This document summarizes Andrew Gelman's book "Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State" which examines the relationship between geography, income, and voting patterns in the United States. It finds that while wealthy individuals tend to vote Republican, wealthy areas vote Democratic. Additionally, the gap between rich and poor voters has increased in polarized "red" and "blue" states. Gelman attributes these trends to increasing ideological polarization between the two parties rather than changes in voters.
The document discusses various factors that influence voting behavior, including election campaigns, opinion polls, social class, and the role of the media. It examines different models of voting behavior, such as party identification, social structures, rational choice, and issue voting. Key influences on voting behavior are discussed, like election campaigns, opinion polls, the media, and voter apathy.
Randolph Frederick "Randy" Pausch[2] (October 23, 1960 – July 25, 2008) was an American professor of computer science and human-computer interaction and design at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Pausch learned that he had pancreatic cancer in September 2006, and in August 2007 he was given a terminal diagnosis: "3 to 6 months of good health left". He gave an upbeat lecture titled "The Last Lecture: Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams" on September 18, 2007, at Carnegie Mellon, which became a popular YouTube video and led to other media appearances. He then co-authored a book called The Last Lecture on the same theme, which became a New York Times best-seller.
Fitting and understanding Multilevel Models-Andrew Gelman Deepak Kumar
The document outlines Andrew Gelman's talk on fitting and understanding multilevel models. It discusses how multilevel models can make better use of existing data by pooling information across groups. The talk will cover the effectiveness of multilevel models in estimating state-level opinions from national polls, estimating variations in incumbency advantage, and before-after studies. It will also discuss how multilevel models can be used as a general approach to modeling and how to build, fit, display and summarize inferences from multilevel models.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
The document discusses various factors that influence voting behavior, including election campaigns, opinion polls, social class, and the role of the media. It examines different models of voting behavior, such as party identification, social structures, rational choice, and issue voting. Key influences on voting behavior are discussed, like election campaigns, opinion polls, the media, and voter apathy.
Randolph Frederick "Randy" Pausch[2] (October 23, 1960 – July 25, 2008) was an American professor of computer science and human-computer interaction and design at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Pausch learned that he had pancreatic cancer in September 2006, and in August 2007 he was given a terminal diagnosis: "3 to 6 months of good health left". He gave an upbeat lecture titled "The Last Lecture: Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams" on September 18, 2007, at Carnegie Mellon, which became a popular YouTube video and led to other media appearances. He then co-authored a book called The Last Lecture on the same theme, which became a New York Times best-seller.
Fitting and understanding Multilevel Models-Andrew Gelman Deepak Kumar
The document outlines Andrew Gelman's talk on fitting and understanding multilevel models. It discusses how multilevel models can make better use of existing data by pooling information across groups. The talk will cover the effectiveness of multilevel models in estimating state-level opinions from national polls, estimating variations in incumbency advantage, and before-after studies. It will also discuss how multilevel models can be used as a general approach to modeling and how to build, fit, display and summarize inferences from multilevel models.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
#WenguiGuo#WashingtonFarm Guo Wengui Wolf son ambition exposed to open a far...rittaajmal71
Since fleeing to the United States in 2014, Guo Wengui has founded a number of projects in the United States, such as GTV Media Group, GTV private equity, farm loan project, G Club Operations Co., LTD., and Himalaya Exchange.
Apna Punjab Media is a Punjabi newspaper that covers local and global news, cultural updates, and community events. It's a trusted source for Punjabi-speaking communities, offering a mix of traditional values and modern insights into Punjab's vibrant life and heritage.
Why We Chose ScyllaDB over DynamoDB for "User Watch Status"ScyllaDB
Yichen Wei and Adam Drennan share the architecture and technical requirements behind "user watch status" for a major global media streaming service, what that meant for their database, the pros and cons of the many options they considered for replacing DynamoDB, why they ultimately chose ScyllaDB, and their lessons learned so far.
18062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
लालू यादव की जीवनी LALU PRASAD YADAV BIOGRAPHYVoterMood
Discover the life and times of Lalu Prasad Yadav with a comprehensive biography in Hindi. Learn about his early days, rise in politics, controversies, and contribution.
projet de traité négocié à Istanbul (anglais).pdfEdouardHusson
Ceci est le projet de traité qui avait été négocié entre Russes et Ukrainiens à Istanbul en mars 2022, avant que les Etats-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne ne détournent Kiev de signer.
