BlackSwanTradingTM 22feb16

“
Page 1 of 9 February 2016 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM
Update
22 February 2016
Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three
continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1
.
Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses
value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end
of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better
than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.
The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve
suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got
pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early avuncular advice from Fed. Now finally a
tentative rate rise feels out if recovery is real in the real economy.
Two and a half years late Uncle Draghi is now leading that charge to easing. Xi and Putin are
pondering how they will rule the mountains, valleys, even the Black and China Seas. Saud and
Khomeini divide the sands, as 2/3rds of mankind bow their heads to Abraham’s God. Greek flirts
with the dancing Bear while Merkel gets brushed aside as the Euro banks ease the pains. Christine
Lagarde has had a moral conversion and presses for some jubilee.
On years of debate the Financial Stability Board under Mark Carney has realized its remit and
declared risk models of deposit insured retail banking go back to the medieval era practice of
retaining more than 1/7th
reserve2
for absorbing Bad Risks they have put on their ledgers. History
proves that high ratio worked to prevent imprudent bank calamity. Meanwhile our real economy is
hard at its work to absorb imprudences, exceed population growth and save for a hopeful return.
The market mavens are always, ‘surprised’ again, it is their stock response. Consumers were
demanding, firms were not reversing their balance sheet cash loads. Firms that have not found their
way to innovate, have chosen to aggregate. At high cash and low rates many have chosen to buy-
back stock, as confirmed in scooping their stock-options their moral hazard gets rewarded, again.
The paid by the word business model pundits wrote lots, like arm-chair quarterbacks. The gossips
never knew and never do. We have a guidepost, Risk Price (SF), we know where we are and, when
and where to go. Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
In 2012 as open handed ‘Truth or Dare’ display of our methods from then current identified
monthly crop of new “likeables” we partitioned from NYSE the Solo50KTM
portfolio for a select
group of self-employed entrepreneurs. Solo-50K portfolio results from US tax law amendments3
to
encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when their hay is high.
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

“
Update
22 February 2016
Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on her fund managers two years ago.
We sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our
portfolio we called the Solo50KTM
we had prior devised to help self employed heroines in our
circle of readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM
or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini,
perhaps a more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM
counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.4
Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15
@RealMilaKunis
Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR
CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks
Note Solo50KTM
had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as
BSTTM
for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but
allocated BSTTM
it has posted 66.93% gain since, with NO CHANGES. That is disregarding our
stoploss settings that had kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in 26 months, to June 2015..
We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead of
collaring options as we prefer)5
BSTTM
as SOLO50K Solo50KTM
had made a nice 103.58% in 30
months. That was an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our 12 year test on the DJI.
But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM
. The original Solo50KTM
had been sent prior to the
attention of a public service endowment frantic to rebuild its capital which had declined further
18% under ‘active management’ since the 2009 plunge. Their remit was threatened. They may wish
they had known sooner of our work based in new theory of the firm that proves in real markets.
Quantitative Eating was an unusual time. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at 12966
03dec2012. That rate is not likely to be repeated even if Draghi uses QE. Conventional bleating of
the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame, to make money, for you.
With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.
What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global
reality. Fund managers are just used equities traders who know little more than pretense, for
unworthy fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.
Financial industry advisors are schooled sellers of financial products to
exploit small investor savings for their taking fees. They are not changing
their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the “regular courses”
required by a self-regulated industry driven only their creative sales fiction.
Seemingly, certification requires intensive study in the key tools of
Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge, Mystification and Derogation.
Humm, that sounds familiar.
“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.
“What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to

