BlackSwanTradingTM 22sep16

“
Page 1 of 12 September 2016 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
Defend Your Capital, BlackSwanTradingTM
Update
22 September 2016
Equities trading above our benchmark Risk Price (SF) are those liked by investors, as two of three
continue to price rise due to investors’ preference. These equities we call “likeables.” They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital1
.
Cash must be engaged in the economy in business ideas with valiant balance sheets or it loses
value. That is simple fact. For small savings it is needful but arbitrary you feed at the low price end
of "likeables" we find in balance sheets. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better
than cash. Risk Aversion, Capital Safety and Liquidity in ‘likeables’ we prove works for you.
The US markets particularly well fed on Quantitative Eating courtesy of the Federal Reserve
suddenly lost their expectations. The markets are always expectant mooing for fodder. They got
pooped when the forced feeding ended, despite early avuncular advice from Fed. Now finally a
tentative rate rise feels out if recovery is real in the real economy, not sooner than later.
Two and a half years late Uncle Draghi is now leading that charge to easing. Xi and Putin are
pondering how they will rule the mountains, valleys, even the Black and China Seas. Saud and
Khomeini divide the sands, as 2/3rds of mankind bow their heads to Abraham’s God. Greek flirts
with the dancing Bear while Merkel gets brushed aside as the Euro banks ease the pains. Christine
Lagarde has had a moral conversion and presses for some jubilee, before heading to court.
On years of debate the Financial Stability Board under Mark Carney has realized its remit and
declared risk models of deposit insured retail banking go back to the medieval2
era practice of
retaining more than 1/7th
reserve3
for absorbing Bad Risks they have put on their ledgers. History
proves that high reserves worked to prevent imprudent bank calamity. Meanwhile our real economy
is hard at its work to absorb imprudences, exceed population growth and save for a hopeful return.
Consumers were demanding, firms were not reversing their balance sheet cash loads. Firms that
have not found their way to innovate, have chosen to aggregate. At high cash and low interest rates
many choose to buy-back stock, as confirmed in scooping their stock-options their moral hazard
gets rewarded, again. The market mavens are always, ‘surprised’ again, it is their stock response.
The paid by the word business model pundits wrote lots, but as gossips never knew and never do
know, they are just highly motivated guessers. We have a guidepost, Risk Price (SF), we know
where we are and, when and where to go. Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
In 2012 as open handed ‘Truth or Dare’ display of our methods from then current identified
monthly crop of new ‘likeables’ we partitioned from NYSE the Solo50KTM portfolio for a select
group of self-employed entrepreneurs. Solo-50K portfolio results from US tax law amendments4
to
encourage saving by the self-employed especially during years when their hay is high.
Many may recall the rightly famous Black Swan crying fowl on her fund managers three years ago.
We sent her a Tweet 15 April 2013 to calm her down to our methods. We introduced her to our
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803