विवादास्पद फिल्म के ट्रेलर से गाली-गलौज वाले दृश्य हटा दिए गए हैं, और जुर्माना लगाया गया है। सुप्रीम कोर्ट और बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट दोनों ने फिल्म की रिलीज पर रोक लगा दी है और उसे निलंबित कर दिया है। पहले यह फिल्म 7 जून और फिर 14 जून को रिलीज होने वाली थी, लेकिन अब यह 21 जून को रिलीज हो रही है।
La defensa del expresidente Juan Orlando Hernández, declarado culpable por narcotráfico en EE. UU., solicitó este viernes al juez Kevin Castel que imponga una condena mínima de 40 años de prisión.
मद्रास उच्च न्यायालय के सेवानिवृत्त न्यायाधीश और केंद्र और राज्य सरकार के नौकरशाहों सहित आठ अन्य लोगों की अध्यक्षता वाली एक उच्च स्तरीय समिति ने 2021 में NEET परीक्षा को खत्म करने की सिफारिश की थी। महत्वपूर्ण बात यह है कि रिपोर्ट में 2010-11 में ग्रामीण पृष्ठभूमि से तमिल छात्रों की संख्या में 61.5% की भारी गिरावट को दर्शाया गया है। इसके बजाय मेट्रो छात्रों में वृद्धि दर्ज की गई है।
19 जून को बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट ने विवादित फिल्म ‘हमारे बारह’ को 21 जून को थिएटर में रिलीज करने का रास्ता साफ कर दिया, हालांकि यह सुनिश्चित करने के बाद कि फिल्म निर्माता कुछ आपत्तिजनक अंशों को हटा दें।
17062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
19 जून को बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट ने विवादित फिल्म ‘हमारे बारह’ को 21 जून को थिएटर में रिलीज करने का रास्ता साफ कर दिया, हालांकि यह सुनिश्चित करने के बाद कि फिल्म निर्माता कुछ आपत्तिजनक अंशों को हटा दें।
16062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
La defensa del expresidente Juan Orlando Hernández, declarado culpable por narcotráfico en EE. UU., solicitó este viernes al juez Kevin Castel que imponga una condena mínima de 40 años de prisión.
Christian persecution in Islamic countries has intensified, with alarming incidents of violence, discrimination, and intolerance. This article highlights recent attacks in Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq, exposing the multifaceted challenges faced by Christian communities. Despite the severity of these atrocities, the Western world's response remains muted due to political, economic, and social considerations. The urgent need for international intervention is underscored, emphasizing that without substantial support, the future of Christianity in these regions is at grave risk.
https://ecspe.org/the-rise-of-christian-persecution-in-islamic-countries/
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
Creative operations teams expect increased AI use in 2024. Currently, over half of tasks are not AI-enabled, but this is expected to decrease in the coming year. ChatGPT is the most popular AI tool currently. Business leaders are more actively exploring AI benefits than individual contributors. Most respondents do not believe AI will impact workforce size in 2024. However, some inhibitions still exist around AI accuracy and lack of understanding. Creatives primarily want to use AI to save time on mundane tasks and boost productivity.
Organizational culture includes values, norms, systems, symbols, language, assumptions, beliefs, and habits that influence employee behaviors and how people interpret those behaviors. It is important because culture can help or hinder a company's success. Some key aspects of Netflix's culture that help it achieve results include hiring smartly so every position has stars, focusing on attitude over just aptitude, and having a strict policy against peacocks, whiners, and jerks.
#WenguiGuo#WashingtonFarm Guo Wengui Wolf son ambition exposed to open a far...rittaajmal71
Since fleeing to the United States in 2014, Guo Wengui has founded a number of projects in the United States, such as GTV Media Group, GTV private equity, farm loan project, G Club Operations Co., LTD., and Himalaya Exchange.
Apna Punjab Media is a Punjabi newspaper that covers local and global news, cultural updates, and community events. It's a trusted source for Punjabi-speaking communities, offering a mix of traditional values and modern insights into Punjab's vibrant life and heritage.
