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Provetic Newsletter May 2015



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Provetic Newsletter May 2015

  2. 2. 2 Dear Valued Clients, Six month have passed since we, as a nation, elected a new president, Joko Widodo, to lead and serve the country. After the last evaluation point on the First 100 Days mark, this month we would like to present to you an extended evaluation on Jokowi and his government to see the development up until the First Half-Year mark. Within the semester, we have observed many issues dominated the conversation topics on social media, especially Twitter. Here we would like to see how it impacted the perception about Jokowi as well as his minister in Kabinet Kerja. Similar to the last evaluation, we would not only provide you with raw data, but also with more indepth information on the topic discussed, sentiment development, as well as perception indexing. Furthermore, we also tried to compare how the different conversational trend occur within the past six month in order to see the different ways people responding to variety of issues and information. We hope to continue providing you with insightful read, and hopefully you have a productive month ahead. Best Regards, Iwan Setyawan, CEO WORDS FROM THE CEO EDITORIAL TEAM Board of Advisors Iwan Setyawan, Roby Muhamad, PhD, Shafiq Pontoh, Budhi Sumarso Managing Editor Smita Sjahputri Jl. Kerinci 1 no. 2, Kebayoran Baru Jakarta Selatan 12120 T: +6221 72799613 F: +6221 72799613
  3. 3. 3 Last February, our Provetic Newsletter had presented to you the analysis of social media conversation on the elected President Joko widodo (Jokowi) and his line of ministers; as part of the First 100 Days evaluation of the newly appointed nation leaders. In the previous analysis, we utilized the social media conversation data to provide insights revealing the reaction of Indonesian people toward several prominent issues surrounding the new government. Furthermore, we also provided data on the popularity, perception, and significant issues of the ministers in Jokowi’s Kabinet Kerja. This May, Joko Widodo has finally reached the half-way point of his first year as the President of Indonesia. Within this period, Provetic has gathered and evaluated the social media conversation data to see how the opinion of Indonesian people towards Jokowi and his line of ministers have developed and evolved. Using Twitter data from November 2014 up to first two weeks of April 2015, we have managed to identify several interesting points about people’s perception and opinion of Jokowi and his Kabinet Kerja’s ministers. Consistent with our previous sentiment, we always believe that social media conversation data can be treated as one of the most valuable and readily available source of information to help identify Indonesian people’s general reaction and sentiment toward certain issues. Not only it would be beneficial in understanding the mass, but it also proven to be insightful to help indicating government success and managing crisis. In this current analysis on Jokowi’s first six months in the Office, we focused our analysis on three main points: (1) major issues that managed to grab public’s attention and generated various reactions; (2) general trend on public’s perception of Jokowi; and (3) popularity and public’s awareness on the government’s programs —especially those stated in Jokowi’s Nawacita. In the second part, we would also be looking into the popularity and conversation surrounding the line of ministers in Jokowi’s Kabinet Kerja. Similar to the previous analysis, we would also present the perception index of the top ten most popular ministers based on Twitter conversation for approximately six months. REACHING THE HALF-YEAR POINT: SOCIAL MEDIA EVALUATION ON OUR LEADERS, SO FAR
  4. 4. 4 Public’s interest in Jokowi has been steadily high, as indicated in the conversation volume throughout the six months, averaging at approximately 15,000 tweets per day. However, it is also observed that there’s no significant conversational peak happening in the latest three- month period. Peaks driven by specific topics occurred mostly on the first three-month period; however some topics continue to become massive concerns despite the lack of significant daily spike in conversation level In general, the level of Twitter conversation regarding Jokowi observed in the last six months indicated that the Indonesian public showed a great interest in keeping close monitor on the new president’s moves and decisions. The most prominent issue that generated heated response at the beginning of Jokowi’s term was the decision to eliminate the subsidy plan for fuel, which resulted in direct price increase of fuel and indirect price increase of other commodities. As mentioned in the previous analysis on fuel price increase, this decision incited a highly polarized reaction by the public. On January 2015, another prominent controversy surfaced following the