“
Update
22 September 2016
portfolio we called the Solo50KTM we had prior devised to help self employed heroines in our
circle of readers. We can call it the BlackSwanTradingTM or, in all respect to Noriel Roubini,
perhaps a more topical name suits BloodySlowTradingTM counterpoints Wall Street Pumpers.5
Hans Goetze @HansGoetze Apr 15
@RealMilaKunis
Solo50Kportfolio:AIZ,AVY,BSX,CMA,DOW,GT,HCBK,LLTC,LNC,NBR,NYT,NYX,OR
CL,SYY,TE,TEX,TSN,UNM,WM=123.15%@19wks
Note Solo50KTM had already made a 23.15% gain in the prior ‘hot’ 19 weeks. So, we reset it as
BSTTM for Ms. Kunis. If Ms. Kunis was not just clawing air time dollars from her followers but
allocated BSTTM it has posted 74.50% gain since, with NO CHANGES. That is disregarding our
stoploss settings that had kicked out all but 3 of the original 19 stocks in 26 months, to June 2015.
We prefer capital safety, from very slow trading. With risk averse stoploss settings (instead of
collaring options as we prefer)6
BSTTM as Solo50KTM had made a nice 103.58% in 30 months.
That was an annual 32.89% internal rate of return, well above our 12 year test on the DJI.
But wait, there is more to Solo50KTM. The original Solo50KTM had been sent prior to the
attention of a public service endowment frantic to rebuild its capital which had declined further
18% under ‘active management’ since the 2009 plunge. Their remit was threatened. They may wish
they had known sooner of our work based in our new theory of the firm that proves in real markets.
Quantitative Eating was an unusual time. Most everyone has forgotten the DJI was at 12966
03dec2012. That market growth rate out stripping GDP is not likely repeated as Draghi uses QE.
Conventional bleating of the ‘dollar-per-word” industry called 2014 too volatile and 2015 too lame,
to make money, for you. With our “likeables” you can save your own bacon. You have proof.
What proof does convention offer? Yup, that is an oxymoron. Convention is flat-landers in a global
reality. Fund managers are just used equities traders who know little more than pretense, for
unworthy fee-taking so that none is ever left for you. Do not give those Artful Dodgers your wallet.
Financial industry advisors are schooled sellers of financial products to
exploit small investor savings for their taking fees7
. They are not
changing their tools or sharpening those they have. They took the
“regular courses” required by a self-regulated industry driven only their
creative sales fiction8
. Seemingly, certification requires intensive study
in the key tools of Rhetoric - Adumbration, Subterfuge, Mystification
and Derogation. Humm, that sounds familiar.
“I only took the regular courses,” sighed the Mock Turtle.
“What was that?” inquired Alice. “Reeling and Writhing, of course, to
begin with, and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition,
Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”

“
Update
22 September 2016
The larger your “likeables” portfolio will tend to average 26% per annum Internal Rate of Return as
proven through the two recessions of the past 13 years. See our articles StockTakers’ 2012Q1 bite
on DJI9
. and The Counter Culture: Case for a Can Opener10. Our work stands on giants, insights
of three very different laureates, and evidence as our “likeables” behaviour is proof.
That proven behaviour of our portfolios, fund managers like CPPIB11 can afford to ignore as
politicians demand you must trust to invest even double-up donations in their proven failures.
Donations to their failure have already doubled since I was legally required to start paying 45 years
ago. Wall Street12
does not understand value or even price. When is any stock cheap enough13
?
Convention does not comprehend our ‘likeables’ behaviour as hedge funds fail to deliver14. But,
they are still skimming purses. Bonds are oh-so-ho-hum15
they do not know how to ‘fix-it’ either.
On gossip hem and haw the markets bounced and yawed with all the boats. The managers of
pensions, insurance and other equity pools trade accounts for 90% of the market, but they do not
know which way that flat-world view of theirs turns, but churning your money works for their
salaries, just not your income. Quantitative Eating ‘treacle-down’ just capitalized sticky fingers
gaming US markets, not consumers ‘getting-on-with-their-lives’ hoping to earn income on savings.
Our public portfolios are proof, we can. Extending our proprietary information as charity suiting
small savers’ needs in our BookBuilderTM allows you invest in your children’s education,
TaxCharityTM allows you invest in your retirement income needs. Because we can, you can too.
Our public portfolios do better because we can with our new theory of the firm. We seek accredited
investors to whom we can offer StockTakers 12% Bond16
advancing what we have proven, we do
the work. We show proof in our methods, in real time portfolios.
BlackSwanTradingTM
is a study in passivity. Managed with our stoploss controls from the start in
01dec12 it showed gain of 103.58% for 43.7 months. These past 21 months’ of mugwumps mauling
market prices had to give-up the bloat of QE, with managers claiming need of switching to bonds to
generate their incomes from churning client cache17
. No crisis, no fees is their mantra. But risk
averse ‘likeables’ have nice tendencies and are very likeably coming back to current near doubling.
Portfolios Update List – 22 September 2016
BlackSwanTradingTM (Solo 50K on NYSE)
just the equities of "likeables" Firms
Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
Buy-ins 01December 2012 and held, no stoploss used and portfolio left untended.
Assurant Inc. 91.28 AIZ:US 61 84.0
Avery Dennison Corp. 78.84 AVY:US 47 72.5
Boston Scientific Corp. 23.73 BSX:US 13 21.4
Comerica Inc. 46.74 CMA:US 43 42.1
Dow Chemical Co. 52.56 DOW:US 44 49.4
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 32.42 GT:US 24 29.8
Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (takenover by M&T 02dec15) 10.12 HCBK:US

