The ruling coalition parties Civic Platform and Polish Peasants Party emerged as winners of Poland's local elections in November 2014, controlling 15 of 16 regional assemblies. Civic Platform candidates won many of the major city mayoral run-off votes against Law and Justice candidates. However, Civic Platform saw its worst results since 2005 and narrower margins of victory, suggesting potential turnover in the 2018 local elections. The Polish Peasants Party made the biggest gains, positioning itself as a party that can be relied on by small business owners at the local level.

1. Polish LocalElections2014

2. PolishLocalElections2014:Overall Resultsand Allocationof Seatsin RegionalAssemblies
2
26,85%
26,36%
23,68%
8,78%
171
179
157
28
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
PiS
PO
PSL
SLD
Total numberof seatsin regionalassemblies

3. PoliticalParties
3
CivicPlatform(PO):oneofthetwomajorpartiesonthePolishpoliticalscenesince2005.Ingovernmentsince2007.Despiteitsfreemarketroots,thepartyhasbeentakinganincreasinglysocial-democraticstanceonsocialissues.
LawandJustice(PiS):since2005themaincompetitorofPO, particularlystronginconservativeconstituencies.Theparty’splatformembraceseconomicinterventionismandprotectionism, combinedwithastrongsociallyconservativestance.
DemocraticLeftAlliance(SLD:apro-Europeansocial-democraticparty,itisthehistoricsuccessortothePolishcommunistpartydissolvedin1990.IncreasinglylaggingbehindthedominantPOandPiS,andovershadowedinthelocalelectionsbyboththePSLandnon-partisanurbanmovements.
PolishPeasantParty(PSL):acentristagrarianparty,withastrongapparatusonthelocallevel,increasinglyrepresentingtheinterestsofSMEs.Onsocialissuesthepartymaintainsaconservativeprofile.Since2007,thejuniorcoalitionpartyofthePOingovernment.

4. RegionalAssembliesand City Mayorships
4
14
13
12
15
9
11
6
4
5
7
17
18
16
10
3
1
2
8
1.Szczecin
2.Gorzów Wlkp.
3.Zielona Góra
4.Wrocław
5.Poznań
6.Gdańsk
7.Bydgoszcz
8.Toruń
9.Opole
10.Katowice
11.Łódź
12.Olsztyn
13.Warszawa
14.Kielce
15.Kraków
16.Rzeszów
17.Białystok
18.Lublin
Non partisans

5. MainCity Mayorships
5
Non partisans
46
29
13
12
5

6. 6
Marek Matraszek
Founding Partner
Commentary
Followinglongdelaysinvotecounting,Poland’sNationalElectoralCommission(PKW)finallyannouncedtheofficialresultsofthefirstroundoflocalgovernmentelectionsheldonNovember16th. DespitemostballotsbeingcastformainoppositionpartyLawandJustice(PiS),therulingcoalitionpartiesCivicPlatform(PO)andPolishPeasantsParty(PSL)emergedaswinners,controlling15outof16regions.
Therun-offracesonNovember30thforthemayorshipsofmajortownsandcitiesunderlinedthekeytrendoftheelections:PiShaddonewell,butnotwellenoughtosecurekeyvictories.Inmajorcities,POcandidateswontherunoffsagainstPiScandidates,withonlyafewexceptions.PO,despiteachievingtheirworstresultsince2005,wonmostseatsattheregionallevelandmaintaineditsgriponmostcities–theparty’scandidatessecuredvictoriesinŁódźandLublin,wonrun-offsonNovember30thinWarsaw, Gdansk,WroclawandPoznan,andrecapturedsomeimportantmiddle-sizedtowns.Howeverthesevictorieswereachievedwithnarrowermarginsthanin2010,andmaypointtomoreturnoverinthenextlocalelectionsin2018.

7. Commentary
7
TheelectionresultsareawarningsignalforPO.Aftersevenyearsofcontinuousvictories,withoutitsformidableleaderDonaldTusk,miredininternalrivalrybetweencontendersforthepartyleadership,CivicPlatformfacesadifficultelectoralyearin2015.Losingitshithertocoreelectorateoftheurbaneducatedmiddleclass,POwillhavetosetitscoursecautiously.
However,itisthePO’sjuniorcoalitionpartnerPSLwhichmadethebiggestgains–withthebesteverelectionresultfortheparty,securing157outof555seatsinregionalassemblies.OnceconsideredanarrowrepresentationofPolishfarmers,PSLinrecentyearshasbecameincreasinglyperceivedasa“partyofcommonsense”,opposingpopulistlegislationandcapturinglocalfootholdsintownsandcitiesacrossPoland.Onereasonisitsdynamicchairmanwithapenchantforcampaigninginthefieldwhilstallowingflexibilityforlocalactivists.CrucialwasarebellionbydisillusionedPOvoters,suspiciousofEwaKopacz'sshifttotheleftanddoubtfulthatCivicPlatformremainsdedicatedtofreemarketprinciples.PSLhasbecomeapartyofchoiceforsmallentrepreneurs,whobelievethatonalocalleveltheycanrelyonPSLcommitmentstosupportdomesticbusinesses.

8. Commentary
8
LawandJusticeprovedunabletotakepowerinkeycitiesandprovinces(althoughtheydidwinapluralityofvotesinsixprovinces),evengivenfavourableconditionsofthepowervoidafterTusk’sdeparturetoBrussels. PiSleaderJarosławKaczyńskiaccusedthePOandPSLofvoterigginganddemandedtheelectionstobevoided.SLDleaderLeszekMiller,joinedhimintheseclaimsafterhisowncrushingdefeat.Untilnow,MillerhasalwayscriticisedPiS,butwithSLDscoringonly8.78%andfinishingdistantfourthwithbarely28seatsMillerisnowindesperationswitchingtacticsandattackingPO.
Withthedustsettlingafterthepost-electionchaos,twoplayershaveemergedvictorious.ThefirstisPSL’sleaderJanuszPiechociński,confidentlyopposingthevote-riggingclaims.ThesecondisPresidentBronisławKomorowski,whohashisownelectionbattletowinin2015,whocleverlyrefusedtobedrawnintothecampaign.Radiatingstatesmanship,hecommittedalsotoamendingtheelectoralcodetopreventsimilarvotingchaosinthefuture.Poles,tiredofelectoralconflict,welcomedhispositionandKomorowski’strustratingsasaresulthavesoaredagain,entrenchinghimastheoneofthemostrespectedmembersofthePolishpoliticalclass.

9. www.cecgr.com
The LeadingIndependent
Public AffairsNetwork in Central Europe
Establishedin 1993.
DeliveringprofessionalPublic Affairsservices atlocal, national, regionaland Europeanlevelfor the US and Western Europeanforeigninvestorcommunity.
For full details, contact:
Marek Matraszek
Founding Partner & Managing Director
Mobile: +48601 336040
E-mail: mm@cecgr.com