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The Afghan Taliban: A Predictive Analysis
Markers of Sustainability: An Evolving Taliban
• Taliban reversed stance on
the internet and social
media.
• Taliban is putting footage
of suicide attacks on the
internet.
• Taliban uses Twitter and
Facebook to recruit
terrorists and plan attacks.
• Offered judges and Islamic
court system during war—
generates a positive response
from the Afghan people.
• Ability to mediate is a main
source of legitimacy for the
Taliban.
• Taliban civic courts are
cheaper, faster, stronger in
implementation and less
corrupt.
• Recently made deals with school
masters in Taliban-controlled
areas.
• Government schools can open
with a revised Shari’a curricula
and a mullah on staff.
• December 2014: Taliban
reversed ban on educating
women as long as girls are
taught in an Islamic
environment.
• Decentralized organization of
personal networks formed around
charismatic leaders.
• Operates as a “franchiser”—
Networks carry brand, but have
autonomy.
• Losing top leaders have major
impacts on networks, but little
impact on Taliban as a whole.
• The Quetta Shura is the governing
council.
• 2009: reformed system of
government
• Moral, spiritual and ideological
leader of the Taliban.
• Described by closest friends as
not charismatic.
• Has never videotaped speeches
and does not use the internet.
• Shows signs of pragmatism in
dealing with the TTP (Pakistani
Taliban).
• A key mediator in the release
Sgt. Bergdahl to the U.S.
government in 2014.
The Leadership Style of Mullah Omar
• 2004: Mullah Omar had reorganized
the Taliban’s military and political
command from inside
• 2006: Taliban begins aggressive
infiltration of Kandahar and Helmand
regions.
• 2010: documented 6-fold increase in
lethality of conventional and suicide
attacks.
• 2011: innovative use of suicide
attacks inside tactically complex
attacks.
• Present: 60 to 70,000 people
working for them and 15,000 active
fighters.
• Former Quetta Shura member who split
with Omar.
• Named Deputy Commander of ISIS in
Khorasan.
• Killed by U.S. drone February 2015
Peace Settlement Prospects U.S. Policy Options
Organizational Level Analysis
A Lethal Resurgence
Emerging Threat: Splintering Groups and Leaders
Rachel Gardner, Political Science and The Center for Collaboration Science
Gina Ligon, Marketing and Management and The Center for Collaboration Science
• 2012: Taliban opens office in Qatar
for formal talks with government.
• 2013: Mullah Omar states: The
Taliban no longer seeks monopoly of
power, but rather an inclusive
government with modern education.
• Apr 2014: Hikmatyar Taliban
Network allows its fighters to vote in
the Afghan Presidential elections.
• Sept 2014: President Ghani is elected
and makes “reconciliation a priority”.
• Dec 2014: Taliban traveled to China
to discuss reconciling with the
Afghan government.
• Feb 2015: Quetta Shura states:
Taliban is amenable to negotiations.
• U.S. Terms for Taliban negotiation:
1. Stop Fighting.
2. Cut all ties with Al Qaeda.
3. Abide by Afghan Constitution.
• Consider significantly funding the Afghan
People’s Dialogue for Peace which has
reintegrated 10,000 fighters 2010
• U.S. should increase its pressure on Pakistan
and India to bring the Taliban to the table.
• India’s strong connections in Afghanistan
and its goodwill amongst Afghans, could
play a powerful and positive role peace talks.
• Peace deal focus of incorporating the Taliban
into Afghan police forces to quell the rise of
crime in Afghanistan.
Methodology
Solutions for Sustainable Peace
Cyber Innovation Judiciary Education
2014: ISIS declares expansion into Khorasan
Fragmentation Risk:
• Disgruntled Taliban commanders of the
Haqqani network.
• Taliban leaders split peace negotiations
with Afghan government.
Case example: Abdul Rauf Khadim
Giving the Taliban political and civic responsibilities is key to growing
moderation and eliminating radicalism in Afghanistan.
Background
• Question: Could the lure of peace talks give the Afghan Taliban more time to transition from a regional to
global Islamist movement along with ISIS?
• Research: This study analyzes leadership style, organizational structure and lethal innovation to present
markers of moderate evolution that are radical shifts from pre-9/11 Taliban ideology.
• Answer: If the U.S. positively engages the Afghan Taliban in the right ways then the transformation from
terrorist organization into Islamic political party may begin to culminate.