“
Update
22 September 2016
Linear Technology Corp. 59.03 LLTC 40 53.7
Lincoln National Corp. 46.65 LNC:US 48 41.1
Nabors Industries Ltd. 10.44 NBR:US 19 8.2
New York Times Company 12.42 NYT 12 11.9
NYSE Euronext (Price 15nov13 at ICE Takeover) 45.29 ICE/NYX
Oracle Corp. 39.51 ORCL:US 37 37.5
Sysco Corp. 50.02 SYY:US 32 46.0
Teco Energy Inc ($27.64 EMR takesover TE 30jun16) 27.64 TE:US
Terex Corp. 24.65 TEX:US 20 21.9
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 76.76 TSN:US 35 67.5
Unum Group 35.51 UNM:US 22 33.4
Waste Management Inc. 64.01 WM:US 47 58.9
(NB: stoploss settings not used to keep capital safe. We prefer risk aversion using collaring options)
BlackSwanSleepingTM Portfolio Value
(incl. Dividends) 22 September 2016 / 30 November 2012
81383.50 / 43465.00 Gain 45.7
months
87.24%
Current Cash
(ICE/NYX takeover 15nov13; HCBK takenover 02dec2015;
TE takenover 30jun16)
Dividends earned
8305.00
5022.50
IRR pa 17.90%
Current ‘Ready’ Cash, such a lot to be sitting
idle instead of making wealth in adding to your
portfolio, or BookBuilderTM’s for your
children
13327.50
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility in case of such irrational
market mavens’ pressures of Q3-2014 through Q1-2016. Irrationally volatile swings occurred without
regard for reason as stock prices sharply rebounded. Capital was defended by stoploss settings as intended
but you must rebuild the portfolio with successive replacement buy-ins as shown below.
If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but carried-on in a slumber as above, you
gained a tidy 87.24% for snoozing like Rip Van Winkle for 45.7 months, a net 17.90% IRR p.a. gain,
you got $13,327.50 (used-less) cash in your wallet and now rockets return and land on earth, standing-up.
In the long haul all but 2 of these 19 ‘likeables’ rebounded above their Risk Price and $topLoss in dominant
positive markets. However below one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’ 2 of 3 gain tendencies at work
in a mixed market that was strongly negative on ‘news’ without substance over these past 20 months, on
newspeak unrelated to business of firms in the real economy. Managers make 90% of trading but they never
know where they are or which way to go.
We have progressively tightened our stoploss settings to less than a standard deviation on a 52 week rolling
range18
of a stock’s price. That does incur an added ‘churn’ cost of buying after selling at the triggered
stoploss setting. That is a consequence of exercising Capital Safety. There are benefits to doing that.

