Dokumen tersebut membahas kasus persaingan di pasar telekomunikasi selular Indonesia antara Telkomsel dan Indosat yang ditinjau oleh KPPU. KPPU menemukan bukti adanya pelanggaran terkait kepemilikan silang dan praktik monopoli oleh Telkomsel dan perusahaan terkait Temasek. Namun, analisis KPPU dikritik karena dianggap kurang memadai dalam membuktikan adanya price fixing. Dokumen ini kemudian menyajikan analisis alternatif mengenai h

1. Persaingan di pasar telekomunikasi selular: analisa alternatif kasus Temasek Rolly Purnomo

8. Analisa Alternatif

11. Literature Two-way Access Non-Linear and Non-discriminatory (Ex. Fixed-telephone) Linear and Non-Discriminatory RETAIL PRICE Two-way Access Non-Linear and Discriminatory (Ex. Post-paid mobile) Linear and Discriminatory (Ex. Pre-paid mobile) Collusive effect of high access price Profit Neutrality of Access Price Profit Neutrality of Access Price Partial collusive effect of access price On-net / off-net price differential Partial collusive effect of access price On-net / off-net price differential TOPICS

12. Prepaid vs postpaid Subscribers Post-paid Pre-paid - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

19. Pricing Dilemma: non-cooperative or collusive price non-cooperative prices (Po)  if the operators set profit-maximizing prices. Collusive outcome (both Pc)  if the operators set price above their profit-maximizing levels. operator y p o p c operator x p o 4 , 4 10 , 2 p c 2 , 10 7 , 7

20. Model Total profit = on-net profit + profit from originating outgoing off-net calls + profit from terminating incoming off-net calls - fixed cost operator i i 1 i n operator j subscribers subscribers interconnection j 1 j n On-net call On-net call Off-net call network i network j

21. Model s i 2  on-net call ; s i s j  off-net call s = market share  Jika Profit maximizing price q = average duration of call

22. Model Jika

23. On-net Peak Hours

25. Mengestimasi Price Elasticity of Usage Demand ( η qii ) Parameter Simpati (Telkomsel) Kartu As (Telkomsel) XL-Bebas (Excelcom) Mentari (Indosat) IM3 (Indosat) % Price reduction Constant 3.712* (1.006) -0.367 (0.313) 2.662* (0.913) -0.415 (0.284) 1.300* (0.429) -0.007 (0.133) 2.999* (0.977) -0.299 (0.304) 2.390* (0.585) -0.238 (0.182) Observation F-Statistics Adjusted R-Squared 255 13.62 0.05 54 8.50 0.12 126 9.19 0.06 114 9.43 0.07 150 16.72 0.10 (*) p< 1% ; (**) p< 5% ; (***)p<10%; the number in parentheses is standard-error

26. Mengestimasi Traffic Ratio (Off-net/On-net) ( q ij / q ii ) Pre-paid Plan Average Usage Duration (in minute) Peak Hours Off-peak Hours On-net Off-net To Fix On-net Off-net To Fix Simpati – Telkomsel 41.93 17.53 9.63 24.14 7.43 6.40 Kartu As - Telkomsel 37.26 13.18 3.18 18.39 6.08 2.04 XL – Excelcomindo 115.12 35.62 16.00 35.81 11.10 6.20 Mentari – Indosat 85.28 40.31 20.08 31.27 12.11 5.62 IM3 – Indosat 39.93 14.94 4.22 19.63 3.97 0.86 Pre-paid Plan Traffic Ratio (Off-net/On-net) Peak Hours Off-peak Hours Simpati – Telkomsel 0.42 0.31 Kartu As – Telkomsel 0.35 0.33 XL – Excelcomindo 0.31 0.31 Mentari – Indosat 0.47 0.39 IM3 – Indosat 0.37 0.20

27. Mengestimasi Off-net price/cost Ratio ( k ) & Actual Price Differential ( d ) Pre-paid Plan Average Price (Rp) k d Off-net On-net 2006 Simpati – Telkomsel 1,455 1,364 1.79 0.94 Kartu As – Telkomsel 2,011 1,068 2.48 0.53 XL – Excelcomindo 1,466 1,202 1.81 0.82 Mentari – Indosat 1,450 1,398 1.79 0.96 IM3 – Indosat 1,409 909 1.74 0.65 2007 Simpati – Telkomsel 1,455 1,364 1.79 0.94 Kartu As – Telkomsel 2,182 1,091 2.69 0.50 XL – Excelcomindo 1,366 935 1.68 0.68 Mentari – Indosat 1,364 1,364 1.68 1.00 IM3 – Indosat 1,409 909 1.74 0.65 Source: various publications

28. Mengestimasi market share (s) Pre-paid Plan Subscribers (market share) 2006 Subscribers (market share) 2007 Simpati – Telkomsel 21,378,000 (36.3%) 23,986,000 (28.2%) Kartu As - Telkomsel 12,557,000 (21.3%) 21,991,000 (25.9%) XL - Excelcomindo 9,141,000 (15.5%) 14,988,000 (17.7%) Mentari – Indosat 8,733,329* (14.8%) 13,169,987* (15.5%) IM3 – Indosat 7,145,451* (12.1%) 10,775,444* (12.7%) (*) Estimated based on previous year proportion Source: Quarterly and Annual Reports of Telkomsel, Indosat, and Excelcomindo

29. Mengestimasi Fixed-cost Factor Operating Expense (billion Rps) Operating Revenue (billion Rps) EBITDA (billion Rps) x 2006 Telkomsel 12,836 29,145 20,737 0.763 Indosat 8,840.7 12,239.4 5,187.5 0.852 Excelcomindo (XL) 3,224 6,466 3,912 0.412 2007 Telkomsel 16,791 36,670 25,604 0.758 Indosat 11,968.9 16,488.5 8,714.8 0.769 Excelcomindo (XL) 4,480 8,365 3,509 0.461 Source: Annual Reports of Telkomsel (2007), Indosat (2007),and Excelcomindo (2007)

30. Hasil Perhitungan dan Analisa 2006  collusive outcome untuk ketiga operator 2007  collusive outcome untuk Telkomsel dan Indosat

33. Terima Kasih