“
Update
22 February 2016
begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and
Derision.”
The larger your “likeables” portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as
proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite
on DJI6
. and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener7
. Our work stands on giants, insights
of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables” behaviour is proof.
That proven behaviour of our portfolios, fund managers like CPPIB8
can afford to ignore as
politicians demand you must trust to invest even double-up donations in their proven failures.
Donations to their failure have already doubled since I was legally required to start paying 45 years
ago. Wall Street9
does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough10
?
Convention does not comprehend our “likeables” behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver11
. But,
they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum12
they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.
On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats. The managers of
pensions, insurance and other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not
know which way that flat-world view of theirs turns, but churning your money works for their
salaries, just not yours. Quantitative Eating ‘treacle-down’ just capitalized sticky fingers gaming
US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ hoping to earn income on savings.
Our public portfolios are proof, you can.. Extending our proprietary information as charity suiting
small savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM
allows you invest in your children’s education,
TaxCharityTM
allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, you can.
Our public portfolios do better because we can with our new theory of the firm. We seek accredited
investors to advance what we have proven. We show proof in our methods, in real time portfolios.
BlackSwanTradingTM
is a study in passivity. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in
01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 30.7 months. These many months market prices had to
give-up the bloat of QE. but risk averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies and are coming back.
Portfolios Update List – 22 November 2015
BlackSwanTradingTM
(Solo 50K on NYSE)
just the equities of "likeables" Firms
Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.
Assurant Inc. ($topLoss 10oct14) 70.59 AIZ:US 61 67.8
Avery Dennison Corp. ( 65.03 AVY:US 47 62.8
Boston Scientific Corp. 17.26 BSX:US 13 16.7
Comerica Inc. 35.56 CMA:US 43 32.7
Dow Chemical Co. 47.89 DOW:US 44 44.8
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 29.90 GT:US 24 28.4
Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (takenover by M&T) 10.12 HCBK:US

“
Update
22 February 2016
Linear Technology Corp . 43.54 LLTC 42 41.8
Lincoln National Corp. 36.72 LNC:US 48 33.8
Nabors Industries Ltd. 7.31 NBR:US 19 5.8
New York Times Company 12.80 NYT 12 12.4
NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYX
Oracle Corp. 37.11 ORCL:US 37 35.6
Sysco Corp, 42.79 SYY:US 32 41.9
Teco Energy Inc 27.54 TE:US 18 26.3
Terex Corp 23.25 TEX:US 36 21.2
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 64.1 TSN:US 35 61.5
Unum Group 28.03 UNM:US 22 26.6
Waste Management Inc. 56.18 WM:US 40 54.8
(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)
BlackSwanSleepingTM
Portfolio Value
(incl. Dividends) 22 September 2015 / 30 November 2012
68596.50 / 43465.00 Gain 38.7
months
56.49%
Current Cash
(ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13 HCBK takeniver)
Dividends earned
5541.00
4113.50
IRR pa 14.90%
Current Cash 9651.50
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational
market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q3-2015. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without
regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended
but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.
We have progressively tightened our stoploss settings to less than a standard deviation on a 52 week rolling
range13
of a stock’s price. That does incur an added ‘churn’ cost of buying after selling at the triggered
stoploss setting. That is a consequence of exercising Capital Safety. There are benefits to doing that.
If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you
gained a tidy 56.49% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 38.7 months, a net 14.90% IRR p.a. gain,
you got $9,651.50 cash in your wallet and now rockets return and land on earth, standing-up.
In the long haul all but 2 of these 19 ‘likeables’rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant
positive markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work
in a mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over the past year, on newspeak
unrelated to the real economy. Managers make 90% of trading but they never know which way to go.
Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss set only on quarterly basis
gained 91.56% more at the end of 38.7 months for little effort by our model small investor managing their
personal savings portfolio only once each month and still over that interval including the last rough 6
quarters negative volatility they obtained 79.11% achieving 19.26% IRR. That is very likeable.

