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1 Neelam Desai
Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD):
When Controlling Shareholders Pillage Minority
Shareholders
Position Type: SHORT
Current Share Price: $ 10.83
Fair Value Estimate: $ 0.00
VALUATION METRICS
Note: SHLD is losing money and is doingso at an accelerating rate. As a result, all of its valuation metrics are
negative.
Metric Value Explanatory Note
Price/Earnings (0.52) Earnings (loss) per common share over the past 12
months was($20.78)
Price/Book (0.30) Book value (deficit)pershare was(35.77)
Enterprise Value (EV) /EBITDA (9.80) EV/share = 130.50; EBITDA/share = (13.31)
Cash fromOperations/Share Yr 2016: (12.97)
Yr 2015: (20.27)
Yr 2014: (12.92)
BACKGROUND
SearsHoldingCorporation, hereinafterreferred toas“Sears”, istheholdingcompany forSears(U.S), SearsCanada,
andKmart. Oncea storiedAmericancompany, theSearsstory hasessentially becomethestory oftwo men:Eddie
Lampert, a former investment banker and current managing partner at the hedge fund ESL Investments, and
Bruce Berkowitz, theportfoliomanagerof theonce high-flyingFairholmeFund. Together, LampertandBerkowitz
control 84.6% ofSears’ stock.1
Over the past few years, Lampert and Berkowitz have treated Sears as their own person cash cow and begunto
slowly strip the company of its most valuableassets. This process, however, cannotgo on indefinitely. At some
point, we believe, Sears will be either forced to declare bankruptcy, or will be taken private by Lampert and
Berkowitz at a price thatis muchlower thanits current share price. Over the next few pages, we will detail some
1
As of March 13, 2017.
2 Neelam Desai
of the ways that Lampert and Berkowitz have diverted Sears’ cashflows and assets to themselves and provide
somecontextfor thegrim outlook forSearsasa goingconcern. Tosimplify thisdiscussion, wewill refer toentities
thatare controlled by or affiliated with Lampertand Berkowitz otherthan Sears as“Lampert and Berkowitz”.
SALE-LEASEBACK TRANSACTIONS AND RELATED-PARTY LOANS
The use of sale-leaseback transactions hasbeenthemostsignificanttacticLampertandBerkowitzhavedeployed
in their schemetostrip Searsof its mostvaluableassets. Usingthistactic, LampertandBerkowitzhaveused cash,
sometimesfinancedwithdebt, topurchasevaluablerealestate fromSearsandthenlease muchofthatreal estate
back toSears. Because Lampert andBerkowitz control Sears, they are incentivized to compel Searsto:
 sell these propertiesto Lampert andBerkowitz at below market prices
 agree topay Lampert andBerkowitz abovemarketrents
 agree to lease terms that are favorable to Lampert and Berkowitz but potentially disadvantageous to
Sears, and thus to its minority shareholders, such as the right for Lampert and Berkowitz to reclaim or
recapture these properties in whole or in part.
Inthe simplesttermspossible, thesetransactionscreate a situationinwhich Lampert andBerkowitz haveworked
large payments to themselves into Sears’ operating and capital structure: whenever customers do business at
Sears, a significant portionof the cash generated by their spendingis collected by Lampert andBerkowitz, in the
form of rental payments, beforeminority shareholders receive any of it. And, shoulda specific Searsstore notbe
able to pay its rent, Lampert andBerkowitz can take control of the store andsell or rent it to someoneelse.
Indeed, although Lampert and, later, both Lampert and Berkowitz have compelled Sears to sell hundreds of its
stores and numerousotherproperties over the pastdecade, nomoney whatsoeverhas been returnedto Sears’
minority shareholdersin the form of share buybacksordividends. In the meantime, the price of Sears’ common
stock has fallen from a pre-recession high of $120 to $10.83 while Lampert and Berkowitz have likely collected
billions of dollars in rental paymentsor from resales of Sears properties.2
Finally, nearly all of Sears’ borrowings were financed by Lampert and Berkowitz. As a result, Lampert and
Berkowitzcollect hundredsofmillionsof dollarsin interest payments fromSearsevery year. Moreover, aslessors
and lenders to Sears, Lampert and Berkowitz have positionedthemselves to take control of whatever intangible
assetsSears may have left, suchas its Kenmoreand DieHard brands, shouldSearsbe forced intobankruptcy.
