Uploaded byDaniel Rasmus
Scenarios and Project Management
This document presents a scenario-driven approach to exploring possible futures and their implications. It summarizes a "Proud Tower" scenario where: 1. Borders become more fluid and global corporations are the primary organizers of commerce at every level. 2. Security needs outweigh privacy concerns, and close relationships form between corporations, the U.S. military, and other global entities. 3. Corporations pay more attention to governance and sustainability issues but new global and social tensions are rising in this increasingly centralized world with pervasive surveillance and less privacy.
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Scenarios and Project Management
- 1. Business Insights A scenario driven approach Daniel W. Rasmus Director of Business Insights Microsoft Business Division drasmus@microsoft.com
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- 5. The World The Industry Market size, growth, and volatility High Influence Customers Competitors Key Factors: Social Some Influence Suppliers Technological Owners Environmental Factors: Economic Little or No Influence Communities Environmental Partners Political
- 8. The Character ofWork Consumers Workers • Population shifts 2014 - 2019 • Workforce participation / • Demographic shifts education • Distribution of wealth • Immigration • Patterns of • Retirement consumption • Needs / expectations for • Personal measures of work success • Performance measures • Business-consumer relationships • Authenticity • Immediacy / intimacy • Transparency • Consumer influence on business Business • Organizational forms / Other Influences decision-making • Institutional skepticism • Business models • Social values / • Models for innovation / measures of success pace of innovation • Government • Locus of innovation, • Organizational transparency intervention wages, capabilities • Intellectual property • Model-driven approaches • Regulations • Performance measures • Popularity of US and metrics
- 9. Consumers Workers • Population • Workforce participation / education • Demographic shifts • Immigration • Distribution of wealth • Retirement • Patterns of consumption • Needs / expectations for • Personal measures of work success • Performance measures • Business-consumer relationships • Authenticity • Immediacy / intimacy • Transparency • Consumer influence on business Business • Organizational forms / decision-making Other Influences • Business models • Institutional skepticism • Models for innovation / pace • Social values / measures of innovation of success • Locus of • Government intervention innovation, wages, capabilitie • Organizational transparency s • Intellectual property • Regulations • Model-driven approaches • Performance measures and • Popularity of US metrics Capabilities and practices Information and communications Innovation and Adoption • Devices • Role of content • Pace of innovation/adoption • Data storage • Ability to absorb/interpret data • Invention vs. reapplication • Connectivity • Prevalent metaphors for • What’s after the internet? • Self-organizing interfaces technology • Visualization tools • Locus of computing • Multi-tasking • Relationship of IT and business Potential threats • Security models • IT as a global threat
- 10. PLAYING FIELD: Geopolitical and Social World BORDERED, BORDERLESS, G LOCAL LOBAL
- 11. ORGANIZATIONAL FORM: Leadership and Innovation DE-CENTRALIZED, CENTRALIZED, ―BOTTOM-UP‖ ―TOP-DOWN‖
- 12. Centralized ―Top-Down‖ Continental Proud Tower Drift Bordered, Borderless, Local/ Global Regional Frontier Freelance Friction Planet Networked ―Bottom-Up‖
- 13. Proud Tower This is a world in which… CENTRALIZED Borders are ever-more fluid, and global corporations are the primary organizing principle of commerce at every level Security and intelligence needs tend to outweigh issues of privacy, and U.S. military and global corporations form increasingly close relationships Corporations pay more attention to issues of governance, accountability and sustainability, recovering some civic trust. But new global and social tensions are rising as the century’s second decade gets underway BORDERLESS
- 14. Proud Tower –Driving Forces • Steady economic • Pervasive • Increasingly recovery, largely surveillance, less centralized, both led by the U.S. privacy in terms of • Middle East • Strengthening leadership and tensions cool middle data access, • More barriers to class…and more collection, entry legislated mobile too storage for new • Return of • Managed, corporations ―Organizational incremental • Global Man‖ and the innovation oligopolies company career • Scale uber alles dominate • Homogonous • Corporate pop culture universities play Social Context worldwide important role Organizations Geopolitical • ―Archologies‖: corp. towns the norm
- 15. Continental Drift CENTRALIZED This is a world in which… Increasing global problems— terror, economic turmoil, and environmental degradation— lead to the return of big government across the world Though the US remains militarily powerful, a series of strategic missteps significantly weakens its economic and cultural influence Major governments in Europe and Asia raise taxes to pay for large infrastructure projects intended to kick-start a stagnant and more regionalized world economy. BORDERED
- 16. Continental Drift –Driving Forces • Strained inter- • Nationalism, re • Regional national gionalism, and leaders, market relations protectionism s, brands and • Stagnant world • Strong local products economy cultural identity • Need for • Strong anti-U.S. • No parallel sentiment improvements systems and • More trade in education processes barriers • Religious • Less shared • Regional movements learning standards and more • Outsourced regulations conservative work is (re-)in- Social Context • Declining world • Physical sourced Organizations • More Geopolitical health movement— atoms—as automation, les important as s immigration bits
- 17. Frontier Friction BORDERED This is a world in which… Power and influence seep away from hierarchical institutions and corporations, as old rules stop working. DE-CENTRALIZED Facing a dynamic and dangerous world, people crave a sense of belonging and focus on communities and relationships. This gives rise to fundamentalism as well as new ―swarm‖ models of communities that assemble.
- 18. Frontier Friction –Driving Forces • Loss of • Fatigue with • ―Incumbent‖ confidence in complexity companies governments and • Growth in troubled: international fundamentalism IP, workforce, mar bodies • Taking care of kets, liabilities… • Increase in the one’s own: focus • Street smarts ―grey‖ economy on family, return trump technical • Brain-drain from of ―tribe‖ and expertise neoconservative ―micro-cultures‖ • Innovation US • Individual succeeds by • Communitization self-reliance taking into of public • Personal security account services, esp. at at a premium community the local level problems • General sense of • Increasing Social Context Organizations scarcity, shortage influence of Geopolitical s NGOs and social • More violence: entrepreneurs ―not-so-smart‖ mobs too
- 19. Freelance Planet BORDERLESS This is a world in which… Network, speed, and creativity rule. Traditional hierarchies become increasingly ineffectual, as emergent systems succeed in surprising new ways, including distributed intelligence networks DE-CENTRALIZED which greatly enhance security. Voices of the previously disenfranchised enjoy growing influence; even so, a rapidly changing technological society is challenging to many institutions and people.
- 20. Freelance Planet –Driving Forces • Turbulent world • Distributed • Fast-paced economy surveillance and collaborative • Economic—and security innovation and social—upheaval • Popular change in Europe's aging spirituality • Value webs societies movements dominate • Disorienting • Smells like • Reputation more world opportunity important; brand • Global and optimism more personal identification and • Open access to • Fluid invention reputation info. and and systems education re-invention • Massive mobility • Less loyalty • Short half-life of between success employees/-ers Social Context Organizations Geopolitical
- 22. Continental Proud Drift Tower Frontier Freelance Friction Planet
- 25. is Everybody's Business www.listeningtothefuture.com
- 27. The task isnot so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everyone sees – Schopenhauer
- 29. © 2006 MicrosoftCorporation. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. Microsoft makes no warranties, express or implied, in this summary.