nomination of Budi Gunawan for the position of National Police Chief (Kapolri). Public immediately reacted to this news, as indicated by the dominating top topics in the month of January. The situation escalated when the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) announced Budi Gunawan as suspect in ‘fat account’ case just a few days following the nomination. What happened next was what people referred to as the “KPK vs. Polri” scandal – which involved a few detainments of KPK officers by the police, which resulted in people’s pressurizing the president to take his stance in the matter. The two cases served as an example of the different way people responding to issues on social media. While the fuel price issue appeared to have elicited extreme response from social media users, despite the prominent conversation spike, it appeared that public’s reaction to fuel price increase is relatively short-lived. On the other hand, the issue on
  5. 5. 5 N = 2,686,829 tweets “KPK vs. Polri” appeared to linger for relatively longer period of time in the Twitter conversational landscape. Although the issue never reached the same conversational peak as the peak in conversation regarding of fuel price, but it is observed that the conversation managed to withhold people’s attention and dominated for a good several months — indicating greater and continuous interest from the public. Controversial issues are topping the charts of most discussed topics within conversation about Jokowi, which might have led to a decline in support by the public as expressed in Twitter In the previous first three month period analysis, we have observed that there’s a decline in the positive sentiment within the conversation regarding Jokowi. High optimism, indicated by 65% positive sentiment proportion, had been consistently declining from the initial high on November 2014 all the way to January 2015. As we extended time frame of the analysis, we observed that positive sentiment has continued to decrease and stabilize at a low point, during the month of February-March 2015, coincided with the rising of “KPK vs. Polri” issue. No significant changes occurred in the proportion of both sentiment in the few months that followed indicated that positive Chart I — Daily Buzz and Conversational Peak’Top Topics on Jokowi
  6. 6. 6 sentiment has not yet bounced back up –and most probably, so does the general support level for the president. What contributed to this decline? Other than the fuel price and “KPK vs Polri” issues, closer look into the other top dominating topics during the first six month period of Jokowi in the Office suggested that most of them revolved around controversial issues, such as the capital punishment for “Bali Nine” drugs smugglers, anti-corruption sentiment and corruption eradication efforts, as well as banning of several Islamic online media. It is not surprising that these highly loaded issues —be it with humanitarian messages as well as religious ones— elicited polarized and heated responses. Unfortunately, it appeared that these issues contributed in lowering the public support for Jokowi, as indicated by the increase in negative sentiment within the conversation throughout the first six months in the Office. into the top expressed public expression about Jokowi and his leadership so far. Most expressed aspirations targeted to Jokowi in social media has been consistently about hoping the president to be more “Brave” and “Stern” in all his decision and political stance Although expression of support for the President is still the one of the highest impression people expressed on Twitter, however it is alarming that negative impressions such as expression of regret to have voted for Jokowi (indicated by the term “Salah Pilih”) and reference to Jokowi’s term as “Rezim Jokowi” has made it As a comparison, conversation regarding Jokowi’s nomination of Budi Gunawan as the Chief of National Police Force generated more than 100,000 organic tweets (excluding bots). Meanwhile, the most popular government program of “Tiga Kartu Sakti”, or the Three Power Cards as part of national welfare program to provide free basic healthcare and education for all Indonesian citizen, only generated around 15,000 organic tweets in the past six months. This suggested that there’s a gap in people’s understanding and awareness of government programs that can be utilized to promote the government (and the president) in a better light among the controversial issues. The launching of “Tiga Kartu Sakti” Jokowi elevated the program in popularity; Unfortunately, other Nawacita programs might have not gained any momentum yet, so far Apart from evaluating Jokowi as a figure, Twitter conversation can also be utilized in evaluating people’s awareness of the government programs. Unfortunately, in the case of Jokowi, it appears that people are so much more interested in discussing about controversial cases and issues instead of discussing about the specific government’s programs.
