2. INVESTMENT THESIS
1. Capex delays in Chinese Auto Market
2. Yen Weakening Enhances Price Competition
3. PCB Drilling Struggles in Transition
1
Investment Theses
Chinese Auto
Market
Yen Depreciation PCB Drilling Valuation
3. Capex Delays in Chinese Auto Market
• 25% revenue derived from Chinese local auto makers in 2012
• Demand from auto makers expected to plunge
2
Investment Theses
Chinese Auto
Market
Yen Depreciation PCB Drilling Valuation
4. -75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
0
100
200
300
400
Jan,2011
Jul,2011
Jan,2012
Jul,2012
Jan,2013
Sale Volume of Japan Manufacturers YoY
Japanese auto sales in China shrink after anti-JP protest
Customer vehicle sales have weakened since 2011
5.2%
26.0%
29.8%
-6.1% -5.5%
3.1% 2.8% 2.8%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
(Unit: mn)
CV Shipments YoY
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
• Japanese motor sales dropped
• CV market will continue to be
flat in next 3 years
• The boost in demand was
triggered by stimulus during
2009 to 2010 but growth will
revert to double digits in next
3 years
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
6.7%
45.4%
32.4%
2.5%
4.3%
12.4%
12.0% 12.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
Car Shipments YoY
Source: CAAM, Team Estimate
Overcapacity limits machinery demand
(Unit: mn)(Unit: k)
3
5. 0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
IndustryAverage
SAIC
GreatWall
Dongfeng
Brilliance
CCAG
JAC
Geely
GAC
BYD
FAW
2011 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f)
3.4%
18.7%
8.0%
72.1%
54.6%
-29.4%
13.6% 16.0%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
Capex YoY
(RMB bn)
Source: DataStream, Team Estimate
Capex will be postpone to 2H14 • Chinese auto makers have built
large capacity through 2012, which
leads to falling capacity utilization
among the industry
• We expect auto makers will
postpone capacity expansion in
2013
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
Jan,2011
Apr,2011
Jul,2011
Oct,2011
Jan,2012
Apr,2012
Jul,2012
Oct,2012
Jan,2013
Apr,2013
(Units: 10k)
Inability to sell high inventory will deter expansion
Source: Goldman Sachs
Auto makers delay expansion on 80% capacity utilization
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
4
6. Yen Weakening Enhances Price Competition
5
Investment Theses
Chinese Auto
Market
Yen Depreciation PCB Drilling Valuation
7. FX Change
Order
• Price competition
• Market determination
Shipment
• Sales recognition
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013
JPY/USD TWD/USD KRW/USD
1 Month
22% Yen Depreciation since Oct. 2012
3 Months
Source: Team Estimate
6
8. -25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013
JPY/USD TWD/USD KRW/USD
Taiwanese and Korean Currencies under Depreciation Pressure in Jan. 2013
FX Change
Order
• Price competition
• Market determination
Shipment
• Sales recognition
1 Month
3 Months
Source: Team Estimate
7
9. -25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013
JPY/USD TWD/USD KRW/USD
FX Change
Order
• Price competition
• Market determination
Shipment
• Sales recognition
1 Month
3 Months
Price Reduction to be Recognized in May
Source: Team Estimate
8
11. 80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013
JP TW KR
• Maintain current
selling prices
Fall in sales and market
share
• Reduce selling prices
Fall in gross profit
30%
10%
Price Difference Narrows to 10%
Source: Team Estimate
10
12. Mechanical Drilling Struggles in Transition
11
Investment Theses
Chinese Auto
Market
Yen Depreciation PCB Drilling Valuation
13. • ASP decreases under fierce
competition
• Shipments remain flat as the
demand for laser drilling
cannibalizes that for
mechanical drilling
(NTD 10k)
(NTD bn)
Drilling machine sales to tumble
Source: Team Estimate
Source: Team EstimateSource: Team Estimate
ASP to drop because of price competition Shipments continue to decline through 2015
$1.22
$1.14
$1.13
$1.03
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
$350.86
$333.32
$323.41
$313.80
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
348
342
348
329
315
320
325
330
335
340
345
350
2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
(Units)
12
14. 306
548
331
210
719
325 348 342 348 329
15%
22%
19%
29%
25% 25% 25%
23% 22%
20%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
Shipment Market Share • ASP has moved down
12% for Japanese PCB
drilling machine
manufacturers
• Tong-tai does not retain
its price competitiveness
and will suffer
decreasing market share
• PCB markers are to
invested more capex in
any layer HDI
Tong-tai’s market share to decrease
(Units)
Any layer HDI cannibalizes market for traditional PCB
(NTD bn)
iPhone 4
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Team Estimate
6.61
2.83
10.59
4.82 4.89 5.22 5.28 5.32
30%
26%
39%
17%
19% 19% 18% 17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f)
Capex Capex on Mechanical Drilling % of Capex
13
21. I. Penetration Rate
II. Active Population
2.37 2.87 2.55 2.69 3.00 3.31 3.11 2.95 2.86 2.83
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F) 2015(F)
Scooter Sales
Source: BMI, Team Estimate
Age 2012 2015(F) Growth Rate
15-19 8,161 6,806 -17%
20-24 9,115 8,892 -2%
25-29 8,602 8,862 3%
30-34 7,575 8,202 8%
35-39 6,770 6,991 3%
40-44 6,304 6,609 5%
45-49 5,761 6,012 4%
50-54 4,936 5,449 10%
55-59 4,001 4,446 11%
60-64 2,573 3,455 34%
Total 63,798 65,724 3%
Low Growth Rate in Active Population
Source: BMI
(Unit: mn)
(Units: k)
Population: 90 mn
Motorcycle: 25 mn
Penetration Rate: 27.7%
3.6 persons / unit
Scooter Market in Vietnam
22. • Chinese businesses in
rural area buy LDTs for
transportation and
logistics
• Manufacturers have cut
demand for trucks owing
to shrinking export
activities
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan,
2010
Jul,
2010
Jan,
2011
Jul,
2011
Jan,
2012
Jul,
2012
Jan,
2013
China Export YoY LDT Sales Volume YoY
Light-Duty Truck Market
1
23. 0
5
10
15
20
Jan, 2010 Jul, 2010 Jan, 2011 Jul, 2011 Jan, 2012
(Units: 10K)
Sinotruk Shipments
16.3%
17.2%
20.6%
13.2%
13.5%
19.2%
FAW
Sinotruk
Dongfeng
Shaanxi
Beijing Foton
Others
Tong-tai’s customer base is
mainly composed of heavy-
duty truck manufacturers
Headwinds
1. Railway substitution effect
2. Deterioration in fixed-
asset investment in China
Source: CAAM
Source: TEJ, CAAM
Tong-tai’s Main Customers
24. • Sales volume grew during
2009-2010 with a following
surge in capex but sagged
below 5% after 2011. The
stalling growth will lead to
falling capacity utilization
and excess capacity. We,
therefore, forecast a
remarkable drop in capex
for auto industry in 2013.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013(f)
2014(f)
2015(f)
Auto Market
Sales Volume YoY Capex YoY
Capex Leads Sales Volume
Source: CAAM, Company Data, Team Estimate