SDR Report (2)

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 20151
Economic Development Policy and Research Department
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
REPORT
Uganda’s Aspiration for Middle-Income Status:
Strategies for Sustainable Land Use and Management
2015
THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 2
Empowered lives.
Resilient nations.

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 i
Uganda’s Aspiration for Middle-Income Status: Strategies for
Sustainable Land Use and Management
2015
Economic Development Policy and Research Department
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT REPORT
THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDA

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015ii
Foreword
The United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) is proud to have partnered with the Ministry
of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
(MoFPED) in producing the Sustainable Development
Report (SDR). The first of many series, this report comes
at a major turning point in the government’s drive to
pursue a national sustainable development agenda
within the framework of Uganda’s Vision 2040.
The theme of this report discusses a pertinent element
of sustainable development in Uganda - land. In
an agro-based economy, land is one of the most
critical components of sustainable development. It
is where most of Uganda’s production takes place
subsequently providing a source of livelihood for the
largest segment of the population. Progress in all
dimensions will therefore depend on how the legal,
policy and institutional frameworks are positioned to
optimise the use of this resource.
In addition to the efficient use of the land resource,
government efforts should also focus on enhancing
the capabilities of the country’s growing population,
one of its greatest resources. These capabilities will
help to unleash the potential embodied in the high
levels of human capital that characterise the country.
The SDRs therefore provides a window of opportunity
to assess, and where required, redirect national
development efforts and thinking to focus on
the available opportunities such as the land for
production, the young and energetic population as
well as the fast evolving technologies that can be
used to fast track development. To achieve this, we
require a change of paradigm that facilitates us to
overcome development challenges before they
manifest. This calls for intellectual leadership that can
be steered by knowledge products of this kind and
the actions that follow from their recommendations.
The SDRs will also provide a platform to expound
on Uganda’s development policy debate beyond
the lifespan of the new Agenda 2030 and its 17
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) whose
reporting mechanism is still being planned by the
Government.
Lasting partnerships are required to deliver on
sustainable development pathways. In this regard,
UNDP is proud to have partnered with MoFPED,
other government institutions, academia and
development actors in stimulating debate on
development challenges through a host of policy
dialogues and evidence based knowledge products
such as the Human Development Reports, Millennium
Development Reports, Poverty Status Reports, and
now the SDR.
In this era of the 2030 agenda, UNDP will continue to
mobilise cutting-edge expertise from within the UN
system, across the region and globe in supporting
government to devise practical policy options that
lead to systemic change and create large-scale
impact.
Almaz Gebru
Country Director, UNDP

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 iii
Preface
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic
Development (MFPED) is mandated among
other things to formulate policies that enhance
national stability and development. In the spirit
of fostering home-grown policies and nationally
driven development initiatives, MFPED conceived
the Sustainable Development Report (SDR) series
in 2013 as a prime platform for facilitating and
communicating National understanding and debate
on frontier development policy issues and evidence.
The SDR series is a multi-disciplinary product that will
be published in three-year intervals. It aims to address
development issues pertinent to Uganda’s transition
and progression along the middle-income status
path over the Vision 2040 time horizon. MFPED plays
a lead role in Uganda’s economic development
policy and is aware of the ever growing need for a
holistic view in the treatment of societal, economic
and environmental development objectives in
its contribution to the management of Uganda’s
modernisation and transformation agenda. This
awareness evokes deeper policy analysis and
debate, and by extension superior policy evidence. It
is this call that the SDR series sets out to answer.
Coming at the dawn of the Post-2015 development
era, the SDR series is also positioned to serve as an
innovative policy tool for national engagement on
new and differing expectations associated with
economic integration and development cooperation
in the Post-Millennium Development Goals (MDG)
era. The SDR series will complement other flagship
publications including the Poverty Status Report,
the upcoming Private Sector Development Report
and the successor national report to the Millennium
Development Goals report under consideration.
Themed “Uganda’s Aspiration for Middle-Income
Status: Strategies for land Use and Management”,
this pioneer edition of the SDR paves way for the
kind of evidence and analysis that MFPED expects
to gain centre-stage in Uganda’s development
discourse over the medium and long-term. By placing
economic growth within the wider context of national
wealth, this report brings to the fore the imperative
of diversifying Uganda’s production base in tandem
with its demographic and human capital profile.
This report has benefited from a cross-section of
disciplines and expertise from both the public and
private sector. I am confident it will serve as a vital
resource for national reflection on the important
subject of land use as we join forces to propel the
country’s transformation into a higher middle income
status by 2040.
I thank my technical staff for their proactive
technical leadership in the preparation of this report.
My appreciation also goes to the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) in Uganda for its
financial support in this regard.
Keith Muhakanizi
Permanent Secretary/Secretary to the Treasury

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015iv
Executive Summary
Motivation for the Uganda Sustainable Development Report 2015
This report examines the context of sustainable
development for Uganda, with a thematic focus on
land use and land management practices. Land is
Uganda’s prime and critical asset in development
and thus a central issue in the country’s policy
and development context. The way it is used and
managed will play a key role in the achievement
of the country’s vision. With agriculture continuing
to be a sector of strategic importance for
Uganda’s socio-economic transformation,
improving land use and management constitutes
a key development priority and a determinant of
Uganda’s aspiration to become an upper-middle
income country by 2040.
Although the thematic focus is on land, the report
takes a broader view and does not consider natural
capital in isolation. Sustainable development
requires Uganda to reduce its dependence
on land and other forms of natural capital. The
country’s productive base must be expanded
through investment in physical equipment and
machinery, the skills and technical know-how of
the growing labour force, and the development of
institutions to effectively govern social, economic
and political interactions. These new forms of
physical, human and intangible capital will often
be employed in the industrial and modern service
sectors. That way, the movement of labour from
agriculture to these higher-value activities will help
to reduce the pressure on the country’s finite land
resources. Economic diversification will be closely
related to changing settlement patterns. Greater
rural-to-urban migration and more concentrated
human settlements will in turn impact natural
ecosystems and economic productivity.
Main findings and conclusions
Uganda’s current development trajectory is
unsustainable, explaining the need for structural
transformation. Historically, Uganda was relatively
sparsely populated and land for agriculture was
therefore abundant. As a result, traditional farming
practices are characterised by the extensive use
and rapid depletion of land and the limited use
of other inputs. Following the rapid population
growth over recent decades, there is a risk Uganda
will continue down an unsustainable path where
continued environmental degradation undermines
economic progress which will only exacerbate
pressure on the country’s natural resource base.
Avoiding this scenario will require decisive action
to reverse current trends. Uganda must shift from
agricultural growth driven by the extension of
land under cultivation to use its limited land more
efficiently. If the current growth rate of around 1%
continues, more than 90% of land would be used
for agriculture by 2040. This is inconsistent with the
Vision 2040 objective to expand forest cover from
15% to 24% of the country’s land area.
Agriculturalproductivitygrowthwillbefundamental
for the realisation of Vision 2040. Uganda’s crop
productivity growth is on a downward trend and
has averaged only around 1% per year over the
last decade, compared to around 6% per year in
better-performing countries in the region. Reducing
the share of the labour force in agriculture to
31% as targeted by Vision 2040 will require a
dramatic and sustained turnaround in agricultural
productivity, to at least match the best-performing
countries in the region. Simulations made in this
report suggest that agricultural productivity may
be the most important factor determining the
extent of Uganda’s structural transformation
over the next 25 years. Without a turnaround in
agricultural performance, the economy will not be
able to support a large non-agricultural workforce
and structural change will be self-limiting. Strong
agricultural productivity growth on the other
hand will enhance rural incomes and increase the
demand for non-agricultural products. Although
the agricultural sector has low levels of productivity
it has the greatest potential and need for
productivity growth. Policy makers should not view
agriculture as lagging the rest of the economy, but
embrace the sector as the engine of the Uganda’s
overall development.

