The document presents an analysis of the telecom infrastructure market, discussing market shares, competition dynamics, and consumer behavior. It highlights the challenges of measuring market performance due to various factors like timing, data asymmetry, and inefficiencies. Several tools and strategies are suggested for effective market mapping and understanding the ecosystem.

1. Dmitry.Timerkhanov@alcatel-lucent.com © 2002-2012
http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov

2. The Market Diversity
Background
PORTFOLIO
LANDSCAPE
ECOSYSTEM
Monopolies
Fragmentation
Oligopolies
2 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

3. ‘R’ for Relevance
Timing, Consumers, Ecosystem
Company [A] vs. [B+C]
Market shares parity by country
40%
Highly Positive
inefficient national
NEED:
markets incumbency DESTINATION
30%
Market Share [B+C]
STRATEGIC
PRINCIPLE OF
20%
Negative incumbency PYRAMID
NEED: DIRECTION
10% Tools & Outputs:
MARKET MAPPING,
“MOSAIC” SUMMARIES
0%
REPORTABLE
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Market Share [A]
Source: actual observation sam ple in
telecom infrastructure m arket
NEED: INDIVIDUAL STEPS
Sources: PRIMARY NEWS, STATISTICS, REPORTS…
Tools: DAILY-FED SAME-DIMENSION DATABASES
Outputs: FEEDS, “INFLECTION POINTS”, PROJECTS…
TACTICAL
3 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

4. ‘I’ for Interconnected
4 ’C’ Dimensions & Mosaic Concept
CUSTOMERS MARKET
COUNTRIES
CONTENT
TIME
SOURCE GOOD FOR.. ..BUT TIMING & ACCOUNTING
Vendors Direct volumes Entry & extension; positive skew Signed/ordered/sold
..in-house 3x share perimeter KPI conflicts in outlook Any; exchange via intranet, HR
Carriers Capex/Opex Leasing; "other" items; ECA Acceptance/launch/registration
Subscribers Counting approach Efficient but often non-public
Capacity Replacement; optimization Up to quarterly delay
Usage details Too specific Erratic
both Accounting approach, currency, financial year, reported segments, window dressing
Regulators Capacity Measurement units At registration, not launch
COMPETITORS Custom
Subscribers
Direct volumes
3-9 months consolidation
Channels; duties
Delayed; but long-term KPIs
Border crossing
Third parties Direct volumes Asymmetric data; terminology Usually on demand
Subscribers Technicalities Irregular
4 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

5. ‘F’ for Fundamental
Field-Tested Academic Base
Mobile Subscribers
70
60 Region A Region B
50
40
30
20
Critical Elements
10
0
Inputs
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year -3
Year -2
Year -1
Evolution stage
Mobile Radio&Switching Sales
12-month moving average
Macro- & micro-context
900
Benefits
600
Sensitivity analysis
300
R&S 2/2.5G
Radio 2/2.5G
Solvable for any component
0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Enabling quantified strategy
5 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

6. ‘L’ for Leveraged
Science vs. Alchemy
6 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

7. [F] for Fun
Don’t Make It Boring
7 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

8. [F] for Fun
Mental Shortcuts
8 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

9. ‘E’ for hEuristic
Handling Information Overload
CONTENT & COUNTRY
Technology Solution Trial Certification Launch
CUSTOMER &
Funding Facilities M&A Human Resource Regulation
COMPETITOR
Why not a common search engine?
Interest vs. Importance, Vocabulary mismatch, etc.
9 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

10. ‘E’ for hEuristic
Employing Information Overload
CNE SA InfoIndex: Dimension Competition Heuristic approach
180
Rival A
Items > categories
160
Rival B
CNE SA InfoIndex: Dimension Customers
140
120
Rival C
Rival D
Watch beyond
100 160
Rival E
Customer A
80 140 Rival F
60 120 CNE SA InfoIndex: Dimension Customer Growing Segments
Rival G Most B
40 Rival H
100 Customer C
20 Rival K
80 Full scope Customer D
0 120
60 Cloud
1H08* 2H08* 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Customer E
100 CNE SA InfoIndex: Dimension InfoType
40 CDMA
Customer F
* Avg.quarterly for 6 months. Sourc e: ac tual observation in telec om infrastruc ture market
20 80 Projects_Contracts
200 Customer G Payment Company Results
0 60
Regulation
1H08* 2H08* 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 IMS
40 150 Mergers_Acquisitions
* A vg.quarterly for 6 months. Sourc e: ac tual observation in telec om infrastruc ture mark et Housing Statistics
20 Appointments
100 HFC
Financial Markets
0
Local_Production
1H08* 2H08* 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
50 Politics
Countries? * A vg.quarterly for 6 months. Sourc e: ac tual observation in telec om infrastruc ture market
Competition
Macroeconomics
0
Full scope
Depend on critical mass 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
* A vg.quarterly for 6 months. Sourc e: ac tual observation in telec om infrastruc ture market
10 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

11. RIF 2LE The Weapon
External Application
11 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012

12. RIF 2LE The Weapon
SI Long-Term Perspective
12 | Dmitry Timerkhanov http://ru.linkedin.com/in/timerkhanov | © 2012