POTENTIAL CATALYST – ASUPPLIER SQUEEZE
Many retailers, and especially Sears, with its increasingly large same-storesalesdeclines, simply cannotafford to
pay for their inventory upfront. As a result, such retailers rely on suppliers to provide them with inventory on
credit.
However, many of thesesuppliers, asignificant numberofwhomare basedin underdevelopedcountries, operate
onrazor thinmargins. If Searswere unableto settle its accountswithits suppliers, many ofthose suppliersmight
2 Lampert was able to gain control of Kmart in 2002-2003 while Kmart was in bankruptcy. He did so by purchasing a
significant amount of its debt for pennies on the dollar. Then, in 2004, with the economy in recovery, Kmart acquired Sears
and took the latter’s name for the newly merged company. Considering how little he paid for Kmart and how much he has
been able wrest from the company, Lampert’s investments in Kmart and Sears have likely been very profitable for him
despite the dramatic decline in Sears’ stock price.
3 Neelam Desai
be forced to go out of business. As a result, Sears’ suppliers are incentivized to stop supplying Sears with
merchandise, supply it with fewer products, ordemandmore favorable termsshouldSears’ businesscontinueto
deteriorate.
There are already signsthatthis is beginningtohappen. Initsmostrecent annualreport, Searsexpressed doubts
about its ability to continue as a going concern. A number of news reports have quoted suppliers who have
discussedreducingthe size of their shipmentstoSearsor demandingshorterpaymentperiods. Finally, according
to Reuters, insurance companies that once insured Sears’ vendors against nonpayment for their goods are no
longer willing to providesuch coverage.3
CONCLUSION
While many commentatorshaveproclaimedthatbecauseoftheriseofAmazon, brick-and-mortarretailis“dead”,
the Searsstory is morethanjustthe story of internetdisruption. Instead, itisthestory of financial engineers who
havetaken controlof a brick and mortarcompany inthe hopesof exploiting its real estate assets for themselves-
nottoincrease itssales, please its customers, orturnaprofit for itsminority shareholders. SearsandKmartstores
are habitually understaffed, understocked,anddirty. Theresulthasbeencomparablestoresalesthatareat levels
youwould expect to see duringa deep recession.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Domestic comparable store sales % -2.5% -3.8% -1.8% -9.2% -7.4%
Sears is already hemorrhaging cash and will continue to do so. Bankruptcy is only a matter of time. In the
meantime, it is a near certainty thatits stock price will continueto decline and, thus, SHLDshouldbe shorted.
3
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sears-restructuring-vendors-idUSKBN16T31S, Retrieved4/26/2017
4 Neelam Desai
DISCLAIMERS
Noneof the informationor analysespresented in any part of this report are intendedto form the basisfor any
investmentdecision, and nospecific recommendations for the intendedor unintendedrecipients are intended.
Accordingly, nothingin this report constitutesinvestmentadviceor counsel or solicitation for investmentin any
security- instead, this report merely indicates the views of why its authormay or may notdecide toengage in a
specific transaction. Youabsolutely shouldnotbase any investmentdecision whatsoeveron the basisof what
youhave read in this report, especially because yourinvestmentdecisions shouldbe madein the contextof
yourown investmentobjectives, financial constraints, andtolerance for risk. Youshouldalso understandthat
all investmentsare subject torisks andnone of the risksof any security havebeen discussedin thisreport. The
authorof this report hashad noopportunity toreview suchobjectives, constraints, orrisk tolerance and,
therefore, cannotprovide youwith advice. Therefore, you shouldnotrely on anythinginthis report to make
any investmentdecision. Any and all people whoplayed any role in producingthisreport expressly disclaim any
andall responsibility for any direct or consequentialloss or damageof any kindwhatsoever arising directly or
indirectly from: (i) reliance on any informationcontained in this report, (ii) any error, omissionor inaccuracy in
any such informationor (iii) any action resulting therefrom.
