Provetic Newsletter December 2014

1. Newsletter — December 2014
SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS ON
RESPONSES TO FUEL PRICE INCREASE

2. 2
Dear Valued Clients,
In our last newsletter, we highlight insights gained
from social media as a window to glimpse the lives
of Indonesians through conversations spanning from
the most mundane individual concerns to the
collective and more pressing public issues.
This month, we try to highlight another use of social
media as a medium that captures public reaction to
government policy. We believe that social
media conversations can give access to immediate
and organic responses from the public by tracking
the nuances of public arguments as they are related
to certain government decision.
Further analysis can also reveal the amplitude of
people’s reaction towards certain decision or policy,
the rationale behind the public’s arguments, and the
impact of internal and external factors in influencing
the public opinion—all of which would give valuable
input for policy makers and stakeholders.
This November, with the government introducing
new prices for subsidized fuels, provides a valuable
opportunity for us to conduct and present to you the
analysis that highlight these concerns.
We hope that you would enjoy this issue and gain
valuable insights from our analysis.
Best Regards,
Iwan Setyawan, CEO
WORDS FROM THE CEO
EDITORIAL TEAM
Board of Advisors
Iwan Setyawan, Roby Muhamad,
Shafiq Pontoh, Budhi Sumarso
Managing Editor
Smita Sjahputri
Smita.Sjahputri@provetic.com
Jl. Kerinci 1 no. 2, Kebayoran Baru
Jakarta Selatan 12120
T: +6221 72799613
F: +6221 72799613
www.provetic.com

3. 3
In the previous edition of Provetic Newsletter
we focused on social media conversations
related to issues that the Indonesian public is
mostly concerned about. We discovered that the
issues related to fuel prices were one of the
most discussed on Twitter.
Last November, just a month after the
presidential inauguration of Joko Widodo, the
new government announced new prices of
subsidized fuel. The announcement, which was
delivered on Monday, 17th of November 2014
at 09.00 PM and to be made valid immediately
as of 00.00 AM the next day, was one of the first
big economic moves taken by the Indonesian
government under the new president.
The decision resulted in the increase of prices
for subsidized Premium gasoline from IDR 6,500
per liter to IDR 8,500; and also Diesel fuel from
IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500 per liter.
In his speech during the fuel price increase
announcement, President Joko Widodo
mentioned that the decision was necessary
in order to save the country’s economy by
more than 100 trillion Rupiah, funds that can
be reallocated to boost more productive areas,
such as infrastructure and welfare.
Although the issue of cutting off subsidized fuel
is nothing new for the Indonesian public, the
decision has been known to be unpopular,
always stirring up much controversy and
polarized responses. Especially since the
increase in fuel prices would subsequently
result in the price increase for other basic
commoditie especially for those with lower
spending power.
Social media has been the new go-to place for
many Indonesians to voice out their reactions be
it of support or disagreement about government
policies. Hence, for this month, we decide to
explore social media conversations related to
fuel pricing.
We believe that this analysis can be used as a
case study to map out public reactions to
government decision. The analysis would not
only give immediate understanding about
people's responses on the specific issue of fuel
price increase but can also be used as a
benchmark for public reactions and acceptance
level of government policies and decisions in the
future.
PUBLIC REACTION TO GOVERNMENT POLICY:
SOCIAL MEDIA CONVERSATION ON FUEL PRICE INCREASE

4. 4
 The decision to raise the prices for subsidized
fuels by the new Indonesian government
under the President Joko Widodo elicited
rather strong and heavily polarized reactions.
 Social media recorded a ten-fold increase in
conversation regarding “Fuels” the day
following the fuel price increase
announcement, however the conversation
level quickly dropped off the next day.
 People’s opinion in social media is almost
evenly divided, with statements of support
slightly more in proportion than the opposing
statements.
 Content analysis of the arguments in support
of the fuel price increase indicated that some
people trust the government’s reasoning and
planning behind the decision.
 Meanwhile, those opposed to the decision are
basing their arguments on the stance that fuel
price increase would hurt the underpriviledge
and the poor.
 Although news media and social media
influencers have proven to hold certain power
in shaping people’s opinion, however, internal
factors such as value systems and moral
foundations that people hold will also have a
huge influence in people’s evaluation
and reaction over this issue.
 We found that the main value system people
use in evaluating the fuel price increase are
security, benevolence, and tradition. This issue
is also being morally evaluated using the
judgement of how it would affect people’s
freedom.
 Different value systems resulted in different
public evaluations and reactions. Those who
value security might be more likely to reject
the decision, while those who value social
harmony might be more likely to accept the
decision.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