• Risk: Should the U.S. miss or ignore opportunities for engagement, the Taliban could continue fragmenting
and see more of its leaders deflecting to ISIS.

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Presentation3-redone

  • 1. The Afghan Taliban: A Predictive Analysis Markers of Sustainability: An Evolving Taliban • Taliban reversed stance on the internet and social media. • Taliban is putting footage of suicide attacks on the internet. • Taliban uses Twitter and Facebook to recruit terrorists and plan attacks. • Offered judges and Islamic court system during war— generates a positive response from the Afghan people. • Ability to mediate is a main source of legitimacy for the Taliban. • Taliban civic courts are cheaper, faster, stronger in implementation and less corrupt. • Recently made deals with school masters in Taliban-controlled areas. • Government schools can open with a revised Shari’a curricula and a mullah on staff. • December 2014: Taliban reversed ban on educating women as long as girls are taught in an Islamic environment. • Decentralized organization of personal networks formed around charismatic leaders. • Operates as a “franchiser”— Networks carry brand, but have autonomy. • Losing top leaders have major impacts on networks, but little impact on Taliban as a whole. • The Quetta Shura is the governing council. • 2009: reformed system of government • Moral, spiritual and ideological leader of the Taliban. • Described by closest friends as not charismatic. • Has never videotaped speeches and does not use the internet. • Shows signs of pragmatism in dealing with the TTP (Pakistani Taliban). • A key mediator in the release Sgt. Bergdahl to the U.S. government in 2014. The Leadership Style of Mullah Omar • 2004: Mullah Omar had reorganized the Taliban’s military and political command from inside • 2006: Taliban begins aggressive infiltration of Kandahar and Helmand regions. • 2010: documented 6-fold increase in lethality of conventional and suicide attacks. • 2011: innovative use of suicide attacks inside tactically complex attacks. • Present: 60 to 70,000 people working for them and 15,000 active fighters. • Former Quetta Shura member who split with Omar. • Named Deputy Commander of ISIS in Khorasan. • Killed by U.S. drone February 2015 Peace Settlement Prospects U.S. Policy Options Organizational Level Analysis A Lethal Resurgence Emerging Threat: Splintering Groups and Leaders Rachel Gardner, Political Science and The Center for Collaboration Science Gina Ligon, Marketing and Management and The Center for Collaboration Science • 2012: Taliban opens office in Qatar for formal talks with government. • 2013: Mullah Omar states: The Taliban no longer seeks monopoly of power, but rather an inclusive government with modern education. • Apr 2014: Hikmatyar Taliban Network allows its fighters to vote in the Afghan Presidential elections. • Sept 2014: President Ghani is elected and makes “reconciliation a priority”. • Dec 2014: Taliban traveled to China to discuss reconciling with the Afghan government. • Feb 2015: Quetta Shura states: Taliban is amenable to negotiations. • U.S. Terms for Taliban negotiation: 1. Stop Fighting. 2. Cut all ties with Al Qaeda. 3. Abide by Afghan Constitution. • Consider significantly funding the Afghan People’s Dialogue for Peace which has reintegrated 10,000 fighters 2010 • U.S. should increase its pressure on Pakistan and India to bring the Taliban to the table. • India’s strong connections in Afghanistan and its goodwill amongst Afghans, could play a powerful and positive role peace talks. • Peace deal focus of incorporating the Taliban into Afghan police forces to quell the rise of crime in Afghanistan. Methodology Solutions for Sustainable Peace Cyber Innovation Judiciary Education 2014: ISIS declares expansion into Khorasan Fragmentation Risk: • Disgruntled Taliban commanders of the Haqqani network. • Taliban leaders split peace negotiations with Afghan government. Case example: Abdul Rauf Khadim Giving the Taliban political and civic responsibilities is key to growing moderation and eliminating radicalism in Afghanistan. Background • Question: Could the lure of peace talks give the Afghan Taliban more time to transition from a regional to global Islamist movement along with ISIS? • Research: This study analyzes leadership style, organizational structure and lethal innovation to present markers of moderate evolution that are radical shifts from pre-9/11 Taliban ideology. • Answer: If the U.S. positively engages the Afghan Taliban in the right ways then the transformation from terrorist organization into Islamic political party may begin to culminate. • Risk: Should the U.S. miss or ignore opportunities for engagement, the Taliban could continue fragmenting and see more of its leaders deflecting to ISIS.