I had an opportunity to participate on procurement panel discussing steel procurement challenges and issues for Pipe and Tube manufacturers @ 11th Pipe and Tube Conference organized by American Metal Market (AMM). My presentation provides general idea about global excess steel capacity and what do we see in near term future.
Metal Manufacturing Global Market Report 2018SainathMuntha1
The global metal manufacturing market was valued around $3924 billion in 2017.
Read More: https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/metal-manufacturing-global-market-report-2018
Steel Industry continues to go through a transformation as part of making sustainable product as well as ways to reduce cost.
The new president that is putting more emphasis on US jobs could also lead to more and more business investment in sector like Steel.
The process of aluminum extrusion involves heating raw aluminum in a kiln until it becomes soft enough to be formed. This hot aluminum is further pressed under high pressure through a mold which provides the final shape to the profiles. After the extrusion of the profiles, it is further cooled and then cut into the required sizes. As this process of producing aluminum profiles is cost-effective compared to other processes such as casting, the demand for extruded aluminum profiles is expected to propel in the near future. Moreover, extruded aluminum profiles have fewer restrictions over color and applying methods. Thus, they can be applied via electrodepositing, flow coating, electrostatic spraying, powder coating, and dip coatings. Also, dual colors can be applied to these aluminum profiles, thereby, enhancing their aesthetic appearance. Therefore, no restriction in the application of colors is another major factor augmenting the market growth for extruded aluminum profiles.
U.S. Iron, Steel And Ferroalloy Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “U.S. Iron, Steel And Ferroalloy Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025”.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. iron, steel and ferroalloy market. It presents the latest data of the market size and volume, domestic production, exports and imports, price dynamics and turnover in the industry. In addition, the report contains insightful information about the industry, including industry life cycle, business locations, productivity, employment and many other crucial aspects. The Company Profiles section contains relevant data on the major players in the industry.
Metal Manufacturing Global Market Report 2018SainathMuntha1
The global metal manufacturing market was valued around $3924 billion in 2017.
Read More: https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/metal-manufacturing-global-market-report-2018
Steel Industry continues to go through a transformation as part of making sustainable product as well as ways to reduce cost.
The new president that is putting more emphasis on US jobs could also lead to more and more business investment in sector like Steel.
The process of aluminum extrusion involves heating raw aluminum in a kiln until it becomes soft enough to be formed. This hot aluminum is further pressed under high pressure through a mold which provides the final shape to the profiles. After the extrusion of the profiles, it is further cooled and then cut into the required sizes. As this process of producing aluminum profiles is cost-effective compared to other processes such as casting, the demand for extruded aluminum profiles is expected to propel in the near future. Moreover, extruded aluminum profiles have fewer restrictions over color and applying methods. Thus, they can be applied via electrodepositing, flow coating, electrostatic spraying, powder coating, and dip coatings. Also, dual colors can be applied to these aluminum profiles, thereby, enhancing their aesthetic appearance. Therefore, no restriction in the application of colors is another major factor augmenting the market growth for extruded aluminum profiles.
U.S. Iron, Steel And Ferroalloy Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “U.S. Iron, Steel And Ferroalloy Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025”.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. iron, steel and ferroalloy market. It presents the latest data of the market size and volume, domestic production, exports and imports, price dynamics and turnover in the industry. In addition, the report contains insightful information about the industry, including industry life cycle, business locations, productivity, employment and many other crucial aspects. The Company Profiles section contains relevant data on the major players in the industry.
Stainless steel rebar is most normally utilized as a tensioning devise to fortify concrete and other brick work structures to help hold the solid in a packed state.
[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.3 (2017.6)
On the Cover
The Steel Industry over the Next Two Decades
Global steel demand will rise by around 1% for the next 20 years, reaching 1.69 billion tonnes by 2025 and 1.86 billion tonnes by 2035. Despite some concerns, global steel demand has not yet peaked and will not do so within the next two decades. Steel-consuming industries’ requirements for steel products will become stricter and more diverse under the influence of evolving megatrends. Their needs will become more sophisticated mainly in three areas: high strength and high toughness, high corrosion resistance, and high performance. The rising megatrend of global climate action will compel steelmaking processes to become more eco-friendly. For the long term, the steel industry is gearing up to develop carbon-free technologies such as the hydrogen reduction process. Under the other emerging megatrend of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the steel industry will seek a smart transformation using IoT, Big Data and AI.
