In this presentation, Pat Stone with Williston Financial Group gives his National Economic Forecast for 2021. He will go over the changes he is seeing in the real estate market, and also how the current economic and political climate will affect the next year.

1. Patrick F. Stone
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN & FOUNDER
WFG National Title Insurance Co.
Williston Financial Group
Economic & Industry
Perspectives
& The Future
FEBRUARY 2, 2021
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2. FEBRUARY 2, 2021 PATRICK F. STONE ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2
CURRENT MARKET
CONDITIONS

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Source: Univ Of Michigan, Conference Board

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Source: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Jan. 16, 2021 4.771 million

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Q4 2020 ESTIMATES RELEASED: JAN 28, 2021

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Source: BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Q4 2020 ESTIMATES RELEASED: JAN 28, 2021

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
We Currently Forecast 2021 GDP Growth of +6.6% on a Full-
Year Basis, Significantly Higher Than Consensus Expectations

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Source: SIBORBLOG.COM

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PANDEMIC
IMPACT

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Source: CORNELL UNIVERSITY ILR SCHOOL

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Source: NYT

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Source: WASHINGTON POST

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Source: OPPORTUNITY INSIGHTS
In the United States, as of October 22 2020, employment rates among workers in the
middle wage quartiles decreased by 4.4% compared to January 2020
(not seasonally adjusted).

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Source: OPPORTUNITY INSIGHTS
In the United States, as of October 22 2020, employment rates in professional and
business services decreased by 2.2% compared to January 2020
(not seasonally adjusted).

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Source: MBA

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
Construction Spending Fell Relatively Modestly in the Initial Stages of the Pandemic

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Source: US CENSUS BUREAU

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
Households Have Accumulated a Significant Amount of Savings Through the Recession

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
Spending Has Declined in the Most-Virus Sensitive Sectors, but Has Remained Near
the Pandemic Peak for Most Services Categories

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: GOLDMAN SACS
Consumer Spending on Hotels and Food Services Has Declined a Bit, But
Spending Is Little Changed in Other Categories

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Source: NEW YORK TIMES
NEXT RELEASE FEB 5, 2021
DEC
2020

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Source: BUREAU OF LABOR AND STATISTICS

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FOREBEARANCE &
DELINQUENCIES

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Source: MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY

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Source: URBAN INSTITUTE

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by Ellie Mae's AllRegs® Market Clarity®

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Source: MBA FORECAST
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by Ellie Mae's AllRegs® Market Clarity® Data prior to 3/31/2011 was
generated using less frequent and less complete data measured at 6-month intervals interpolated in the months
between for charting purposes.

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: MBA

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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Source: NY FED
2020 Q3
Student Loan: $1.55 T
Other: $0.42 T
Credit Card: $0.81 T
Auto Loan: $1.36 T

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Source: NATIONAL MORTGAGE NEWS

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FEDERAL DEFICIT
AND
DEBT GROWTH

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: BLOOMBERG

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Source: THE ECONOMIST

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: GOLDMAN SACS
Record Debt Issuance Over the Last Year Is Less Concerning Because Corporates
Used Almost All the Funds Raised to Bolster Cash Positions

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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ASSET
BUBBLES

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Source: longtermtrends.net
S&P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL
S&P 500 share of total market value, by sector

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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POLITICAL
CONCERNS

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Source: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: FORBES

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PREDICTIONS FOR 2021
 ECONOMY WILL EXPAND +6%
 MORTGAGE RATES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
2.8% TO 3.2%
 HOME SALES WILL TOP 2020, AND BE STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR
 HOME PRICES WILL GO UP 5-7%
 BUILDER ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE
 FORECLOSURES WILL INCREASE, BUT NOT TO A
THREATENING LEVEL

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
US Vaccine Demand Increased in November

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Source: FRED
1.09
FEB 1, 2021

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Source: STATISTA
Prediction of 10 year U.S. Treasury note yield from
August 2020 to August 2021

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Source: STATISTA
Number of existing homes sold in the United States from 2005 to 2021
(in million units)

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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Source: GREEN STREET ADVISORS
PROPERTY INSIGHTS REPORT 10.16.2020

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Source: WALL ST JOURNAL

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Source: WALL STREET JOURNAL

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PREDICTIONS FOR 2021
 ECONOMY WILL EXPAND +6%
 MORTGAGE RATES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
2.8% TO 3.2%
 HOME SALES WILL TOP 2020, AND BE STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR
 HOME PRICES WILL GO UP 5-7%
 BUILDER ACTIVITY WILL ACCELERATE
 FORECLOSURES WILL INCREASE, BUT NOT TO A
THREATENING LEVEL

88. FEBRUARY 2, 2021 PATRICK F. STONE ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 88
Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
A Higher Threshold for Herd Immunity from Mutations
Would Delay the Consumption Boom

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
Our Monthly GDP Path Incorporates a Near-Term Slowdown and a
Reacceleration Following Vaccination

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS
Roughly 3% of Total Consumer Spending Comes from Older
People in Virus-Sensitive Activities

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Source: NATIONAL MORTGAGE NEWS

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Source: NATIONAL MORTGAGE NEWS

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THANK
YOU