“
Update
22 September 2016
Above no stoplosses were applied. Below we show the effect of the stoploss set only on quarterly basis
gained 31.94% more at the end of 45.7 months for little effort by our model small investor managing their
personal savings portfolio only once each month and still over that interval including the last rough 6
quarters negative volatility obtained 103.47% achieving 21.54 IRR p.a. That is very likeable.
That demonstrated yield of 21.54% IRR p.a. is further proof our Risk Price driven ‘likeables’ risk
averse discipline is Capital Safe, Liquid and AlphaSmartTM. Investors need to know Risk Price.
Solo 50K on NYSE ”likeables” Firms Market
Price
Symbol SF
(Risk Price)
Stop/Loss
See old posts for Buy-ins 01 December 2012 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 22jan16 *100 shares each
Analog Devices Inc. ($49.3 StopLoss 08feb16) ADI:US 52 59.9
Autodesk Inc. ($46.6 StopLoss 05feb16) ADSK:US 50 65.8
AFLAC Inc. (N* $59.7 stepout 22feb16) AFL:US 58 69.1
Avery Dennison Corp. 78.84 AVY:US 47 72.5
BB&T Corp. ($31.2 StopLoss 03feb16) BBT 38 35.9
Big Lots Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 18may16) BIG:US 38 44.0
Diamond Foods Inc. ($37.2 StopLoss 28jan16) DMND 21 0.0
AGL Resources Inc. ($65.97 SO takesover GAS 30jun16) GAS:US 45 0.0
Hartford Financial Srvs. ($42.1 StopLoss 27jun16) HIG:US 24 41.0
Jarden ($49.2 StopLoss 08feb16, NWL takesover 18apr16) JAH:US 46 0.0
KLATencor Corp. ($67.5 StopLoss 12aug16) KLAC:US 50 62.6
Paychex Inc. ($46.7 StopLoss 08feb16) PAYX:US 45 56.1
Pinnacle Foods Inc. ($40.4 StopLoss 08feb16) PF:US 28 46.0
TE Connectivity Ltd. ($56.0 StopLoss 27jan16) TEL:US 35 60.5
Total System Srvs Inc, ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) TSS:US 30 42.3
Buy-ins 22feb16 *100 shares each
Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) CAG:US 29 40.5
Comcast Corp. 67.30 CMCSA:US 50 63.9
CMS Energy Corp. ($38.7 StopLoss 02mar16) CMS:US 27 40.3
Deluxe Corporation 69.92 DLX 47 66.4
Diamond Foods Inc. (LNCS acquires DMND 01mar16) DMND 21 0.0
Fidelity National Infrmtn Srvs ($57.9 StopLoss 24feb16) FIS:US 50 72.1
Edison International ($68.7 StopLoss 22mar16) EIX 58 70.2
International Paper Co 47.91 IP:US 35 43.1
Kroger Company ($35.6 StopLoss 22mar16) KR:US 22 28.3
Masco Corp. ($30.6 StopLoss 29apr16) MAS:US 20 30.9
Buy-ins 22mar16 *100 shares each
Linear Technology Corp. ($43.7 StopLoss 04may16) LLTC 40 53.7

“
Update
22 September 2016
Sysco Corp 50.02 SYY:US 32 46.0
Total System Services Inc. ($47.6 StopLoss 16aug16) TSS:US 30 42.3
Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares
Edison International 75.51 EIX 58 70.2
Kroger Company 30.75 KR:US 22 28.3
Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares each
Iron Mountain Inc. 37.42 IRM:US 29 34.1
ProLogis Inc. 54.39 PLD:US 34 50.6
Rofin-Sinar Technologies Inc. 32.37 RSTI:US 20 29.8
Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares each
American Electric Power Co. ($66.2 StopLoss 16aug16) AEP 53 61.9
Bank of New York Mellon Corp 40.35 BK:US 35 38.3
Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each
Mondelez International Inc. 43.37 MDLZ 40 40.3
Altria Group Inc. 64.12 MO 50 59.6
ServiceNow Inc. 77.92 NOW 57 69.3
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 September 2016 / 30 November 2012
87043.10 / 43465.00 Gain 45.7
months
100.26%
IRR pa 20.00%
Current Cash (after 22aug16 buy-ins 156.00
Net Cash (after StopLoss *100 shares 4420.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 4576.00
Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares each SF
(Risk Price)
Stoploss
Conagra Foods Inc. 43.59 29 40.5
Net Cash Forward 22may16 *100 shares 156.00
Dividends earned 5255.60
Total Cash Available 5411.60
If you used $4591.00 ‘idle’ cash in your cache,
for which 22jun16 you did add a 100 block of
Xylem Inco. to your growing wealth cache,
29aug16, gave you $0.155 dividend too!
Hum …14.95% gain in three months, is very
nice! Very likeable as we prefer!
51.05 XYL:US 32 47.9
Solo 50K 2012 Portfolio Value (StopLoss tended -
incl. Dividends) 22 September 2016 / 30 November 2012
87043.10 / 43465.00 Gain 45.7
months
100.26%
IRR pa 20.00%

