ASEAN Projected Transport Energy Demand


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Presented during the U.S.-ASEAN VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY WORKSHOP, 13 May 2013, Jakarta-Indonesia.

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ASEAN Projected Transport Energy Demand

  1. 1. U.S.-ASEAN VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY WORKSHOP13 May 2013Jakarta – IndonesiaWith the Support ofASEAN-US Technical Assistance & Training Facility
  2. 2. Session: IntroductionTitle: Present and Projected TransportationSector Energy Demands in ASEANSpeaker: Beni SuryadiASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)
  3. 3. Content of Presentation:1. ASEAN Energy Outlook 20302. Transportation Sector Energy Demands3. Potential Mitigation Action in TransportSector
  4. 4. 1. ASEAN Energy Outlook 2030**Source: ACE & IEEJ. (2011). The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
  5. 5. 5Primary Energy ConsumptionBAU: Total primary energy consumption increased from 339 MTOE in 1995 to 511 MTOE in 2007or 3.6% per annum, and will growth 4.5% per year from 2007 to reach 1,414 MTOE in 2030.
  6. 6. 6Final Energy ConsumptionIncreased at an annual rate of 3.8% from 241 MTOE in 1995 to 375 MTOE in 2007, growth 4.4%per year from 375 MTOE in 2007 to 1,018 MTOE in 2030, driven by fast growth of transportsector and increasing per capita income.
  7. 7. 7CO2 EmissionHigh annual escalation of demand for Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, will drive CO2emission growth at 5.7% per year.
  8. 8. 8Raised ConcernsRaised Concerns to the "Energy Security" of ASEAN and global"Environmental Stability": ASEAN will continue to be heavily dependent on fossil fuelsespecially oil in the future. The rapid growth of electricity demand will also be a driving force inincreasing use of fossil fuels especially coal. ASEAN needs to improve the energy investment climate so that itwill become more conducive to investors. ASEAN should also continue to strengthen regional cooperationespecially in sharing best practices in energy development andutilization including energy efficiency.
  9. 9. 9Findings and Policy Implications As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals,primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in ASEAN willincrease almost three folds in the BaU scenario – there will beincreasing pressure on energy security and global environmentalstability. If current energy production levels in the region do not increase –the region will have to source out this additional demand fromoutside the region. Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low-carbon technologies and increased shares of non-fossil fuels inpower generation – would be needed to reduce carbon intensityand enhance energy security.
  10. 10. 2. Transport Sector Energy Demands
  11. 11. 11FEC Transport SectorUnder Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), ASEAN is only able to reduce the growth of energydemands in Transportation sector as 4.4% from 5.6% under Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario.
  12. 12. 12Potential Demand ReductionUnder Alternative Policy Scenario, major countries such as Indonesia is able to reduce 24%energy demands in Transport Sector, Malaysia 42% and Thailand 40%.
  13. 13. 3. Potential Mitigation Action**Source: GIZ-SUTIP. Transport and Climate Change in Transport Sector. ESSPA Workshop. Jakarta, 9-2-2012
  14. 14. 14Three Basic Routes The three basic routes to improve energy efficiency*:SHIFTShift to more environmentallyfriendly modes• Transport DemandManagement• Mode shift to Non-Motorized Transport• Mode shift to PublicTransport• …AVOIDAvoid travelor the need to travel• Integration of transportand land-use planning• Smart logistics concepts• …IMPROVEImprove the energy efficiency oftransport modes and vehicletechnology• Low-friction lubricants• Optimal tire pressure• Low Rolling Resistance Tires• Speed limits Eco-Driving(Raising Awareness)• Shift to alternative fuels• …1 2 3
  15. 15. 15Sample of MitigationTraffic generation & Carbon emissions:What aspects should we concentrate on?Example: ShoppingStarting point:A householdrequires a widerange of goods,with varyingfrequency.First decision:How far do youhave to go?2 km10 km?Second decision:Which mode oftransport will you(have to) use???Third decision:Which typeof vehicle + use?Smart infrastructureplanning: Reducesneed for travelling!AVOIDReduce carsize and considerusingalternative fuels!IMPROVEEncourage use ofnon-motorized andpublic transport!SHIFT123
  16. 16. 16Proposed Transport Measures2010: 26 out if 43 countries submitted their proposed Transport measures in NAMA submissionto UNFCC Secretariat.
  17. 17. THANK YOU