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 v
Land degradation is a major threat to agricultural
productivity. Agricultural practices do not only
impact Uganda’s natural ecosystems. Ecosystem
services are crucial for agricultural production
and the encroachment of cultivation into natural
ecosystems is itself severely undermining the
sustainability of agricultural growth. Deforestation
and reduced vegetation cover have reduced
the number and variety of soil organisms and
accelerated the erosion of fertile top soils.
Overgrazing of the cattle corridor has also
destroyed vegetation, exposing these areas
to greater water and wind erosion. Depleted
organic matter reduces agricultural productivity
by lowering the cation exchange capacity of the
soil. This leads to nutrient loss and also reduces the
effectiveness of inorganic fertilizers, which is an
important factor behind Uganda’s low fertilizer use
rate. Prudent ecosystem management to prevent
and reverse land degradation can thus serve both
environmental and economic objectives.
Strategies for improved land management will
be central in achieving the gains in agricultural
productivity required for Uganda’s progression
to upper-middle income status. Traditional
land management practices are in decline as
population pressure has reduced the practicality
of fallowing. The fragmentation of household
plots has also reduced the use of bulky and hard-
to-transport inputs such as manure and crop
residues. To avoid environmental and ultimately
economic catastrophe, Uganda’s agricultural
systems must shift from using land extensively to
using land intensively through the greater use
of modern inputs, higher-value crops, and soil
conservation measures among other strategies.
Inorganic fertilizers must continue to be promoted,
in combination with complementary organic
fertility management practices. In the many
areas with already depleted levels of organic
matter the returns to fertilizer use are low. In these
areas, organic soil fertility technologies – including
manuring, composting, mulching and planting
legumes for grain or fodder – are critical to improve
the nitrogen status and buffering capacity of
the soil in general, which will in turn increase the
effectiveness of chemical fertilizers. Organic and
inorganic fertility management are therefore
complementary rather than alternative strategies.
Environmental sustainability must be central to
the realisation of Uganda’s Vision 2040.Countries
that have undergone sustained economic
transformation have also preserved and gradually
increased the value of their natural resources. This
reflects mutual reinforcement between natural
capital and economic development. Ecosystem
services are critical determinants of productivity;
and the knowledge, institutions and resources
required to conserve and replenish natural wealth is
facilitated by higher income. Ugandan households
are often forced to prioritise their immediate needs
at the expense of environmental factors critical for
long-term development, as illustrated by the poor
land management practices among the majority
of smallholder farmers. The interdependence
between socio-economic development and
environmental sustainability can give rise to
a virtuous circle, with mutual reinforcement
between improved economic, environmental
and social conditions. However, investment in
poverty reduction and agricultural modernization
by itself is not sufficient to address the problem
of land degradation. Complementary strategies
that simultaneously reduce poverty and ensure
sustainable land management are required
to ensure the shift towards more intensive land
management that helps to build the long-term
health of Uganda’s natural capital stocks.
Government must take a long-term perspective
and find ways to alleviate short-term tradeoffs for
poor households. Efforts to promote or enforce land
conservation measures may increase agricultural
production in the long run, but reduce incomes
in the short run, because such measures require
scarce land and labour that may have produced
higher income if allocated for other activities. In
the longer term, however, land degradation is
likely to lead to further impoverishment, which
can only be averted through promotion of
conservation programmes. There is the need
to recognize and find ways to ameliorate such
negative tradeoffs where they occur. Poverty
reduction strategies being implemented through
agricultural modernization can achieve win-
win-win outcomes, simultaneously increasing
productivity, reducing poverty, and reducing
land degradation. Examples of such strategies
include promoting investments in soil and water

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015vi
conservation and agroforestry, which highlights
the importance of promoting organic soil fertility-
management practices in efforts to reduce land
degradation and poverty. Other strategies—such
as road development, encouragement of non-
farm activities, and promotion of rural finance—
also appear to have contributed to positive
outcomes without significant trade-offs.
Agricultural modernisation, the growth of non-farm
opportunities, and better functioning land markets
will enable more efficient settlement patterns.
Government has limited capacity to influence rural
settlement patterns directly. Although the Physical
Planning Act (2010) declared the whole country
a planning area, the capacity of local planning
authorities remains weak. Small upcountry towns
are critical for both the agricultural and non-
agricultural economies and must be allowed to
grow in an efficient way. These municipalities
require sufficient resources for physical planning
and greater powers to regulate land use. More
generally, land fragmentation and dispersed
settlement patterns are symptoms of Uganda’s
traditional agricultural systems, inadequate non-
farm opportunities, and inefficient land markets
under increased population pressures. Policies
should address these root causes of inefficiency,
rather than fixate on land fragmentation or
dispersed settlement patterns in themselves.
Government should avoid creating a national
settlement plan that would stand little chance of
being implemented. It would be more prudent to
develop a spatial strategy to provide practical
guidance to various Government agencies when
developing their individual sector plans. It is natural
and efficient for different regions of the country
to specialise along their areas of comparative
advantage. Government must continue to
improve connective infrastructure between
different regions, taking into account this pattern
of comparative advantage. Agro-ecological
zoning can also be strengthened by incentivizing
agribusinesses to develop linkages with farmer
organizations specialised in a particular crop or
commodity.
Policy recommendations
Futuregovernmenteffortstowardsreducingpoverty
must take into account sustainable land utilisation
and agricultural transformation. While government
has been successful in reducing the number of
people living in poverty; and the national poverty
rate fell to 19.7% in 2012/13 from 24.5% in 2009/10,
thegrowingpopulationandshortageofagricultural
land requires the integration of sustainable land
utilization and agricultural transformation in the
country’s poverty reduction agenda. Sustainable
land utilization requires adoption of integrated
ecosystem management. To facilitate agricultural
transformation, the government needs to foster
farmer organizations and increase its partnerships
with private actors. This will promote the integration
of smallholder farmers into larger value chains
and allow subsistence-oriented producers to
participate in a dynamic commercial economy,
enhancing rural incomes, productivity and
competitiveness.
Build climate change resilience through
promoting climate smart agriculture, ecosystem
Based adaptation, and green growth and green
development. The impacts of climate change pose
a serious challenge to the achievement of Vision
2040. The way land is used and managed needs
to respond to the challenges posed by climate
change through both adaptation and mitigation.
By supporting climate smart agriculture, ecosystem
based adaptation and promoting green growth
and green development, the country will be able
build the climate resilience that is needed to
sustain Uganda’s agricultural and socio-economic
transformation.
Enhance agro-ecological zoning and support
the implementation of ecologically compatible
agricultural systems and landuse practices. While
Uganda is already divided into 10 agro-ecological
zones, agriculture continues to be practiced
without taking into account ecologically
compatible cropping and animal rearing. To that
end, the government should continue to promote
the agro-ecological zones as they are essential in
incentivizing agro-processors to develop linkages
with farmer organizations. Agro-ecological zoning
can help to encourage farmer organizations

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 vii
specialize in a single crop or commodity thus
promoting large scale commercial farming that is
competitive.
Sustainable agriculture requires a more active
private sector and strong farmers organisations.
Promoting and supporting farmers organizations
and in particular farmers cooperatives is crucial
and can be easily achieved by building on the
emerging cooperative spirit especially through
SACCOs and strong farmers associations. The
farmer groups should adopt value chain processes
based on production, distribution, financing
and marketing. This requires extra support from
government to fund farmer field schools, provision
of agricultural loans and inputs at subsidized interest
rates, funding women agricultural entrepreneurship
schemes, facilitating agricultural marketing and
building community based storage facilities. It is
also essential to engage with the private sector
to explore and develop market opportunities
for agricultural products for small holder farmers.
This necessitates undertaking investments that
promote development of value chains including
construction of national silos, deliberate school
feeding programmes that require large volumes of
produce, and putting up agro-processing facilities
through public private partnerships. Construction
of storage facilities at community level to enable
the smallholders to bulk their produce before
marketing. This will reduce post-harvest losses that
are experienced at farm level.
Government needs to fully implement the Uganda
Land Use Policy. The effectiveness of smallholder
agriculture as an engine of growth and poverty
reduction is contingent on equitable distribution
of land. When land is distributed relatively evenly,
agricultural growth can be powerfully pro-poor.
Full implementation of the Uganda National
Land Policy could enhance land utilization for
development and discourage the practice
of holding large tracts of land for speculative
purposes while serious developers or landless
people are without access to land.
Address the challenge of counterfeits in order
to encourage the adoption of high value
agricultural inputs. While adoption of high value
crops and other agricultural inputs could bring
in high productivity and returns, the issue of
counterfeits remains a challenge. The limited
use of agricultural inputs and high prevalence of
counterfeits imply that addressing these related
problems offers tremendous potential for growth
in Uganda’s agricultural sector, and thus, the
prospects for development and socio-economic
transformation. The Uganda National Bureau
of Standards (UNBS) needs to be equipped to
enforce bans on the importation and sale of
substandard and counterfeit agro-inputs and
manufactured products. Besides, an independent
government agricultural standards agency could
be created to reduce the burden on UNBS. The
created agricultural standards agency would be
mandated among others, to provide information
on certified seed and technology stockists.
Promote and support payment for ecosystem
services schemes as a way of reducing
deforestation and forest degradation. Forest cover
is declining due to various factors but mostly on
account of agricultural expansion due to limited
off-farm opportunities and fuel wood consumption
especially charcoal. The government could
support payment for ecosystem services as an
incentive to encourage private forest owners to
maintain forests on their land.
Support the growing of energy crops and
promote efficient wood fuel efficient production
and utilisation technologies. The majority of the
population in Uganda uses biomass energy
and will continue doing so in the foreseeable
future. However, currently there are no significant
interventions to ensure a steady supply of wood
fuel apart from existing forests and woodlands.
Growing of energy crops and improving efficiency
in charcoal production and consumption should
be promoted.
Fast track the formulation and operationalisation
of the rangeland policy to contain rangeland
degradation. Currently, overgrazing and
overstocking are the major causes of rangeland
degradation. Effective extension services should
be provided to pastoral communities to address
plant invasion, promote adaptive rangeland
utilization and ensure sustainable productivity.
This requires fast tracking the formulation and

