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Planning with #NoEstimates
This document discusses alternatives to traditional software estimation practices. It suggests that estimates are not good at predicting outcomes and promoting better decision making. Instead, it advocates for techniques like assuming ignorance, planning experiments, breaking work down into small batches, and focusing on complexity assessment and value estimation. The overall message is that careful planning and incremental work can help manage uncertainty and control projects better than reliance on estimates.
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Planning with #NoEstimates
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- 2. @gil_zilberfeld Hello! I AM GILZILBERFELD www.gilzilberfeld.com www.everydayunittesting.com @gil_zilberfeld
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- 8. @gil_zilberfeld Better decisions Go /No / Not now Alternatives Be in control
- 9. @gil_zilberfeld Why don’t we likegiving estimates?
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- 12. @gil_zilberfeld Do they help makebetter decisions?
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- 14. @gil_zilberfeld “Prediction is very difficult,especially about the future.” Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize in Physics
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- 16. @gil_zilberfeld “It always takeslonger than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law” Douglas Hofstadter Professor of cognitive science
- 17. @gil_zilberfeld The estimation game Foreach of the next 10 quantitative questions, give a lower and an upper bound, such that you believe with about 90% certainty that the correct answer lies within the interval given.
- 18. @gil_zilberfeld The estimation game Thismeans that you should expect to guess correctly for about 9 questions out of 10.
- 19. @gil_zilberfeld Q: How manypeople are in this room? A: You ‘guess’ an interval: 2-100
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- 21. @gil_zilberfeld 1. What wasthe date of birth of Bram Stoker, author of Dracula?
- 22. @gil_zilberfeld 2. What isthe population of the Republic of Brazil?
- 23. @gil_zilberfeld 3. What isthe height, in meters, of the tallest living redwood tree?
- 24. @gil_zilberfeld 4. How manystandardized (ISO 6346) steel shipping containers exist in the world?
- 25. @gil_zilberfeld 5. How manyBoeing 747 (all models) have been built at this date?
- 26. @gil_zilberfeld 6. What isthe total number of human deaths attributed to H5N1 “avian” flu?
- 27. @gil_zilberfeld 7. How manySyrian conflict refugees were registered by UNHCR as of 1 Nov 2012?
- 28. @gil_zilberfeld 8. What wasthe total wine production of France in 2009, in hectoliters?
- 29. @gil_zilberfeld 9. How manyOlympics medals altogether have been won to date by Austrian athletes?
- 30. @gil_zilberfeld 10. What isthe half-life, in years, of the isotope Plutonium 239?
- 31. @gil_zilberfeld 1) 1847 2) 199million 3) 115 meters 4) 20 million containers 5) 1486 747s You can also split your content 6) 379 deaths 7) 286,000 refugees 8) 45 million hectoliters 9) 304 medals 10) 24 thousand years How did you do?
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- 35. @gil_zilberfeld “The primary purposeof an estimate is not to predict a project’s outcome. Steve McConnell, Software Estimation (2006) It is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them.”
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- 37. @gil_zilberfeld Estimates are not theonly tools
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- 43. @gil_zilberfeld Liz Keogh’s complexitymodel 1. Just about everyone in the world has done this. 2. Lots of people have done this, including someone on our team. 3. Someone in our company has done this, or we have access to expertise. 4. Someone in the world did this, but not in our organization (and probably at a competitor). 5. Nobody in the world has ever done this before.
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- 51. @gil_zilberfeld “Ignorance is thesingle greatest impediment to throughput.” Dan North https://dannorth.net/2010/08/30/introd ucing-deliberate-discovery/
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- 53. @gil_zilberfeld We don’t needno stinking estimates! ANY QUESTIONS? You can find me at: @gil_zilberfeld http://www.GilZilberfeld.com http://www.EverydayUnitTesting.com