All informationin this report is provided"asis" without warranties, expressed or implied, or representationsof
any kind tothe fullest extent permissible underapplicable law, the author(s)will notbe liable for the quality,
accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of this information, orfor any direct, consequential, incidental,
special or punitivedamagesthatmay arise out of use of this informationby youor anyoneelse, includingbut
notlimited to lostprofits, lossof opportunities, tradinglosses, anddamagethatmay result from any inaccuracy
or him completenessof this informationto the fullest extent permittedby law. The author(s) will not be liable to
youor anyoneelse underany tort, contract, negligence, strict liability, productsliability, or other theory with
respect to this presentationof information.
The information, opinions, data, quantitativeandqualitativestatementscontainedin this report havebeen
obtainedfrom sources believed to be reliable buthave notbeen independently verified andare notguaranteed
as to accuracy nordoes it purportto be a complete analysisof every material fact regarding the company,
industry, orsecurity. The information, opinions, orrecommendationsaresolely for advisory andinformational
purposesandare only valid asof the date appearingon the report andare subject tochange without notice.
Statementsin this reportthat are not historical facts are "forward-lookingstatements" thatinvolverisksand
uncertainties. "Forwardlooking statements" asdefined under Section27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section
21Bof the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 andthePrivate Securities Litigation Act of 1995 includewords such
as "opportunities," "trends," "potential," "estimates," "may," "will," "could," "should," "anticipates," "expects" or
comparableterminology or by discussionsofstrategy. These forward lookingstatementsare subject to a
numberof knownand unknownrisksanduncertainties outsideof our controlthat could cause actual operations
or results todiffer materially from thoseanticipated. Factors thatcould affect performance include, butare not
limited to, thosefactors that are discussedin each profiled company'smostrecent reportsor registration
statementsfiled with the SEC. Investorsshouldconsiderthesefactors in evaluating the forward looking
statementsincluded in thisreport and notplace unduereliance uponsuchstatements. Investorsare
encouragedto read investmentinformationavailable at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and
FINRAat http://www.finra.org.

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Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD)

  • 1. 1 Neelam Desai Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD): When Controlling Shareholders Pillage Minority Shareholders Position Type: SHORT Current Share Price: $ 10.83 Fair Value Estimate: $ 0.00 VALUATION METRICS Note: SHLD is losing money and is doingso at an accelerating rate. As a result, all of its valuation metrics are negative. Metric Value Explanatory Note Price/Earnings (0.52) Earnings (loss) per common share over the past 12 months was($20.78) Price/Book (0.30) Book value (deficit)pershare was(35.77) Enterprise Value (EV) /EBITDA (9.80) EV/share = 130.50; EBITDA/share = (13.31) Cash fromOperations/Share Yr 2016: (12.97) Yr 2015: (20.27) Yr 2014: (12.92) BACKGROUND SearsHoldingCorporation, hereinafterreferred toas“Sears”, istheholdingcompany forSears(U.S), SearsCanada, andKmart. Oncea storiedAmericancompany, theSearsstory hasessentially becomethestory oftwo men:Eddie Lampert, a former investment banker and current managing partner at the hedge fund ESL Investments, and Bruce Berkowitz, theportfoliomanagerof theonce high-flyingFairholmeFund. Together, LampertandBerkowitz control 84.6% ofSears’ stock.1 Over the past few years, Lampert and Berkowitz have treated Sears as their own person cash cow and begunto slowly strip the company of its most valuableassets. This process, however, cannotgo on indefinitely. At some point, we believe, Sears will be either forced to declare bankruptcy, or will be taken private by Lampert and Berkowitz at a price thatis muchlower thanits current share price. Over the next few pages, we will detail some 1 As of March 13, 2017.