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015viii
operationalization of the rangeland policy which
would comprehensively address the challenges
afflicting rangelands.
Empower and support government agencies
responsible for environmental management to
implement and enforce environmental laws and
regulations. Uganda has put in place various
policies and laws to promote sound environmental
management but their implementation is still a
challenge. Responsible agencies mandated to
manage ecosystems need to be given better
political support and resources to implement their
mandates and this should be coupled with regular
and effective monitoring of their performance
in terms of accountability, transparency,
effectiveness, efficiency, equity and participation.
Improving the functionality of institutions requires
improving their technical and human capacity
through training and hiring of adequate staff
and required infrastructure to implement their
mandate.
Put in place and implement an overarching
human settlements policy and a human
settlements development plan. Uganda does not
have a human settlement policy that coherently
aligns and integrates other disparate policies for
a more sustainable urban and rural settlement
development approach. Thus the government
needs to initiate the formulation, development
and implementation of an integrative human
settlement policy and comprehensive national
human settlement development plan to guide
the development of new human settlements in
the urban and rural area. Equally important is to
develop and adopt the National Urban and Human
Settlement Planning Codes and Standards, which
standardize planning and include site planning
and environmental engineering.
Government should conduct a comprehensive
study that will develop a system of regrouping rural
settlements across the country. Regrouping human
settlement in rural areas on serviced sites equipped
with the basic infrastructure and community
amenities is essential and can promote rational
use of land. However, the government should be
conscious that regrouping of the rural population
in centralised villages can be very challenging.
Thus an extensive study should be conducted to
develop an appropriate system for regrouping
human settlement throughout the country and
providing amenities and basic infrastructure to
these settlements.
Promote the development of human settlements
based on economic activities. The Vision 2040
already prioritises the development of a national
settlement network of cities and urban centres as
poles of growth offering economic opportunities to
their citizens, attracting investment, and providing
services to support economic initiatives. To this
end, the government can promote and support
the development of settlements around economic
activities by creating Special Economic Zones. In
this endeavour, Uganda could emulate emerging
countries like China, Malaysia and Singapore that
that have attained high levels of urbanization
and development through integrated physical
planning and investment, and establishment of
commercial and industrial functional zones.
Interventions are required to control urban sprawl.
It is evident that Uganda’s urban areas are
growing rapidly and could become difficult to
manage if left to sprawl out of control. The central
government and local government authorities
need to act quickly to curtail the increasingly
uncontrolled spill-over of urban development into
the rural hinterlands, where vital resources such as
agricultural land, forests, wetlands and rangelands
are being degraded. Conversion of land for
urban development needs to be managed and
controlled accordingly to avert potential problems
like food insecurity. As a priority, the government
should be able to collaborate with the private
sector in housing and urban development. This
could be through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)
in housing, public infrastructure, and services.
The private sector is endowed with human
and financial resources which are attractive to
urbanization and rural settlement development to
complement government programs, projects and
resources. The collaboration with banks can play a
significant role in homeowner housing finance for
homeownership or rental.

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 ix
Table of Contents
Foreword ii
Preface iii
Executive summary iv
Table of contents ix
List of Tables xi
List of Figures xii
Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii
Map of Uganda xiv
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Purpose and Periodicity of the Sustainable Development Report 1
1.2 Methodology 2
1.3 Structure of the Report 2
1.4 Data and Indicators 3
2 MAPPING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN UGANDA 4
2.1 The Global 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 4
2.2 The Status of Characteristic Factors of Sustainable Development in Uganda 6
2.2.1 Economic growth and structural transformation 6
2.2.2 Population and Demographics 6
2.2.3 Human Development 7
2.2.4 Urbanisation for Sustainable development 9
2.2.5 Governance and institutional development 10
2.2.6 Environment and natural resources 11
3 Land Use and Management in Uganda 13
3.1 Introduction 13
3.2 Sustainable development and wealth accounting 13
3.3 Uganda’s productive assets 15
3.4 Why sustainable land use and management? 16
3.4.1 Land management and the environment 17
3.4.2 Land management and human settlements 17
3.5 Policy and institutional context 18
3.5.1 Land Policy 18
3.5.2 Land ownership and management 19
3.5.3 Agricultural policy 22
3.5.4 Ecosystem management policy framework 22
3.5.5 Settlement policy 24
3.6 Demographic and socio-economic context 25
3.7 Changing patterns of land use 27
3.7.1 National trends 27
3.7.2 Land access and use at household level 29
4 Land and Ecosystem Management in Uganda 32
4.1 Introduction 32
4.2 Status of Uganda’s land, ecosystems and ecosystem services 32
4.2.1 Degradation of Uganda’s land 32

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015x
4.2.1.1 Degradation of cropland 32
4.2.2 Ecosystems and ecosystems services 44
4.2.3 Status and trends in forest cover 45
4.2.4 Status and trends in wetlands 46
4.2.5 Status and trends in water quality and resources 47
4.2.6 Drivers of ecosystem change and ecosystem degradation 49
4.3 Consequences of ecosystem change on human wellbeing 54
4.4 Climate change and sustainable land use and management 56
5 Land and Agriculture in Uganda’s Journey to Middle-Income status 60
5.1 Introduction 60
5.2 Agriculture and Uganda’s growth trajectory up to 2040 60
5.2.1 The contribution of land, labour and productivity to agricultural growth 60
5.2.2 The impact of agricultural land constraints 62
5.2.3 Alternative agricultural productivity scenarios 65
5.3 Land management strategies for sustainable agricultural productivity growth 67
5.3.1 Traditional land management practices and crop choice 68
5.3.2 Livestock production 69
5.3.3 Changes in input use and land management practices 69
5.3.4 Lack of trust in the existing agricultural inputs supply system as a deterrent to agricultural
input-use 72
5.4 Agroforestry 75
6 Land and human settlement patterns 76
6.1 Introduction 76
6.2 Human settlement patterns 76
6.3 Urban development in Uganda 77
6.3.1 Population growth and urbanisation 77
6.4 Urban centres and hierarchy 78
6.5 Urban settlements and industrial growth 81
6.5.1 Drivers of urban and industrial growth 71
6.5.2 Implications of urban and industrial growth 73
6.5.3 Urbanisation and Land use 74
6.6 Uganda’s settlement policy 86
6.7 Determinants of settlement policy - the “supply” and “demand” sides; 90
6.7.1 ‘Supply’ and ‘Demand’ Sides of an effective Settlement Policy 90
6.7.2 ‘Supply’ side: Government 91
6.7.3 ‘Demand’ Side: Community 91
6.7.4 Mechanisms for Participation and Feedback 92
6.7.5 Key Determinants of an effective settlement policy 92
7 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 96
7.1 Introduction 96
7.2 Conclusions 96
7.3 Recommendations 99
7.3.1 General recommendations 99
7.3.2 Agricultural production and transformation 100
7.3.3 Sound ecosystem management 104
7.3.4 Settlements and urbanisation 107
References 111

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 xi
List of Tables
Table 2. 1: Sustainable Development Goals.......................................................................................................4
Table 2. 2: Baseline Indicators for Sustainable Development Goals and Targets in Uganda.......................5
Table 2. 3: Gender disparity in primary and secondary education in all levels of education as of 2015...9
Table 3. 1: Changes in distribution of land tenure systems in Uganda (2003-2013).....................................21
Table 3. 2: Changes in the household landholdings in Uganda (2003-2013)................................................29
Table 3. 3: Changes in the distribution of landholdings in Uganda (2003-2013)...........................................31
Table 3. 4: Change in Land endowment (Hectares) between Male and Female-headed Households..31
Table 4. 1: Mean annual soil losses by water erosion measured on runoff plots or predicted using the
USLE in the Lake Victoria catchment of Uganda..........................................................................34
Table 4. 2: Changes in soil chemical properties on land cultivated by households - 2003 and 2013.......36
Table 4. 3: Minimum and Maximum Values (Range) of soil chemical properties on land cultivated by
households - 2003-2013.....................................................................................................................36
Table 4. 4: Broad characteristics of potential range areas in Uganda..........................................................38
Table 4. 5: Seasonal Means of grassy species cover (%) in the seven vegetation cover types.................40
Table 4. 6: Seasonal Means of grassy height (cm) in the seven vegetation cover types...........................41
Table 4. 7: Seasonal changes in the contribution of pasture species to forage quantity and quality......42
Table 4. 8: Effects of grazing pressure on Themeda mid-grass rangelands..................................................43
Table 4. 9: Changes in forest cover types in Uganda (Sq. Km)......................................................................45
Table 4. 10: Wetlands coverage by drainage basin..........................................................................................46
Table 4. 11 The average sustainable groundwater resource in the major river basins of Uganda..............48
Table 5. 1: Land allocation, input use, production and yield for selected crops: (RePEAT 2003 & 2012)..68
Table 5. 2: Use of agricultural inputs by crop and year (% households)........................................................70
Table 5. 3: Changes in land use and land management practices between 2003 and 2012 (RePEAT
Surveys)...............................................................................................................................................71
Table 6. 1: Uganda’s twenty largest urban settlements..................................................................................80
Table 6. 2: Uganda, population and GDP growth comparison, 1969-2014..................................................82

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015xii
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Trends in Uganda’s HDI component indices, 1980-2014.................................................................8
Figure 3. 1: Wealth per person by type of capital (2005 US Dollars).................................................................14
Figure 3. 2: Composition of Uganda’s wealth.....................................................................................................15
Figure 3. 3: Uganda, population growth 1960-2050...........................................................................................25
Figure 3. 4: Percentage of parcels under different forms of land use between 2001 and 2012...................28
Figure 3. 5: Trends in land use changes between 2001 and 2012....................................................................28
Figure 4. 1: The Ugandan Cattle Corridor............................................................................................................37
Figure 4. 2: Net forest cover between 1998 and 2014........................................................................................45
Figure 4. 3: Figure 2.10: Wetland areas in Uganda.............................................................................................47
Figure 4. 4: Variations in river Nile flows.................................................................................................................47
Figure 4. 5: Historic net basin supply of Lake Victoria, expressed as billions of cubic metres (= km3)..........48
Figure 4. 6: Estimated fish quantities landed at major water bodies in Uganda............................................52
Figure 5. 1: Contribution of labour, land and productivity to crop output growth.........................................62
Figure 5. 2: Land constraints and labour in the agricultural sector...................................................................63
Figure 5. 3: Land constraints and private consumption growth........................................................................64
Figure 5. 4: Land constraints and agricultural productivity growth..................................................................64
Figure 5. 5: Agricultural productivity and GDP per capita (USD)......................................................................66
Figure 5. 6: Productivity and labour in the agricultural sector...........................................................................66
Figure 5. 7: Agricultural productivity and food prices (2014/15=100)...............................................................67
Figure 6. 1: Nature of settlements in Uganda......................................................................................................77
Figure 6. 2: Rural and urban population growth trends 1950-2050...................................................................77
Figure 6. 3: Uganda, regional urban population growth 1969-2014.................................................................78
Figure 6. 4: Figure Proposed strategic cities in Uganda.....................................................................................79
Figure 6. 5: Regional differences in urbanisation ...............................................................................................81
Figure 6. 6: Manufacturing industries by region..................................................................................................82
Figure 6. 7: Uganda, GDP contribution per sector, 1986-2014...........................................................................83