“
Update
22 September 2016
Removal of Quantitative Eating combined with oil and gas bloat made unusual down-side
volatility in all markets this past 2 years. To that adjustment older Greece and newer China issues
added spooky gossip, a ‘sea-change’, of stoplosses were triggered by a trope of managers who
cannot figure out where they are.
Fundamentals of consumer spending, cars and house prices all rose while the managers threw your
money on the dice floor. We can buy back ‘likeables’ at lower prices and recover. Stock Prices
rebounded well above the prior stoploss again indicating less tight stops should be used again. The
normal mooing of herds grazing has returned. With our ‘likeables’ we can benefit most from the
fluttering of uncertainty in the market that is made by ‘active’ fund managers who have no
direction, no compass, as they lose the cache of their clients in their churn for their fees income.
Balance sheets did not flip-flop, but portfolio managers did, unrelated to ‘fundamentals’ of value
investing19
. Our tighter $toploss values reduced risk of loss while the bears grumbled. All of the
stocks in our public portfolios20
simply rebounded, much higher. Few can still be bought back for
less than they stopped out weeks ago even as the markets regain confidence. Take the bonus when
it is there and buy those back. Staying in the market gets the rise as the tide swell comes in.
Skimming for advantageous collaring options to protect your capital takes time, away from
working at what you know you do best. Collaring of options can be very useful in added gains but
it requires a lot more attention than small investors can lavish.
Stoploss is a simpler approach. It is time to loosen the easily managed $toploss values as positive
mooing returns, as the bears picnic, rebuild for gain as markets liquidity has returned. Price has no
mass - gossip fluctuates and gyrates like a dervish, gravity less so but we know more about it.
Most of the US is nearing NAIRU full employment. Political shift to fuller renewal of
infrastructure is now at forefront with income equality initiatives. All the ‘canards’ must walk the
political stage while the real economy slowly inches its recovery forward, while absorbing other
people’s abuse of ‘credit float’ in the sea of moral hazard they had created.
The reality that ‘treacle-down’ never worked is roosting, as much as, austerity is impoverishing in
hard times when innovation and productivity are needed to ‘credit float’ warranted investment in
valiant business processes and enterprises in the real economy. That is the expectation society has
of corporations given fictitious personhood in accepting as public liability for corporate risk of
failure that society will obtain benefits if corporate success is won. Society needs the collective use
of ‘credit float’. Society wants those risks for socio-economic benefits to all trading connections
for ‘credit float’ given to the federation of interests that is incorporated with the enterprise. How
the corporation is governed and the added value distributed is where we need to workout better.
Austerity the FSB sees as necessary in support of retail bank reserves to limit imprudence of moral
hazard by bankers, which they pay from their resources without the public purse. The high margins

“
Update
22 September 2016
bankers have imposed in recent years has reduced liquidity, damping markets instead of spurring,
the amount of ‘credit float’ available for real economy enterprises, creating worth and wealth in
their business process, making ‘money’ to put in all our pockets and allocate as we wish or save in
‘likeables’ equities hopeful of gaining better income than our labour alone provides.
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Analog Devices Inc 63.68 ADI:US 52 59.9
Automatic Data Processing Inc. 89.46 ADP:US 77 85.0
NASDAQ OMX Group Incorporated 70.44 NDAQ 35 64.1
Xylem Incorporated 52.62 XYL:US 32 47.9
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 limit 51000.00
See old posts for Buy-ins 15 September 2013 *100 shares each
Buy-ins 22jan16*100 shares each
Ameren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 38 47.3
Allegion PLC ($58.2 StopLoss 03feb16) ALLE:US 50 64.9
Broadcom Corp. ($54.67 BRCM buys-in shares 29jan16) BRCM 0.0
Conagra Foods Inc. ($44.2 StopLoss 09sep16) 44.20 CAG:US 29 40.5
Campbell Soup ($60.1 StopLoss 21apr16) CPB 37 51.0
Delta Air Lines Inc. ($44.7 stopLoss 27jan16) DAL 45 34.3
Dow Chemical Co. ($41.1 stopLoss 20jan16) DOW:US 44 49.4
E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.0 stopLoss 29jan16) ETFC:US 20 26.2
Fortune Brnds Hm. & Scty Inc. ($46.8 stopLoss 20jan16) FBHS:US 30 54.1
General Mills Inc. ($65.1 StopLoss 09sep16) 65.10 GIS 50 60.5
Givaudan SA ADR 41.31 GVDNY:US 30 38.8
Mondelez International Inc. ($39.9 stopLoss 03feb16) MDLZ:US 40 40.3
Tyson Foods Inc CL A 76.76 TSN:US 35 67.5
Total System Services Inc. ($42.8 StopLoss 27jan16) TSS:US 30 42.3
Texas Instruments Inc. 69.76 TXN:US 50 63.5
Buy-ins 22feb16*100 shares each 0.0
Ameren Corp. ($47.0 StopLoss 21apr16) AEE:US 38 47.3
American Electric Power Co. ($61.3 StopLoss 01mar16) AEP 53 61.9
Cavium Incorporated ($55.0 StopLoss 18apr16) CAVM:US 40 49.4
Cablevision Sys. Corp. (21jun16 CVC mergers private) CVC:US 17 0.0
E Trade Financial Corp. ($23.3 StopLoss 07apr16) ETFC:US 20 26.2
Mondelez International Inc. ($41.6 StopLoss 27jun16) MDLZ:US 40 40.3
Patterson Companies Inc. ($43.3 StopLoss 01mar16) PDCO 38 44.8
Sealed Air Corp. ($48.1 StopLoss 28apr16) SEE:US 30 43.0
Buy-ins 22mar16*100 shares each
Lululemon Athletica Inc. ($60.2 StopLoss 13may16) LULU:US 45 59.2
Southwest Airlines Co. ($42.9 StopLoss 04may16) LUV 39 34.0

