Overcoming Imposible Projects

1. Overcoming Impossible Projects
By
Orlando Moreno, PMP
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 1

2. How Many Projects Fail?
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3. Standish Group, 1998
• 26% Successful (on time/on budget)
• 46% “Challenged” (late, over budget, etc.)
• 28% Cancelled
“75% of All Projects Fail”
Behind the numbers:
• Software Development Projects, averaging $2M
• Reported by CIOs, IT Managers, CTOs
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 3

4. Real Projects: The Truth Is Out There
Projects “Fail” for Three Reasons:
1. The Objective (Scope) Is Actually Impossible.
2. The Project Is Overconstrained.
3. The Project Is Poorly Planned and Executed.
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 4

5. Project Risk Management
Depends on Project Planning to:
• Identify (and Avoid) Truly Impossible Projects.
• Develop Negotiation Data for Overconstrained
Projects.
• Eliminate Poorly Planned and Executed Projects.
Two Sides of the Same Coin:
You Cannot Manage What Might
Go Wrong Until You Know What
“Going Right” Looks Like.
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 5

6. PERIL Database
Project Experience Risk Information Library
• Over 200 Project Records
• Primarily IT and Product Development Projects
• World-wide
• All Risk Impacts Normalized to Schedule Slippage
Americas Asia Eur/ME Total
IT/Solution 67 25 13 105
Product
Development 56 45 16 117
Total 123 70 29 222
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7. PERIL Database Risk Types
Risk Types:
• Scope (Changes, Defects)
• Resources (People, Outsourcing, Money)
• Schedule (Delay, Dependency, Estimates)
Cumulative Average Impact
Count Impact (weeks) (weeks)
Scope 76 478 6.3
Schedule 82 306 3.7
Resource 64 361 5.6
Total 222 1145 5.2
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 7

8. of
Weeks
Impact
Project
Orlando Moreno
100
150
200
250
300
50
0
Scope
Change
Scope
Defect
Resource
People
Schedule
Delay
Resource
Outsourcing
omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498
Schedule
Dependency
Schedule
Estimates
PERIL Relative Risk Severity
Resource
Money
8

9. PERIL Scope Risks
• Changes (Scope Creep, Gaps, Dependencies)
• Defects (Hardware, Software, Integration)
Cumulative Average Impact
Scope Count Impact (weeks) (weeks)
Change 46 280 6.1
Defect 30 198 6.6
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 9

10. PERIL Scope Risk Severity
200
160
Weeks
of 120
Project
Impact 80
40
0
Gap
Change
Defect
Software
Integration
Defect
Hardware
Dependency
Defect
Change
Scope Creep
Change
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 10

11. Scope Risk Remedies
• Scope Planning
• Work Breakdown Structure
• Change Control
• Worst Case and System Analysis
• Evolutionary or Cyclic Development Methods
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12. PERIL Resource Risks
• People (Loss, Temporary Loss, Late Start, Queuing)
• Outsourcing (Delay, Turnover, Late Start)
• Money
Cumulative Average Impact
Resource Count Impact (weeks) (weeks)
People 45 194 4.3
Outsourcing 17 109 6.4
Money 2 58 29.0
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 12

13. of
Weeks
Impact
Project
Orlando Moreno
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
Outsourcing
Delay
Money
Limitation
People
Loss
People
Late start
People
Queuing
People
Temp. loss
omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498
People
Motivation
Outsourcing
Late start
Outsourcing
Turnover
PERIL Resource Risk Severity
People
13
Conflict

14. Resource Risk Remedies
• Resource Planning
• Project Staffing—by Name
• Sponsorship
• Contracting Competence
• Co-Location
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 14

15. PERIL Schedule Risks
• Delay (Hardware, Parts, Decisions, Information)
• Dependency (Projects, Support, Other)
• Estimates (Judgment, Learning Curve, Deadline)
Cumulative Average Impact
Schedule Count Impact (weeks) (weeks)
Delay 46 134 2.9
Dependency 21 102 4.9
Estimates 15 70 4.7
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 15

16. of
Weeks
Impact
Project
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
Orlando Moreno
Dependency
Project
Delay
Parts
Estimation
Judgment
Delay
Decision
Delay
Hardware
Dependency
Support
omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 Estimation
Learning
Delay
Information
Estimation
PERIL Schedule Risk Severity
Deadline
Dependency
16
Other

17. Schedule Risk Remedies
• Dependency Analysis
• Interface Analysis
• Estimation Methods and Metrics
• Worst Case Analysis
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18. PERT Schedule Analysis
Program
Evaluation and
Review
Technique
0 to tm t e tp
Duration 1% 50% 99%
But… What About Parkinson’s Law?
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 18

19. Worst Case Schedule Analysis
0 tm te tw
Duration to
“Worst Case” Estimating
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20. Project Risk Management
• Use Qualitative (and When Appropriate,
Quantitative) Analysis to Assess Risk Severity.
• Avoid or Mitigate All Severe Preventable Risks.
• Transfer or Establish Contingency Plans for All
Other Severe Risks.
• Reduce Project Size, Complexity.
• Establish Reserves for Schedule and/or Budget
Based on Risk Analysis.
• Negotiate Project Objectives Consistent with
Credible Plans.
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 20

21. So…
If Planning and Analysis Show Your Project Is Impossible:
• Change It, Avoid It, or Stop It, Early.
If Planning Shows the Project Is Overconstrained:
• Negotiate the Constraints.
• Set Appropriate Reserves.
Schedule Resources
• Manage Risks.
If Planning is Poor, or Not Done:
• You are part of the “75%.”
Scope
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 21

22. Questions? Orlando A. Moreno
omoreno@hotmail.com
408.656.2498
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 22

23. “One of the things we always like to remind
ourselves before we do any job was to
expect the unexpected. Right? Right.
Always sounds like good advice. Except of
course, if you are expecting the unexpected,
well, then it really isn’t unexpected anymore,
is it? And that leaves you vulnerable to the
truly unexpected, because you are not
expecting it.”
—Bruce Willis’s character in Bandits (2001)
Orlando Moreno omoreno@hotmail.com 408.656.2498 23