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Q12011 Columbus Retail Market Report
1. Q1 2011 | RETAIL
GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
RETAIL TRENDS REPORT
Connect Four
COLUMBUS REGION OVERVIEW
The Columbus retail market finished the first quarter 2011 with a sizable positive absorption of
198,898 square feet. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of positive absorption for retail space.
The retail market is strengthening regionally and nationally with the National Association for Business
Economics reporting that more companies than at any time since 1994 reported sales gains in the
first quarter. In December, the employment rate was at 7.7 percent but has since picked up to 8.5
percent in January and then dipped to 8.2 percent. Consumers are sure to be out in force as
MARKET INDICATORS employment continues steady upward trends. Continued on page 2...
Q1 Q2
FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS
2011 2011*
VACANCY • The retail vacancy rate improved from 11.9 were only two quarters with significant
percent by 4 basis points to 11.5 percent. The negative absorption. Since the recovery began
NET ABSORPTION retail market has experienced a year of there have been no quarters with negative
positive absorption. absorption. The Columbus retail market was
CONSTRUCTION — —
• The 56,000-square-foot big box, Hobby Lobby very resilient in the past three years.
RENTAL RATES — has been completed at Polaris shopping Mall.
*Projected change to following quarter
Phase one of the Grandview Yard construction
project has been completed.
• Through two years of the recession there
RENTAL RATES
ERRATIC BEHAVIOR VACANCY RATE OVER COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTIONS
Asking Rates
Average asking rental
1,200,000 13.5% rates increased in strip,
$16.00 community, and power
1,000,000
property types. There
Completions and Absorptions
13.0%
$14.00 800,000 was a significant
600,000 increase in the average
Rental Rates
12.5%
Vacancy Rate
$12.00 400,000 asking rental rate for
200,000 12.0% properties of the power
$10.00 subtype because a few
0
11.5% properties are no longer
$8.00 ‐200,000 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
listing very low teaser
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 ‐400,000 rates, which is a good
11.0%
Strip Neighborhood Community ‐600,000 sign for the market.
‐800,000 10.5%
Completions Absorption Vacancy Rate
www.colliers.com/columbus
2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
Delaware County LANDLORDS in transition. The market in the first quarter
Union
County
Landlords are not out of the woods yet but they experienced slightly more than 420,000 square
may be able to see the forest for the trees. feet of square footage in transition. This is less
North /
Northeast Licking Leasing has been strong in most markets for than the first quarter numbers for 2008-10 by an
Northwest County
most quarters in the past year. While there are average of 150,000 square feet. This means the
enough tenants to get the market moving there loss of retail tenants has slowed significantly
CBD isn’t enough for competition to spark an increase from third quarter 2010 to first quarter 2011.
Madison
County in asking rental rates.
Southeast
Southwest CONSTRUCTION
Fairfield
County TENANTS Menard’s construction on Morse Road will be
Pickaway County
Sales are increasing generally across the board completed in early second quarter 2011. The
but the danger of having to pass on the increased Kingsdale Shopping Center in Upper Arlington in
agricultural and transportation costs to the Northwest submarket is wrapping up the
The Columbus retail market includes 11 consumers may slow decisions to move into new
suburban submarkets and the Central
final phases of construction and renovation and
markets. should begin leasing the new strip space.
Business District. A total inventory of 55
million square feet of space with only 1
million of that space in the CBD. Credit remains tough but the capital faucet locally New construction began in late 2010 for a
for small businesses has been loosened with 44,000-square-foot Rave movie theatre next to
local banks committing to small business lending. the 55,000-square -foot Hobby Lobby Project in
Job growth in the region has been good. Grove City. The construction of Hobby Lobby
was completed in Polaris.