The global iron ore mining market was valued at $163 billion in 2017. Asia Pacific was the largest geographic region accounting for $129.1 billion or 79.2% of the global market.
Read report: https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/iron-global-market-report-2018
North America Insulated Copper Tubes Market: Opportunities and Forecast (2017...AzothAnalytics
A comprehensive research report created through extensive primary research (inputs from industry experts, companies, stakeholders) and secondary research, the report aims to present the analysis of North America Insulated Copper Tube Market (By End Use Application, By Country): Opportunities and Forecasts (2011-2021) - (By End Use Application – HVAC, Refrigeration, Plumbing, Industrial, Solar system, others), (By Country – United States, Canada, Mexico: (2011-2021)” North America insulated copper tube market is anticipated to advance at a moderate CAGR of 1.63% during 2017-2021, majorly driven by rising residential construction activities, increasing construction expenditure, technological advancements and recovery in the prices of Copper metal.
http://azothanalytics.com/report/construction-manufacturing/north-america-insulated-copper-tubes-market-analysis-by-application-by-country-opportunities-and-forecast-2017-2021-r12122
Hungary: Tubes, Pipes And Hollow Profiles (Of Iron Or Steel) - Market Report....IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “Hungary: Tubes, Pipes And Hollow Profiles (Of Iron Or Steel) - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2025”.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the iron or steel tube market in Hungary. It presents the latest data of the market size and volume, European production, exports and imports, price dynamics and turnover in the industry. The report shows the sales data, allowing you to identify the key drivers and restraints. You can find here a strategic analysis of key factors influencing the market. Forecasts illustrate how the market will be transformed in the medium term. Profiles of the leading companies and brands are also included.
Stainless steel rebar is most normally utilized as a tensioning devise to fortify concrete and other brick work structures to help hold the solid in a packed state.
[Asian Steel Watch] Vol.3 (2017.6)
On the Cover
The Steel Industry over the Next Two Decades
Global steel demand will rise by around 1% for the next 20 years, reaching 1.69 billion tonnes by 2025 and 1.86 billion tonnes by 2035. Despite some concerns, global steel demand has not yet peaked and will not do so within the next two decades. Steel-consuming industries’ requirements for steel products will become stricter and more diverse under the influence of evolving megatrends. Their needs will become more sophisticated mainly in three areas: high strength and high toughness, high corrosion resistance, and high performance. The rising megatrend of global climate action will compel steelmaking processes to become more eco-friendly. For the long term, the steel industry is gearing up to develop carbon-free technologies such as the hydrogen reduction process. Under the other emerging megatrend of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the steel industry will seek a smart transformation using IoT, Big Data and AI.
The global iron ore mining market was valued at $163 billion in 2017. Asia Pacific was the largest geographic region accounting for $129.1 billion or 79.2% of the global market.
Read report: https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/iron-global-market-report-2018
North America Insulated Copper Tubes Market: Opportunities and Forecast (2017...AzothAnalytics
A comprehensive research report created through extensive primary research (inputs from industry experts, companies, stakeholders) and secondary research, the report aims to present the analysis of North America Insulated Copper Tube Market (By End Use Application, By Country): Opportunities and Forecasts (2011-2021) - (By End Use Application – HVAC, Refrigeration, Plumbing, Industrial, Solar system, others), (By Country – United States, Canada, Mexico: (2011-2021)” North America insulated copper tube market is anticipated to advance at a moderate CAGR of 1.63% during 2017-2021, majorly driven by rising residential construction activities, increasing construction expenditure, technological advancements and recovery in the prices of Copper metal.