Why We Chose ScyllaDB over DynamoDB for "User Watch Status"ScyllaDB
Yichen Wei and Adam Drennan share the architecture and technical requirements behind "user watch status" for a major global media streaming service, what that meant for their database, the pros and cons of the many options they considered for replacing DynamoDB, why they ultimately chose ScyllaDB, and their lessons learned so far.
18062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
लालू यादव की जीवनी LALU PRASAD YADAV BIOGRAPHYVoterMood
Discover the life and times of Lalu Prasad Yadav with a comprehensive biography in Hindi. Learn about his early days, rise in politics, controversies, and contribution.
projet de traité négocié à Istanbul (anglais).pdfEdouardHusson
Ceci est le projet de traité qui avait été négocié entre Russes et Ukrainiens à Istanbul en mars 2022, avant que les Etats-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne ne détournent Kiev de signer.
विवादास्पद फिल्म के ट्रेलर से गाली-गलौज वाले दृश्य हटा दिए गए हैं, और जुर्माना लगाया गया है। सुप्रीम कोर्ट और बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट दोनों ने फिल्म की रिलीज पर रोक लगा दी है और उसे निलंबित कर दिया है। पहले यह फिल्म 7 जून और फिर 14 जून को रिलीज होने वाली थी, लेकिन अब यह 21 जून को रिलीज हो रही है।
La defensa del expresidente Juan Orlando Hernández, declarado culpable por narcotráfico en EE. UU., solicitó este viernes al juez Kevin Castel que imponga una condena mínima de 40 años de prisión.
मद्रास उच्च न्यायालय के सेवानिवृत्त न्यायाधीश और केंद्र और राज्य सरकार के नौकरशाहों सहित आठ अन्य लोगों की अध्यक्षता वाली एक उच्च स्तरीय समिति ने 2021 में NEET परीक्षा को खत्म करने की सिफारिश की थी। महत्वपूर्ण बात यह है कि रिपोर्ट में 2010-11 में ग्रामीण पृष्ठभूमि से तमिल छात्रों की संख्या में 61.5% की भारी गिरावट को दर्शाया गया है। इसके बजाय मेट्रो छात्रों में वृद्धि दर्ज की गई है।
19 जून को बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट ने विवादित फिल्म ‘हमारे बारह’ को 21 जून को थिएटर में रिलीज करने का रास्ता साफ कर दिया, हालांकि यह सुनिश्चित करने के बाद कि फिल्म निर्माता कुछ आपत्तिजनक अंशों को हटा दें।
17062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
19 जून को बॉम्बे हाई कोर्ट ने विवादित फिल्म ‘हमारे बारह’ को 21 जून को थिएटर में रिलीज करने का रास्ता साफ कर दिया, हालांकि यह सुनिश्चित करने के बाद कि फिल्म निर्माता कुछ आपत्तिजनक अंशों को हटा दें।
16062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
La defensa del expresidente Juan Orlando Hernández, declarado culpable por narcotráfico en EE. UU., solicitó este viernes al juez Kevin Castel que imponga una condena mínima de 40 años de prisión.
Christian persecution in Islamic countries has intensified, with alarming incidents of violence, discrimination, and intolerance. This article highlights recent attacks in Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq, exposing the multifaceted challenges faced by Christian communities. Despite the severity of these atrocities, the Western world's response remains muted due to political, economic, and social considerations. The urgent need for international intervention is underscored, emphasizing that without substantial support, the future of Christianity in these regions is at grave risk.
https://ecspe.org/the-rise-of-christian-persecution-in-islamic-countries/
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
Creative operations teams expect increased AI use in 2024. Currently, over half of tasks are not AI-enabled, but this is expected to decrease in the coming year. ChatGPT is the most popular AI tool currently. Business leaders are more actively exploring AI benefits than individual contributors. Most respondents do not believe AI will impact workforce size in 2024. However, some inhibitions still exist around AI accuracy and lack of understanding. Creatives primarily want to use AI to save time on mundane tasks and boost productivity.
