RE WritingSample_Jianhao Zeng

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Writing Sample
Market Analysis of Queens West
Contact:
Jianhao Michael Zeng
M.S. in Real Estate Finance
NYUSchack Institute of Real Estate
Class of 2015
Tel: 347-997-0664
Email: michael.j.zeng@nyu.edu
Please do not share or circulate

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______________________________________________________________________
The entire report will refer to “report” as The Market Analysis report of Queens West;
Refer “Project” as Hunter’s Point development project and refer “Parcel 9” as address
4-75 48th Ave, Long island City, NY.
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis of Queens West
Report Statement
The report is to examine the impacts of public use waterfront investment to real estate
market. The mixed-use project of Hunter’s Point, which sponsored by Port Authority
mainly for recreation and residential use, is one of the most important projects in New
York City recently. This report will focus on examining the impacts of waterfront
development, and how the public parks create value for real estate market, image of
NYC, and quality of life, etc. The report is going to use various source of data to
determine value could be captured by infrastructure investment, from various factors such
as real estate taxes, agglomeration, jobs creations and quality of life. The project will also
focus on the trend of Hunter’s Point, in the area of value growth of real estate,
demographic, future development, New York City employment demand, and
transportation, etc.
History of Long Island City
Because of its location advantage, historically Long island city was an industrial area
mainly served New York City for decades. In 1940, right after the completion of

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Triborough Bridge and Midtown Tunnel, long island city became a world-class industrial
center because of it is in the center of Metropolitan area.
Long island city is an industrial center of New York City since 1870. Today, still many
businesses rent storages and showrooms in long island city because of relatively cheap
rent and accessibility. Because of the location advantage, residential developments also
started rapidly since 1990. The rapid growth of land price in Manhattan encourage real
estate developers look for alternative space. Long island city gradually change from
industrial oriented to residential oriented. This report will focus on recent residential
development in Hunter’s Point, which located waterfront of long island city.
Queens West Project Summary
In 1983, an agreement established between City of New York, Port Authority and State
of New York, regarding a waterfront development. The project will focus on the
development of waterfront infrastructures and eleven development parcels, mainly build
around north-south thoroughfare (Center Boulevard.)

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Waterfront creation will include a recreation park bounded by 11th Street Basin to the
north, by the 50th Avenue to the south. Esplanade, walkway, benches, play areas and
playing fields are included in the recreation park. The neon lit Pepsi sign stays in the
recreation park permanently, sponsored by Pepsi Cola Inc. Aside from recreational
development, the project purposed to deliver 4.3 million square feet of residential space,
174,300 square feet of retail and 140,000 feet of public facilities. 10% of residential
development will be affordable housing component. There are four stages development
included in the General Project Plan.
1. Stage 1 includes three residential buildings - two of residential buildings are for
rental. It also includes a public School, P.S. 78 from pre-kindergarten through
grade 5. Senior citizens housing and library also developed in Stage 1. All stage 1
development already finished and it is ready to use as 2014.
2. On Stage 2, there are total seven residential development parcels. Two Parcels is
still under construction. A public school provides 660 school seats are also under
construction.
70%
25%
3%
2%
5%
Queens West Project
Residential
Commercial/Office
Retail
Public Facilities

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3. Stage 3 and 4 developments are under construction and will provide commercial
and retail space.
Potential Pollution or environmental issue
Because of the previous use for industrial purpose, the first concern of development in
residential real estate is the potential environmental issue. Hunter’s Point was the freight
gateway to Long Island. All railroad freight cars to long island will transfer from boats to
rail in Hunter’s Point seaport. The tower that remain today in long island city call

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‘gantries’ and was used to transfer train cars. Since the main function of Hunter’s Point
was seaport, there were no serious environmental issues that hinder the residential
development in Hunter’s Point north and up to 59th Street Bridge.
One of objective of Queens West project is to eliminate the unregulated and unsanitary
conditions of Hunter’s Point. After the development agreement in 1983, the Port
Authority took environmental assessment of purposed development for the area.
---Potential Environmental Risk: For future development (Stage 3 and 4)
The area of Stage 3 and 4 are currently occupied by various commercial uses. Tennisport,
tennis club, Water Taxi landing, beach, public parking, and storage rooms are around this
area. From the currently use, the area of stage 3 and 4 would not have serious potential
environmental issues involve.
However, there is a potential superfund site around the Hunter’s Point south – Newtown
Creek. It is an estuary between Brooklyn and Queens. Newtown Creek is one of the most
polluted industrial sites in America. It contain years of discarded toxins, spilled oil and
sewage along with the industry development in Long island City for decades. The
Newtown Creak located right below the Stage 3 development and should be a potential