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 xiii
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
AfDB African Development Bank
GCE Dynamic-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model
GDP Gross Domestic Product
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
GKMA Greater Kampala Metropolitan Authority
GoU Government of Uganda
IFDC International Fertilizer Development Corporation
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development
KCCA Kampala Capital City Authority
LVEMP Lake Victoria Environment Management Project
MAAIF Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries
MAMS Maquette for MDG Simulations
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MEMD Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development
MoLHUD Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development
MoWT Ministry of Works and Transport
MWE Ministry of Water and Environment
NARO National Agricultural Research Organization
NDP National Development Plan
NEMA National Environment Management Authority
NFA National Forestry Authority
NPA National Planning Authority
RePEAT Research on Poverty, Environment, and Agricultural Technology Project
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SEEA System of Environmental and Economic Accounts
TLU Tropical Livestock Units
UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UIA Uganda Investment Authority
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNHS Uganda National Household Surveys
UNLP Uganda National Land Policy
UNPS Uganda National Panel Surveys
UGS Uganda Shillings
USAID United States Agency for International Development
USD United States Dollars
WRMD Water Resources Management Department
Meaning
Acronym/
Abbreviation

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015xiv
Map of Uganda

Sustainable Development Report for Uganda 2015 xv
PART I
Sustainable Development:
The New Imperative

1. INTRODUCTION
The year 2015 marks a turning point for the
development agenda both in Uganda and on the
global stage. It is the end year for the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) and the starting date
for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The 15 years since the adoption of the MDGs
may have witnessed the greatest ever progress
in humanity’s quality of life, with available data
indicating the most rapid declines in global child
mortality and absolute poverty in recorded history.
Uganda has also achieved unprecedented
progress, attaining the first MDG to half the number
of people living below the poverty line more than
five years ahead of schedule. Agenda 2030 and its
associated goals – the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) – reflect a global aspiration for even
faster progress over the next 15 years and the need
for “a profound structural transformation that will
overcome the obstacles to sustained prosperity”.1
With the adoption of the 2030 agenda for
Sustainable Development2
by the United Nations
in 2015, a new paradigm of judging development
progress at global and national level has taken
centre stage. The recognition of the need for a
holistic view in the treatment of societal, economic
and environmental development objectives is now
a practical reality that both state and non-state
actors have to contend with.
This new practical reality demands an enhanced
understanding and measurement of both the
means and ends of development. In short, it calls
for a new paradigm in stakeholder engagement
based on new knowledge products with the ability
to inform the intricate and dynamic interactions
of society, economy and the environment.
Conceived in 2013, the Uganda Sustainable
Development Report (SDR) series aims to be a
prime contributor to this end.
1
‘A New Global Partnership: Eradication Poverty and Transform Economies
though Sustainable Development’.
The Report of the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on
the Post-2015 Development Agenda, May 2013.
2
A plan of action for people, planet and prosperity that also seeks to
strengthen universal peace in larger freedom (United Nations), https://
sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld/publication
(16.12.2015)
1.1 Purpose and Periodicity of the
Sustainable Development Report
Uganda’s SDR is a knowledge product of the
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic
Development (MFPED) that aims to inform and
influence National policy dialogue based on
frontier policy research on National development
performance and trajectories. It is the primary
tool through which MFPED will facilitate and
communicate National understanding and policy
debate on frontier policy evidence.
The SDR will also aim to effectively interact with the
policy implications of the various multiple regional
and international development frameworks that
Uganda is a signatory. These include the East
African Development Strategy; Agenda 2063 of the
African Union; the Istanbul Programme of Action
(IPoA) for Least Developed Countries; and the
UN’s 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development
through the Sustainable Development Goals.
The SDR is programmed to be published after
every 3 years. This frequency is motivated by the
need to align the report with key national data
and planning cycles as well as major regional and
global processes that feed into Uganda’s policy
agenda-setting. The next SDR, for example, will
significantly benefit from the findings of the 2014
Population and Housing Census; 2016 Uganda
Demographic Health Survey (UDHS); the 2015/16
Uganda National Household Survey.
The SDR series is both Inter-disciplinary and
multi-institutional in its expertise requirements.
Its preparation accordingly demands strong
collaborative relationships across Government,
academia, civil society, the private sector and
Development Partners. This collaboration will be
championed by theEconomic Development Policy
and Research Department (EDP&RD) of the Ministry
of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
(MoFPED). The 2015 SDR is the pioneer edition of
Uganda’s Sustainable Development Report (SDR)
series. It is themed “Strategies for Sustainable Land
Use and Management”.

1.2 Methodology
Although the thematic focus is on land, the report
takes a broader view and does not consider
natural capital in isolation. The linkages and
flows between natural, physical, human and
social capital are central to wealth accounting
as described in Section 3.2 under the wealth
accounting framework used to define the
conceptual approach to sustainable development
taken in the report. A standard methodology for
measuring national wealth is still work in progress
and a comprehensive statistical accounting of
Uganda’s assets and genuine savings is beyond
the scope of this report. Nonetheless, the wealth
accounting framework is used to guide the analysis
throughout, extending the focus beyond land and
natural capital in themselves to their role in building
Uganda’s broader productive base.
The evidence base to track, analyse and
forecast land use changes is currently insufficient
and often inaccessible to decision makers,
inhibiting the country’s sustainable development
strategies. This report attempts to address this by
synthesizing the available evidence and filling
current gaps. The report provides an overview of
trends in Uganda’s land use and management,
but also a deeper analysis on how the use and
protection of land affects ecosystems; other forms
of natural capital; and the economy’s broader
productive base. For instance, the implications of
agricultural productivity trends are analysed within
an economy-wide framework, and ecosystem
services are examined in relation to land-use
conversions associated with Uganda’s urbanisation
and industrialisation process. These interlinkages
are particularly important when bringing out the
policy implications and trade-offs between optimal
land use for economic development, settlement
patterns and ecosystem management, which is
done in the final chapter.
1.3 Structure of the Report
The report is structured into two parts. Part 1 of the
report which consists of Chapters 1 and 2 provides
an overview of where Uganda stands at the dawn
of Agenda 2030 by mapping the salient features
of Uganda’s sustainable development agenda.
Part III which is the thematic section of the report,
consists of Chapters 3 to 8. Chapter three describes
Uganda’s national development context with a
particular focus on the tenets and status of land
use and management. The chapter discusses the
land management policies including the evolution
of land policy and tenure systems, as well as recent
trends in access to and use of land at the household
level. Factors driving these trends and the resulting
impacts on the quality of land and ecosystems are
also reviewed. This chapter draws on a wide range
of data sources, including community; household
and plot-level survey data, and an extensive review
of literature. The primary survey data used is the
RePEAT (Research on Poverty, Environment, and
Agricultural Technology) project of the National
Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and
Makerere University; which builds on an earlier
research project on Policy Options for Improved
Land Management in Uganda, conducted by
the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI) and Makerere University between 1999 and
2001(Pender et al., 2001).
Three RePEAT surveys were conducted in 2003,
2005 and 2012/2013, re-interviewing the same
households to identify changes in agricultural
technologies and farming systems, including
the use to which each land parcel was put in
the previous three to four cropping seasons. The
RePEAT surveys involved 94 communities (LC1s,
the lowest administrative unit) covering about
two thirds of Uganda and representing seven of
the nine major farming systems of the country.
From each of the 94 LC1s, ten households were
randomly selected for household surveys to make
a total of 940 households. The RePEAT surveys are
complemented with nationally representative
data from the Uganda National Household Survey
(UNHS) and Uganda National Panel Surveys
conducted by UBOS.
Chapter Four highlights key trends in land use
and management in Uganda. Chapter Five
discusses changes in the status of ecosystems and
ecosystem management. The drivers and impacts
of ecosystem change and ecosystem degradation
are discussed.