“
Update
22 September 2016
Buy-ins 22apr16 *100 shares each
Ameren Corp 51.41 AEE:US 38 47.3
Bemis Co Inc. ($49.6 StopLoss 13may16) BMS 40 48.3
CBRE Group Inc. ($25.8 StopLoss 27jun16) CBG 28 26.4
First Cash Financial Serv. ($47.4 StopLoss 09sep16) 47.40 FCFS 40 43.6
Waste Management Inc. 64.01 WM:US 47 58.9
Buy-ins 22may16 *100 shares each
Bemis Co Inc 51.38 BMS:US 40 48.3
Southwest Airlines Co. (N* $36.28 StopLoss 22aug16) LUV:US 39 34.0
Altria Group Inc. 64.12 MO:US 50 59.6
Sealed Air Corp. ($43.4 StopLoss 27jun16) SEE:US 30 43.0
Buy-ins 22jun16 *100 shares each
Hormel Foods Corporation 37.75 HRL:US 25 33.2
Buy-ins 22jul16 *100 shares each
Lexmark International Inc CL A 35.99 LXK 35 31.7
Masco Corp 34.33 MAS:US 20 30.9
Maxim Integrated Products Inc. 39.25 MXIM 34 36.9
Buy-ins 22aug16 *100 shares each
Spectra Energy Corp 42.48 SE 25 37.8
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 September 2016 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013
79033.95 / 50912.00 Gain 36.3
months
55.22%
IRR pa 15.64%
Current 2013 Cash (after 22aug16 buy-ins) 200.00
Net Cash (StopLoss sales) *100 shares 15670.00
Current Cash pending Buy-ins *100 shares 15870.00
Buy-ins 22sep16 *100 shares each SF
(Risk Price)
Stoploss
Conagra Foods Inc. 43.59 CAG:US 29 40.5
General Mills Inc. 65.06 GIS 50 60.5
Pinnacle Foods Inc. 50.04 PF:US 28 46.0
Net Cash Forward 22may16 *100 shares 1.00
Dividends earned 2308.95
Total Cash Available 2309.95
That is ‘idle’ cash in your cache, for which if
you did consider adding a 100 block of
Inteliquent Incorporated.to your growing
wealth cache, Surprise, you got stopped out at
$18.50 02aug2016 but made $133.00 gain in
16.15
bought
back
22aug16 @
IQNT 11 13.8