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thread for the project development. Indeed, careful, and comprehensive examinations
should proceed before the development process.
There are three positive aspects about Newtown creek.
1. First, the estuary of Newtown creek locates south of Hunter’s Point. The project
development located north of Newtown creek.
2. Second, Newtown Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant is the largest sewage
treatment facility in NYC and expected to complete in 2014. The government
expects the treatment plan can purify and remove most of the toxins from the
water.
3. Moreover, long island city has been moving from manufacturing, food
productions to warehouses and storages from the last decade. Pollution and
sewage creation have been decreasing as the change of industry function in the
boundary of Queens and Brooklyn.
Primary Market Analysis
The primary market of this project is the renter who is middle income with small
household. From the data of Census Bureau 2010 summarized by STDB, total population
is 6,903 within 0.3-mile radius of parcel 9. The median age is 33 and over 50% of renters
have household income $100,000 or above. Most people who live in these apartment
parcels are renters. According to the Census 2010, amount 3,764 households, 75% of
population is renters.

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Primary Market Projection
According the estimation from STDB, the population will grow annually 1.79% in total
population, within 0.3 radius. Compare with New York State and National growth rate,
which is 0.38% and 0.71%, the strong population growth of population in this area will
experience a strong demand for residential apartments. Agglomeration and density also
create convenience to the community. The household amount estimated to growth at
1.9% annually.
Renter
Occupied
75%
Owner
Occupied
25%
Occupid Households

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Secondary Market
The secondary market of this project is low-income family. Affordable housing is a key
economic generator for New York City. Affordable housing policy will give incentive for
grass-root to live and work nearby, and better serve for the community. New York City’s
shortage of affordable housing has reached a crisis point. Therefore, the absorption rate
of affordable housing units will be high. Because government will subsidize the rent,
affordable housing usually will reach to full occupancy. Building affordable housing not
only can decrease the property tax for the project, but also bring can stimulate the local
economy.
Location and Accessibility Analysis
The project located in east side of East River, right across United Nation on 42th Street
midtown Manhattan. The straight distance from parcel 9 to Times Square is about 1.6
mile. QueensBorough Bridge and Mid-town tunnel connect between Long Island City
and Manhattan. People can easily travel between Brooklyn, Long island, Manhattan and
Upstate New York by various interstate highways. Two major airports are within the
travel time of 25 minutes. The closest subway station – Vernon Blvd & Jackson Avenue,
is on the No.7 train route, and is one station away to Grand Central Station.

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Public Transportation – Example of Parcel 9
Public Transportation plays an important role in Real Estate development. Different
demographics have different demand on transportation. From the demographic
information, most of the renters are middle class with very small household size. Most of
them are commuting between Hunter’s Point and Manhattan everyday. Therefor, using
public transportation to work is the first choice for them. There are many kinds of public
transportation available around the residential parcels. Subways, railroad, and ferryboat
are within walking distance. Walking distance to No.7 train subway station is around 6
minutes. According to the ACS population summary, over 66% of workers who live in
Hunter’s Point are using public transportation, and subway is the highest usage when they
select transportation to work.
Driving &
Carpooled
22%
Walk and work
nearby
12%
Other Public
Transportation
2%
Subway
64%
Transportation To Work

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Prediction about Queens West Project
Prediction 1--From the perspective of the entire New York City
New York City is the biggest financial center of United States for many decades.
According the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the top five leading industries in
Metropolitan area is Professional service, Education, Information, Finance/Insurance, and
Real Estate related service. From the Location Quotients, we can observe that the
percentage of employees who work for these industries are significantly higher than state
and U.S. average. These industries require well-educated workforce and younger
generation. Most of employees who work in these industries have Bachelor degree or
higher, and they are relatively younger than the other industries’ employees.
1.3
1.52
1.51
1.48
1.49
2.17
2.07
3
2.82
2.26
Professional Service
Education Service
InformationFinance and Insurance
Real Estate
Location Quotient
United States New York Metro NYC

