The document discusses housing affordability in Chatham, Orange, and Chapel Hill school districts. It provides data on median home prices and trends over three years in these areas. To analyze affordability, it examines 2017 residential property sales within different price ranges, showing typical numbers of bedrooms/bathrooms and square footage for homes priced under $100,000, between $100-150K, $150-250K, and $250-300K. Across areas, lower priced homes generally have fewer bedrooms and were built older. Chatham offers slightly more for the price compared to Orange and Chapel Hill school districts.

1. WELCOME TO THE
SPRING CEO SUMMIT

2. THE CHAPEL HILL
COUNTRY CLUB: YOUR
HOME AWAY FROM HOME
CEO Summit
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3. WHEN AN ORDINARY REAL
ESTATE COMPANY JUST
WON’T DO
CEO Summit
presented by

4. AFFORDABLE HOUSING
BY ROBERT DOWLING, COMMUNITY
HOME TRUST SUSAN LEVY, HABITAT
FOR HUMANITY

5. Carolina Chamber CEO Summit
Data provided by: Orange County Affordable Housing Coalition
March 9, 2018

6. Orange County Affordable
Housing Coalition
Organizations
• CASA
• Community Empowerment Fund
• Community Home Trust
• DHIC
• EmPOWERment, Inc.
• Habitat for Humanity of Orange County
• Inter-Faith Council for Social Service
• Justice United
• Marian Cheek Jackson Center for Saving and
Making History
• Self-Help Credit Union
• UNC Partnerships in Aging Program
• Weaver Community Housing Association
Governmental Partners
• Family Success Alliance
• Town of Chapel Hill Office of Housing
and Community
• Town of Chapel Hill Public Housing
• Town of Carrboro
• Town of Hillsborough
• Triangle J Council of Governments
• Orange County Housing, Human Rights
and Community Development
Department
• Orange County Partnership to End
Homelessness
• Orange County Health Department

7. What is Affordable Housing?
Housing that costs its occupant no more than 30% of
their gross monthly household income.
AMI for 4-person household in 2017: $73,300
Percentage of Area Median Income (AMI)
Extremely
Low
Income
Very
Low
Income
Low-Income Moderate Income
30% 50% 80% 120%
*an AMI is based on the Metropolitan Statistical Area or MSA. Orange County is in an MSA with Chatham and
Durham Counties.

8. Point of Reference: Area Median Income (AMI)
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016
% of AMI,
2016
HUD Defined
Income Limits
(family of 4)
Affordable
Housing Costs
(Rent &
Utilities < 30%
of Income)
Percent of
Households in
Orange County
30% $24,300 $608 20%
50% $35,350 $884 9%
80% $56,550 $1,413 14%
100% $74,900 $1,873 16%

9. Income Disparity by Race/Ethnicity in
Orange County
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016
Reference: Appendix A
Median Income Comparison
White to African American Households: 1.7
White to Hispanic/Latino Households: 1.5
African-
American
households
Non-white,
Hispanic/Latino
households
Asian
households
White
households
Making less than
30% of AMI
33% 25% 19% 17%
Making less than
80% of AMI
58% 59% 37% 38%

10. Single Mom, One Child
Works at Local Healthcare
Provider
Earns $26,771/year
Can afford $569/month in
housing costs
Who needs affordable housing?

11. Married Couple, 2 Children
Both work for Local Hotel in
Housekeeping
Earn $42,406 COMBINED
Can afford $960/month in
housing costs
Who needs affordable housing?

12. Single Man
Works at Local Non-Profit
Formerly Homeless
Earns $18,600/year
Can afford $450/month in
housing costs
Who needs affordable housing?
Former CEF Board Member

13. Single Mom, Two Boys
Administrative Personnel at
UNC Healthcare
Employed 5 years
Earns $32,800/year
Can afford $765/month in
housing costs
Who needs affordable housing?

14. Married Couple, 3 Children
Both work for housekeeping at
UNC
Earn $55,310 COMBINED
Can afford $1,290/month in
housing costs
3 – 6 Years of Employment
Who needs affordable housing?

15. Single Male, No Children
Spanish Teacher at Chapel
Hill/Carrboro City Schools
Earns $50,000/year
Can afford $1,167/month in
housing costs
Who needs affordable housing?

16. Image sources: apartments.com, Google Street View, dhic.org, communityhometrust.org
What Does “Affordable Housing” Look Like in
Orange County?

