This document discusses rural poverty in Isothermal Planning & Development Commission's four-county region in North Carolina. It outlines issues with relying solely on census data to identify pockets of rural poverty, as census geographies have expanded, obscuring variation. The authors developed a spatial analysis technique using address-level low-income housing and weatherization program data to identify clusters of rural poverty at a smaller scale. By geocoding and aggregating individual addresses while obscuring them, they were able to highlight areas meeting poverty thresholds not evident in larger census geographies. This provides a more accurate way to target services for economic development, housing, and other programs.

1. Pockets of Rural
Poverty:
Seeing Beyond the
Census Data
Josh King, Land of Sky Regional Council
Karyl Fuller, Isothermal Planning &
Development Commission

2. Introduction
O Isothermal Planning & Development Commission
(IPDC)
O Council of Government representing four counties in
North Carolina
O They are Cleveland, McDowell, Polk and Rutherford.
All but Cleveland are within ARC
O IPDC provides a variety of services to their counties
including:
O Workforce Development
O Area Agency on Aging
O Grant Services
O Planning Services including staffing Isothermal RPO

3. Introduction, Cont.
O Disproportionate development patterns
leaving extreme income disparity
O Fast and furious second home growth in the
2000’s
O Declining manufacturing employment
O Better ways to display and track locally
available knowledge for future planners
O Environmental Justice Compliance tool

4. Environmental Justice Guides
O Income
O Areas where the Median Household Income
Less than 50% of County’s HUD Average
O Minority
O Areas where %Minority is 10 points higher
than County Average or Greater than 50%

5. Map

6. Problem
O Data Available
O Largely Census
O Economic Data is No Longer Collected during the
Regular Census
O Rather, American Community Survey
O Advantages
O ”New “ Data Available Every Year
O Disadvantages
O Depending on Geography, Only Data Available is 5-Year
Averages
O Sample Size is not 1 in 6 household like the long form.
Each year, ACS attempts to sample 1 in 35-40 households.
Even over 5 years, sample 1-12.5 households

7. Problem
O Size of Geography has
expanded
O In 2000—Block Groups
represented 600 people
O Since 2010— Block
Groups represented
1,500 people. Census
Tracts represented
average of 4,000.
O Because of ACS sampling,
the data is not reliable at
BG level
O Census Tracts provide a
more reliable sample

8. Problem, Cont.
O Census Tracts are
larger
O The smallest tract in
4-county region is
~1000 acres in
McDowell County. The
largest is ~100,000
acres in Rutherford
County
O Variation is hidden
with the larger area
and population size.
Fewer Census Tract
meet the threshold

9. Kingstown Example
O Town Facts
O 89.1% Black
O 2010 Median
Household Income:
$31,111
O Total Population: 681
O Census Tract Facts
O 16.9% Black
O 2010 MHHI: $45,250
O Total Population:
6,855

10. Available Data
O IPDC provides Grant Services to all four
counties including Housing, Urgent Repair,
Infrastructure and Economic Development.
We also provide Weatherization Services to
all 4 counties.
O Most of the Grants require Income
Verification, usually low to moderate income
O Weatherization has income limits, as well.

11. Limitations/Issues
O Grant recipients’ addresses are posted.
O However, Weatherization is not.
O Brought in Grant data from 2005-
O Grant recipients usually have liens on their house for
an extended period.
O Small pool of applicants, but have parcel IDs
O Weatherization recipients
O Currently, only 1 Year of data used
O Used Addresses and Geo-coded them Using Google
Maps
O Solution-To use Spatial Analysis tools to both obscure
the individual addresses and highlight the clusters

12. Process
O Grant Recipients
O All data was converted to point data
O Compiled/Attributed with Source
O Weatherization Data
O Addresses Only
O Geo-coded Using Google data
O Any data with Accuracy rating less than 8
O Screened, Updated
O Re-Geocoded

13. Process, Cont.
O Weatherization & Grant Services were
combined
O Using Spatial Analyst, various cell sizes and
search radius were explored.
O Cell size of 2500 ft and Search radius of 2
miles seemed sufficient

14. Results

15. Final Map

16. Comparison
Results Map
Overlay MapResults Map

17. Final Thoughts
O Related Products—Highlights for
Marketing/Advertising
O Race—Use 2010 Block Group data
O Bring in More Weatherization data
O Technique is scalable to varying degrees
O Continuous search for more income qualified
data
O Aging data can also be used to test against
Census Age data