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Predicting Box Office Revenues Allison Tamaki
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outline
Revenue Patterns TYPE 2  Sleeper ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],TYPE 1  Blockbuster
Release Date: July 18, 2008  11
Release Date: April 19, 2002  11 ↑
Eliashberg and Sawhney’s  Time-to-Decide  &  Time-to-Act  Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Eliashberg, Jehoshua, Mohanbir S. Sawhney. (1996). A Parsimonious Model for  Forecasting Gross Box-Office Revenues of Motion Pictures.  Marketing Science,  15:2, 113-131.
Distributions of Time-to-Decide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Distribution of Time-to-Act ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Recall : ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Probability of Seeing Movie by time t
Estimating  λ  and  γ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Estimating   λ   and   γ   for   the   Dark   Knight ,[object Object]
 
Revenue “Determinants” Entertainment Weekly’s 25 Best Actors of the 90s The Movie Times’ Top 20 Actors Best/Top Actors Academy Award Wins/Nominations Awards R  NC-17  U G  PG  PG-13 MPAA Rating Not Summer Summer (Memorial Day-Labor Day) Release Date Children’s  Comedy Documentary  Drama Action  Science Fiction Horror  Thriller Genre NEGATIVE POSITIVE DETERMINANT
Using “Determinants” to Predict Gross Revenue ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Simonoff, Jeffrey S., Ilana R. Sparrow. (2000). Predicting Movie Grosses: Winners and  losers, blockbusters and sleepers.  Stern School of Business, New York University.
0.712 TOP DOLLAR ACTORS 0.400 BEST ACTORS 0.150 Yes -0.150 No SUMMER RELEASE -1.028 U (unrated) -0.118 NC-17 -0.079 R 0.312 PG-13 0.380 PG 0.534 G MPAA Rating 0.267 Thriller 0.693 Science Fiction 0.513 Horror -0.408 Drama -1.248 Documentary -0.189 Comedy -0.030 Children’s 0.401 Action GENRE 0.394 CONSTANT COEFFICIENT  ( β ij ) CATEGORY “ DETERMINANT”
Predicting Gross Revenue for The Dark Knight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Dark Knight would be predicted to make $233.88 million Actual Gross = $533 million
Limitations of Gross Revenue Prediction Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s Next… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THANK YOU! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Predicting Box Office Revenues

  • 1. Predicting Box Office Revenues Allison Tamaki
  • 2.  
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Release Date: July 18, 2008 11
  • 6. Release Date: April 19, 2002 11 ↑
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.  
  • 14. Revenue “Determinants” Entertainment Weekly’s 25 Best Actors of the 90s The Movie Times’ Top 20 Actors Best/Top Actors Academy Award Wins/Nominations Awards R NC-17 U G PG PG-13 MPAA Rating Not Summer Summer (Memorial Day-Labor Day) Release Date Children’s Comedy Documentary Drama Action Science Fiction Horror Thriller Genre NEGATIVE POSITIVE DETERMINANT
  • 15.
  • 16. 0.712 TOP DOLLAR ACTORS 0.400 BEST ACTORS 0.150 Yes -0.150 No SUMMER RELEASE -1.028 U (unrated) -0.118 NC-17 -0.079 R 0.312 PG-13 0.380 PG 0.534 G MPAA Rating 0.267 Thriller 0.693 Science Fiction 0.513 Horror -0.408 Drama -1.248 Documentary -0.189 Comedy -0.030 Children’s 0.401 Action GENRE 0.394 CONSTANT COEFFICIENT ( β ij ) CATEGORY “ DETERMINANT”
  • 17.
  • 18. The Dark Knight would be predicted to make $233.88 million Actual Gross = $533 million
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.