17. Affordable Housing Developers
Organization Total # of
Units
Special Population
Served
Target % of
AMI Served
CASA 53 Homeless, Disability,
Veterans, Accept
vouchers/ subsidies
0-60%
Community Home Trust 314 Seniors, Families,
Disability
30-115%
DHIC 80 Seniors, Families,
Disability
30-60%
EmPOWERment 40 Accept vouchers/
subsidies (85%vouchers)
30-60%
Habitat for Humanity 271 Seniors, Families,
Disability
30-60%
Town of Chapel Hill Public Housing 336 Families, Homeless
preference, DV, Seniors,
Disability
0-30%
Other (Section 202, LIHTC, etc.) 674
TOTAL 1,768

18. Local Government Policies & Initiatives
• Orange County Housing Bond (2016)
• Dedicated local funding in Chapel Hill and Carrboro
• Dedicated staff to advance affordable housing
• Willingness to use publicly owned land
• Inclusionary housing policies
• Northside Neighborhood Initiative
• Creation of strategies to address mobile home park
displacement

19. 69% of Subsidized Units are Rental
Type # of Units
Rental 1,228
Homeownership 540
Total 1,768
68% Rental Units
32% Owned
Units
Rental Homeownership

20. Of the 56,474 housing units in Orange County…
….. 1,768 homes are permanently affordable
(About 3%)
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2011-2015

21. Percent Change in the Number of
Households by Income Level 2009-2015
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2011-2015
Chatham Durham Johnston Lee Moore Orange Wake Region

22. Low-Income Renters Squeezed by Market
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2011-2015
Countywide there’s been a 16% increase
in rental costs from 2009-2015

23. Low-Income Renters Squeezed by Market
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2011-2015
There are 0 available units of any size
affordable to households earning less
than 30% of AMI

24. Low-Income Renters Squeezed by Market
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2011-2015
There is an estimated market gap of
4,932 housing units affordable to
households living in Orange County and
earning less than $20,000

25. Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing
Market Pressure Rising as Naturally Occurring Affordable
Rental Housing Threatened
The approximate number of market rate rental units (NOAH)
currently affordable to households making 60%- 80% of AMI: 7,936
• NOAH Units Are Aging Units
–Increasing risk of substandard quality
–45% of rental units listed in CoStar that are affordable to households
making 80% of AMI or less were built before 1980
• NOAH Units Are at Risk
–Redevelopment replacing these units results in unaffordable housing
• NOAH Units Present an Opportunity
–Proactive strategy can preserve and maintain affordability of naturally
occurring rental housing
Reference: Using CoStar Data of Multifamily Developments, Removing Student Housing, Appendix

26. Orange County Average Residential
Closing Price

27. Hillsborough’s median home prices have
increased by almost 20% in 4 years
$237,000
$266,000
$275,560
$280,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2014 2015 2016 2017
Hillsborough Median Home Price
Source: Triangle Multiple Listing Service

28. 1 in 4 County Households are Spending
More than 30% of their Income on Housing
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2012-2016
5,825
45%
9,172
60%
14,997
53%
Cost-burdened
homeowners
earning < AMI
Cost-burdened
renters
earning < AMI
Reference: Appendix E
Cost-burdened
households
earning < AMI

29. Key Opportunities
Publicly Owned Land
• Greene Tract
• Homestead Road Town of Chapel Hill Development
• American Legion Property
• Other County and Town owned parcels

30. Opportunities in Innovative Strategies
• Use publicly-owned land for affordable housing
• Use the 4% Low Income Housing Tax Credit
• Multi-jurisdictional partnerships (public, nonprofit, and
private)
• Leverage local subsidy funding
• Partner with anchor institutions
• Hospitals
• Schools & Universities
• Banks
• Businesses

31. Connecting the Opportunities to the Need
13,163
households
13,163 cost-burdened households in
Orange County earning below 80% AMI around
12,500
households
needing
affordable
housing
680
units
680 planned units and specifically
identified opportunities for
affordable housing development

32. RENTAL MARKET
BY DANIEL ELLER, ELLER CAPITAL

33. Chapel Hill: Market Rate
Multifamily Rental Housing
GENERAL AND MARKET SPECIFIC SUPPLY & DEMAND
TRENDS
CEO SUMMIT
MARCH 3, 2018

34. 34
Private and confidential. Past performance is not indicative of future investment results.
Who Rents Today and
Why?
MARKET
The characteristics of today’s typical renter have changed because of two key generations: millennials and baby boomers. The
millennials are renting at higher rates1 and for longer periods2 of time, while the number of baby boomers in the rental market is
expected to double3 in the next ten years. Generation Z is also not far behind, with its first members entering the market in 2019.
The Silent Generation
7%
Baby Boomers
23%
Generation X
18%
Millenials
27%
Generation Z
25%
333.9 M
2020 US Population6
Millennials and baby boomers are today’s primary
apartment renters due to changing lifestyle
preferences and financial pressures that have led to
historically decreased home ownership rates.1,4
+
Over the last decade in the U.S., more than 50% of
new apartment renters were baby boomers.4
+
Together, by 2020, millennials and Generation Z will
comprise 52% of the U.S. population, but own less
than 10% of net household wealth.1
+
1. United States Census Bureau.
2. National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association.
3. Transunion.
4. Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies.
INCREASED DEMAND FOR MULTIFAMILY ASSETS