“
Update
22 February 2016
That demonstrated yield of 19.36% IRR p.a. is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk
averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM
. Investors need to know Risk Price.
Solo 50K on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 22jan16 *100 shares each
Analog Devices Inc. ($49.3 StopLoss 08feb16) 49.30 ADI:US 47 50.0
Autodesk Inc. ($46.6 StopLoss 05feb16) 46.60 ADSK:US 45 47.1
AFLAC Inc. (N* $59.7 stepout 22feb16) 58.90 AFL:US 58 57.6
Avery Dennison Corp 65.03 AVY:US 47 62.8
BB&T Corp. ($31.2 StopLoss 03feb16) 31.20 BBT 38 31.7
Big Lots Inc 38.11 BIG:US 38 36.0
Diamond Foods Inc. ($37.2 StopLoss 28jan16) 37.20 DMND 21 34.0
AGL Resources Incorporated 64.75 GAS:US 45 62.5
Hartford Financial Services 42.50 HIG:US 24 40.6
Jarden Corp. ($49.2 StopLoss 08feb16) 49.20 JAH:US 46 50.8
KLATencor Corp. 66.14 KLAC:US 55 63.2
Paychex Inc. ($46.7 StopLoss 08feb16) 46.70 PAYX:US 38 50.1
Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($40.4 StopLoss 08feb16) 40.40 PF:US 28 40.1
TE Connectivity Ltd. ($56.0 StopLoss 27jan16) 56.00 TEL:US 35 55.9
Total System Srvs Inc, ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) 42.80 TSS:US 30 40.1
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 February 2016 / 30 November 2012
77848.10 / 43465.00 Gain 39.7
months
79.11%
IRR pa 19.26%
Current Cash (after 22jan16 buy-ins 61.00
Net Cash (after StopLoss *100 shares 460.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 521.00
Buy-ins 22feb16 *100 shares each
Conagra Foods Inc 41.91 CAG:US 29 40.4
Comcast Corp. 58.15 CMCSA:US 50 56.1
CMS Energy Corp 39.68 CMS:US 27 38.7
Deluxe Corporation 55.55 DLX 47 53.1
Diamond Foods Inc 36.15 DMND 21 34.0
Fidelity National Information Services 59.99 FIS:US 50 57.9
Edison International 64.24 EIX 46 62.3
International Paper Co 34.35 IP:US 34 31.1
Kroger Company 38.27 KR:US 22 36.4

“
Update
22 February 2016
Masco Corp 27.79 MAS:US 20 26.5
Net Cash Forward 22jan16 *100 shares 283.00
Dividends earned 4304.10
Total Cash Available 4587.10
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 February 2016 / 30 November 2012
77848.10 / 43465.00 Gain 39.7
months
79.11%
IRR pa 19.26%
Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat has made unusual down-side
volatility in all markets this past year. To that adjustment now older Greece and newer China
issues added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered again in January by a
trope of managers who cannot figure out where they are, as in September November and
December. Fundamentals of consumer spending, cars and house prices all rose while the managers
threw your money on the dice floor. We can buy back “likeables” at lower prices and recover.
Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value
investing14
. Our tighter $toploss values reduce risk of loss. All of the stocks in our public
portfolios15
simply rebounded. Most, can still be bought back for less than they stopped out weeks
ago even as those regained 20% faster than the market. Take the bonus and buy those back. Two
went under our failsafe bar of Risk Price defining “likeables” but some some risers replaced those
and boosted the number of equities to improve distribution.
Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, instead of working
at what you know you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but it
requires a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.
Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is not time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values to
recover, but again we must rebuild for gain hopeful calmer markets will soon return. Price has no
mass - gossip fluctuates and gyrates like a dervish, gravity less so but we know more about it.
Most of America is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of
infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the
political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other
peoples abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.
The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in
hard times when innovation and productivity are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in
valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. Austerity the FSB sees as
necessary in restraint of retail bank reserves limits imprudence by moral hazard of bankers but
reduces the amount of available ‘credit float’ from real economy enterprises creating worth and