http://azothanalytics.com/report/construction-manufacturing/north-america-insulated-copper-tubes-market-analysis-by-application-by-country-opportunities-and-forecast-2017-2021-r12122
Hungary: Tubes, Pipes And Hollow Profiles (Of Iron Or Steel) - Market Report....IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “Hungary: Tubes, Pipes And Hollow Profiles (Of Iron Or Steel) - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2025”.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the iron or steel tube market in Hungary. It presents the latest data of the market size and volume, European production, exports and imports, price dynamics and turnover in the industry. The report shows the sales data, allowing you to identify the key drivers and restraints. You can find here a strategic analysis of key factors influencing the market. Forecasts illustrate how the market will be transformed in the medium term. Profiles of the leading companies and brands are also included.
The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas: Crude Oil is Only the BeginningPLG Consulting
On June 3, 2013, Gordon Heisler, Senior Consultant at PLG Consulting presented at the American Railway Development Association’s 107th Annual Meeting in San Francisco, CA. Gordon’s presentation, entitled “The Energy Opportunity in Oil & Natural Gas. Crude Oil is Only the Beginning,” analyzes and forecasts the dramatic impact of shale oil and gas which has upended traditional logistics and trading patterns in the energy industry, starting an industrial renaissance in the US.
Australia Steel Tubes Market by Product Type, Distribution Channel, End User ...IMARC Group
The Australia steel tubes market size is projected to exhibit a growth rate (CAGR) of 1.50% during 2024-2032.
More Info:- https://www.imarcgroup.com/australia-steel-tubes-market
PLG Provides Industry Update to Stifel Nicolaus InvestorsPLG Consulting
On May 24, 2013, PLG CEO Graham Brisben and President Taylor Robinson presented to industry investors and analysts via teleconference sponsored by Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets. Graham’s presentation was entitled “Crude by Rail Update.” Taylor’s presentation was entitled “Shale Gas – Driver of Reshoring.” The presentations addressed the current crude-by-rail market in the US, as well as industry trends leading to a renewed reshoring focus for US manufacturers.
A Comprehensive Survey of Steel Demand Forecasting Methodologies and their Pr...POSCO Research Institute
This article classifies and compiles the methodologies through a comprehensive review of the literature, and then finds clues to enhance the accuracy of steel demand forecasting.
The approaches for forecasting steel demand can broadly be classified into the econometric and intensity of use (IU) approaches.
Econometric approaches are divided into the econometric demand model and vector autoregression (VAR). The econometric approach widely uses a simple single equation or a simultaneous equation to forecast steel consumption, considering that steel demand is affected by macroeconomic variables including GDP, industrial production, trade structure, and economic volatility. The VAR methodology has the merit of avoiding the weakness of econometric demand model that requires forecasts of exogenous variables since VAR assumes all variables in a model are endogenous.
The intensity of use (IU) approaches rose to prominence in the early 1970s when some OECD member countries observed their steel demand fall while macroeconomic indicators grew. The IU approach is a useful concept that attempts to link steel consumption to the technological and structural changes in an economy.
Mathematical methodologies and computational approaches
Hybrid mathematical methodologies seek to enhance predictability based on the grey model, algorithm, and fuzzy ARIMA model. The steel weighted industrial production (SWIP) index is broadly used by worldsteel and other steel associations.
To complement the weakness of top-down macro methodologies which directly predict total steel demand, POSRI is concurrently applying a bottom-up micro methodology to predict demand for 16 steel products and summing them to forecast total demand.
A 2016 metals market outlook for over 12 markets.
One in-depth guide to:
Aluminum | Flat-rolled Steel
Titanium | Steel Tube & Pipe
Stainless Steel | Ferrous Scrap
Imports/Exports | Raw Materials
Secondary/Aluminum Copper
Nickel | Service Centers
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Fundament drivers behind the Commodities
► The China slowdown effect
► The future of the Copper
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
http://invast.com.au/insights
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Have you ever wondered how search works while visiting an e-commerce site, internal website, or searching through other types of online resources? Look no further than this informative session on the ways that taxonomies help end-users navigate the internet! Hear from taxonomists and other information professionals who have first-hand experience creating and working with taxonomies that aid in navigation, search, and discovery across a range of disciplines.