Organizational culture includes values, norms, systems, symbols, language, assumptions, beliefs, and habits that influence employee behaviors and how people interpret those behaviors. It is important because culture can help or hinder a company's success. Some key aspects of Netflix's culture that help it achieve results include hiring smartly so every position has stars, focusing on attitude over just aptitude, and having a strict policy against peacocks, whiners, and jerks.
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
PepsiCo provided a safe harbor statement noting that any forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and are subject to risks and uncertainties. It also provided information on non-GAAP measures and directing readers to its website for disclosure and reconciliation. The document then discussed PepsiCo's business overview, including that it is a global beverage and convenient food company with iconic brands, $91 billion in net revenue in 2023, and nearly $14 billion in core operating profit. It operates through a divisional structure with a focus on local consumers.
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
This document provides an overview of content methodology best practices. It defines content methodology as establishing objectives, KPIs, and a culture of continuous learning and iteration. An effective methodology focuses on connecting with audiences, creating optimal content, and optimizing processes. It also discusses why a methodology is needed due to the competitive landscape, proliferation of channels, and opportunities for improvement. Components of an effective methodology include defining objectives and KPIs, audience analysis, identifying opportunities, and evaluating resources. The document concludes with recommendations around creating a content plan, testing and optimizing content over 90 days.
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
The document provides guidance on preparing a job search for 2024. It discusses the state of the job market, focusing on growth in AI and healthcare but also continued layoffs. It recommends figuring out what you want to do by researching interests and skills, then conducting informational interviews. The job search should involve building a personal brand on LinkedIn, actively applying to jobs, tailoring resumes and interviews, maintaining job hunting as a habit, and continuing self-improvement. Once hired, the document advises setting new goals and keeping skills and networking active in case of future opportunities.
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
The document provides career advice for getting into the tech field, including:
- Doing projects and internships in college to build a portfolio.
- Learning about different roles and technologies through industry research.
- Contributing to open source projects to build experience and network.
- Developing a personal brand through a website and social media presence.
- Networking through events, communities, and finding a mentor.
- Practicing interviews through mock interviews and whiteboarding coding questions.
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
1. Core updates from Google periodically change how its algorithms assess and rank websites and pages. This can impact rankings through shifts in user intent, site quality issues being caught up to, world events influencing queries, and overhauls to search like the E-A-T framework.
2. There are many possible user intents beyond just transactional, navigational and informational. Identifying intent shifts is important during core updates. Sites may need to optimize for new intents through different content types and sections.
3. Responding effectively to core updates requires analyzing "before and after" data to understand changes, identifying new intents or page types, and ensuring content matches appropriate intents across video, images, knowledge graphs and more.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
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The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
The document discusses various AI tools from OpenAI like GPT-3 and DALL-E 2, as well as ChatGPT. It explores how search engines are using AI and things to consider around AI-generated content. Potential SEO uses of ChatGPT are also presented, such as generating content at scale, conducting topic research, and automating basic coding tasks. The document encourages further reading on using ChatGPT for SEO purposes.
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
This session highlights best practices and lessons learned for U.S. Bike Route System designation, as well as how and why these routes should be integrated into bicycle planning at the local and regional level.
Presenters:
Presenter: Kevin Luecke Toole Design Group
Co-Presenter: Virginia Sullivan Adventure Cycling Association
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State Why Americans Vote The Way They Do
1. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
Andrew Gelman
Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University
8 June 2009
1/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
2. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The Book
2/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
3. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Polarization: The Red and the Blue
3/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
4. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Polarization: The Haves and Have-Nots
4/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
5. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The New Upscale Democratic Party?
5/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
6. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Red and Blue States
2004 election
6/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
7. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Rich States are More Democratic . . .
Republican vote by state in 2004
UT
70% WY
ID
NE
OK
Vote share for George Bush
ND KS AK
AL
SD IN TX
MS MT SCKY
GA
WV LA TN NC
AR AZ
MO VA
FL CO
50%
NV
NM IA OH WI PA NH
OR MI MN
DE WA NJ
ME HI IL CA CT
MD
VT RI NY
MA
30%
$20,000 $30,000
Average income within state
7/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
8. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
. . . But Rich People are More Republican!
