Massimiliano Petri and Irene Nicotra on "A new model for Public Transport: the use of non conventional transport systems"

1. A new model for Public Transport: the use of
non conventional transport systems
Massimiliano Petri
Irene Nicotra
Osservatorio Provinciale della Mobilità
Provincia di Livorno
Polo Sistemi Logistici di Livorno - Laboratorio LOGIT,
University of Pisa
Seventh International Conference on
Informatics and Urban and Regional Planning
10-12 May 2012
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Archit., Univ.of Cagliari (Italy)

2. INTRODUCTION
ACTUAL TRENDS
Italian territory has a big number of small urban center, rural zones and villages
that, until some time ago, have seen the gradual depopulation with migratory
phenomenon to the major cities.
In the last years, this phenomenon has been reversed and population is
decreasing in the major centers and it is increasing in the lower ones located in
the suburban area nearest to the city center but more distance, also with good
road links.
This process allows the growing of commuting and of time spent to travel,
drawing a complex mobility scenario, difficult to manage with conventional
and traditional public transport.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

3. INTRODUCTION
ACTUAL TRENDS
With the recent crisis, the previous national government has deeply cut
economical resources to Public Transport. This operation has created a lot of
problems for provinces and communes to plan future public transport lines
(respectively for suburban and urban lines).
Tuscany Region decides to preserve resources for healthcare and education
and to concentrate all cuts in public transport. The remaining resource are
concentrated in the urban service to allow attraction for private transport
operator but Region doesn’t take into account the amount of revenues coming
from urban public transport service many times very limited for extra-urban
lines.
Moreover the recent increase of fuel prices will bring to a modal split from
private to public transport (already started in 2011).
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

4. INTRODUCTION
ACTUAL TRENDS
Recent surveys on Italian trips and mobility (ISFORT, 2011) show that
crisis effects, amplified from the increasing fuel cost, are trips
decreasing, mostly private trips (until 15%); this element shows the
rising demand of low cost transport systems, demand trappable from
public transport to follow a more sustainable mobility system (in fact
public transport trips, despite european crisis, decrease only of 5%).
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

5. INTRODUCTION
ACTUAL TRENDS
Feet or bike
Motocycle
Private car
Public trans.
Italian weekday trips number (values in thousands) and their types
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

6. INTRODUCTION
AIM
The main aim of the present research is to build a new model of public
transport following recent decision of Tuscany Region relative to
institute a unique Public Transport organization for all regional area.
Then, Public Administration will bring in this unique transport
management only the line more attended (with more revenues and so
more attractive for the unique service operator).
For the remaining weak Public Transport lines we need to investigate
possible private and public transport solutions, alternatives to
conventional transport systems, analyzing territorial, socio-economic
and transport structure to follow the new explained mobility demand
and the decreasing economical resources.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

7. THE STUDY
The analysis is divided in four parts:
1 – Analysis of actual public transport services
Attendances + Shifts + Times (winter week-day)
2 – Project hypothesis
Spatio-temporal service design
3 –Focus Groups
Prevalent demand influence variables
4 - Analysis of demand attracted in different service scenarios
Stated Preference survey and vehicle routing simulations
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

8. THE STUDY – PART 1
Analysis of actual public transport services
Administration Line name Denomination Frequ./trip Classification
Commune of Piombino 21 Urbano Piombino 20,0 Strong
01 Cecina-Piombino 27,6 Strong
02 Camp/Ventur-Piombino 10,5 Verify
03 Monterot/Piombino 11,1 Verify
Service analysis Riotorto/Piombino
05 20,6 Strong
at line level 06 Sassetta/M.di Castag 6,5 Weak
08 Piombino/Follonica 28,2 Strong
Province of 11 Sass/Don/SVinc-Piomb 20,9 Strong
Livorno 14 Cecina/Canneto 29,3 Strong
27 Suburbano S.Vincenzo 2,7 Weak
2A Linea Azzurra 9,8 Verify
31 Popul-Baratti-Piomb 3,0 Weak
32 Interfraz. Piombino 9,7 Verify
41 Interfraz. Campiglia 19,2 Strong
51 Interfraz. Suvereto 14,2 Verify
Interfraz. Castagnet
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