Chapter Six provides deeper economic and
environmental analysis. The RePEAT surveys are
used to explore the relationship between land use
and agricultural productivity at the household level.
A fuller understanding of the complex relationships
between land use, agricultural production and
Uganda’s long-term development trajectory
is obtained through the analysis of alterative
scenarios using an economy-wide, macro-micro
model.
The main analytical tool used in this section of the
report is an economic model known as MAMS
(short for Maquette for MDG Simulations). MAMS
is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
which uses real-world data and economic theory
to understand how an economy might react to a
new policy, technology or other external factor.
The model was calibrated using a database of
the Ugandan economy including ten household
types, over 40 economic sectors, three labour
categories and five types of natural capital. This
detailed database makes the model well-suited to
analysing the inter-sectoral and macroeconomic
implications of changes in the availability of
agricultural land and agricultural productivity
growth.
Chapter Seven evaluates Uganda’s settlement
policy and settlements patterns and assesses how
they can drive Uganda to middle-income status.
Finally Chapter Eight provides conclusions and
highlights the priorities to be addressed for
Uganda to balance economic development and
environmental sustainability.
1.4 Data and Indicators
The report is based on both quantitative and
qualitative analysis. The key sources of quantitative
data for this study are nationally representative
household surveys conducted by the Uganda
Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). These include the
Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) for
fiscal years 2002/03, 2005/06, 2009/10 and 2012/13;
the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) for fiscal
years 2005/06, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12. These
datasets were used to examine the trends in the
socio-economic profile of Ugandan households
related to land use, agriculture, settlement,
environment and poverty since 2002/2003; 1992/3.
In addition the study used the data from RePEAT
surveys already mentioned above. Data on land
use/land cover change was obtained from the
National Biomass Study Report of 2003 and 2009
conducted by National Forestry Authority (NFA).
Other secondary sources of evidence are used to
complement these primary datasets.
The quantitative evidence is complimented by
the stakeholder consultations conducted in the
GovernmentMinistries,DepartmentsandAgencies;
particularly the Ministry of Finance Planning and
Economic Development (MoFPED), Ministry of
Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF)
Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE), Ministry of
Lands Housing and Urban Development (MoLHUD),
Ministry of Trade Industry and Cooperatives (MTIC),
Ministry of Local Government (MoLG), National
Planning Authority (NPA), National environment
Management Authority (MEMA) and National
Forestry Authority (NFA). Consultations were also
conducted with personnel of Natural Resources
Management and Production Departments at
District level. The districts were selected in such a
way that there is representation for the four major
regions of Uganda, the 10 agro-ecological zones
and rural and urban representation. The districts
visited include: Jinja, Manafwa, Mayuge and
Soroti (Eastern region); Gulu, Lira, Nebbi, Moroto
(Northern region); Masaka, Mubende, Nakasogola
and Wakiso (Central region); and, Busheny,
Kabale, Kanungu and Kiruhura (Western region).
Kampala City was selected to represent the urban
areas. The aim of the consultations were to gather
further evidence on land use change and land
management that could inform the study and
generate policy recommendations for enhancing
sustainable land use and management.

2 MAPPING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN UGANDA
A country’s sustainable development can be
conceived as a dynamic equilibrium of the key
characteristic factors of its society, economy and
environment. These factors vary from country to
country as well as in their scale and scope. For
Uganda, various studies and documents including
the National Development Plan identify these key
characteristic factors to include population and
demographics; urbanisation; economic growth
and structural transformation; governance and
institutional development; human development;
and environment and natural resources.
This chapter accordingly provides a brief overview
of the state of play of each of these factors in
Ugandaasabaselineagainstwhichtopicturewhat
success for Uganda would look like in regards to its
sustainable development agenda. It endeavours
to capture Uganda’s current standing against
key development outcomes associated with the
characteristic factors of Uganda’s development.
This discussion is preceded by a background of
the recently adopted global 2030 agenda for
sustainable development and its 17 goals.
2.1 The Global 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
is dubbed as an agenda for People, Planet and
Prosperity. It is expected to stimulate and advance
convergence of action by all development
actors around five outcome areas: People;
Planet; Prosperity; Peace and Partnerships. In
the formulation of the sustainable development
goals, considerable effort was made to ensure
that the proposed goals, targets and indicators
are in alignment with the vision, principles, guiding
framework and criteria set out at the global,
regional and national level. The new Goals and
targets came into effect on 1 January 2016 and
will guide the decisions we take over the next
fifteen years.
The 2030 agenda for sustainable development
is elaborated in a development framework
of 17 global goals known as the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) together with a
corresponding set of 169 targets. The SDGs have
been characterised as unique compared to other
goals including their predecessors the MDGs for
the reasons details in Table 2.1 below.
Table 2. 1: Sustainable Development Goals
Orientation of the SDGs SDG Distinctives
People: To end poverty and hunger, in all their forms and dimensions, and to ensure that all
human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment
Planet: To protect the planet from degradation, including through sustainable consumption
and production, sustainably managing its natural resources and taking urgent action on
climate change, so that it can support the needs of the present and future generations
Prosperity: To ensure that all human beings can enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives and that
economic, social and technological progress occurs in harmony with nature
Peace: To foster peaceful, just and inclusive societies which are free from fear and violence”
because “there can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without
sustainable development”
Partnership: To mobilize the means required to implement this Agenda through a revitalised
Global Partnership for Sustainable Development, based on a spirit of strengthened global
solidarity, focused in particular on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable and with the
participation of all countries, all stakeholders and all people”
Universal: They apply to all countries,
high and low income countries alike
Holistic: They aim to achieve sustainable
development in its three dimensions –
economic, social and environmental – in
a balanced and integrated manner
Transformative: They seek to address
the fundamental causes of poverty and
underdevelopment as opposed to just
focusing on their symptoms
Ambitious: The aim to “leave no one
behind”
Source: Adapted from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org

Whereas the SDGs are universal in nature, their implementation is expected to take into account different
national realities, capacities and levels of development and to respect national policies and priorities. This
is what localisation of the SDGs is about. This is also the point where Uganda’s National Development Plans
and Budget Strategies come into play. A quick mapping of the 17 SDGs with their 169 associated targets
against Uganda’s current official statistics framework shows that Uganda presently reports against 15% (26
targets) of the SDG targets.
Table 2. 2: Baseline Indicators for Sustainable Development Goals and Targets in Uganda3
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)
Official No. of
Targets
Targets with existing
related National
indicators
Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 07 02
Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable
agriculture
08 03
Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages 13 04
Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning
opportunities for all
10
02
Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls 09 02
Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all 08 03
Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all 05 01
Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive
employment and decent work for all
12 03
Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and
foster innovation
08 02
Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries 10 03
Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable 10 00
Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns 11 00
Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 05 00
Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for
sustainable development
10 00
Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems,
sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation
and halt biodiversity loss
12 01
Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide
access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all
levels
12 00
Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for
sustainable development
19 00
Total 169 26
3
Specific targets for which there are related indicators that Uganda has official statistics about are detailed in Annex 1

Implementation of the SDGs is expected to
take into account different national realities,
capacities and levels of development and to
respect national policies and priorities. In the case
of Uganda, Government is localising the SDGs
at the strategic level of its development policies
and National Development Plan. Beyond that,
Government’s preoccupation is with ensuring
effective implementation of the NDP II and its
successors through effective measurement and
management of public service delivery. According
to the latest United Nations Development
Assistance Framework (UNDAF), NDP II (2015/16
to 2019/20) has incorporated 76 per cent of the
SDGs placing Uganda among the first countries
with national plans that meaningfully equate to a
National Sustainable Development Strategy.
2.2 The Status of Characteristic Factors of Sustainable Development in Uganda
2.2.1 Economic growth and structural
transformation
Uganda saw unprecedented economic growth
in the 1990s and early 2000s, as depicted by
real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth that
averaged 7% per year, making the country one of
the fastest growing African countries4
. The country
has however experienced more economic
volatility in the last decade due to both domestic
and international shocks, with GDP growth
declining to an average of about 5%. Growth has
over the years been driven mainly by agriculture,
industry and the service sectors. The contribution
of key sectors above has been changing over the
years implying that the country has been and is still
undergoing structural change in the sectoral and
occupational composition of the labour force.
Current evidence shows that the population
relying on subsistence agriculture has significantly
reduced over the last two decades. The 2014
Poverty Status report indicates that households
relying on subsistence agriculture have reduced
by almost half; from 54 percent in 1992/3 to
26 percent in 2012/13. The shift away from the
agricultural sector is highly associated with rural-
to-urban migration and increased diversification
within rural areas of the country.
Whereas family agriculture still remains the most
dominant source of income for a majority of the
rural households in rural areas, non-agricultural
household enterprises and wage employment
have over the few years picked up as a key source
of income, and accounting for about 15 and
4
World Bank’s economic overview for Uganda,2015
14 percent of the household incomes respectively.
The growth of off-farm economic activities has
played a great role in reducing underemployment
and supplementing household incomes over the
two or so decades, and this has consequently led
to a reduction in the poverty levels at the national
level. Uganda was able to achieve the MDG
target on the proportion of people whose income
is less than one dollar a day, way before the 2015
deadline, with poverty levels having declined from
24.5 in 2009/10 to 19.7 in 2012/135
. During the same
period, the country registered significant reduction
in overall inequality from 0.426 to 0.395.
2.2.2 Population and Demographics
Population dynamics are paramount in providing
important socio-economic opportunities for
sustainable development. The population growth
rate not only influences a country’s prospects for
economic growth and poverty reduction, but also
its environmental sustainability. A fall in fertility levels
and slower population growth rate brings about
an increased concentration of the population
in the working age range, and this could enable
an economy to reap from a huge demographic
dividend. On one hand, reduced fertility levels
usually curtail down dependency ratios, and this
creates a number of opportunities for households
and countries to increase investments in the
productive sectors (Herrmann, 2012).
On the other hand, a rapidly and ever-increasing
population usually creates huge demands on an
economy and this highly constrains economic
growth and may negatively impact the
environment.
5
UBOS National Household survey for FY 2012/13 and the Millennium
Development Goals report 2015.