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Projections also support the trend of employment for the top 5 industries of New York
City. According to the New York State Department of Labor, the growth rate of all 5
industries in New York City are all higher than the growth rate of New York State’s.
Therefore, the overall employment for the primary market is strong and will continue to
have stable growth. The middle-class rental apartments should be popular for now and in
the future. As the rent of New York City goes up, the rent for alternative living place
such as Hunter’s Point, Williamsburg and New Port, NJ will also go up as a result.
Prediction 2—Accessibility to job: A comparison with Williamsburg
From accessibility to job perspective, as the report identify before, there are strong
growth in New York City for the top five industries. According to the map from Regional
Plan Association, the accessibility to work by transit for the people who work in the
leading industries is very high. Most people who work for finance, education, and
professional services are spend 25 minutes or less to their work place, from Hunter’s
Professional
Service
Education
Service
Information Finance Related
New York State 16% 5.10% 0% 4%
New York City 16.40% 7.30% 2.50% 6.70%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Total%Change
Projected Job Growth Through 2020

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Point.
Williamsburg has a similar location compare with Hunter’s Point. L train goes through
between 14th Street and Canarsie. However, most of the office for professional and
financial services located in Midtown Manhattan. Ernst & Young, Morgan Stanly, and JP
Morgan located around Grand Central Station. Therefore, by only looking at public
transportation perspective, Hunter’s Point is more accessible than Williamsburg.
Prediction 3—Walkability and School District
Walkability also is a crucial factor when people making site selection. The project is to
attract more middle-income, small family households to join into the community. Of
those small family households, many of them will plan to have children very soon. Such
factors as libraries, public schools, and play areas are important when they select
apartments. Moreover, walkability to school is preferable because of safety and time
saving.

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Primary market users, who are middle-income households, concern about the school
district when they select their living environment. From the data of NYC Department of
Education, the overall progress is acceptable. Since Long island city was an industrial
area, the school was relative lower quality. For the future, as more young professions
moving into this area, the next generation in P.S. 78Q will perform better because of the
education level of parents. The Public Facilities plan currently includes two schools and
one library. A community center is also on the plan but subject to approval. The total area
of public facilities is 2% of the Queens West project, which is reasonable because the
plan also include parks and waterfront area.
Local Knowledge, Finding, and Projection
From ACS Housing summary, the average contract rent between 2005 and 2009 is
$2,028. Recently, most one-bedroom apartment rent is around $3,018, and two bedroom
apartments are around $3,959. Rent per square foot for one-bedroom apartments in
Hunter’s Point are even higher than New York City’s one-bedroom, because of the
relatively new buildings and designs. From the report of REIS, there are seven similar
apartment buildings available for lease in 0.4 mile radius. Most of them are complete
after 2010 with new design. 73% of available apartments are studio and one bedroom
apartment. The vacancy rate of these buildings are 1.88%, which is below the average of
Queens and New York City, which have annual rate of 4.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

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Parking
 According to the General Project Plan, the entire project will have 5,915 parking
spaces, including for the commercial use. Off-street parking spaces in structures
at ratios of about 0.6 spaces per dwelling unit for residential spaces are proposed.
Valet parking and on-street parking is also available.
$.00 sf
$1.00 sf
$2.00 sf
$3.00 sf
$4.00 sf
$5.00 sf
Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR
Apartment Rent per Square foot
Hunter Points Queens New York
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR
AxisTitle
Average Rent Per Unit
Hunter Points
Queens
New York

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 Because parking space is a good way to anchor people to live the community. In
2000, General Project Plan amendment resulted to decrease 20,000 square feet
residential area to 135 parking spaces.
 From the previous analysis, most of resident go to work by public transportation.
According to the ACS housing summary, only 27.3% renters will have one
vehicle for use. The average number of vehicles available is 0.7, which means
each household will only have 0.7 vehicle available. By matching with the 0.6
parking spaces per unit plus the on street parking, parking space should meet the
demand of residential use for now.
 However, as the demographic change for the renters, they may want to have
vehicle after they have children. Expect to have parking space shortage as the
change in size of household.
Prediction – The Mixed-use development will create demand by itself.
---For Residential Use
Aside from income factors, the development of Stage 3 and 4 will create huge demand of
apartments in Hunter’s Point internally. According the General Project Plan for Queens
West project as of January 2008. In stage 3 and 4, there are 2,350,000 foot of
commercial/office/hotel area will be created. 72,675 square retail space also projected in
the development.
The demand of small apartments will increase after the completion of stage 3 and 4. As
the strong supply of commercial space in Hunter’s Point in the future, the population who
employed in Hunter’s Point will create demand for apartments. Small apartment will be
popular as a result of more young professions work around this area.