5. 5
Public’s immediate reaction
was overwhelming, but the
heated discussion appears to
be short-lived
The issue about price increase as
a result of the budget cutting for
subsidized fuels has been one of
the most anticipated decisions by
the new government under
President Joko Widodo. With the
announcement being delivered
last November, Provetic tracked
the social media converation to
unravel public reaction to the
decision.
Chart I — Daily buzz of
conversation regarding “Fuel”
continues to the next day when
new prices took effect, in which
Twitter recorded more than
400,000 tweets posted regarding
the issue.
Interestingly, the high level of
conversation does not appear to
have lasted very long. Two days
after the announcement, the
conversation level had dropped
significantly, to around 140,000
tweets. Although this number is
still higher than the baseline
average of daily conversations
before the price increase, the
immediate drop in conversation
level may signal that the
announcement did not cause
prolonged controversy as intially
expected.
People’s interest in the subject
regarding fuel prices has been
increasing in the days approaching
the announcement of the new
prices for subsidized fuels. This
trend was observable when we
look into the steady increment of
daily conversation level recorded
on Twitter, starting at from the day
of President Joko Widodo’s
inauguration all the way to the day
before the announcement.
The anticipation regarding the
announcement appears to have
built up a huge momentum which
was translated into an extreme
peak in the conversation. On the
day of the announcement,
conversation level had increased
ten-fold in numbers, compared to
the daily average on the weeks
prior to it, amounting to more than
200,000 tweets. The momentum
Day of Presidential
Inauguration
Announcement of
New Fuel Prices
Conversations regarding Fuel
Prices contributed to 45% the
total Fuel conversation, making
it the most discussed topic,
ahead of topics on fuel
shortage and distribution
N = 1,965,235 tweets

6. 6
People are divided on the
issue, but with some
indication that support the
decision of fuel price increase
As expected of such an
“unpopular” policy such as fuel
price increase, Indonesian's
reactions to this is very much
divided. The decision is deemed
as the first “test” for Jokowi as
the President of the People, which
is reflected by corresponding
heated arguments in social media
conversations.
Interestingly, the data show that
the arguments are divided very
evenly with some indication that
the supporting stance for this
decision is winning although by a
very small gap.
Futher analysis of the arguments
supporting the decision for fuel
price increase indicate that people
are buying into the government's
reasoning behind the budget cut
for subsidized fuels, which is to
reallocate the funds into more
productive areas such as building
infrastructures, welfare programs,
as well as to revitalize the fiscal
economy. This is an encouraging
outlook, indicating the high level of
trust and support given by the
people to the new government.
In contrast, the arguments against
fuel price increases mostly
mention concerns that this
decision is unfair and a burden for
the less priviledged or “Rakyat
Kecil”. Other concerns being
voiced out are increases in other
commodity prices also the cost of
transportation, which is also a
major public concern that we
discovered in previous analysis.
Some also state an opposing
stance against the decision
because they feel that the
reasoning and arguments behind
the decision to increase fuel price
is rather vague and there might be
some undesirable effects to the
decision that have not yet been
taken into accounted for.
Interestingly, tweets that
openly stated their stance in
support or against the govern-
ment decision to increase fuel
prices mostly contain links to
news articles or quotes from
Chart III— Top Hashtags in
the conversation regarding “Fuel”
several prominent figures such as
politicians and political parties,
economic and oil industry experts,
as well as social media influencers.
This might indicate that when
people declare their stance on a
complex and controversial
government policy, they need to
have their arguments backed by
information from sources they
deem credible.
People also appear to use specific
hashtags in labelling their stance,
such as the hashtag #jokowihebat,
to indicate support for Jokowi and
of his brave move. However,
looking at other popular hashtags
used, it appears that people who
are against the decision show
more coordinated "attacks",
especially by spinning Jokowi’s
popular campaign slogans and a
hashtag previously used as an
attack for the former president
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono into
#salamgigitjari and
#shameonyouJokowi.
N = 87,389 tweets
SOCIAL MEDIA CONVERSATION IN NUMBERS
Chart II— Proportion of tweets in
support and against the fuel price increase

7. 7
Media helps people in
supporting their argument,
but it might not be the main
influencing factor
mention these accounts. People are
generating their own arguments —
which may or may not be
influenced by external influence —
in response to the decision.
So what else is at play here? To
understand people’s reactions, it is
also important to view their
evaluation in terms of what are the
things that people value as
important as well as the dimension
in which they base their judgement
over a certain event to be accepted
as right and acceptable, or
otherwise.
In the conversation regarding fuel
price increase, the number of
tweets that directly linked or
embedded news media articles
apparently only accounts for less
than 10% of the total conversation.
Furthermore, we found that social
media influencers such as
individual accounts of @kurawa,
@fadjroel, and @sujiwotedjo, or the
“anonymous” or group accounts
such as @partaisocmed have
relatively more influence, because
in total, these accounts are being
quoted more than the online media
accounts. Prominent political
figures such as @jokowi_do2,
@yusrilihza_mhd, and
@sbyudhoyono are also having
more impact in the general public
conversation than the media.
However, the direct influence of
the messages conveyed by these
accounts is relatively small in
numbers because most of the
tweets regarding the fuel price
increase do not explicitly quote or
Public opinion can be influenced
by several factors, with
mainstream media having most
power to sway public
arguments. However, in social
media, prominent individuals, or
usually referred to
as “influencers” might also
have considerable force in
shaping the public opinion.
Moreover, we believe that apart
from these external forces,
people’s evaluation might also
be influenced by the values and
moral foundations that they
already have.
Top Most Mentioned
News Media Accounts
@detikcom | 19,335 tweets
@kompascom | 15,239 tweets
@metro_tv | 10,524 tweets
Top Most Mentioned Political
Figures and Social Media
Influencer Accounts
@jokowi_do2 | 10,199 tweets
@yusrilihza_mhd | 6,937 tweets
@kurawa | 6,878 tweets