Bush vote in 2004 by income 2006 House exit polls
70%
70%
South
Vote share for Bush
Republican vote share
Midwest
50%
50%
West
Northeast
30%
30%
0 $100,000 $200,000 low middle high
Individual income Income
8/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
9. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
David Brooks and Maryland
“Like upscale areas everywhere, from
Silicon Valley to Chicago’s North Income and voting in Maryland counties
100%
Shore to suburban Connecticut,
Montgomery County supported
Vote share for George Bush
75%
the Democratic ticket by a margin
of 63 percent to 34 percent.”
50%
“In Red America churches are
everywhere. In Blue America
25%
Montgomery
Thai restaurants are everywhere.
In Red America they have QVC, Baltimore
0%
the Pro Bowlers Tour, and hunting. $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
In Blue America we have NPR, Median household income within county
Doris Kearns Goodwin, and socially
conscious investing.”
9/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
10. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Starbucks and Walmart
Wal−Marts per capita Starbucks per capita
10/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
11. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Counterexample: Texas
Income and voting in Texas counties
100%
Vote share for George Bush
75%
Collin
50%
Austin
25%
Zavala
0%
$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Median household income within county
11/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
12. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The Key to the Answer: Context Matters
How wealthy you are is associated with how you vote (and
think)
But how much it does depends on where you live — context
matters
In some states the rich are very different from the poor but not
in other states
Texas and Maryland
12/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
13. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Anna Karenina and the Paradox Resolved
McCain vote by income in a poor, middle−income, and rich state
75%
Miss.
Probability of voting for McCain
Ohio
50%
Conn.
25%
(poor) (rich)
Voter's income
13/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
14. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
What if Only X Voted?
14/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
15. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
How Some Journalists See the Country
“One of the Republican Party’s major successes over the last
few decades has been to persuade many of the working poor
to vote for tax breaks for billionaires.” — Nicholas Kristof,
New York Times columnist
“Who are the trustfunders? People with enough money not to
have to work for a living, or not to have to work very hard.
These people tend to be very liberal politically. . . . ” —
Michael Barone, author of the Almanac of American Politics
15/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
16. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The New Working-Class Republicans?
16/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
17. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Whassup with Kansas?
Kansas
80% 2004
Kansas
2000
Vote for Bush
60%
40%
low mid high
Individual income
17/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
18. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Pauline Kael and Availability Bias
“I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t
know anybody who voted for him.”
— attributed to Pauline Kael,
movie critic for the New Yorker
Availability bias: the tendency to
generalize based on nearby
information
18/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
19. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Michael Barone and Availability Bias
“It evidently irritates many liberal
liberals to point out that their
People
party gets heavy support from you know
superaffluent ‘people of fashion’
and does not run very well
among ‘the common people.’”
The average poor
— Michael Barone rich
American
Second-order availability bias:
generalizing from observed
correlations People you
don't know ??
The people you know are
high-income and vote conservative
Democratic. Therefore . . .
19/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
20. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Polarization is real
Entire U.S. Voters House
Senate
(liberal) (conservative)
Ideological Position
20/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
21. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
30 Years Ago, Things Were Different
Republican vote by state in 1976
1976 election
70%
Vote share for Gerald Ford
UT
ID NE WY
AZ
VT NH CO
MT
ND IN KS MI NVCT
50%
NM ME WA NJ
IL CA
SD OK VA OHOR
IA
MS TX
MO WIPA HI
KYLA FL DENY
MD
NC
AL TN
SC RI MN
WV MA
AR
GA
30%
$15,000 $20,000
Average income within state
21/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
22. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Incomplete Explanations for the Change in State Vote
Is it rich people who are changing?
No. We showed that in the beginning.
Is it race?
Mostly no. Excluding blacks from the analysis diminishes the
effects we see only partly.
Is it the South?
No. We see the effects in the South and outside of it.
Is it inequality?
No. Interstate income inequality has changed little, and
intrastate income inequality is more tied to immigration trends.
22/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
23. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Our Explanation I
The poor are similar in Red and Blue America, but the rich are
different.
We’ve looked at voting.
Now look at attitudes on economic and social issues.
23/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
24. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Economic and Social Attitudes of Rich and Poor
Average ideologies of different groups of voters
conservative
Middle
Republican States
Poor voters
Rich voters
Average score on social issues
Middle
Poor voters
Battleground States
moderate
Poor voters Rich voters
Middle
Democratic States
liberal
Rich voters
liberal moderate conservative
Average score on economic issues 24/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
25. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Our Explanation II
Voters haven’t changed within states—and states haven’t
changed much either, but parties have.
