In this presentation given on 4/30/2020, Pat Stone with Williston Financial Group gives his economic perspectives during the COVID Pandemic and how it's affecting the housing market.

1. PATRICK F. STONE
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN & FOUNDER
WFG NATIONAL TITLE INSURANCE CO
WILLISTON FINANCIAL GROUP
APRIL 30, 2020
ECONOMIC & INDUSTRY
PERSPECTIVES &THE FUTURE

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 2
ANALOGS OR PRIOR
EVENTSTHAT HELP
PROVIDE PERSPECTIVE

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 3
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 4
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020
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SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020
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SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Exhibit 3: Jobs Returning to the Same Manufacturing, Construction, and
Retail Establishments Drove Nearly Half of the Sharp Payroll Rebound in
1983

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 7
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 8
WE ARE IN MUCH
BETTER SHAPETHAN
2007-2009

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 9Source: WALL ST JOURNAL

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 10
Source: MBA

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 11
Source: BLACK KNIGHT WHITEPAPER

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GDP AND ECONOMIC
FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS

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Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 14
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: BLS
Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 17
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 19
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020
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SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
An even deeper trough
US real GDP annualized quarterly growth, pp

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 21
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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AREAS HARDEST HIT
BY PANDEMIC INDUCED
RECESSION

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST JOURNAL

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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Source: GOLDMAN SACHS

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 27Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 28Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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DEBT

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 30
Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Exhibit 2: The Fiscal Response Will Result in a Steep Increase in the
Deficit in FY2020

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 33
Source: BLOOMBERG

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SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS
Exhibit 4: Treasury Will Likely Need to Borrow $3 Trillion for the
Remainder of 2020

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Source: WALL ST. JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST JOURNAL

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Source: WALL ST JOURNAL

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REAL ESTATE

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Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Number of Homes for Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended

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Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Days on Market

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Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Average Price For Sale and Sold

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Source: OWNITPORTLAND.COM
Months of Inventory

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 43Source: ZILLOW
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
Portland Market Overview
Data through Mar 31, 2020
MARCH 2020 CONDO $307K
MARCH 2020 SINGLE-FAMILY $465K

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Source: think-Portland.com
March Real Estate Market Analysis

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Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff

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Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 47
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Social Distancing andTransactions

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SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
TechnologyTools

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SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Buyer Interest

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APRIL 30, 2020 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 2020 50
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Buyer Behavior

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SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Seller Behavior

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SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Seller Behavior

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SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Seller Behavior

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Source: REDFIN

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Source: REDFIN

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Source: REDFIN
Speedy Sales Are on the Decline

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Source: REDFIN
New Listings Continue to Tank
There were 48,965 new-home listings last week, down about 50% from a year ago. That
marks a significant pullback from the 33% decline we reported at the beginning of April.

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Source: REDFIN

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Source: REDFIN

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Source: ZILLOW

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Source: ZILLOW

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Source: ZILLOW

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Source: SHOWINGTIME.COM

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Source: SHOWINGTIME.COM

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Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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CONCERNS
AND
OUTLOOK

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Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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QUESTIONSTHAT DRIVETO
OUTCOME HOW LONG UNTIL THE HEALTH MANDATES LIFTED
 HOW DEEP IS THE CURRENT SHOCK TO THE
ECONOMY
 WHAT IS GOVERNMENT DOING TO SOFTEN BLOW
 HOW FRAGILE/HEALTHY WAS ECONOMY WHEN
PANDEMIC HIT
 WILL THERE BE PERMANENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

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FORM OFTHE RECOVERY
 “V”
 “U”
 “W”
 “L”
 OR ?

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Week of March 8th: 106 staff
Week of April 10th: 450 staff

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Source: WALL ST JOURNAL

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CONCLUSION
 ECONOMY WAS IN GREAT SHAPE
 AMERICAN CONSUMER WAS INVERY GOOD
SHAPE
 STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
 THIS IS A MAN MADE RECESSION
 KEY QUESTION IS HOW FASTWE RE-EMERGE
 REAL ESTATE WILL BE ONE OFTHE HEALTHIER
SECTORS

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THANK
YOU