Political Opinion Barometer - 2nd Wave 2014

2nd wave 2014
Political Opinion Barometer
33
Press report

2
Contents
Contents
1.Technical specifications
2.Main results
Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 2nd wave 2014
Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 758
Press Report, BOP. 2nd wave 2014

3
Technical specifications
Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 2nd wave 2014
1

4
Summary
Scope:
Catalonia
Univers:
Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia
Method of data collection:
Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI)
Sampling procedure:
Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex and age crossed quotas.
Town size is divided into 6 categories:
• less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants
• from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants
• from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants
• more than 1 million inhabitants
To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2012. The age quotas correspond to the following intervals:
• 18 to 24 years of age
• 65 and more years of age
Level of confidence:
95%
Variance
p=q=50%
Sample size:
2,000 individuals
Sampling error:
+ 2.69%

5
Sample size:
2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution:
• Barcelona
800
• Girona
400
• Lleida
400
• Tarragona
400
Allocation:
Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by the following territorial weights:
• Barcelona
1.864609957
• Girona
0.465810004
• Lleida
0.286327498
• Tarragona
0.518642584
Sampling error:
The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are:
• Barcelona
+ 3.46%
• Girona
+ 4.90%
• Lleida
+ 4.90%
• Tarragona
+ 4.90%
Fieldwork:
The fieldwork has been performed by Opinòmetre, from the 29th of September to the 23th of October 2014.

6
Main results
Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 2nd wave 2014
2

7
Next, I will read a number of institutions. Please rate the degree of confidence you have in each one of these institutions in a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means no confidence at all and 10 means a lot of confidence.
(N=2,000; simple response; means by institution where 0 is no confidence at all and 10 a lot of confidence)
Question 21
Attitudes towards polítics
5.24
5.16
5.02
4.70
4.60
4.37
4.29
4.15
3.97
3.52
3.51
3.32
2.99
2.87
2.80
2.42
2.40
2.18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mass media
Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police)
City council
UN
Parliament of Catalonia
Government of the Generalitat (Catalan Government)
EU
Spanish National Police and Guardia Civil
Courts of justice
Spanish army
Trade unions
Political parties
Congreso de los Diputados (Spanish Parliament)
Constitutional Court
Catholic Church
Spanish monarchy
Central government (Spain)
Banks
No confidence at all
A lot of confidence

8
Do you think that Catalonia has achieved...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Question 29
Political values
Relations between Catalonia and Spain
2.6
21.7
69.2
5.9
0.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Too much autonomy
A suficient level of autonomy
An insuficient level of autonomy
Do not know
Do not answer
3,8
4,6
3,9
2,3
2,6
19,2
19,1
20,6
24,2
21,7
71,2
72,5
70,4
66,6
69,2
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
June 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Too much autonomy
Suficient
Insuficient

9
Do you believe that Catalonia should be...
Question 30
Political values
1.8
23.4
22.2
45.3
6.5
0.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
A region of Spain
An autonomous community of Spain
A state in a federal Spain
An independent state
Do not know
Do not answer
4,4
4,6
5,4
2,6
1,8
20,7
22,8
18,6
23,3
23,4
22,4
21,2
21,3
20,0
22,2
46,4
47,0
48,5
45,2
45,3
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb.13
June 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Region
AC
Federal state
Independent state

10
Question 31a + 31b
Political values
P31a. What would you vote in this question: “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?” P31b. And in this other question: “Do you want this State to be independent?”
(direct vote intention combining the two questions; %)
(n)%(n)% Vote YES98749.4Vote NO25212.6Null00.0Blank10.0Abstain80.4Cannot vote00.0Do not know301.5Do not answer60.3Subtotal1,28464.2Vote NO39419.719.7Null20.10.1Blank201.01.0Abstain1376.96.9Cannot vote00.00.0Do not know1407.07.0Do not answer241.21.2Total2,000100.0Total2,000100.0First questionVotaria YES128464.2Second question

11
YES + YES 49.4 2.3 79.8 91.5 13.6 44.9 0.0 87.8 26.4
YES + NO 12.6 4.2 7.1 3.6 9.8 32.8 11.7 5.6 32.2
YES + Blank 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
YES + Abst 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0
YES + DkDa 1.8 0.0 1.3 1.7 0.2 11.9 1.2 1.5 0.0
NO 19.7 79.8 6.5 1.7 54.5 3.2 65.9 0.0 29.2
Null + Blank 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
Abstention 6.9 12.7 1.4 0.2 8.3 0,0 12.8 0.4 4.1
Dk/Da 8.2 1,0 3.1 0.9 11.6 6.5 8.5 2.7 6.4
Real base 2000 45 308 482 94 62 50 143 115
Weighted base 2000 44 277 428 117 74 44 123 123
Non-binding referendum vote by vote intention to the Catalan Parliament
Question 31a + 31b
Political values
(direct vote intention combining the two questions; %)
P31a. What would you vote in this question: “Do you want Catalonia to become a State?”
P31b. And in this other question: “Do you want this State to be independent?”

