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Lviv PM Club Руслан Середюк "Ризики в управлінні проектами"

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Lviv PM Club Руслан Середюк "Ризики в управлінні проектами"

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Lviv PM Club Руслан Середюк "Ризики в управлінні проектами"

  1. 1. Ruslan Seredyuk RISKS IN SOFTWARE
  2. 2. PROJECTS SUCCESS RATE Failed 18% Challenged 43% Successful 39% Projects Chaos Report 2013 by Stabd
  3. 3. RECENT EVIDENCE • Obama Care - only 1% of people managed to successfully enroll with the site in its first week of operation • The Surrey Integrated Reporting Enterprise Network (SIREN). Not fit for purpose. Team was not capable to finish the project. (15M GBP failure) • Digital Media Initiative (By 2013, the project was judged to be obsolete (as much cheaper commercial off the shelf alternatives by then existed) and was scrapped by BBC management. (98M GBP) • Expeditionary Combat Support System . US Air Force. No significant capabilities ready on time; would have cost $1.1bn more just to get to 1/4 of the original scope. (1.1 bn USD ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_failed_and_overbudget_custom_sof tware_projects
  4. 4. BUT WHY IN SOFTWARE
  5. 5. RISKS ARE INEVITABLE IN SOFTWARE. WHY??? • Misunderstanding of requirements • Lack of top management commitment and support • Lack of adequate user involvement • Failure to gain user commitment • Failure to manage end user expectation • Changes to requirements • Lack of an effective project management methodology Top Ten Lists of Software Project Risks : Evidence from the Literature Survey, 2011
  6. 6. WHY WE DON’T DO RISKS MANAGEMENT • Boring/Hard to do • Does not work • We should think positively toward the project goals  • The data needed to do risk management effectively is lacking. • Agile handles risks as a part of methodology • One person can not manage risks effectively • People minimize the need for risk management by the absence of evidence (nothing bad has happened yet). • We don’t really what is a RISK
  7. 7. WHAT IS A RISK
  8. 8. TYPE OF RISKS • known known – general software development risks • known unknowns - project specific risks • unknown unknowns - “Black Swans”
  9. 9. KNOWN KNOWS • Misunderstanding of requirements • Lack of top management commitment and support • Lack of adequate user involvement • Failure to gain user commitment • Failure to manage end user expectation • Changes to requirements • Lack of an effective project management methodology
  10. 10. KNOWN KNOWS. WHAT WE CAN DO ? • Be prepared, they will come • Identify using checklists (top 5 - Demarko , top 10 Bohem, taxonomy method) • Have a risk response plan in place • Put avoidance strategies into estimates • Have contingency plans for mitigation
  11. 11. BOHEM CHEKLIST. TOP 10 • 1 Personnel Shortfalls - avoid • 2 Unrealistic Schedules and Budgets - mitigate • 3 Developing the wrong software functions - avoid • 4 Developing the wrong user interface - avoid • 5 Gold-plating - avoid • 6 Continuing stream of requirements changes - mitigate • 7 Shortfalls in externally-performed tasks – avoid, transfer • 8 Shortfalls in externally-furnished components – avoid, transfer • 9 Real-time performance shortfalls – avoid, mitigate • 10 Straining computer science capabilities - avoid
  12. 12. TAXONOMY BASED RISK IDENTIFICATION Software Engineering InstituteSoftware Engineering Institute Software Engineering Institute
  13. 13. KNOWN UNKNOWNS • Project/product specific risks – new business area • New technology (e.g. Hadoop) • Team from Ukraine , cultural differences • High speed/performance objectives
  14. 14. KNOWN UNKNOWNS. WHAT WE CAN DO • Be prepared, they MAY come • Identify using brainstorming, Crawford Slip method, Weekly Meetings, Documentation analysis etc. • Have a risk response plan in place • Put avoidance strategies into estimates • Have contingency plans/reserves for risk management
  15. 15. KNOWN UNKNOWNS. WHAT WE CAN DO
  16. 16. UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS • 50% of your team decided to quit • Virus broken source code repo • Server crashed with no backups
  17. 17. BLACK SWANS. AMOUNT VS DAMAGE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Amount Damage Black Swans Other risks According to Tom Kendrick most severe 20% of the risks are black swans. Black swans bring 50% of the damage
  18. 18. UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS. WHAT WE CAN DO • Be prepared they may occur • Have a reserve (100% from initial risks estimates) • Don’t get shocked with the risk • Have a swot team to handle that • Enjoy
  19. 19. WHERE ELSE I CAN LOOK FOR RISKS User 18% Requirement 21% Complexity 5% Planning and Control 34% Team 11% Organizational Environment 11% User Requirement Complexity Planning and Control Team Organizational Environment
  20. 20. CONCLUSION • Don’t be afraid of risks • Identify as soon as possible • Use checklists and people around for risks identification and management
  21. 21. SOMETHING TO READ

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