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OGDCL

    Equity Research

Syed Sanakhawan Hussain
Investment Rationale
               Stock Summary`                                 Key Investment Risks
12M High/low                         186/128          Commodity price risk
Ticker                                OGDCL           Exchange rate risk
No. of shares (000)                 4,300,928         Credit risk (circular debt)
Market cap (000)                     769,909
                                                      Exploration & Drilling risk
12M Average daily volume             681,641
                                                      Security concerns

                      1M     3M         12M
Absolute%             4.6    19.0       43.0       A key plank of OGDC’s investment case
Relative index        0.7    5.1        5.7        is its three‐year volume CAGR of 13%
                                                   making it one of the fastest growing
Abs. (PKR)            8.1    29.3       55.0       mid‐cap Asian E&Ps


         OGDC’s investment in a PKR82bn energy bond via conversion of its
         overdue receivables not only offers earnings upside, but also raises possibility of
         higher cash payout in 2013
Investment Rationale
                          Favorable
                        Macroeconomics
                          indicators
           Attractive                    Leadership in the
           Valuation                        E&P sector




                                                    Impressive
Positive sector
   outlook                BUY                        financial
                                                   Performance
Sector Analysis
 • Sector revenue growth – 25%
 • Bottom line growth (PAT) – 40%
 • Growth drivers
   –   Higher Oil prices
   –   Exploration cost reduction – more successful drilling
 • Year end expectations bright
   –   Excessive cash balances
   –   Healthy dividends announcements
 • Major new discoveries
 • E&P sector outperformed the broader index by 9%
   during the year
Leadership In the E&P sector
     •   Accounts for 52% of the total Pakistan’s recoverable oil reserves

     •    Accounts for 37% of the total Pakistan's recoverable Gas reserves

     •    Accounts for 56% of the total Pakistan Oil production

     •   Accounts for 22% of the total Pakistan Gas production

     •   Accounts for 22% of the total Pakistan exploration acreage


                                                       Market share
60

50

40

30
                                                                                                                      Market share
20

10

0
         Oil reserves          Gas reserves          Oil production           Gas production   Exploaration Acreage
Favorable Macroeconomic Indicators
 • Rising Oil Prices                     • Energy return on energy invested




     Exchange rate depreciation has had a major positive impact on OGDCL
     earnings, and further depreciation will further strengthen the company’s
     bottomline
Impressive Financial Performance
 • Sales Analysis                                                    Sales (billion
   – Sales grew at a CAGR of 11.9%            300
     (2007-2012) and is expected to grow      250
     at the current rate in the medium-       200
     term
                                              150
   – Hike in Oil prices is the largest        100
                                                                                                   Sales (billion

     contributor to OGDCL’s topline
                                              50
   – Successful exploration & growing           0
     demand for energy are major drivers            2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
     for future growth


      OGDCL sales to reach PKR 277.2 billion in FY15 growing at a CAGR of 11.9%

                          Sales revenue figures PKR(bn)

                2010      2011       2012           2013          2014            2015
      OGDCL     142.57    155.63     197.84         221.38        247.72          277.20
Impressive Financial Performance
      • Profitability Analysis                                                80
                                                                              75
                                                                              70
                          FY11       FY12      FY13        FY14               65
13.53% EPS CAGR           14.77      22.53     25.57       29.03              60
                                                                              55
FY07-FY14
                                                                              50
                                                                              45
                                                                              40
11.9% Revenue             155.63     197.84 221.38 247.72
                                                                              35
CAGR FY07-FY14                                                                30
                                                                                   2007       2008       2009   2010     2011      2012

                           Net Income
160                                                                                       Net Profit Margin      EBITDA Margin to sales

140
120
100
 80
                                                                                   The company is 100% equity
 60
                                                       Net Income (billion)
                                                                                   financed and its unleveraged
 40                                                                                nature of funding makes it a solid
 20
                                                                                   long-term investment
  0
      2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Impressive Financial Performance
    Liquidity/Investment Analysis
                                 12

    • Unleveraged funding        10

                                 8

                                 6

                                 4

                                 2

                                 0
                                      2007    2008           2009    2010      2011            2012

                                                     Current ratio          dividend yield ratio


        2012A   2013E       2014F        Confidence on Dividend growth:
DPS PKR 7.5     12          15           •Conversion of overdue receivables with energy
                                         bonds
D/Y %   4       7           8
                                         •Energy bonds (6M kibor+1%) > Receivables (0%)
                                         •More cash on the balance sheet
Attractive Valuation
                                                  Price Sensitivity
  Assumptions                                          Price Sensitivity

  Risk Free rate          10.5%   T   350
                                  a
                                      300
  Risk premium            6%      r
                                  g   250
  Beta                    1.28    e
                                      200
                                  t
  Cost of equity          18%         150
                                  P
                                  r
  Weight of Equity        1       i
                                      100

                                  c    50
  WACC                    18%     e     0
  Dividend growth rate    11%
                                                               WACC

  Current Price (9/10/2012)            PKR176.5
  Target Price 31st Dec 2012           PKR192

 The target price as of 31st Dec gives an upside
 potential of 8.8%
The “RISK” factor

    Thank you!