35. 35
Private and confidential. Past performance is not indicative of future investment results.
Limited Supply, Rising
Demand
MARKET
In addition to an increased demand for apartments based on lifestyle preferences and financial burdens, the Southeastern U.S. is the
beneficiary of current migration patterns1 and continued growth in population1 and employment2. Furthermore, as older housing
stock becomes obsolete, the current supply in these markets will be unable to meet the increased demand caused by these trends.3
RENT
GROWTH
+
INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNIT
Y
Millennials & Baby
Boomer Trends
Population Growth in
SE U.S.1
Job Growth in
SE U.S.2
Undersupply of
Quality Rental
Housing3
Generation Z Soon To
Enter Rental Market
1. Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies.
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment to increase by 11.5 million (0.7% annual growth rate) from 2016 to 2026, slightly higher than the prior ten years (0.5% annual growth rate).
3. National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association. Average age of multifamily property in the U.S. is 39 years.
4. National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association 2016 study. Demand between 2016 and 2030.
47% Of the total new US apartment
demand will occur in nine SE states4 2,174,000 UNITS NEEDED BY
2030

36. 36
Private and confidential. Past performance is not indicative of future investment results.
Chapel Hill Rental Supply
MARKET
With the exception of a few years in the 1980’s, demand for apartments in Chapel Hill has almost always exceeded the available
supply.
66% Of multifamily apartment units in
Chapel Hill are older than 30 years 15% Just 15% of the multifamily rental units
in Chapel Hill are less than 10 years
old (1,647 units)

37. 37
Private and confidential. Past performance is not indicative of future investment results.
Chapel Hill Occupancy
MARKET
After removing three communities that are outliers due to being in lease-up or being impacted by other non-market related factors,
the average occupancy for market rate rentals in Chapel Hill is 97%.
97%
MARKET
OCCUPANCY
Older than 1969
98%
1970-1979
97%
1980-1989
96%
1990-1999
97%
2000 and Newer
96%
1. Chapel Ridge and Chapel View were removed from occupancy calculation due to a major ownership and management change last summer.
2. Berkshire Chapel Hill was removed from the occupancy calculations due to the fact that it is in lease-up and is not yet stable.

38. 38
Private and confidential. Past performance is not indicative of future investment results.
Chapel Hill Occupancy
MARKET
Despite the need to built a very large number of new apartment units in order to keep pace with supply, average wages have shown
very limited growth over a long period of time and we are at a point in which the cost to construct a new multifamily community is
high enough that many markets are approaching a point in which rents have outpaced the resident’s ability to financially qualify to
rent the apartment unit.
Berkshire Chapel Hill
Average One Bedroom Market Rent:
$1,665 per month
Average Two Bedroom Market Rent:
$2,203 per month
$330 Amount of the average move-in
incentive being offered to residents.
$50,000 Annual income to qualify
for a one bedroom unit
$66,000 Annual income to qualify
for a two bedroom unit

39. REAL ESTATE MARKET
BY MARK ZIMMERMAN, REMAX
WINNING EDGE

40. Affordability in our Markets
● Price points
○ <$100,000 - is there anything?
○ <$150,000 - affordable to $40,000
○ <$250,000 - affordable to $70,000
○ <$300,000 - our future . . .
● Chatham, Orange, Chapel Hill (not schools)
○ Big picture - median price
○ Data:
■ TMLS closed sales
■ Three year trend
■ 12 month rolling data
■ Caution on sales price
● What do you get?
○ Chatham, Orange, CH-C School District

42. Chatham

43. OrangeOrange

44. Chapel Hill

45. What do you get?
● Lower the price . . .
○ Fewer bedrooms/baths
○ Less square footage
○ Older
● Chatham you get a bit more
● Orange a bit less
● CHCCS even less

46. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● $100,000 - $150,000
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
Chatham 3/2 1986 1404
Orange 2/2 1983 1097
CHCCS 2/2 1983 1052

47. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● $150,000 - $250,000
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
Chatham 3/2 1999 1537
Orange 3/2 1990 1411
CHCCS 2/2 1983 1195

48. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● Chatham
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
<$100,000 3/2 1965 1212
$100-$150,000 3/2 1986 1404
$150-$250,000 3/2 1999 1537
$250-$300,000 3/3 2008 1832

49. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● Orange
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
<$100,000 2/1 1972 1052
$100-$150,000 2/2 1983 1097
$150-$250,000 3/2 1990 1411
$250-$300,000 3/3 1986 1580

50. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● CHCCS
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
<$100,000 2/1 1967 783
$100-$150,000 2/2 1983 1052
$150-$250,000 2/2 1983 1195
$250-$300,000 3/2 1986 1580

51. Local Housing Affordability
● Affordable market rate housing has become an
oxymoron
● Many contributing factors:
○ In general, demand outstripping supply
■ Rural buffer exacerbates that imbalance in Orange County
○ Taxes and fees worsen cost of housing
■ Especially in Orange County
○ New construction costs contributing to inflation
■ Land, labor and materials
○ Regulatory environment adds additional costs
■ Out of pocket, time, underutilization of land
■ Especially in Orange County
● Affordability is relative
○ Low income residents will need subsidies
○ Middle income residents at risk

53. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● <$100,000
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
Chatham 3/2 1965 1212
Orange 2/1 1972 1052
CHCCS 2/1 1967 783

54. What do you get?
● 2017 closed residential sales
● $250,000 - $300,000
Bed/Bath Built Sq Ft
Chatham 3/3 2008 1832
Orange 3/3 1997 1816
CHCCS 3/2 1986 1580