MARKET ACTIVITY
The story for the quarter is quieter than average
market activity. Market Volume Activity is the
absolute value of the absorption in each building
and it gives us a measure of how much space is
UPDATE New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates
SALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF SALES PRICE / SF TYPE
2700 Corporate Exchange Jan 2011 $9,550,000.00 174,737 $54.65 Hotel
Drive
2631 Morse Road Feb 2011 $1,212,500.00 37,500 $32.33 Commercial
1309 St James Lutheran Jan 2011 $1,237,000.00 34,192 $36.18 Strip Center
Way
2885 Gender Road Jan 2011 $1,500,000.00 33,146 $45.25 Free-standing
3506 Gender Road Jan 2011 $1,320,000.00 11,197 $117.89 Free-standing
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS LESSOR LESSEE LEASE SF ASKING PRICE / SF (NNN) TYPE
6644-6804 Perimeter DDR CONTINENTAL L P Giant Eagle 19,154 N/A Neighborhood Center
Loop Road
1800-1942 W. Henderson Suburban Centers Inc Volunteers of America 18,281 $12.00 Strip Center
Road
1627-1787 Olentangy Lennox Town Center Bravo Italian Eatery 9,000 N/A Power Center
River Road Limited
8457-8497 Sancus Polaris Sancus Retail Llc Title Boxing Club 7,034 $12.50 Neighborhood Center
Boulevard
3861 Park Mill Run Drive CNL INCOME & GROWTH Lunada 6,894 $12.50 Free-standing
FUND VII LTD
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
UPDATE Market Comparisons
RETAIL MARKET
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
CBD 986,975 56,049 5.68 (7,956) (7,956) - - - -
FAIRFIELD 3,418,174 438,567 12.83 6,200 6,200 - - $9.89 -
LICKING 3,250,240 314,767 9.68 8,037 8,037 - - $9.43 -
MADISON 443,304 5,285 1.19 - - - - $10.00 -
NORTH DELAWARE 1,780,118 288,257 16.19 10,608 10,608 - - $12.75 -
NORTHEAST 15,137,808 1,049,418 6.93 60,263 60,263 240,000 - $13.30 $12.50
NORTHWEST 12,761,732 1,095,154 8.58 55,842 55,842 245,647 - $13.97 $20.00
PICKAWAY 694,724 10,967 1.58 - - - - $8.50 -
SOUTHEAST 9,459,758 1,331,329 14.07 29,149 29,149 109,000 - $10.51 $19.50
SOUTHWEST 6,806,523 1,799,034 26.43 38,371 38,371 - - $8.08 $22.00
UNION 1,157,257 511,02 4.42 (4,525) (4,525) - - - $18.00
TOTALS 55,896,613 6,439,929 11.52 195,989 195,989 594,647 - $11.46 $17.89
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
PROPERTY TYPE Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions
COMMUNITY 8,999,075 1,184,644 13.2 18,491 216,913 - - $14.14
FREE-STANDING 7,656,757 569,248 7.4 75,446 134,374 340,000 - $9.70
NEIGHBORHOOD 17,405,444 2,467,282 14.2 (42,967) (176,097) 254,647 - $11.46
OTHER 27,000 4,610 17.1 0 (248) - - -
OUTLET 184,000 0 0.0 0 0 - - -
POWER 5,016,555 453,920 9.0 3,765 34,336 - - $17.88
REGIONAL 3,828,626 536,515 14.0 0 55,430 - - $10.97
SPECIALTY 250,000 37,938 15.2 13,316 8,523 - - -
STRIP 5,498,921 755,167 13.7 (2,743) (15,679) - - $13.32
SUPER REGIONAL 6,530,997 648,155 9.9 (7,500) 2,554 - - -
URBAN 621,975 5,545 0.9 0 14,412 - - -
TOTALS 55,896,613 6,439,929 11.52 195,989 195,989 594,647 -
QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
Q4, 2010 56,019,350 6,663,024 11.9 57,808 274,518 541,647 110,000 $11.05 $12.50
Q3, 2010 56,019,350 6,720,832 12.0 236,129 216,710 595,647 176,250 $11.68 $14.57
Q2, 2010 55,843,100 6,950,296 12.4 197,025 (19,419) 771,897 - $12.71 $12.56
Q1, 2010 55,843,100 7147321 12.8 (216,444) (216,444) 727,438 - $10.84 $10.37
DATA SET
The retail statistics are derived from a
data set comprising all 20,000 square
foot and above buildings in the Columbus
MSA.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
CBD FUNDAMENTALS
The Central Business District (CBD) incurred
7,956 square feet in negative absorption and
The U.S. retail sector has shown good growth
over the quarter. Three sources are instructive
480 offices in
increased the vacancy rate to 5.6 percent. for retail consumer activity. First, the consumer 61 countries on
Notable movement downtown this quarter was confidence index, the second is a weekly poll
the vacancy of Dunkin Donuts with Tim Horton’s conducted by Gallup, and the third is the Beige 6 continents
at 8235 N. High Street. Book produced by the Federal Reserve Bank
United States: 95
semi-quarterly. Canada: 17
Latin America: 17
NORTH