“
Update
22 September 2016
one month, very nice!! Buy back at the better
current price of $15.31, it is still a ‘likeable’
for investing in itself and innovation of product
even if the mavens ‘expected’ better Q2 profit,
you snacked on Zacks bet and earned yourself
a nice bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages from
Zachy’s for your dinner.
Or, did you add to your cache from your
dividends cash by buying in another.
15.31
Jabil Circuit Inc. 22sep16
JBL bought-in 22 aug16 @20.93 to your cache
For a very nice $147.00, 7.02% gain in one month!
Goldman, Motley, Monkey and Zacks all came late
for the party. They get the leftovers.
But, you, Bubby Girrrly, you are buying another
bottle of 2009 Lynch-Bages at Zachy’s?
22.40
20.93
JBL 20 20.4
USA Solo ROTH/IRA 2013 Portfolio Value
22 September 2016 (dividends inclu.) / 15 September 2013
79033.95 / 50912.00 Gain 36.3
months
55.22%
IRR pa 15.64%
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such
irrational market mavens’ pressures trading on ‘newspeak’ and gossip. Irrationally volatile swings occurred
in the past 18 months as the stock prices sharply rebounded without regard for any real reason. New highs
were recorded in markets showing a 6% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must
rebuild the portfolio from capital protective $topLoss sales with successive replacement buy-ins as shown
above.
If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, grateful most rebounded
above their Risk Price and $topLoss, some are ‘zoomers’ some are clearly ‘laggards’ needing to be
shunned. However one sees clear example of our ‘likeables’2 of 3 tendency in wobbling mixed markets
with Solo50K BSTTM continued gaining. As market behaviours shifted sharply up and down risk aversion
pays with less risk and better gains. More stable trading seems to have returned, to contented mooing.
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. Because we can, you can, too.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in. At their best 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss,
not adding value, or covering inflation and their fees – you lose. They cannot tell of a fair price or
value. Nonsense told often enough can even become politically correct, even as legal sinecure.

“
Update
22 September 2016
Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and
Liquidity because we have proven our risk aversion works, consistently obtaining both low risk
and AlphaSmartTM
high gain. Our Risk Price is what investors must know to defend their capital.
Market behaviour prefers the “likeables” trading above Risk Price and bids up their price. Our
method is proven. Because we can, you can21.
In our Modal Geometry22
theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is
owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded by rigourous observation of corporate ledgers
relation to balance sheets as business process23 adds value. That is aided with logic, epistemology,
and some powerful mathematics. You have proof in these TaxCharityTM portfolios performances.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables”
tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 gaining for the long term. This we show proof positive, in our
TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios continued gain.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
647 608-2176
1
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
2
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/medieval-diet
3
http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/morning_call/2015/11/financial-stability-board-aims-to-stop-banks-
from.html
4
http://retireplan.about.com/od/401kplans/a/Solo-401-K-Contribution-Limits-2013.htm
5
http://riskwerk.com/2015/03/05/pi-the-razors-edge-the-market-bubble/
6
http://riskwerk.com/2013/08/10/the-sp-tsx-hangdog-market-3/

“
Update
22 September 2016
7
Leading proponent of Modern Portfolio Theory, Peter L. Bernstein disaffected realized it was exposing investors to risk while
productive way for making the professionals a living http://www.e-m-h.org/Bernstein1999.pdf
8
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/judge-by-company-they-keep
9
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stock-takers-2012-q1-bite-on-dji
10
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-case-for-the-can-opener-edufeb12
11
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/10/pi-cppib-2nd-quarter/
12
http://riskwerk.com/2013/11/15/bn-cpwr-compuware-corporation/
13
http://riskwerk.com/2014/10/10/bn-the-stock-market-is-always-cheap/
14
https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi
15
http://riskwerk.com/2014/09/29/bn-blackrocks-broken-bond-market/
16
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/stocktakers-12-bond 5 year, 15 million callable, paying 2.874% quarterly to
accredited investors http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/have-a-slice
17
https://riskwerk.com/2016/06/16/bn-the-w-syndrome/
18
http://riskwerk.com/2012/09/22/popovicius-volatility/
19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
20
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
21
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios
22
“The Modal Geometry of the Firm and the Balance Sheet Worth of the Trading Connections”, 2006.
23
http://riskwerk.com/2014/03/15/pi-the-process/

BlackSwanTradingTM 22sep16

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (7)

Similar to BlackSwanTradingTM 22sep16

Similar to BlackSwanTradingTM 22sep16 (16)

More from Hans Goetze

More from Hans Goetze (16)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

BlackSwanTradingTM 22sep16