Parties are more polarized than they’ve ever been.
Democratic and Republican voters are (slightly) more
ideologically distinct
Positions by elites are more uniform than they’ve been in the
past. The end of Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog
Democrats.
Wealthy people in rich, blue states are conflicted in their party
choice; hence the flat slope. Wealthy people in poor, red states
are not conflicted in their party choice; hence the high slope.
25/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
26. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Culture Wars and Polarization
“Sometimes I think this country
would be better off if we could just
saw off the Eastern Seaboard and
let it float out to sea.” — Barry
Goldwater
“People, I just want to say, you
know, can we all get along?” —
Rodney King
26/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
27. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
“Opiate of the Masses” vs. “Postmaterialism”
“I don’t know that atheists should be considered citizens, nor
should they be considered patriots. This is one nation under
God.” — George H. W. Bush
“Very few of us . . . could name even five NASCAR drivers,
although stock-car races are the best-attended sporting events
in the country.” — David Brooks
Two theories:
Opiate of the masses: Rich people vote their interests, poor
people vote “Gods, guns, and gays.”
Postmaterialism: Poor people vote based on economics, rich
people have the luxury to vote on social issues.
27/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
28. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
“Opiate” No, “Postmaterialism” Yes
Bush vote in 2004 by income and religious attendance
70%
if you attend church more
Probability of voting for Bush
than once/week
60%
if you attend once
or twice/month
50%
if you never
attend church
40%
poor middle−income rich
28/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
29. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Similar Patterns in Red and Blue America
Republican States Battleground States Democratic States
regular church
0.75
regular church
occasional regular church
church
Pr(Bush)
occasional
0.50
church
occasional
never church church
never church
0.25
never church
Low Middle High Low Middle High Low Middle High
Income Income Income 29/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
30. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Economic/Social Ideology and Income/Relig Attend, by State
Economic ideology and income Economic ideology and religious attendance
MS
0.2
AR AL
LAOK
Within−state correlation
WV UT SDNC
SC TN GA
KY TX
NM ND IANE MI
KS
MO
IN FL
OH
MTID AZ WY DE ILCO
WI
RI MN
ME OR PAVACA MD
0.1
WA
VT NV NHNY MA CT VT NH WA
MEMT
OR
NV AZ ID NM
CA WYFLWI WV OK
MA CO RIDE IANE SDTNAR MS
NY OH ND UT
MI INKS KYLAAL
PA MOGANC
CT MDMN TX SC
ILVA
−0.1 0.0
Social ideology and income Social ideology and religious attendance
VT MT
OR
NH WA CO ID
ME
NV CAAZ RI
WYFL
MA NY NMMIA
0.2
WI ND
OH WV
Within−state correlation
MI IN UT
DE N KSOK
PA MOTX
IL
CT MD VANEGASDTNAR
NCSC
KYLAAL
MS
0.1
MS
AR
WV AL
LA
UT
OK
SC TN
KY
NM ID SDNC
0.0
ND IAKS
MO
INTX
GA
OH
MT ME NE MI
FL
WI
WY VA
AZ OR NVMN
VT RI DE ILCO
PA WANH
CA MD
−0.1
MA
NY CT
$25,000 $35,000 2.5 3.0 3.5
State income State religious attendance 30/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
31. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Takeaway Points
Polarization, stereotyping, and the red-blue divide
Statistics is too important to be left to the statisticians!
What’s the matter with Connecticut?
If you want to understand the differences between states, study
the wealthy.
The culture war is real but is concentrated among
upper-income voters.
It’s easy to get confused: “media center” states don’t look like
the rest of the country.