The consumer confidence index is produced by Asia Pacific: 52
The north submarkets include Northwest, The Conference Board and is a survey of how EMEA: 85
Northeast, and North Delaware. The Northeast confident consumers are in the current economic • $1.6 billion in annual revenue
submarket has been the strongest performing conditions by their spending and saving habits. • 672.9 million square feet under
market with more than 60,000 square feet of In March, the index was 63.4 decreasing by management
absorption. The Northwest submarket has also roughly 900 basis points from 72.0 in February. • Over 10,000 professionals
been a strong performer this year with more In January the index had improved to 53.2 from
than 55,000 square feet of positive absorption. 48.5 in December. The index was 112.5 in July GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
2007, six months before beginning of the
Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM
SOUTH recession. CEO | Principal | Columbus
8800 Lyra Drive
The southern submarkets are Southeast and Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the Suite #150
Southwest. Following last quarter’s recovery average dollar amount Americans report Columbus, Ohio, 43240
these two submarkets performed really well. spending or charging on a daily basis, not TEL +1 614 410 5612
The Southeast gained 29,149 square feet and the counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle, FAX +1 614 410 3312
Southwest recorded 38,371 square feet of or normal household bills. Over the three month
positive absorption. The majority of net loss for Leslie Hobbs
period between January and March the 14-day Marketing and Research Manager
the entire retail market came from these two rolling average fell from $80 to $61 with a high 8800 Lyra Drive
submarkets, where together more than 160,000 of $70 on March 9. The high mark of the 3-day Suite #150
square feet was vacated in first quarter 2011. rolling average was on March 11, the day of the Columbus, Ohio, 43240
first earthquake and tsunami in Japan. TEL +1 614 410 5640
EAST FAX +1 614 410 3310
The east submarkets are Licking and Fairfield The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on Jonathan Badgley
Counties. Fairfield County experienced a small consumer spending twice a quarter in the Beige Research Analyst
uptick with 6,200 square feet of space. Licking Book. The data for these reports comes from 8800 Lyra Drive
qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth Suite # 150
County also experienced a small increase in
district, which includes Columbus. In March, the Columbus, Ohio, 43240
absorption with 8,307 square feet.
TEL +1 614 410 5652
reserve bank reported that post-holiday retail
FAX +1 614 410 3327
sales were generally higher than year-ago levels
WEST
or ahead of plan. Some retailers said that they
The west submarkets include Union and Madison
plan on increasing capital spending during 2011
Counties. Low population in these submarkets
for new stores, distribution centers, and
means that competition between retailers is less
e-business expansion, with corresponding rise
fierce than higher populated areas of Columbus. This document/email has been prepared by Colliers
in payrolls. In April, retailers reported that over
Subsequently, the vacancy rates are low because International for advertising purposes. Colliers
the past 6 weeks sales were again generally International statistics and data are audited annually and
the retail offering is already maximized relative may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly
higher than year-ago levels. Retailers had
to population. Madison County remained and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus
concern about increased prices from vendors, Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, Wall Street Journal,
unchanged. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
which were primarily attributed to a rise in the Analysis, Gallup, and the Cleveland Federal Reserve.
cost of agricultural commodities. No change in
employment is expected at existing stores.
Accelerating success.
www.colliers.com/columbus