  • 2. 2 Neelam Desai of the ways that Lampert and Berkowitz have diverted Sears’ cashflows and assets to themselves and provide somecontextfor thegrim outlook forSearsasa goingconcern. Tosimplify thisdiscussion, wewill refer toentities thatare controlled by or affiliated with Lampertand Berkowitz otherthan Sears as“Lampert and Berkowitz”. SALE-LEASEBACK TRANSACTIONS AND RELATED-PARTY LOANS The use of sale-leaseback transactions hasbeenthemostsignificanttacticLampertandBerkowitzhavedeployed in their schemetostrip Searsof its mostvaluableassets. Usingthistactic, LampertandBerkowitzhaveused cash, sometimesfinancedwithdebt, topurchasevaluablerealestate fromSearsandthenlease muchofthatreal estate back toSears. Because Lampert andBerkowitz control Sears, they are incentivized to compel Searsto:  sell these propertiesto Lampert andBerkowitz at below market prices  agree topay Lampert andBerkowitz abovemarketrents  agree to lease terms that are favorable to Lampert and Berkowitz but potentially disadvantageous to Sears, and thus to its minority shareholders, such as the right for Lampert and Berkowitz to reclaim or recapture these properties in whole or in part. Inthe simplesttermspossible, thesetransactionscreate a situationinwhich Lampert andBerkowitz haveworked large payments to themselves into Sears’ operating and capital structure: whenever customers do business at Sears, a significant portionof the cash generated by their spendingis collected by Lampert andBerkowitz, in the form of rental payments, beforeminority shareholders receive any of it. And, shoulda specific Searsstore notbe able to pay its rent, Lampert andBerkowitz can take control of the store andsell or rent it to someoneelse. Indeed, although Lampert and, later, both Lampert and Berkowitz have compelled Sears to sell hundreds of its stores and numerousotherproperties over the pastdecade, nomoney whatsoeverhas been returnedto Sears’ minority shareholdersin the form of share buybacksordividends. In the meantime, the price of Sears’ common stock has fallen from a pre-recession high of $120 to $10.83 while Lampert and Berkowitz have likely collected billions of dollars in rental paymentsor from resales of Sears properties.2 Finally, nearly all of Sears’ borrowings were financed by Lampert and Berkowitz. As a result, Lampert and Berkowitzcollect hundredsofmillionsof dollarsin interest payments fromSearsevery year. Moreover, aslessors and lenders to Sears, Lampert and Berkowitz have positionedthemselves to take control of whatever intangible assetsSears may have left, suchas its Kenmoreand DieHard brands, shouldSearsbe forced intobankruptcy. POTENTIAL CATALYST – ASUPPLIER SQUEEZE Many retailers, and especially Sears, with its increasingly large same-storesalesdeclines, simply cannotafford to pay for their inventory upfront. As a result, such retailers rely on suppliers to provide them with inventory on credit. However, many of thesesuppliers, asignificant numberofwhomare basedin underdevelopedcountries, operate onrazor thinmargins. If Searswere unableto settle its accountswithits suppliers, many ofthose suppliersmight 2 Lampert was able to gain control of Kmart in 2002-2003 while Kmart was in bankruptcy. He did so by purchasing a significant amount of its debt for pennies on the dollar. Then, in 2004, with the economy in recovery, Kmart acquired Sears and took the latter’s name for the newly merged company. Considering how little he paid for Kmart and how much he has been able wrest from the company, Lampert’s investments in Kmart and Sears have likely been very profitable for him despite the dramatic decline in Sears’ stock price.