Uganda’s population has been growing at a rapid
pace stemming from persistent high fertility and the
associated general decline in mortality over the
recent past. The country’s population has in the
last decade grown by 10.7 million, from 24.2 million
in 2002 to 34.9 million people in 20146
, an average
annual growth rate of 3.03 per cent. It is projected
that if population growth is not checked, Uganda’s
population will increase to 47.4 million by 2025.
With prevailing levels of agricultural productivity,
continuation of the current population pressure
could continue to undermine food security by
increasing the country’s vulnerability to food
shortage; increased land fragmentation and
environmental destruction.
Most people in Uganda still depend on agriculture
for their livelihoods. Currently, 72 percent of the
workforce and 87 percent of the working poor
are primarily engaged in agricultural activities
with agriculture contributing about 24 percent
to GDP growth. Continued population increase
is likely to negatively affect savings as a result
of having more dependent children in the
country7
, and consequently affect per capita
spending on service, especially on health and
education sectors. This could greatly compromise
the country’s development outcomes through
curtailing down production and productivity, and
consequently affect employment creation.
That notwithstanding, the country’s population
dynamics and emerging economic opportunities
can be turned into a valuable demographic
dividend. Demographic dividend refers to
accelerated economic growth that arises when
the birth rate declines rapidly and the ratio of
working-age adults significantly increases relative
to dependents (Bloom et al., 2003; Mason 2001).
This change can accelerate economic growth
through increased productivity of the “excess”
labour force, if the economy generates enough
high-quality jobs, greater household savings, and
lower costs for basic social services provided to a
young population.
6
UBOS Provisional Population Census results 2014
7
International Review of Applied Economics, Volume 19, Issue 3,
2005
2.2.3 Human Development
Over the last few decades, human development
has been advanced as the ultimate objective of
human activity and has been recognised as a
critical factor in the advancement of economic
growth and development (Ranis, Stewart and
Ramirez, 2000). Human development focuses on
important aspects of human wellbeing including
the rights to education and health, and free
participation in economic, social and political
activities. Human development manifests itself in a
long and healthy life, knowledge (education and
skills) and a decent standard of living, including
earning high incomes and purchasing power or
command over economic resources. Uganda’s
standing against these parameters is discussed
in the subsequent sections using the Human
Development Index approach8
.
Human Development Index (HDI)
The HDI was created on the premise that whereas
development was at the time being measured
using economic growth alone, people and their
capabilities needed to be the ultimate criteria for
assessing the development of a country. The HDI
comprises three core dimensions namely; a long
and healthy life; being knowledgeable; and having
a decent standard of living.9
. Life expectancy
serves as a proxy measure for the general health of
the population, and it depends on the satisfaction
of many basic human needs such as adequate
nutrition, clean water and sanitation, and access
to medical services such as vaccination.
Uganda’s HDI improved from 0.448 in 2005/6 to
0.463 in 2012/13, which is equivalent to a 0.5 percent
per annum growth in human development (UNDP,
2015). This clearly shows that Uganda remains
ranked low on human development, given the
fact that its index falls below the HDI cut-off value
of 0.550. In 2014, Uganda’ was ranked 163 out 188
countries with its HDI value at 0.483, which is below
8
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index
measuring average achievements in three basic dimensions of
human development mentioned above
9
UNDP HDI ranking. The health dimension is assessed by life
expectancy at birth, while the education dimension is measured
by mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years, and more
and expected years of schooling for children of school entering
age. The standard of living dimension is measured by gross
national income per capita

the average of 0.505 for countries in the low human development group and below the average of 0.518
for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa10
.
However, the country’s HDI has over the years improved consistently, increasing from 0.285 in 1980 to
0.483 in 2014, which represents an increase of 69.4 percent or an average annual increase of about
1.56 percent. The highest contribution to the HDI comes from the health index (life expectancy at birth)
followed by the education index (mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling). The income
index made the lowest contribution as shown in Fig 2.1 below
Figure 2.1: Trends in Uganda’s HDI component indices, 1980-2014
6
5
4
3
2
1980
Life Expectancy Education GNI per capita
HDI
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: UNDP, Human Development Report, 2015
Uganda has continued to register improvements in life expectancy at birth mainly attributed to improved
health outcomes. Between FY 2005/6 and 2012/13, Uganda’s life expectancy at birth increased by 4.4
years for the entire population, rising from 53.3 to 58.7 years.
Over the last two decades, Uganda also has made improvements in the education index (mean years of
schooling and expected years of schooling), mainly attributed the implementation of the universal primary
and secondary education. These policies/programmes have over the years led to mass enrolment of both
girls and boys especially at the primary school level. However, the quality of education and inadequate
skills are currently a major issue of concern for the country. Efforts have been devoted towards promoting
quality and skills development in order to ensure that sustainable development is not compromised during
implementation of Agenda 2030.
Gender and Development
Internationally, it is now accepted that expanding opportunities for women and girls is not only a human
right, but also essential for sustainable development and gender inequality has been recognised as a major
impediment to sustainable human development. The gender-responsive legal and policy environment
has seen Uganda register some progress in reducing gender inequalities and vulnerabilities across the
different social, political and economic capabilities as indicated in the summary Table 2.3 below
10
UNDP Briefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report

Table 2. 3: Gender disparity in primary and secondary education in all levels of education as of 2015
Indicators 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2014
2015
target
3.1 Ratio of girls to boys1

in primary education 93.2% 97.1% 99.4% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0% 100%
in secondary education 78.8% 82.4% 83.5% 84.2% 85.2% 88.3% 100%
in tertiary education 58.0% 64.7% 72.7% 77.6% 78.6% 79.1% 100%
3.2 Share of non-agricultural wage
workers who are women2 NA NA 28.1% 33.4% 30.2% NA
3.3 Proportion of seats held by women in
Parliament3 17.9% 24.7% 23.9% 30.7% 35.0% 35.0%
Source: Uganda MDG 2015
from 12 to 24 percent13
, and the country’s urban
population is projected to increase from 6 million
in 2013 to over 20 million in 204014
. The World
Bank estimates show that 69 percent of Uganda’s
urban population live in small cities with less than
500,000 people. This rapid urbanization requires
a mix of policy options to promote sustainable
and inclusive growth in the country. Growth of
many cities across the globe has often come
with establishment and expansion of productive
businesses, as it reduces the distance between
suppliers and customers and this has consequently
led to increased productivity, job creation and
increased tax base.
Higher population density enables governments
to deliver essential infrastructure and services
in urban areas more easily and at relatively low
cost per capita. Evidence has shown that well
planned and managed urbanisation is likely to
foster creation of sustainable jobs; access to
affordable housing; clean water and sanitation;
reliable public transport, and consequently propel
growth through attraction of more capital inflows,
innovation and skilled labour, and growth of a
formal private sector15
.
Globally, evidence has shown that increasing
numbers of the world’s poor will most likely increase
the number of city dwellers, and Uganda is not an
exception. Like many in other countries, a large
13
Provisional results of the 2014 Population and Housing Census report an
urbanization rate of 18% because census data from town boards was yet to be
included
14
World Bank (2015): The Growth Challenge: Can Ugandan Cities get to Work?
15
According to Word Bank, if the potential of cities is not unlocked, countries
could experience a deceleration of growth and the emergence of dysfunctional
slum cities, in which people live in appalling conditions
However, significant gender inequalities still persist
in the country. According to the GDI (Gender
Development index (GDI)11
, which measures
gender inequalities in achievement in three
basic dimensions of human development: health
(measured by female and male life expectancy
at birth); education (measured by female and
male expected years of schooling for children
and mean years for adults aged 25 years and
older); and command over economic resources
(measured by female and male estimated GNI
per capita, Uganda’s performance remains low
when compared to some regional peers. The 2014
female HDI value for Uganda is 0.452 in contrast
with 0.510 for males, resulting in a GDI value of
0.886. This score is low when compared to that of
countries like Madagascar and Tanzania whose
score is 0.945 and 0.938 respectively12
.
2.2.4 Urbanisation for Sustainable
development
Urbanisation has become a key sustainable
development issue. The recent urbanisation trends
and poverty levels in developing countries have
compoundedandweakenedthecapacityofthese
countries to achieve sustainable development. In
Uganda, like many other developing countries,
there is an increasing transition of people from rural
areas to urban areas.
Between 1992/3 and 2012/13, the proportion of
Uganda’s population living in urban areas doubled
11
A measure for gender gaps in Human Development achievements which takes
into account the disparities between women and men in three basic dimensions
of human development
12
UNDP Briefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report