2. Poll Results and President Trump…. 2
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
Data Resource: AMM Poll (http://www.amm.com/Poll/2753/PollResults/How-long-will-the-United-States-Section-232-protections-last.html)
3. How are things changing in terms of customer needs vis-à-vis sour service and connections in particular?
What factors are being considered by tube and pipe mills in creating a flexible procurement strategy to cope with
unknown raw material prices?
To what extent is 232 driving prices? How can exposure to unknown be limited?
How do these fluctuations get absorbed into the business model? Do producers or consumers take the hit?
Discussion Points… 3
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
4. Domestic Steel Production increased to 81.6 million metric tons from 78.5 million metric tons in 2016 – 3.4% increase.
Overall Capacity Utilization in 2017 averaged 73.9%, up from the 2016 average of 70.5%.
U.S. Imports of Steel mill Products was 34.5 million metric tons in 2017 compared to 30 million metric tons in 2016 –
15% increase.
Import Penetration averaged 26.8% in 2017, up from 25.5% in 2016
Top Three Import Sources: Canada (16.5%), Brazil (13.5%) and South Korea (9.9%)
DOC – Steel Industry Executive Summary: Feb 2018 4
Data in Million Metric Tons, Data Resource: https://enforcement.trade.gov/steel/license/documents/execsumm.pdf
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
5. China had 49% of the Global Steel Production share @ 823
million metric tons.
Top Steel Producing Countries – 2014 5
While the #2 nation – Japan – was only 7% of global
steel production with United States at #4 with only 5%
of global steel production.
Data Source: World Steel Association
https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2018/World-crude-steel-output-increases-by-5.3--in-
2017.html
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
6. China’s steel capacity exploded between 2000 and 2014. From 128.5 million metric tons to 822 million metric tons.
“The extent of excess capacity in China’s steel and cement industries — the largest sources of industrial emissions —
and the need for a structural turnaround in these industries are now widely recognized throughout the Chinese
government and the industries themselves.”
“The expected decline in steel and cement in 2015 and beyond will reduce the demand for coking coal and thermal
coal in industry, respectively.”
“As domestic demand moderated in 2014, China’s steel producers responded by rapidly expanding their exports, but
this export expansion clearly has its limits: it has depressed global steel prices and has raised trade tensions in Europe
and the U.S., with producers in those countries accusing China of dumping cheap steel and pressing their governments
for protectionist responses”
“A declining proportion of steel, for example, is being produced from blast furnaces (which use coking coal), which are
increasingly being substituted for methods that use recycled scrap steel (which do not use coal).”
Chinese Steel Overcapacity & Paris Agreement - 2015 6
Data Source: Grantham Research Institute
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/China_new_normal_web1.pdf
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
7. Global Trade Measures on Hot Rolled Steel - 2016 7
August 3, 2016
AD/CVD on 7
Countries
USA
Nov 21, 2016
Anti-Subsidy
Investigation
launched against
HRC from China
Brazil
Oct 7, 2016
Duties on Chinese
HRC
European
Union
March 23, 2016
Safeguard Duties
India
Nov 10, 2016
Anti-Dumping
Investigation
launched
Australia
Data Resource: AMM Research & Metal Bulletin Research
Apr 20, 2016
Anti-Dumping
Investigation
was withdrawn
Turkey
Mexico
Extended Import
Duties
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
8. Why is the issue so important?
As the second biggest industry in the world after oil and gas, steel production remains an indispensable link in the whole
industry system, providing basic materials to downstream manufacturers and creating enough employment to stabilize
the economy.
What is China doing?
China is in the middle of a painful downsizing in its steel sector. Since supply-side structural reform was proposed at the
end of 2015, capacity cutting has been in full swing.
What does this mean for the global steel sector?
The contraction in China's steel sector will be a relief to countries suffering from the steel glut.
What is next?
The cuts will continue.
China plans to reduce steel capacity by 100 million to 150 million tons during 2016 to 2020.