  • 3. 3 Neelam Desai be forced to go out of business. As a result, Sears’ suppliers are incentivized to stop supplying Sears with merchandise, supply it with fewer products, ordemandmore favorable termsshouldSears’ businesscontinueto deteriorate. There are already signsthatthis is beginningtohappen. Initsmostrecent annualreport, Searsexpressed doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern. A number of news reports have quoted suppliers who have discussedreducingthe size of their shipmentstoSearsor demandingshorterpaymentperiods. Finally, according to Reuters, insurance companies that once insured Sears’ vendors against nonpayment for their goods are no longer willing to providesuch coverage.3 CONCLUSION While many commentatorshaveproclaimedthatbecauseoftheriseofAmazon, brick-and-mortarretailis“dead”, the Searsstory is morethanjustthe story of internetdisruption. Instead, itisthestory of financial engineers who havetaken controlof a brick and mortarcompany inthe hopesof exploiting its real estate assets for themselves- nottoincrease itssales, please its customers, orturnaprofit for itsminority shareholders. SearsandKmartstores are habitually understaffed, understocked,anddirty. Theresulthasbeencomparablestoresalesthatareat levels youwould expect to see duringa deep recession. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Domestic comparable store sales % -2.5% -3.8% -1.8% -9.2% -7.4% Sears is already hemorrhaging cash and will continue to do so. Bankruptcy is only a matter of time. In the meantime, it is a near certainty thatits stock price will continueto decline and, thus, SHLDshouldbe shorted. 3 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sears-restructuring-vendors-idUSKBN16T31S, Retrieved4/26/2017
  • 4. 4 Neelam Desai DISCLAIMERS Noneof the informationor analysespresented in any part of this report are intendedto form the basisfor any investmentdecision, and nospecific recommendations for the intendedor unintendedrecipients are intended. Accordingly, nothingin this report constitutesinvestmentadviceor counsel or solicitation for investmentin any security- instead, this report merely indicates the views of why its authormay or may notdecide toengage in a specific transaction. Youabsolutely shouldnotbase any investmentdecision whatsoeveron the basisof what youhave read in this report, especially because yourinvestmentdecisions shouldbe madein the contextof yourown investmentobjectives, financial constraints, andtolerance for risk. Youshouldalso understandthat all investmentsare subject torisks andnone of the risksof any security havebeen discussedin thisreport. The authorof this report hashad noopportunity toreview suchobjectives, constraints, orrisk tolerance and, therefore, cannotprovide youwith advice. Therefore, you shouldnotrely on anythinginthis report to make any investmentdecision. Any and all people whoplayed any role in producingthisreport expressly disclaim any andall responsibility for any direct or consequentialloss or damageof any kindwhatsoever arising directly or indirectly from: (i) reliance on any informationcontained in this report, (ii) any error, omissionor inaccuracy in any such informationor (iii) any action resulting therefrom. All informationin this report is provided"asis" without warranties, expressed or implied, or representationsof any kind tothe fullest extent permissible underapplicable law, the author(s)will notbe liable for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of this information, orfor any direct, consequential, incidental, special or punitivedamagesthatmay arise out of use of this informationby youor anyoneelse, includingbut notlimited to lostprofits, lossof opportunities, tradinglosses, anddamagethatmay result from any inaccuracy or him completenessof this informationto the fullest extent permittedby law. The author(s) will not be liable to youor anyoneelse underany tort, contract, negligence, strict liability, productsliability, or other theory with respect to this presentationof information. The information, opinions, data, quantitativeandqualitativestatementscontainedin this report havebeen obtainedfrom sources believed to be reliable buthave notbeen independently verified andare notguaranteed as to accuracy nordoes it purportto be a complete analysisof every material fact regarding the company, industry, orsecurity. The information, opinions, orrecommendationsaresolely for advisory andinformational purposesandare only valid asof the date appearingon the report andare subject tochange without notice. Statementsin this reportthat are not historical facts are "forward-lookingstatements" thatinvolverisksand uncertainties. "Forwardlooking statements" asdefined under Section27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21Bof the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 andthePrivate Securities Litigation Act of 1995 includewords such as "opportunities," "trends," "potential," "estimates," "may," "will," "could," "should," "anticipates," "expects" or comparableterminology or by discussionsofstrategy. These forward lookingstatementsare subject to a numberof knownand unknownrisksanduncertainties outsideof our controlthat could cause actual operations or results todiffer materially from thoseanticipated. Factors thatcould affect performance include, butare not limited to, thosefactors that are discussedin each profiled company'smostrecent reportsor registration statementsfiled with the SEC. Investorsshouldconsiderthesefactors in evaluating the forward looking statementsincluded in thisreport and notplace unduereliance uponsuchstatements. Investorsare encouragedto read investmentinformationavailable at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRAat http://www.finra.org.