portion of the urban population in Uganda lives in
slums. Estimates show that more than 60 percent
of the urban population in the country live in slums
due to shortage of decent housing facilities (World
Bank, 2015), with many of the slum dwellers lacking
access to basic services and secure settlements.
2.2.5 Governance and institutional
development
Effective governance systems and institutions that
are responsive to public needs are likely to deliver
essential services and promote inclusive growth in
an economy. Good governance and effective
institutions encourage people to live free from
violence and consequently curtail down fear and
crime16
. This means that governance helps build
peaceful and secure societies.
Peace and security are critical elements for
promoting and enhancing stability in an economy
and is therefore key for attracting investments for
sustainable development. For instance sustainable
development cannot be achieved, if citizens and
investors have no confidence in the county’s rule of
law and the justice system. The rule of law regulates
economic activity, defines and affirms rights and
obligations, thereby clarifying for investors the laws
and institutional environment for doing business.
For close to three decades now, Uganda has
made progress in consolidating democracy and
good governance. Progress was achieved in the
areas of democracy, where citizens are involved in
electing their political leadership at all levels.
Over the years, there has been improvement
in collective decision making, more especially
through the decentralised system of governance,
rule of law, respect and protection of human rights,
and institutional reforms to strengthen the three
arms of Government. The general improvement
in Uganda’s governance system was indicated
in the Mo-Ibrahim Index of African Governance
of 2013, where it was ranked 18th out of the 52
African States, an improvement from 20th position
in 2011. This improvement has raised Uganda’s
image and eligibility for cooperation and support
16
UNDP Discussion Paper: Governance for Sustainable Development Integrating
Governance in the Post-2015 Development Framework, 2014
from Development Partners such as the World Bank
and African Development Bank.
Transparency and Accountability
It is globally recognised that transparency and
accountability are critical elements for the efficient
functioning of modern economies and for fostering
social well-being, which is in line with the core
aspirations of sustainable development. Over the
last two decades, government recognised that
corruption compromises the quality and scope
of service delivery and has consequently, taken
a number of important steps towards promoting
effective use of public resources. Key among
these is the Public Expenditure and Financial
Accountability (PEFA) assessment and the midterm
review (2013) for the Public Financial Management
(PFM) reform strategy which recognized a
weakness in the budget governance in areas of
budget credibility and control, enforcement of
compliance with regulations and the capacity to
design and implement projects or programmes.
Uganda has instituted a number of PFM reforms
with accountability measures to efficiently and
effectively utilise public resources. Innovations in
cash management such as implementation of
the Treasury Single Account (TSA); rollout of the
Integrated Personnel, Payroll and Pension System
(IPPS); enhanced budget transparency; and
enforcement of controls through the Integrated
Financial Management System (IFMS) are aimed
at ensuring effective accountability mechanisms
in the country.
A number of anti-corruption laws including the
Anti-Corruption Act, 2009, the Inspectorate of
Government Act, 2002, the Public Finance and
Accountability Act, 2003, the Leadership Code
Act, 2002, Whistle Blowers Act, 2010, the Public
Procurement and Disposal of Public Assets Act,
2003, Budget Act, 2003, Access to Information Act,
2005, the Audit Act, 2008 have been put in place
to ensure that the key principles of transparency
and accountability are followed and adhered to
for effective service delivery.

2.2.6 Environment and natural resources
Sustainable development cannot be fully
achieved without recognising one of its major
components, which is environment. Globally, the
environment is changing due to both natural and
human activities and this is greatly undermining
sustainable development. Human activities have
greatly contributed to destroying the environment
more especially through land degradation, climate
change and loss of biodiversity. Environmental
destruction negates all efforts to alleviate poverty
in developing countries, and adversely affects
water resources, human health, agriculture,
forestry, fisheries, and ecosystems. Globally, it is
projected that changes in the environment are
likely to have even more severe consequences for
sustainable development, if not well handled.
Uganda is one of the few countries that are gifted
with unique weather and climate that supports
resilient ecosystems and biodiversity. This has
resulted into its unrivalled advantage amongst
world economies in terms of food production,
tourism and the services sector. Forests, trees
and other biomass grow in all parts of the country
providing good soils and watersheds for agricultural
production. Large tracts of inter-connected
wetlands exist, providing habitat for birds, insects
and other benefits to tourists and incomes for local
communities.
Environmental and natural resource management
will be key to supporting sustainability of the benefits
from nature that supports the country’s economic
growth. However, due to the ever increasing
population and the associated land-use changes
such as cutting down forests to create farmland
and for firewood and charcoal, has left the
country at a risk of depletion and destruction of the
environment and natural resources, and this could
have serious implications for the Uganda’s climate.
Over the last two decades alone, Uganda has had
huge loses of forest land. Evidence shows that in
2005, Uganda had a total of 3.6 million hectares
of forest land compared to 4.9 million hectares in
1990, representing a 36.0 percent reduction over
a period of 15 years17
. In 2010, the country had a
total of 2.6 million hectares of forest land compared
to 4.9 million hectares in 1990, representing a 46.9
reduction over a period of only 20 years.
Between 1990 and 2005, the country experienced
a total deforestation rate of 1.8 percent per annum,
while that between 2005 and 2010 was 5.4 percent
per annum. This is also depicted in the level of
household expenditure on firewood and charcoal
that has been on the rise. Estimates indicated that
the nominal value of household expenditure on
firewood and charcoal increased to from Shs. 32.8
billion in 2005/06 to Shs.409.1 billion in 2009/10, while
during the same period, the value of charcoal
and firewood consumption in the country went up
by more than 10 times.
17
UBOS (2014), Statistical Abstract

PART II
Strategies for Land Use and
Management

3 Land Use and Management in Uganda
3.1 Introduction
This chapter provides an overview of land use
and management in the context of national
development. The chapter discusses Uganda’s
land policy, land ownership and management
as well as the changing patterns of land use.
The role of population growth, urbanisation and
industrialisation in driving changing land use and
land cover change are also discussed. The main
discussion in the chapter is preceded by a reflection
on conceptual framework for measurement of
sustainable development.
3.2 Sustainable development and wealth accounting
To consider how Uganda should sustain its
development, it is important to first understand
how sustainable development can be measured.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is perhaps the
most commonly used measure of development.
Expanding GDP so that Uganda can graduate
from low-income to middle-income status is
the overriding objective of the Vision 2040 and
the NDP. However, the debates surrounding
sustainable development within Uganda (and
globally) acknowledge that GDP is not a sufficient
indicator of a country’s progress. GDP measures
the overall level of income earned by a country
in a particular year, but it does not consider how
this income is generated or what it is used for. For
instance, agricultural income (and therefore GDP)
may grow through the adoption of improved
technologies, or from encroachment into forests
and wetlands. These two sources of growth clearly
have different implications for the sustainable
improvement of human welfare, yet this is not
captured in the measurement of GDP. Likewise, the
income earned by agricultural households may be
used to buy machinery that increases productivity,
or to purchase consumable goods such as alcohol.
These two types of expenditure have different
effects on welfare and sustainability, but when
compiling GDP a shilling consumed counts just as
much as a shilling invested.
GDP only measures current income and
expenditure. This may not be strongly related to
the path income will take over the long term, so
GDP does not tell us whether income and growth
are sustainable. A better conceptual approach to
understand sustainable development is to focus
on the assets that underpin the generation of
income – the productive base of the economy.
These assets may be natural (such as land and
the soil nutrients that influence crop yields);
physical or produced (buildings, machinery and
infrastructure); human (the health, education and
skills of the labour force) or intangible (such as
social and legal institutions). The total stock of these
assets is the country’s wealth. Since all current and
future income generation depends on the stock of
wealth, it is perhaps the best single measure of a
society’s well-being.18
For development to be sustainable, a country’s
total wealth must be increasing in per capita
terms. This provides a framework to assess the
sustainability of Uganda’s development trajectory
and guide policy. Rather than focusing only on
annual income, it is important to understand the
change in the stock of Uganda’s wealth associated
with particular trends or policies. This is sometimes
known as ‘adjusted’ or ‘genuine’ savings. For
example, the depletion of natural capital (such
as a mineral resource) to fuel consumption does
not represent sustainable development (genuine
savings would be negative even if economic
growth was high). Exploitation of this natural
capital stock may only be sustainable if the rents
extracted are transformed into physical or human
capital. This reasoning underlies Government’s
commitment to only use Uganda’s oil reserves for
investment in physical infrastructure.
18
Dasgupta, 2002. Sustainable Development:Past Hopes and Present
Realizations Among the World’s Poor.

In practice it is not straightforward to measure the
value of a country’s asset base. A comprehensive
measure of wealth should include natural assets
such as land and forests, and human and social
capital, as well as buildings, machinery and
infrastructure. Whereas Uganda has a well-
established system of national accounts to
measure income and savings, the value of physical
assets is not routinely estimated at the national
level. Natural, human and social capital presents
an even larger challenge since these assets
rarely have a market price reflective of their true
value. Nonetheless, significant progress has been
made in developing a standard methodology
for ‘wealth accounting’. The World Bank began
constructing a global database of comprehensive
wealth measures and genuine savings in the 1990s,
and in 2011 published broad wealth accounts
for over 120 countries (including Uganda) for
the years 1995, 2000, and 2005.19
In 2012, the UN
Statistical Commission approved the System of
Environmental and Economic Accounts (SEEA) as
an international statistical standard much like the
System of National Accounts in use since the 1950s.
Much work still remains,20
but this statistical effort
19
World Bank (2011), ‘The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable
Development in the New Millennium.’
20
The SEEA focuses on material natural resources such as minerals, land and
timber whereas a standard methodology to estimate the value of ecosystem
services is still under development.
has already yielded important insights on natural
resources and sustainable development.
Sustained economic development is characterised
by exponential growth of physical and intangible
capitalandasteadyincreaseinthevalueofnatural
capital. Figure 3.1 shows the average wealth
per person of different country income groups
according to World Bank estimates. On average,
natural capital accounts for one third of the
wealth of low-income countries, but among high-
income countries this falls to just 3%. The absolute
value of natural capital does not fall during the
development process, only its share in overall
wealth. On average, high-income countries have
six times more natural capital than low-income
countries. Economic progress increases the value
of the natural capital stocks that are successfully
preserved. However, it is the rapid accumulation
of physical, human and intangible capital that
are the main drivers of development: on average
the value of physical capital is 100 times higher in
high-income countries than low-income countries,
while the ratio is 130 times for intangible capital.
Figure 3. 1: Wealth per person by type of capital (2005 US Dollars)
500,000
50,000
5,000
500
Natural capital Produced capital &
urban land
Intangible capital
14,043
6,307
3,372
2,316
585
945
6,166
95,580
2,165
3,469
18,498
451,978
Uganda
Low-income countries
Middle-income countries
High-income countries
Source: Calculations based on World Bank (2011). Note: Shows estimated wealth per person in 2005 for
Uganda and country income group averages measured in 2005 US Dollars. Intangible capital (which
includes human and social capital) is calculated as a residual using income data and assumptions on the
aggregate returns to total wealth. The y-axis is displayed on a logarithmic scale.