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Ogdcl equity analysis

  • 1. OGDCL Equity Research Syed Sanakhawan Hussain
  • 2. Investment Rationale Stock Summary` Key Investment Risks 12M High/low 186/128 Commodity price risk Ticker OGDCL Exchange rate risk No. of shares (000) 4,300,928 Credit risk (circular debt) Market cap (000) 769,909 Exploration & Drilling risk 12M Average daily volume 681,641 Security concerns 1M 3M 12M Absolute% 4.6 19.0 43.0 A key plank of OGDC’s investment case Relative index 0.7 5.1 5.7 is its three‐year volume CAGR of 13% making it one of the fastest growing Abs. (PKR) 8.1 29.3 55.0 mid‐cap Asian E&Ps OGDC’s investment in a PKR82bn energy bond via conversion of its overdue receivables not only offers earnings upside, but also raises possibility of higher cash payout in 2013
  • 3. Investment Rationale Favorable Macroeconomics indicators Attractive Leadership in the Valuation E&P sector Impressive Positive sector outlook BUY financial Performance
  • 4. Sector Analysis • Sector revenue growth – 25% • Bottom line growth (PAT) – 40% • Growth drivers – Higher Oil prices – Exploration cost reduction – more successful drilling • Year end expectations bright – Excessive cash balances – Healthy dividends announcements • Major new discoveries • E&P sector outperformed the broader index by 9% during the year
  • 5. Leadership In the E&P sector • Accounts for 52% of the total Pakistan’s recoverable oil reserves • Accounts for 37% of the total Pakistan's recoverable Gas reserves • Accounts for 56% of the total Pakistan Oil production • Accounts for 22% of the total Pakistan Gas production • Accounts for 22% of the total Pakistan exploration acreage Market share 60 50 40 30 Market share 20 10 0 Oil reserves Gas reserves Oil production Gas production Exploaration Acreage
  • 6. Favorable Macroeconomic Indicators • Rising Oil Prices • Energy return on energy invested Exchange rate depreciation has had a major positive impact on OGDCL earnings, and further depreciation will further strengthen the company’s bottomline
  • 7.
  • 8. Impressive Financial Performance • Sales Analysis Sales (billion – Sales grew at a CAGR of 11.9% 300 (2007-2012) and is expected to grow 250 at the current rate in the medium- 200 term 150 – Hike in Oil prices is the largest 100 Sales (billion contributor to OGDCL’s topline 50 – Successful exploration & growing 0 demand for energy are major drivers 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 for future growth OGDCL sales to reach PKR 277.2 billion in FY15 growing at a CAGR of 11.9% Sales revenue figures PKR(bn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 OGDCL 142.57 155.63 197.84 221.38 247.72 277.20
  • 9. Impressive Financial Performance • Profitability Analysis 80 75 70 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 65 13.53% EPS CAGR 14.77 22.53 25.57 29.03 60 55 FY07-FY14 50 45 40 11.9% Revenue 155.63 197.84 221.38 247.72 35 CAGR FY07-FY14 30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Net Income 160 Net Profit Margin EBITDA Margin to sales 140 120 100 80 The company is 100% equity 60 Net Income (billion) financed and its unleveraged 40 nature of funding makes it a solid 20 long-term investment 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 10. Impressive Financial Performance Liquidity/Investment Analysis 12 • Unleveraged funding 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Current ratio dividend yield ratio 2012A 2013E 2014F Confidence on Dividend growth: DPS PKR 7.5 12 15 •Conversion of overdue receivables with energy bonds D/Y % 4 7 8 •Energy bonds (6M kibor+1%) > Receivables (0%) •More cash on the balance sheet
  • 11. Attractive Valuation Price Sensitivity Assumptions Price Sensitivity Risk Free rate 10.5% T 350 a 300 Risk premium 6% r g 250 Beta 1.28 e 200 t Cost of equity 18% 150 P r Weight of Equity 1 i 100 c 50 WACC 18% e 0 Dividend growth rate 11% WACC Current Price (9/10/2012) PKR176.5 Target Price 31st Dec 2012 PKR192 The target price as of 31st Dec gives an upside potential of 8.8%
  • 12. The “RISK” factor Thank you!