The document discusses spatial (strategic) foresight and modeling styles for geoprospecting. Geoprospecting aims to anticipate medium and long-term futures of territories to inform planning and management decisions. It specifically considers spatial dynamics and interactions by spatializing prospective scenarios. Modeling is seen as an intrinsic part of geoprospecting, with different modeling styles existing along a spectrum from forecasting to designing the future. The link between prospection and models depends on factors like the social reason for application, the modeler's opinions, the model's function and intrinsic characteristics, and how it is designed for a specific case study.

1. 1
SPATIAL (STRATEGIC) FORSIGHT
AND MODELLING STYLES
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(outline for a paper)
1. Spatial (strategic) foresight – geoprospecting:
the very nature
2. Geoprospecting and modelling styles
3. Modelling geoprospecting in the light of complexity science
Giovanni RABINO

2. 2
WHAT IS GEO-PROSPECTION IS?
A MINIMALIST VIEW:
- (in french) La géoprospective se situe au carrefour de
trois approches scientifiques : la géoprospective
environnementale (Mermet 1992), la modélisation
d'accompagnement (Etienne et al 2010) et la
modélisation des changements des modes
d'occupation et d'utilisation des sols (Kok 2004, Turner
2007);
Giovanni RABINO

3. 3
A MORE GENERAL PERSPECTIVE (RESEARCH
PROGRAMME):
- (in french) La géoprospective vise à anticiper les devenirs
possibles à moyen et/ou long termes des territoires pour
éclairer les actions et décisions d’aménagement et de
gestion. Sa spécificité repose sur la compréhension et la
prise en compte des dynamiques et interactions spatiales et
la spatialisation des scenarios prospectifs. Dans ce cadre la
dimension spatiale est une composante intrinsèque, au
même titre que les dimensions démographiques, socio-
économiques ou historiques.
D’après plusieurs auteurs (Voiron 2006 ; Houet, 2006 ;
Houet & al 2008), la géoprospective ne peut se concevoir
sans modélisation spatiale dans son acception la plus
large.
Giovanni RABINO

4. 4
Giovanni RABINO

5. 5
Domain of forecast Power of
knowledge
Domain of prophecy, Domain of utopia
projection,
Domain of adaptive Domain of rational-
planning comprehensive
planning
Domain of prospection
Power of
action
Domain of futurology Domain of “design
(prospection “per se”) the future”
Domain of “carpe diem” Domain of the “blind
watchmaker “
Giovanni RABINO

6. 6
Domain of forecast Power of
knowledge
Domain of prophecy, Domain of utopia
projection,
Visioning techniques
Regression and statistics
Macrosimulation models
Domain of adaptive Domain of rational-
planning comprehensive
planning
MAS models; CA models
models;
Domain of prospection
Power of
Scenarios action
Domain of futurology Domain of “design
(prospection “per se”) the future”
Simulation games Methods of desing
Domain of “carpe diem” Domain of the “blind
watchmaker “
Giovanni RABINO

7. 7
THE LINK BETWEEN PROSPECTION AND MODELS
MODELLING CONTEXT:
Social reason for application, Modelist opinions and
beliefs,
MODEL FUNCTION:
Action, Learning, Communication
MODEL INTRINSIC CHARACTERISTICS:
Underlying theory, Mathematical aspects,
MODEL DESIGN:
Model adaptation to the specific case-study
Giovanni RABINO

8. 8
Domain of forecast Power of
knowledge
Domain of prophecy, Domain of utopia
projection,
Visioning techniques
Regression and statistics
Macrosimulation models
Domain of adaptive Domain of rational-
planning comprehensive
planning
MAS models; CA models
models;
Domain of prospection
Power of
Scenarios action
Domain of futurology Domain of “design
(prospection “per se”) the future”
Simulation games Methods of desing
Domain of “carpe diem” Domain of the “blind
watchmaker “
Giovanni RABINO

9. 9
OUTPUT:
Geoprospective/planning
Model for
global (geo) Morphological
properties level
analysis
Semantics of Emerging
geo-structures properties
Model of the
system Functional
GEO-INPUT functions and level
structure
INPUT INPUT
Giovanni RABINO