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---Commercial Use
Demand for commercial use of space will also increase as a result of strong employment
growth in New York City. Because of the limited office space in Manhattan, businesses
start looking for spaces out side of Manhattan. Long island city should be a very good
alternative office space for business. Agglomeration will attract business to set up their
offices into Long island City because the accessibility of labor poor. Secondly, there are
still many remaining industrial area around Long island city, business can set up
showrooms and warehouses in long island city.
---Retail Space and Public Facilities
There are only 3% retail spaces in the development plan, which considerable not enough
for supporting the big residential development project. Even though there are many
existing retail areas within the waking distance, 3% of retail space is bad plan for such a
big development project. The demand of retail spaces will significantly increase over
time. Laundries, supermarkets, dry-cleans, and pharmacies is necessary in a big
community. Shortage of retail space will occur as more and more people move into
Hunter’s Point.
Supply
--New Construction
Within 0.3 mile radius, there are 3 sites are under construction, 3 sites are already
completed and going to rent out, and 1 sites is purposed. Of these 7 sites, 4 of them are
low-income housing. Total supply for residential apartments is 3,769. 56% of these new
apartments are for low-income housing.

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From REIS, tracking construction activities in Queens, there are 230 units of new
apartments will be delivered into the market. The net total absorption will be 258 units.
Therefore, the vacancy rate expected to go down to 3.0%. 2015-2016 is projected to
average 0.6% annually for new formation of household, which will absorption most of
the units. Vacancy is expected to go down from 2.4% to 1.8% by year-end 2016. Asking
rent and effective rent will increase as a result of huge demand for new apartment.
Some adjustment must be made by this report because the project target to different
income people.
1. The net absorption should be higher than average because big portion of new
completion are for low-income households.
2. The vacancy rate will be lower than the average in Queens because of the huge
supply of commercial office space after the completion of Stage 3 and 4 of the
Low Income
56%
Apartment
44%
Type of apartment in new supply

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project. People who work in office will choose nearby residential complex to live.
However, relatively high rent level also hinders renders.
3. Near by retail store are not enough to support the residential market. For example,
only 4 supermarkes around this area. This is not enough to support a large
community.
Monitoring Strategy
1. There are several websites that update the recent activities in Hunter’s Point. The
websites contain opinions from both residents and real estate developer. The
websites also contain rental and sale information in Hunter’s Point apartments.
New development information, pollution level and transportation information also
available in lictalk.com.

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Image of New York City
One of the purposes of development in Long Island City is to remove negative image of
Queens. Long Island City was an industrial area. High vacancy of residential and
pollution are some of negative impact to New York City. Recently, many art galleries and
museum move into long island city. MoMA PS1 is one of division from Museum of
Modern Art. Over 20 art galleries are located around Hunter’s Point and it will eventually
change the negative image of Long Island City. Moreover, recreation and waterfront area
bring quality of life for not only resident in Hunter’s Point, but also for New Yorkers.
Conclusion
In Conclusion, the Queens West Project is a successful mixed-used project in New York
City. The residential development is exactly meeting the demand of New York,
especially for people who work for the leading industries in Manhattan. Meanwhile, the
waterfront development in the Queens West Project also pushes up the demand for
apartments because renters are looking for a better living environment. Even though the

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relatively high rent and shortage of retail space, renters will choice to reside in Hunter’s
Point.
End

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Works Cited:
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed May, 2014. http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
New York City Economic Development Corporation. http://www.nycedc.com
New York State Department of Labor. http://www.labor.ny.gov/home/
Queens West Modified General Project Plan. http://www.queenswest.org
REIS. Accessed April 29, 2014. https://www.reis.com
Site To Do Business. Accessed April 29, 2014. http://stdbinc.com

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