  7. 7. 7 SOCIAL MEDIA CONVERSATION IN NUMBERS Chart IV — Development of sentiment distribution in the conversation of Jokowi Chart II — Top Impression from conversation about Jokowi’s first 6 Months in the Office Chart III— Most Popular Government Programs (Based on Nawacita’s categorization and terms)
  8. 8. 8 highly popular especially in the evaluation of First 100 Days in the Office. In the second place, Minister of Youth and Sports Affair, Imam Nahrawi has also risen in popularity, especially because Indonesian Soccer Committee (PSSI) had been under the hot seat of criticism after a lack of achievement from the National Team under PSSI. As soccer appears to be one of the sports that was being hold dearly by Indonesian, public’s demand for Imam Nahrawi to fight for the National Team and to rule against PSSI (one of the indicator being the Twitter hash-tag #bekukanPSSI) has helped to improve the minister standing in popularity. Imam also received one of the most positive perception by the public. Other than Imam Nahrawi, other minister who also being perceived most positively are Minister for Acceleration Development Backward Regions Marwan Jafar, Minister for Religious Affair Lukman Hakim Saifudin , and Minister of Culture and Secondary Education Anies Baswedan. Marwan Jafar, with his hashtag #MenteriDesa appeared to embrace Twitter to promote development issues in rural areas — which seems to have gain good feedback from Twitter. Meanwhile, the Minister of Justice and Human Rights, Yasonna Laoly has the lowest index for positive perception. The impact on his ruling regarding the dispute within political party Golkar had made him being referred to as having “double standard” by the people. Chart V — Top 10 most popular ministers from “Kabinet Kerja” Most positively perceived Minister Most negatively perceived Minister Provetic developed a stricter filter to gather and track data on Jokowi’s Kabinet Kerja minister so that the dataset only included organic tweets (not driven by bots/machines). We look into collective evaluation of the public for the cabinet ministers’ first six months in the Office and laid out perception of the public regarding this minister in an index form. Minister of Foreign Affair, Retno Mursadi managed to become the most popular, followed by Minister of Youth and Sports Affair, Imam Nahrawi Upon the completion of the First Six-Month period in the Office, a series of events had catapulted the Minister of Foreign Affair, Retno Mursadi into popularity. Most specifically, issues such as the evacuation of Indonesian in Yemen, “Bali Nine” drug smugglers’ death sentences and the highly regarded event of Asian -African Conference held in Indonesia last month had made Retno Mursadi the most popular minister in Jokowi’s Kabinet Kerja. She was surprisingly outshining “media darling” ministers such as Susi Pudjiastuti, Anies Baswedan, and Ignasius Jonas —who were all
  9. 9. 9 Over the course of six month period, conversation regarding Jokowi as the elected President of Indonesia has been relentless. People have put very close scrutiny over many of the president moves and decision —almost readily reactive to any controversial issues that might arise. However, looking at the conversational trend and the top topics analysis, it is indicative that people were more interested in discussing about loaded issues and more general decision made by both the president or the government, instead of evaluating the specific programs of the government. Among a few popular Nawacita and governmental programs that made Jokowi’s campaign material, it appears that only the “Tiga Kartu Sakti” program launch that receive some attention from the public. Apart from the “Tiga Kartu Sakti”, only the catchphrase “Revolusi Mental” as well as the “Kabinet Kerja” that was being regularly referred to by the public. This provide an opportunity for both the presidential team as well as other government official to fill in the gap within the public awareness of the current implementation of government programs to present the government in better light —instead of responding to other controversial issues (which might always arise, inevitably). This move might be a good approach since we observed that the continuous discussions over controversial and loaded issues, such as the capital punishment, “KPK vs. Polri”, as well as other issues that might have touched the sensitive areas of religion in Indonesia; might have led to lowered Positive sentiment in the conversation regarding Jokowi —which might be translated as lowered support or sympathetic sentiment. However, although promoting government programs might be a good short-term fix for public relation; we believe that Jokowi and his ministers had to improve many ways aspects of the Indonesian lives in order to gain back the support and optimism expressed by the public in the beginning of the term. By responding to the common themes of people concerns — fuel supply, corruption eradication and law enforcement, and economic stability— and matching it with appropriate program on the list, government can help the public to see how they address the public’s most pressing issue and improve their welfare on daily basis. KEY TAKEAWAYS AND FURTHER IMPLICATIONS © May 2015 — Provetic Photo Credits: Cover Photo by Wikipedia 1. “Dukung KPK” by Tempo 2. by US Embassy State Dept./Erik A. Kurniawan All rights under Creative Commons Liscense