.3%
And then there are the RICS, ARLA, Homelet,
Zoopla Rent v Buy Index, Spareroom.co.uk Room Index,
Savills, Knight Frank, CML Buy-To-Let Mortgage Index...

5. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
What Geography?
Rightmove is UK but Hometrack only England & Wales
ONS is Britain but Land Registry only England & Wales
Generally, excluding Scotland/Wales skews prices up
And what about the regions, sub-regions, cities,
parishes...?

6. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
Who Contributes?
Estate agents only? (Hometrack)
Surveyors? (RICS)
Buyers? (ONS, Land Registry) or Sellers? (Rightmove)
Lettings Agents (ARLA) or Landlords? (Move With Us)

7. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
What Point In The Cycle?
Halifax and Nationwide - mortgage offer
Rightmove - asking price
ONS/Land Registry - completions

8. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
What Is The Sample?
What geographical area?
Are there exclusions (eg, ex-LA or very high value)?
Mortgage applicants only or cash buyers too?
Will London/SE skew overall result?

9. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
How Timely Is The Index Released?
Monthly Or Quarterly?
Completions ‘Slow’ But Asking Price/Rent ‘Fast’
Is There Historical Data? (Halifax, Land Registry)

10. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
Why Does The Index Exist?
To Inform Public And/Or Industry? (RICS, for example)
Policy-making? (ONS, Halifax for example)
To Sell Something? (Rightmove, Hometrack for example)

11. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK
WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF
INFLATION?
The forgotten element,
missing from every index

12. THE ONES I LIKE...
RICS because it is accountable...
Halifax/Nationwide because they have regional data...
LSL because its lettings data is approachable...
Land Registry because it breaks it down to LA level...
...but for what it’s worth...

13. MY VIEW
Ask a proven, trusted professional...
...on the ground
...working day to day
...dealing with landlords and tenants, buyers and sellers
...and keep the indices ‘direction of travel’ as a broad
guide.

14. AND PLEASE REMEMBER
3.5 statisticians out of 7
over-complicate
things