China Daily Talks About Chinese Over Capacity Cuts - 2017 8
Source: China Daily, last updated 2017-07-08
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-07/08/content_30041248.html
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
9. Top Steel Producing Countries – 2014 through 2017 9
Data Source: World Steel Association
https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2018/World-crude-steel-output-increases-by-5.3--in-2017.html
2014, 1669.9
2015, 1615.4
2016, 1628.5
2017, 1691.2
2014, 822.8 2015, 803.8 2016, 808.4 2017, 831.7
2014, 73.40%
2015, 69.70% 2016, 69.30%
2017, 72.49%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2014 2015 2016 2017
Global China Japan
India United States Russia
South Korea Germany Brazil
Turkey Ukraine Global Capacity Utilization
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
10. Section 232 – National Security …??? 10
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
11. Section 232 – DOC Report to President Trump Feb 11, 2018 11
Data Source: DOC
https://www.commerce.gov/sites/commerce.gov/files/the_effect_of_imports_of_steel_on_the_national_security_-_with_redactions_-_20180111.pdf
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
12. Section 232 – What Do We Know So Far? 12
Data Source: The White House
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-adjusting-imports-steel-united-states/
President Trump signed Proclamation on March 8, 2018
25% ad valorem tariff on steel articles.
“………In my judgement, this tariff is necessary and appropriate in light of the many factors I have considered, including ……., the failure of
countries to agree on measures to reduce global excess capacity, ………, and special circumstances that exist with respect to Canada
and Mexico…”
“This relief will help our domestic steel industry to revive idled facilities, open closed mills, preserve necessary skills by hiring new steel
workers, and maintain or increase production,….”
“(3) The Secretary, ……is hereby authorized to provide relief from the additional duties set forth in clause 2 of this proclamation for any
steel article determined not to be produced in the United States in a sufficient and reasonably available amount or of a satisfactory
quality and is also authorized to provide such relief based upon specific national security considerations. ”
“(4) Within 10 days after the date of this proclamation, the Secretary shall issue procedures for the requests for exclusion described in
clause 3 of this proclamation. ”
Effective from March 23, 2018 12:01 am EST.
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
13. Section 232 – What Do We Know So Far? 13
Data Source: AMM Prices
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
14. Interesting Factual Numbers…. 14
Data Source: Mill Utilization from AISI Reports, US Midwest Domestic Price from CRU, US Mill Financials reported in DOC Steel Industry Executive Summary
Report Feb 2018.
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
15. What’s The Goal? 15
Domestic Capacity : 113.3 Million Metric Tons
Total U.S. Demands : 107.3 Million Metric Tons
Import From Canada & Mexico : 8.6 Million Metric Tons
Domestic Steel Capacity Utilization : 80%
Target Domestic Steel Production : 90.6 Million Metric Tons
Available Tons for Import (Non-NAFTA) : 8.1 Million Metric Tons
While Canada, Mexico and Australia are exempt for now, the total target share of import
will be reduced to 50%. This would mean re-alignments and re-allocation of the steel
products that are being imported.
Facts
Goal
Meaning
Based on 2017 reports:
To be profitable by achieving targeted utilization rate:
What does this mean for Importers?
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
16. What Should We Expect? 16
Domestic price through the roof
Tight supply
Longer lead times
Stable demand for the 1H 2018 mainly driven by
seasonal and structural markets
Short Term Long Term
Faltering demand with higher prices
Clarity and more exclusions to Sec 232 tariff
Domestic price correction
Return of certain steel imports
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
17. What is Borusan Doing? 17
Strategic Relationship
We partnered with the “like-minded” steel suppliers, those who share the same values and have
equal commitments for our customers and our industry.
AMM – 11th Annual Pipe and Tube Conference
Commitments
Downturn was tough but we made commitments to our supplier partners in those days when no
body wanted steel – not for short term wins but looking at long term collaborative support.
In it, Together
We win together, we lose together. We have worked (and will continue to work) closely and
transparently to achieve our goal.
Redefine Efficiency
With open door policy and technical knowledge sharing, we find more efficient practises and
solutions to achieve quality products.