31/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
32. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
End—Time for Your Questions
32/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
33. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Putting It Together
Rich−state, poor−state gap in Republican vote
among poor, middle−income, and rich voters
20%
Republican vote in poor states, minus
r s
Republican vote in rich states
te
vo
e
om
nc
−i
10%
gh
rs
Hi
te
vo
e
m
inco
le−
idd
M oters
me v
0%
inco
Low−
1952−1968 1972−1988 1992−2004
33/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
34. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Race Explains Half the Pattern
Whites only: Rich−state, poor−state gap in Republican vote
among poor, middle−income, and rich voters
20%
Republican vote in poor states, minus
rs
te
Republican vote in rich states
vo
r s
e
te
it
vo
wh
ite
e
wh
om
10%
e
nc
om
−i
nc
gh
e −i
Hi
dl rs
id ote
M ev
hit
ew
c om
−in
0%
w
Lo
1952−1968 1972−1988 1992−2004
34/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
35. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Religion and State Income
MS
3.5
Average State Religious Attendance
AR AL
LA SC TN
UTKY
OK NC
SD GA
TX
KS
NE
WV ND MO
IAIN
3.0
VA MN
OH PA
WI IL
MI DE
NM FL MD
ID RI NJ
WY
CT
AZ CO NY
MT CA
OR WA MA
2.5
ME NV
NH
VT
$25,000 $35,000
Average State Income
35/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
36. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Inequality in the States
States with high and low income inequality
36/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
37. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy
Partisan disagreement over the Iraq war
100%
Percentage supporting the war
Republicans
75%
50%
Independents
25%
Democrats
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
37/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
38. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy
Support for Korean war Support for Vietnam war
100%
Percentage supporting the war
75%
Democrats
Democrats
50%
Republicans Republicans
25%
0%
1951 1952 1966 1968 1970
38/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
39. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarized Parties: Domestic Policy
39/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
40. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarization in Red, Purple, and Blue States
Republican
Voters
states Senate
House
Battleground
Voters
states
House
Senate
Senate
Democratic
states
Voters
House
(liberal) (conservative)
Ideological Position
40/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
41. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Other Countries: Income and Voting
Asia and Oceania
25%
South Korea
Conservative vote share among rich, minus conservative vote share among poor
Australia
Taiwan
New Zealand Japan
0
Hong Kong
Israel
Europe
25%
Czech Finland
Poland
Romania Sweden
Bulgaria Spain ItalyGermany Denmark
Netherlands Norway
Slovenia United Kingdom Iceland
0
Ukraine
Russia Portugal Belgium Switzerland
Hungary
France Ireland
North and South America
25%
Peru
United States
Chile
Mexico Canada
0
Brazil
0 20,000 40,000
GDP per capita
41/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
42. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Other Countries: Income, Religion, and Voting
Ukraine Bulgaria Russia Romania Brazil
25%
−25% 0
Poland Hungary Czech Mexico Slovenia
25%
−25% 0
Conservative vote, compared to national average
Portugal Korea New Zealand Israel Italy
25%
−25% 0
Belgium Australia France Germany Netherlands
25%
−25% 0
Britain Ireland Sweden Hong Kong Denmark
25%
−25% 0
Iceland Switzerland Norway United States Japan
25%
−25% 0
Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
43. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
National election returns
State-by-state election returns
Race, age, income
Pre-election polls
Congressional elections
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
44. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Obama Did as Well as Expected
Forecasting elections from the economy
Income growth Incumbent party’s share of the popular vote
Johnson vs. Goldwater (1964) more than 4%
Reagan vs. Mondale (1984)
Nixon vs. McGovern (1972) 3% to 4%
Humphrey vs. Nixon (1968)
Eisenhower vs. Stevenson (1956)
Stevenson vs. Eisenhower (1952)
2% to 3%
Gore vs. Bush, Jr. (2000)
Bush, Sr. vs. Dukakis (1988)
Bush, Jr. vs. Kerry (2004)
Ford vs. Carter (1976) 1% to 2%
Clinton vs. Dole (1996)
Nixon vs. Kennedy (1960)
0% to 1%
Bush, Sr. vs. Clinton (1992)
Carter vs. Reagan (1980) negative
45% 50% 55% 60%
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
45. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
The Polls Did Well
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
46. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
National Partisan Swing
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
47. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Swings are More National Than Before
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
48. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Whites and Minorities
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
49. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Young and Old
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
50. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Rich and Poor
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
51. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Rich and Poor, by State
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
52. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Religious and Secular
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
53. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Comparing votes for President and Congress
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Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
54. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Further Questions?
54/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State