Sustainable development requires investment in
physical equipment, machinery and infrastructure,
a healthy and skilled labour force, good
governance and effective economic institutions.
But countries that have undergone this structural
transformation have also preserved and gradually
increased the value of their natural capital. Growth
based only on the depletion of natural resources is
inevitably unsustainable. This lesson is particularly
important for Uganda, since natural capital is
estimated to account for more than half of the
country’s wealth.
3.3 Uganda’s productive assets
As discussed in the previous section, sustainable
development must enhance the productive base
of the economy – the physical, human and natural
assets used in income-generating activities, or
the country’s total wealth. According to the best
available estimates, natural capital accounts for
the majority of Uganda’s wealth. Land used for crop
production, pasture lands, protected areas, forests,
wetlands, and other natural capital accounted
for 54% of the country’s total assets in 2005 (Figure
3.2.). This is more than most other African and
low-income countries, where natural capital on
average accounts for one third or national wealth.
Crop land accounted for around three quarters of
Uganda’s natural capital, followed by protected
areas (16%) and pasture land (9%).
Figure 3. 2: Composition of Uganda’s wealth
Intangible
capital
34%
Natural
capital
54%
Protected
areas
16%
Pasture
land
9%
Crop
land
74%
Other
1%
Net
foreign
assets
3%
Produced capital & urban land
9%
a. Total wealth b. Natural capital
Source: Calculations based on World Bank (2011). Note: Data is for 2005. Intangible capital (which
includes human and social capital) is calculated as a residual using income data and assumptions on the
aggregate returns to total wealth.
The composition of Uganda’s wealth has undoubtedly changed over the last decade. The confirmation
of large oil reserves in the Albertine region means that the country’s stock of natural capital is even higher
than previously estimated. Nonetheless, over 70% of the workforce is still engaged in agricultural activities,21
and the land area under cultivation has risen steadily. The dominance of agricultural land within Uganda’s
overall productive base is therefore unlikely to have changed.
21
Uganda National Household Survey 2012/13.

Land is Uganda’s single most important asset, and
how it is used and managed will have a defining
impact on the sustainability of the country’s
development over the coming decades. Land
degradation may already be a major impediment
to sustainable agricultural growth, with important
implications for value-chain development
and the country’s broader productive base.
The changing patterns of land use and land
management practices impact agriculture and
other extractive sectors directly but also affect
industrial development and urbanisation, indeed
the linkages between natural, physical and human
capital will define Uganda’s path to sustainable
development. These considerations informed
the thematic focus of this inaugural Sustainable
Development Report for Uganda: ‘strategies for
sustainable land use management’.
3.4 Why sustainable land use and management?
Land is not only Uganda’s prime and critical
asset in development, but is a fundamental
factor of production and thus a central issue in
the country’s policy and development context.
With a total land area of 199,807 sq.km and one
of the fastest growing populations in the world, at
3.03% per annum (UBOS, 2014), land is increasingly
becoming a scarce resource in the country. For
example, Uganda’s population density has been
increasing over the years from 88.6 persons persq.
km in 1990 to 174 persons per sq. km. in 2014
(Republic of Uganda, 2014). About 82% of the
population is rural22
depending on agriculture that
is dominated by small holder subsistence farmers.
With agriculture continuing to be a sector of
strategic importance for Uganda’s prospects for
development and socio-economic transformation,
improving land use and management constitutes
a key development priority. Sustainable land use
management will continue to be a fundamental
tool for increased agricultural productivity,
sustainable rural and urban development and
industrial growth and development.
Land area estimates by type of cover as updated
from the Remote Sensing Survey carried out in
Uganda in 2010 indicate that agricultural land
occupies the largest proportion of land cover
area (38% or 91,152 sq.km.), followed by grassland
(22%), water (15%), forests (11%) and bushland
(10%) (UBOS, 2014). Uganda has accommodated
its fast-growing population by increasing the
proportion of land used for agriculture. Agricultural
land including pasture for livestock as a share of
Uganda’s total land area increased from 59.8% in
1990 to 72% in 201323
, both one of the largest shares
and one of the largest increases recorded in Sub-
Saharan Africa. This sharp increase in land use for
agricultureispartlyexplainedbythepredominance
22
UBOS, 2014. Provisional Results of the 2014 National
Population and Housing Census.
23
UBOS, 2014. Uganda National Household Survey 2012/2013
of subsistence agriculture in Uganda, which is
typically associated with the adoption of extensive
farming practices, as evidenced by the low levels
of mechanization that exist in the agricultural
sector, the low use of pesticides, fertilizers and
irrigation and, ultimately, the low and stagnating
levels of productivity per hectare.
Uganda Vision 2040 indicates that Ugandans
desire a green economy and clean environment
where the ecosystems are sustainably utilized and
managed. It envisions a food secure environment
with clean and well planned settlements with
access to all social amenities, and improved
liveability of the urban systems. One of the
development objectives of NDP II is to “increase
sustainable production, productivity and value
addition in key growth opportunities”. In the plan
agriculture remains a prioritised sector considered
central to the country’s economic growth, poverty
reduction strategy, and industrialisation (agro-
processing and light manufacturing). In order to
increase agricultural production and productivity
in the next five years (2015-2020), the NDP priorities
sustainable land management, among others.
Uganda’s National Land Use Policy, 2007 and
the Uganda National Land Policy 2010 aim to
transform the Ugandan society through optimal
use and management of land resources. The
policies focus on ensuring efficient, equitable
and optimal utilization and management of
Uganda’s land resources for poverty reduction,
wealth creation and overall socio-economic
development. Improving agricultural production,
promoting sustainable rural and urban settlements,
and insuring against environmental degradation
are key in Uganda’s aspiration to become an
upper-middle income country by 2040, and require
sustainable land use management.

3.4.1 Land management and the environment
natural ecosystems are undergoing conversion,
degradation, and decline, and are unable to
deliver ecosystem services, and the communities
and households whose livelihoods are dependent
on ecosystem assets such as wetlands and forests
are increasingly at risk. For example, wetland cover
reduced by 30% between 1994 and 2008, while the
forest cover has been reducing at a rate of 2% per
annum in the last 20 years.
One of the challenges of addressing land
degradationistheminimalinvestmentinsustainable
land management. Thus, tracking, analysing and
forecasting land use changes is necessary to guide
strategies for sustainable development. Uganda’s
Vision 2040 prioritises conserving the country’s flora
and fauna and restoring and adding value to the
ecosystems - the wetlands, forests, range lands
and catchments - by undertaking re-forestation
and afforestation on public land, promoting
participation of the population in tree planting
on both private and public land and enhancing
private investment in forestry through promotion
of commercial tree planting on private land and
adoption of green agriculture practices. The target
is to restore forest cover from the current 15 per cent
of the total land area to 24 per cent. Restoration
of degraded wetlands, hill tops, rangelands and
other fragile ecosystems will be achieved through
the implementation of catchment based systems,
gazetting of vital wetlands for increased protection
and use, and monitoring and inspecting restoration
of ecosystems (wetlands, forests, catchments).
In Uganda, land use change is one of the main
drivers of environmental change and land
degradation. Land use change affects the basic
resources of land, including the soil, thereby
impacting on the sustainability of the natural
systems on which productivity depends. Its impact
on soil quality often occurs so slowly that land
managers hardly contemplate counterbalance
measures to sustain productivity. Land degradation
is a serious and widespread environmental problem
that varies from one part of the country to another,
depending on farming practices, population
pressure, vulnerability of the soil to denudation and
local relief.
Uganda’s critical ecosystems - forests, wetlands,
rangelands and water resources - are already
facing rising pressure from agricultural expansion
(cropping and livestock rearing), human
settlements, urban and industrial expansion,
and other economic activities. Sound and well-
functioning systems are critical for sustaining
human life by providing ecosystem services
such as food, fibre, wood fuel, flow of clean
water, nutrient cycling, pollination, regulating
micro-climate, ensuring genetic diversity, waste
assimilation, soil retention and formation and
recreational services that are very important to
communities, the population and the economy
of Uganda. However, the functionality of these
critical ecosystems is on a decline due to numerous
factors notably increasing human population and
economic growth, poor waste management
and unplanned human settlement. As a result
3.4.2 Land management and human settlements
A settlement is a community in which people live.
Settlements can range in size from a small number
of dwellings grouped together to the largest
of cities with surrounding urbanized areas, and
may include villages, towns and cities. A human
settlement comprises the physical components of
shelter and infrastructure, and services to which the
physical elements provide support, that is to say,
community services such as education, health,
culture, welfare, recreation and nutrition.
Human settlements lie at the centre of global
efforts to address the multiple challenges facing
sustainable development. The Millennium
Development Goal 7 sets important targets relating
to human settlement, in line with the principles
contained in Agenda 21 and the Habitat Agenda.
Whereas Target 10 aims to halve the proportion of
people without safe drinking water by the year 2015,
Target 11 commits countries collectively to improving
the lives of 100 million slum dwellers by 2015.

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