Social contacts are a key transmission channel of infectious diseases spread by the respiratory or close-contact route, such as COVID-19. There is no evidence, however, on the question of whether the nature and the organisation of work affect the spread of COVID-19 in different countries. I have developed a methodology to measure country-specific levels of occupational exposure to contagion driven by social contacts. I combined six indicators based on Occupation Information Network (O*NET) and the European Working Condition Survey (EWCS) data. I then applied them to 26 European countries, and found substantial cross-country differences in levels of exposure to contagion in comparable occupations. The resulting country-level measures of levels of exposure to contagion (excluding health professions) predict the growth in COVID-19 cases, and the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the early stage of pandemic (up to four weeks after the 100th case). The relationship between levels of occupational exposure to contagion and the spread of COVID-19 is particularly strong for workers aged 45-64. I found that 20-25% of the cross-country variance in numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths can be attributed to cross-country differences in levels of occupational exposure to contagion in European countries. My findings are robust to controlling for the stringency of containment policies, such as lockdowns and school closures. They are also driven by country-specific patterns of social contacts at work, rather than by occupational structures. Thus, I conclude that measuring workplace interactions may help to predict the next waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

1. O c c u p at i o n a l ex p o s u re to co nta g i o n
a n d t h e s p re a d o f COV I D - 1 9
i n E u ro p e
P i o t r L e w a n d o w s k i ( I B S , I Z A )

2. Could the labour markets structures and the organisation of work in various countries have
contributed to the transmission of COVID-19 in Europe?
• Social contacts are a key transmission channel of infectious diseases spread by the
respiratory or close-contact route, such as COVID-19.
• Workplace interactions constitute the majority of social contacts among people of working
ages.
• But jobs and countries may differ in the intensity of interactions at work.
➢ I study the occupational exposure to contagion at work, and assess the contribution
of this exposure to the spread of COVID-19 in European countries.

3. I create a country-specific index of occupational exposure to contagion
I use six indicators based on two data sources:
1. exposure to disease or infections (O*NET)
2. physical proximity at work (O*NET)
3. dealing with clients, pupils, or patients (EWCS)
4. working in public spaces (EWCS)
5. working at clients’ premises (EWCS)
6. not working from home (EWCS)
The index ranges from 0 to 1 – higher value means larger exposure to contagion

4. Health, sales, personal and protective services workers are the most exposed to contagion.
Farmers, machine operators and ICT professionals are the least exposed.
Note: 0 represents the value for Chief executives, senior officials and legislators

5. Workers in Southern European and Nordic countries are the most exposed,
workers in Central Eastern European countries are the least exposed to contagion at work
Note: 0 represents the value for Germany

6. Let’s create country-level measures of workers’ exposure to contagion
1. Average level of occupational exposure to contagion
2. Share of workers who are highly exposed (above the European median)
I exclude health workers, and use 2018 data so:
• my index is not related to public choices related to health care
• is plausibly exogenous to the spread of COVID-19 in particular countries

7. The growth in the number of COVID-19 cases was faster
in countries with higher occupational exposure to contagion
Note: excluding Health professionals (ISCO 22) and Health associate professionals (ISCO 32).
Source: own calculations on the basis of EU-LFS, EWCS, O*NET and John Hopkins CSEE data.
RO
PL
EE
SI
HU
CZ
FI
DE
BE
BG
SK
LU
AT
HR
PT
IENL
DK
FR
IT
NO
CH
IS
GB
ES
SE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Share of jobs highly exposed to contagion
Daily growth in cases over 7 days after
the 100th case in each country
ROPL
EE
SI
HU
CZ
FI
DE
BE
BGSK
LU
AT
HR
PT
IE
NL
DK
FRIT
NO
CH
IS
GB
ES
SE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Share of jobs highly exposed to contagion
Daily growth in cases over 28 days after the
100th case in each country

8. Higher occupational exposure to contagion is associated with a faster spread of COVID-19,
also if the stringency of containment policies is controlled for
Note: Explanatory variables are standardised. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Standard errors in parentheses.
Source: own estimations on the basis of EU-LFS, EWCS, O*NET John Hopkins, CSEE and OxCGRT data.
The estimated effect of the share of workers highly exposed to contagion on the spread of COVID-19
7 days
after the 100th case
14 days
after the 100th case
21 days
after the 100th case
28 days
after the 100th case
Growth rate of
cases
0.032*
(0.018)
0.033**
(0.012)
0.026**
(0.011)
0.022**
(0.009)
No. of deaths
2.9
(1.7)
33.1*
(19.1)
209.3*
(109.1)
696.9*
(354.6)
Containment policy
controls
Yes Yes Yes Yes
No. of countries 26 26 26 26

9. 20-25% of the cross-country variance in cases and in deaths from COVID-19 can be attributed
to the cross-country differences in the occupational exposure to contagion
Source: own estimations on the basis of EU-LFS, EWCS, O*NET John Hopkins, CSEE and OxCGRT data.
Regression-based decompositions of the cross-country variance, by days after 100th case in each country
Share of highly exposed workers Containment policies
0%
10%
20%
30%
7 days 14 days 21 days 28 days
%ofvariance
COVID-19 deaths
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
7 days 14 days 21 days 28 days
%ofvariance
COVID-19 cases

10. The positive effects of the occupational exposure to contagion on COVID-19 cases and deaths
• Are the strongest for the exposure among workers aged 45+
• Are driven by the country-specific patterns of social contacts at work
rather than by occupational structures
• Cannot be explained by the differences in population density nor GDP per capita

11. Occupational exposure to contagion at work could have contributed to
the spread of COVID-19 in European countries
• COVID-19 incubation period can last a week or more, while the time from symptom onset to
death can be around two weeks.
• The early trajectory of epidemic was determined by infections passed when
the number of cases was still low and social distancing not implemented in Europe.
• Differences in the nature of work in European countries might have contributed to
disparities in the number of these infections

12. Lewandowski P., 2020, Occupational exposure to contagion
and the spread of COVID-19 in Europe,
IBS Working Paper 02/2020
https://ibs.org.pl/en/publications/occupational-exposure-to-
contagion-and-the-spread-of-covid-19-in-europe/
Piotr Lewandowski
piotr.lewandowski@ibs.org.pl
www.ibs.org.pl
@ibs_warsaw
@ibs_thinktank