12
Do you consider yourself an independentist?
Question 45
Political values
Yes, I have always been independentist; 28.2%
Yes, I have become [independentist] during these last years; 20.9%
No, I don't consider myself an independentist; 48.5%
Dk + Da; 2.3%

13
If Catalonia was an independent state, how would the living standards of the Catalan people be, according to you?
Question 32
Political values
45.1
18.1
21.7
14.7
0.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Better than now
The same as now
Worse than now
Do not know
Do not answer
51,2
45,1
45,1
17,9
16,7
18,1
21,9
23,1
21,7
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
June 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Better than now
The same as now
Worse than now

14
If Catalonia was an independent state, how would the coexistence [social harmony] among the Catalan people be, according to you?
Question 33
Political values
20.7
52.1
18.4
8.5
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Better than now
The same as now
Worse than now
Do not know
Do not answer
22,0
20,7
46,0
52,1
20,4
18,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
Juny 13
Nov. 13
Març 14
Oct. 14
Better than now
The same as now
Worse than now

15
If Catalonia was an independent state, how likely would it be that it would stay automatically out of the European Union, according to you?
Question 34
Political values
19.9
20.8
25.7
18.9
14.5
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Very likely
Rather likely
Not very likely
Not at all likely
Do not know
Do not answer
44,9
40,7
37,6
44,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
June 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Very+ rather likely
Not very + not at all likely

16
To what extent do you think it is likely that the Spanish government will finally offer an agreement that would be acceptable for a majority of the Catalan Parliament?
Question 35
Political values
4.3
14.9
31.6
35.4
13.6
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Very likely
Rather likely
Not very likely
Not at all likely
Do not know
Do not answer
23,7
19,2
64,7
67,0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
Juny 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Very+ rather likely
Not very + not at all likely

17
If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for?
(N=2,000; simple response; %;)
Question 37
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention
Previous Barometer
2.2
13.8
21.4
5.8
3.7
2.2
6.2
6.2
2.4
4.4
1.4
11.9
15.3
3.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Podemos
Others
Blank
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer
1,6
14,5
20,0
6,1
5,0
4,0
6,4
1,2
5,0
1,3
14,8
16,9
3,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer

18
In particular, which one of the following sentences best describes your situation in the past elections to the Parliament of Catalonia held on November 2012?
Question 38a
Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote recall
3.9
17.5
0.5
0.9
75.4
1.6
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
I didn't vote because I couldn't (age, illness...)
I didn't vote
I thought of voting but finally didn't do it
I usually vote, but not this time
I am sure I voted
Do not know
Do not answer
12,9
15,1
16,5
23,0
22,8
86,6
84,4
83,0
75,6
75,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
June 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Didn't vote
Voted
Real turnout

19
And could you tell me to what party or coalition did you vote for in the last elections to the Parliament of Catalonia?
Question 38b
Real vote 2012 (% over the electoral census)
Previous Barometer
Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote recall
2.7
20.7
19.3
7.5
5.4
2.0
4.1
1.8
2.7
0.5
22.8
5.4
5.4
8.71
20.62
9.20
9.69
6.64
5.08
2.34
3.89
0.98
0.61
32.24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUIA
C's
CUP
Altres
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not answer
2.4
21.3
15.7
9.6
4.1
2.5
4.5
1.8
3.4
0.6
23.0
5.3
5.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUIA
C's
CUP
Altres
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not answer

20
If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for?
Question 39
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados
Previous Barometer
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention
2.8
11.3
18.4
6.9
3.6
1.4
3.1
10.7
2.5
5.0
1.7
14.7
14.8
3.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Podemos
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer
2.1
13.2
17.4
7.2
5.8
3.1
3.4
1.3
6.3
1.8
17.1
18.1
3.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Will not vote
Undecided
Do not answer

21
Pregunta 40a
In particular, which of the following sentences best describes your situation in the past elections to the Congreso de los Diputados:
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote recall
5.0
21.1
0.5
0.8
69.6
2.8
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
I didn't vote because I couldn't (age, illness...)
I didn't vote
I thought of voting but finally didn't do it
I usually vote, but not this time
I am sure I voted
Do not know
Do not answer
18,2
20,4
21,5
26,1
27,4
80,2
77,8
76,4
70,1
69,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb.13
June 13
Nov. 13
Mar. 14
Oct. 14
Didn't vote
Voted
Real turnout