8. 8
well as day-to-day expenditure.
This is especially obvious in the
arguments of people who are
against the decision to increase
the fuel prices. With the fuel prices
increase usually leads to increase
in the prices of other commodities
as well as transportation costs,
they might feel that the decision is
wrong or unacceptable because it
is taking away some of their
freedom of choice as now they
have to reevaluate their financial
choices.
by the important things they
values. Within the conversation
regarding the fuel price increase,
three of the most prominent values
are: security, benevolence, and
tradition.
In our analysis, those who are
against the decision to fuel prices
increase appears to put security in
higher level of importance, as they
put more emphasis in seeking
safety and ensuring the security of
the society. This is reflected in how
they put forward the arguments
that the fuel price increase would
be harmful for the people,
especially the poor and less
fortunate. The uncertainty of other
possible undesirable effects that
might occur as a result of the fuel
price increase would also threaten
their security, hence, making these
people more likely to be opposing
the decision.
In contrast, looking into the
arguments of those people who are
supporting the decision, it appears
that they belief that, instead of
bringing harm, reallocating the
fund would bring greater good to
the society. This argument reflect
people who values harmony and
contributing to general welfare as
of higher importance.
Interestingly, people also evaluate
this decision in terms of how this
part of “tradition” — especially
because this decision, albeit
unpopular, has always been a
move made by the government. As
some people appear to have
already anticipating this move by
the new government as something
that must be done and has been
done several times, this might
explain why the heated discussion
appears to be short-lived.
Understanding the internal
forces that shapes people’s
opinion: The role of values
and moral judgements
Apart from identifying the
foundation of moral judgement in
which people formed the
evaluation of “rightness” of certain
issue, arguments are also shaped
People’s attitudes and behaviors
toward certain issues are mainly
influenced by specific motivational
basis that are directed by the
values system and moral
judgements that they hold. By
identifying these underlying
themes from the arguments of the
people in social media, it would
help us in differentiating the
evaluation of those who are in
support or against the decision
and understanding the rationale
behind their arguments.
In our analysis, we found that the
issue of fuel increase prices are
mainly being judged in terms of
how this decision might be
impacting people’s freedom,
especially because fuel prices
increase might result in
constriction of spending power as
In general, most people on
social media evaluate the
government’s decision to
increase fuel price under three
main values system: security,
benevolence, and tradition

9. 9
One of our main objectives is to
highlight the utilization of social
media conversations to capture
public reactions to government
decisions and public policies.
Following the announcement of
fuel price increase, people are
taken to social media to express
their thoughts and worries
regarding the decision.
Interestingly, there was a
considerable amount of support
being expressed on social media
—which is rather surprising, as
the unpopular decision has
been known to evoke strong
rejection from the public.
The level of aggreement and
acceptance from the public as
expressed on Twitter can be
used as one of the benchmarks
to indicate the level of trust that
people have on the government
and its policies. Content analysis
of the tweets that express
support for the decision can
also be utilized to understand
the nature of arguments and
would not hurt the people
The last analysis highlights the
need to understand the forces
that shape public opinion.
External forces such as
influence from news media
coverage and opinions of
prominent social media figures
(influencers) might play
significant role. Most important
is to identify the internal factors
of the value systems and moral
foundations that people hold,
which would highly influence
their evaluation process and
attitude towards certain issues.
Understanding the content and
recurring theme within social
media conversation would
provide an important basis for
policy makers and stakeholders
to construct the best public
communication strategies for
conveying government policies
KEY TAKEAWAYS AND
FURTHER IMPLICATIONS
© December 2014 — Provetic
Photo Credits:
Cover Photo by Basibanget
1. “Senggigi Port In 1225 Seconds” by Blek
2. “Depok Bus Station 2” by Danumurthi Mahendra
3. “Fuel” by Meaduva
4. “Motor-cab Drivers Queue” by Danumurthi Mahendra
All rights reserved under Creative Commons Liscense
rationale behind the support. In
this case, we found that content
analysis futher confirms the
notion that people have
relatively high level of trust
towards Jokowi and the new
government, as they quickly
endorse the reasoning and plan
behind the decision presented
by government officials .
However, it is also important to
understand the opposing point
of view, as this would be
beneficial for policy makers to
understand the main concerns
of people and address them so
as to minimize further
controversies.
In the case of fuel price
increase, it was observed that
the old argument that this
decision would hurt the poor
and underpriviledged is still
being used persistently. This
might suggest that the new
government has to prove to
the people that the decision was
necessary, well thought-out, and