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Post Pandemic Economy
Adapting your Career &Trade Post-
COVID-19
Engr. Akachidike Kanu
Webinar Lecture presented to:
Democratic LeadershipTraining Workshop Group
(In Affiliation with Africa Leadership Forum Otta Nigeria)
Probabilistic Recovery Models
Most Pessimistic
Possible
More Likely
Optimistic
Most Optimistic
• Shorter term pandemic
• Postponed/revenge spend
• Short-medium term pandemic
• Forgone/recovered spend
• Medium-Long term pandemic
• Slow recovery
• Second wave pandemic
• Multiple V (how many?)
• Longest term pandemic
• Lost investment and
rethinking of global
value chains
• Permanent change to
fiscal policy
• A slowdown in
productivity growth
Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies
at Brookings
Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies
at Brookings
Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies
at Brookings
Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies
at Brookings
Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies
at Brookings
Historical References
Impact of SARS in Hong Kong during the Q2 2003.
Quarterly GDP growth per cent (Source: European
Commission)
Spanish Flu (Source: US Census Bureau,
Macrobond, Rabobank)
Consider other/similar post war and post pandemic
economic recovery patterns
Historical References
Impact of SARS in Hong Kong during the Q2 2003.
Quarterly GDP growth per cent
(Source: European Commission)
Impact of Spanish Flu on working age
population growth
(Source: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Rabobank)
• What’s your base
recovery scenario?
• What will be the
“new normal”
irrespective of
recovery scenario
• What’s my response
plan?
• Sectoral analysis
Business Adaptation
Sectoral Analysis
• Education - Hybrid “school-home” schooling model?
• Hospitality - airline, hotels, Airbnb/sharing
• Real Estate - Office/commercial vs residential
• Finance – Credits, interest rate and liquidity, govt.
debt/stimulus (vulnerability of emerging markets)
• Heavy Industry - Rise of teleworking + robotics
• Equity Investment – “V” pointers already. What’s next
• Lessons from the Great Recession
• Other/General
• Uncertainty Management
• Consider a business specific SWOT analysis
Career Adaptation
• Focus on skills that enable the
“new normal”
• Leverage new wave of
free/subsidized online training &
development events.
• Teleworking and online working
skills
• Change and organizational
systems management
• Technical vs managerial skills
• Benchmark from historical
recession experience
• What’s your plan?
Thank You!
Discussions and Q &A!

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Post pendemic economy: Adapt Your Career and Trade

  • 1. Post Pandemic Economy Adapting your Career &Trade Post- COVID-19 Engr. Akachidike Kanu Webinar Lecture presented to: Democratic LeadershipTraining Workshop Group (In Affiliation with Africa Leadership Forum Otta Nigeria)
  • 2. Probabilistic Recovery Models Most Pessimistic Possible More Likely Optimistic Most Optimistic • Shorter term pandemic • Postponed/revenge spend • Short-medium term pandemic • Forgone/recovered spend • Medium-Long term pandemic • Slow recovery • Second wave pandemic • Multiple V (how many?) • Longest term pandemic • Lost investment and rethinking of global value chains • Permanent change to fiscal policy • A slowdown in productivity growth Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies at Brookings Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies at Brookings Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies at Brookings Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies at Brookings Native chart: Hutchins Center of Fiscal & Monetary Studies at Brookings
  • 3. Historical References Impact of SARS in Hong Kong during the Q2 2003. Quarterly GDP growth per cent (Source: European Commission) Spanish Flu (Source: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Rabobank) Consider other/similar post war and post pandemic economic recovery patterns
  • 4. Historical References Impact of SARS in Hong Kong during the Q2 2003. Quarterly GDP growth per cent (Source: European Commission) Impact of Spanish Flu on working age population growth (Source: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Rabobank)
  • 5. • What’s your base recovery scenario? • What will be the “new normal” irrespective of recovery scenario • What’s my response plan? • Sectoral analysis Business Adaptation
  • 6. Sectoral Analysis • Education - Hybrid “school-home” schooling model? • Hospitality - airline, hotels, Airbnb/sharing • Real Estate - Office/commercial vs residential • Finance – Credits, interest rate and liquidity, govt. debt/stimulus (vulnerability of emerging markets) • Heavy Industry - Rise of teleworking + robotics • Equity Investment – “V” pointers already. What’s next • Lessons from the Great Recession • Other/General • Uncertainty Management • Consider a business specific SWOT analysis
  • 7. Career Adaptation • Focus on skills that enable the “new normal” • Leverage new wave of free/subsidized online training & development events. • Teleworking and online working skills • Change and organizational systems management • Technical vs managerial skills • Benchmark from historical recession experience • What’s your plan?