“
Update
22 February 2016
wealth in their business process, making ‘money’ to put in all our pockets and allocate as we wish
or save in ‘likeable’ equities hopeful of gaining better income than our labour alone provides.
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Automatic Data Processing Inc. 86.4 ADP:US 77 82.9
Big Lots Inc 38.11 BIG:US 38 36.0
Conagra Foods Inc 41.91 CAG:US 29 40.4
Diamond Foods Inc 36.15 DMND 21 34.0
NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 63.55 NDAQ 35 61.3
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00
See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 22jan16*100 shares each
Ameren Corp 46.23 AEE:US 38 45.1
Allegion PLC ($58.2 StopLoss 03feb16) 58.20 ALLE:US 50 59.2
Broadcom Corp. ($54.67 BRCM buys-in shares 29jan16) 54.67 BRCM 41 52.5
Conagra Foods Inc. 41.91 CAG:US 29 40.4
Campbell Soup 60.75 CPB 37 59.2
Delta Air Lines Inc. ($44.7 stopLoss 27jan16) 44.70 DAL 40 46.4
Dow Chemical Co. ($41.1 stopLoss 20jan16) 41.10 DOW:US 44 44.8
E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.0 stopLoss 29jan16) 23.00 ETFC:US 18 21.8
Fortune Brnds Hm. & Scty Inc. ($46.8 stopLoss 20jan16) 46.80 FBHS:US 30 48.2
General Mills Inc 58.37 GIS 50 56.9
Givaudan SA ADR 37.83 GVDNY:US 27 36.9
Mondelez International Inc. ($39.9 stopLoss 03feb16) 39.90 MDLZ:US 30 38.1
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 64.10 TSN:US 35 61.5
Total System Services Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) 42.80 TSS:US 30 40.1
Texas Instruments Inc. 53.30 TXN:US 36 51.2
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 February 2016) / 15 September 2013
72822.20 / 50912.00 Gain 29.3
months
43.02%
IRR pa 15.78%
Current 2013 Cash (after 22jan16 buy-ins*) 121.00 (*corrected by $12.00 error 22jan16)
Net Cash (StopLoss sales) *100 shares 35117.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 35238.00
Buy-ins 22jan16*100 shares each
Ameren Corp 46.23 AEE:US 38 45.1
American Electric Power Company 62.85 AEP 38 61.3
Cavium Incorporated 57.23 CAVM:US 40 54.1
Cablevision Systems Corporation 32.53 CVC:US 17 30.6
E Trade Financial Corp 22.80 ETFC:US 18 21.8

“
Update
22 February 2016
Mondelez International Incorporated 39.70 MDLZ:US 30 38.1
Patterson Companies Inc 45.36 PDCO 38 43.3
Sealed Air Corp 44.86 SEE:US 30 42.4
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 February 2016 / 15 September 2013
72822.20 / 50912.00 Gain 29.3
months
43.02%
IRR pa 15.78%
Net Cash Forward 22oct15 *100 shares 82.00
Dividends earned 1335.15
Total Cash Available 1417.15
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such
irrational market mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred
as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs were recorded in
markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must rebuild the portfolio
from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not
pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, most rebounded above their Risk Price
and $topLoss, some are clearly ‘laggards’needing to be shunned. However one sees clear example of our
‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets with Solo50K BSTTM
continued gaining. Now as
market behaviours shift sharply up and down risk aversion pays with less risk and better gains.
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss,
not adding value. They cannot tell of a fair price or value. Nonsense told often enough can even
become politically correct.
Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and
Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk
and AlphaSmartTM
high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital.
Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our
method is proven. Because we can, you can16
.
In our Modal Geometry17
theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is
owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).

“
Update
22 February 2016
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers
relation to balance sheets as business process18
adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology,
and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM
portfolios performances.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables”
tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our
TaxCharityTM
and BookBuilderTM
portfolios continued gain.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
1
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
2
http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-
from.html
3
http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm
4
http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/
5
http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/
6
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji
7
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12
8
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/
9
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/
10
http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/
11
https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi
12
http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/
13
http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/
14
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
15
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
16
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
17
“The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006, unpublished but available
from the author.
18
http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

BlackSwanTradingTM 22feb16

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