22
Pregunta 40b
Previous barometer
Real vote 2011 (% over electoral census)
If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for?
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote recall
4.1
16.6
15.5
10.7
6.2
0.7
0.6
1.8
3.3
0.8
27.4
6.8
5.4
13.63
19.31
4.65
17.52
5.32
4.13
1.22
1.06
33.18
0
10
20
30
40
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not …
4.5
17.4
12.4
12.4
5.4
1.5
0.7
1.1
3.7
1.3
26.1
7.9
5.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
PPC
CIU
ERC
PSC
ICV-EUiA
C's
CUP
Others
Blank vote
Null vote
Did not vote
Do not know
Do not answer

23
How do you rate the political performance of these leaders? Please rate them in a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is very poor and 10 is excellent.
(Base: know the leader; simple response; average)
Question 41a
Electoral behaviour
Ratings of political leaders
Alfred Bosch5.630.886.197.024.054.921.555.612.62David Fernàndez5.580.555.156.33.165.641.747.954.1Oriol Junqueras5.531.336.937.683.665.671.826.233.69Joan Herrera4.841.694.935.334.446.892.84.734.59Artur Mas4.771.667.926.523.34.491.794.662.65Joan Coscubiela4.711.324.715.323.695.963.274.713.76Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida3.854.215.123.394.443.834.851.993.55Miquel Iceta3.642.994.133.544.874.493.582.193.44Jaume Collboni3.553,004.523.763.343.853.181.893.82Albert Rivera2.575.442.261.553.633.127.570.982.95Jorge Fernández Díaz1.955.592.141.42.442.374.780.671.62Alícia Sánchez-Camacho1.516.51.030.711.921.64.480.441.23Real base200045308482946250143115Weighted base2000442774281177444123123Rating by vote intention to the Catalan Parliament

24
Appendix 1
Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia.
Others/NullBlank voteDid not voteDk/DaTotal60.20.20.00.20.00.00.00.00.03.42.00.02.26.055.02.62.40.01.30.60.04.84.03.94.413.80.013.676.52.16.50.09.60.08.01.09.16.621.41.81.50.549.60.00.70.00.00.0.6.94.93.45.80.01.41.72.545.80.00.00.00.00.01.50.93.75.00.40.62.70.060.60.00.04.81.01.01.12.20.02.2.6.11.37.30.083.50.06.00.01.81.56.21.92.53.011.411.711.71.283.54.813.88.75.26.2Others/Null5.01.70.83.95.24.72.30.047.94.43.25.83.8Blank vote 11.22.70.83.00.0.4.70.00.00.042.95.95.04.4Will not vote 4.95.21.34.78.46.72.30.014.36.135.48.711.9Dk/Da 4.013.66.116.215.09.50.68.39.516.522.857.518.4Total100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0100,0Base real504543221636839959544594832232000Base ponderada474263151928350909048684592222000Vote recall to the Catalan Parliament 2012 Vote intention to the Catalan Parliament

25
Appendix 2
Political Opinion Barometer, 2nd wave 2014
Direct vote intention
Vote estimates
Sit estimates
Resultats 2012
(in %)
(in % over valid vote)
%VV
escons
CiU
13.8
19.4
32-32
30.7
50
ERC
21.4
23.2
38-39
13.7
21
PSC
5.8
11.2
14-16
14.4
20
PP
2.2
8.6
11-13
13.0
19
ICV-EUiA
3.7
7.2
8-9
9.9
13
C's
2.2
7.0
8-9
7.6
9
CUP
6.2
6.5
8-9
3.5
3
Podemos
6.2
8.5
10-11
others
2.4
6.5
---
5.7
---
blank vote
4.4
1.9
1.5
---
null vote
1.4
Abstention (“will not vote")
11.9
Undecided
15.3
Do not answer
3.1

26
Appendix 2
Political Opinion Barometer, 2nd wave 2014
Direct intention
Vote estimates
Sit
estimates
Results 2011
(in %)
(in % over valid vote)
%VV
sits
CiU
11.3
18.0
10-12
29.4
16
PSC
6.9
15.0
8-9
26.7
14
PP
2.8
11.1
5-6
20.7
11
ICV-EUiA
3.6
5.1
2
8.1
3
ERC
18.4
21.0
12-13
7.1
3
C's
1.4
2.5
0-1
6.3
0
CUP
3.1
3.8
1
Podemos
10.7
14.0
7-8
others
2.5
7.9
---
blank votes
5.0
1.6
1.9
null votes
1.8
Abstention (“will not vote")
14.7
Undecided
14.8
Do not answer
3.2

Political Opinion Barometer - 2nd Wave 2014

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