9. THE STUDY – PART 1
Analysis of actual public transport services
Cod Cod
Length H_Start H_Arrive Freq. Tickets Subscr Type Project
Trip Line
Service analysis
01R 020 01 54489 06:47 08:15 71 0 71 school Essential
at trip level 01R 060 01 48362 06:50 08:00 68 0 68 school Essential
01R 030 01 39023 07:00 08:00 45 0 45 school Essential
To extract bus shifts. 01A 101 01 38280 07:05 07:55 15 0 15 school Essential
01R 500 01 17418 07:05 07:30 5 0 5 school Essential
For social reason, the 01R 010 01 26809 07:10 07:50 54 0 54 school Essential
school trip was 01R 025 01 34263 07:20 08:15 n.c. 0 n.c. school Essential
inserted in the 01R 050 01 18796 07:30 08:00 6 0 6 school Essential
essential network 01R 070 01 18796 07:30 08:00 58 0 58 school Essential
(that’s to say the 01A 130 01 17280 08:00 08:25 5 2,5 2,5 service To transform
01R 090 01 17393 08:25 08:50 13 0 13 work To transform
regional strong one) 01A 535 01 18109 08:40 09:05 6 3 3 service To transform
while the low 01R 510 01 37645 09:10 10:00 13 6,5 6,5 service To transform
frequency trips was 01R 100 01 17418 10:15 10:40 8 4 4 service To transform
passed in the weak 01A 150 01 17280 11:00 11:25 14 7 7 service To transform
network to be 01R 125 01 17418 11:20 11:45 4 2 2 service To transform
01A 160 01 17280 12:15 12:40 30 0 30 school Essential
planned with low- 01R 110 01 17418 12:40 13:05 2 1 1 service Essential
cost services. 01A 020 01 39655 13:05 14:05 69 0 69 school Essential
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

10. THE STUDY – PART 1
Analysis of actual public transport services
Service analysis
at stop level
To extract trips with
partial frequentation
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

11. THE STUDY – PART 1
Analysis of actual public transport services
Service analysis
at stop level
To crearly
individuate school
and work trips
having schools and
industrial activity
locations.
Legend
Green = Get on
Red = Get off
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

12. THE STUDY – PART 1
Analysis of actual public transport services
Then it was reconstructed the actual
presence of taxis and rental with driver
licenses in the area in order to know the
current supply and its ability to cover the
needs highlighted by the above analysis
The existing available driving licenses
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

13. THE STUDY – PART 2
Project hypothesis
The public transport service is structured in two main parts:
1) A first part links the biggest urban center in the island, Marina di Campo,
Marciana Marina, Porto Azzurro with Portoferraio (called Central
Network);
2) A second part links the smaller center and marginal areas (with low
transport demand), called Adduction Network, with the previous three
main centers.
Due to the big surfaces covered from the demand services, for both
networks the trips have fixed time but they started only if they are booked
from some residents to a green telephone number.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

14. THE STUDY – PART 2
Project hypothesis
Service logistical bases
Areas covered by the pure demand service
Frequency network covered by car or minibus
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

15. THE STUDY – PART 3
Focus Groups
• After some meeting with Administrator and inhabitants the more important
variables to take into account in the design of the service are:
1. Service fare;
2. Service time and days;
3. Time waiting to pick-up (service level);
4. Service type (the possible ones after previous analysis);
5. Service destination (in order to understand effect of distance and on-
board time).
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

16. THE STUDY – PART 4
Analysis of demand attracted in different service scenarios
A Stated Preference survey was implemented using Experimental Design with
Fractional Orthogonal Design in order to optimize the number of scenarios.
With Full Orthogonal Design The combination of complete
classes of 4 attributes with 4 +4 +4 +3 levels 98 scenarios!!
With Fractional Orthogonal Design The combinations of
classes of 4 attributes with 4 +4 +4 +3 levels 25 scenarios
By means of the Blocking technique we constructed 5 scenarios
for each interview, orthogonal and balanced.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

17. THE STUDY – PART 4
Analysis of demand attracted in different service scenarios
The resulting five questionnaires without dominated scenarios
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

18. THE STUDY – PART 4
Simulation inside GIS
The final part of the methodology merges all the previous ones and introduces
the use of simulation in the geographic field.
Simulation consists in the solution of a complex problem, with different
variable types (geographical, economic, environmental, social ones for
example) that interact closely one with each other so to make impossible the
use of equations or other simple systems without to generate big errors.
Essentially, simulation is the researcher’s response to the inability of computers
to perform integration. Stated more precisely, simulation provides a numerical
approximation to integrals, with different methods offering different properties
and being applicable to different kinds of integrands. Simulation allows
estimation of otherwise intractable models. Practically any model can be
estimated by some form of simulation (Train, 2002)
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

19. THE STUDY – PART 4
Scenarios simulation Simulation consists in the
repeating many times the
extraction of probability
distributions (by means of
automated elaborations
inside the GIS platform) until
to have a statistic
distribution of service costs
to allow, taking into account
the variability of all
phenomenon, the feasibility
of each service scenario and
their comparison.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

20. END
Thank you
Massimiliano Petri
Irene Nicotra
osservatorio.trasporti@provincia.livorno.it
i.nicotra@provincia.livorno.it
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012